基于地理加权回归的小麦测土配方施肥效果空间分析
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摘要
测土配方施肥增产、增收效果的空间分异状况,是因地制宜校正配方施肥技术参数、优化肥料配方的科学依据。收集整理南阳市296个小麦测土配方施肥"三区示范"田间试验点数据,在施肥量空间化估算和小麦产量—施肥量地理加权回归(GWR)模型构建的基础上,分析评价不同空间位置测土配方施肥相较于传统施肥模式的增产、增收效果。结果显示,两种施肥模式下研究区小麦产量空间分布格局相似,测土配方施肥将小麦产量由传统施肥模式的5970kg·hm~(-2)提升至6672kg·hm~(-2),平均增产率为11.76%(各县区市增产率幅度为7.04～17.91%),平均增收1 232 Yuan·hm~(-2)(各县区市增收幅度为713～1 672 Yuan·hm~(-2))。研究结果表明,测土配方施肥效果空间分异明显,增产、增收较高的区域分布在南召县、西峡县、镇平县、新野县和社旗县,内乡县、唐河县和桐柏县的某些区域存在减产、减收现象;测土配方施肥虽然可以在总体上提高研究区小麦产量,但本区小麦产量的空间分布格局主要受立地条件、土壤条件和管理水平等区域性耕地基础地力要素制约。
【Objective】This study was conducted to investigate spatial variation of the effect of soiltesting-based-formulated-fertilization of wheat, as compared with conventional fertilization, in an attempt to provide a scientific basis for adjusting technical parameters and optimizing fertilizer formula specifically for a farmland.【Method】Data were collected from 296 field experiment sites set for demonstration of soil-testing-based-formulated-fertilization(STBFF) of wheat in Nanyang city for analysis and evaluation of effects of STBFF on yield and income of wheat at various locations as compared with conventional fertilization, based on spatialized estimation of fertilization rate and modeling of geographically weighted regression(GWR) for relationship between wheat yield and fertilization rate. The spatial variation of the effect of STBFF of wheat, embodied by increment in wheat yield and income, was evaluated on the basis of the prediction of wheat yield and analysis of its spatial distribution pattern. 【Result】 The spatial distribution pattern of wheat yield of the STBFF was similar to that of the conventional fertilization.The wheat yield was increased from 5 970 kg·hm~(-2) to 6 672 kg·hm~(-2), when conventional fertilization was converted into STBFF, with an average increment of wheat yield being 11.76%(the increment varied with the county in the range of 7.04%～17.91%) and an average increment of income being 1 232 Yuan·hm~(-2)(the increment varied with the county in the range of 713 Yuan·hm~(-2)～1 672 Yuan·hm~(-2)). 【Conclusion】 Spatial variation of the effects was quite obvious. The regions enjoying high increments of wheat yield and income were distributed mainly in Nanzhao, Xixia, Zhenping, Xinye and Sheqi counties, however, some regions in Neixiang, Tanghe and Tongbai counties suffered negative effects. Although STBFF can improve generally yield of the wheat in Nanyang city, the spatial distribution pattern of wheat yield in this area is affected by some factors like physical conditions, soil conditions and agricultural management level of a region.
【Objective】This study was conducted to investigate spatial variation of the effect of soiltesting-based-formulated-fertilization of wheat, as compared with conventional fertilization, in an attempt to provide a scientific basis for adjusting technical parameters and optimizing fertilizer formula specifically for a farmland.【Method】Data were collected from 296 field experiment sites set for demonstration of soil-testing-based-formulated-fertilization(STBFF) of wheat in Nanyang city for analysis and evaluation of effects of STBFF on yield and income of wheat at various locations as compared with conventional fertilization, based on spatialized estimation of fertilization rate and modeling of geographically weighted regression(GWR) for relationship between wheat yield and fertilization rate. The spatial variation of the effect of STBFF of wheat, embodied by increment in wheat yield and income, was evaluated on the basis of the prediction of wheat yield and analysis of its spatial distribution pattern. 【Result】 The spatial distribution pattern of wheat yield of the STBFF was similar to that of the conventional fertilization.The wheat yield was increased from 5 970 kg·hm~(-2) to 6 672 kg·hm~(-2), when conventional fertilization was converted into STBFF, with an average increment of wheat yield being 11.76%(the increment varied with the county in the range of 7.04%～17.91%) and an average increment of income being 1 232 Yuan·hm~(-2)(the increment varied with the county in the range of 713 Yuan·hm~(-2)～1 672 Yuan·hm~(-2)). 【Conclusion】 Spatial variation of the effects was quite obvious. The regions enjoying high increments of wheat yield and income were distributed mainly in Nanzhao, Xixia, Zhenping, Xinye and Sheqi counties, however, some regions in Neixiang, Tanghe and Tongbai counties suffered negative effects. Although STBFF can improve generally yield of the wheat in Nanyang city, the spatial distribution pattern of wheat yield in this area is affected by some factors like physical conditions, soil conditions and agricultural management level of a region.
引文
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[2]程琨,潘根兴,张斌,等.测土配方施肥项目固碳减排计量方法学探讨.农业环境科学学报,2011,30(9):1803-1810Cheng K,Pan G X,Zhang B,et al.Discussion on the methodology for quantifying carbon sequestration and reduction in greenhouse gas emission under recommended fertilization project(In Chinese).Journal of Agro-Environment Science,2011,30(9):1803-1810
[3]钱卫飞,徐巡军,钱卫东,等.不同土壤类型水稻测土配方施肥对肥料利用率的影响.江苏农业科学,2013,41(1):83-85Qian W F,Xu X J,Qian W D,et al.Effect of soil testing and formulated fertilization on fertilizer utilization rate in different soil types(In Chinese).Jiangsu Agricultural Sciences,2013,41(1):83—85
[4]张成玉,肖海峰.我国测土配方施肥技术增收节支效果研究——基于江苏、吉林两省的实证分析.农业技术经济,2009(2):44—51Zhang C Y,Xiao H F.Study on the effect of soil testing and formula fertilization on increasing income and reducing expenditure in China-Based on the empirical analysis of Jiangsu and Jilin(In Chinese).Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2009(2):44-51
[5]张锋,韩会平.农户采用测土配方施肥技术的增收节支效果分析.江苏农业学报,2012,28(6):1471-1475Zhang F,Han H P.Economic effect of soil testing for formulated fertilization(In Chinese).Jiangsu Journal of Agricultural Sciences,2012,28(6):1471—1475
[6]张卫红,李玉娥,秦晓波,等.应用生命周期法评价我国测土配方施肥项目减排效果.农业环境科学学报,2015,34(7):1422—1428Zhang W H,Li Y E,Qin X B,et al.Evaluation of greenhouse gas emission reduction by balanced fertilization in China using life cycle assessment(In Chinese).Journal of Agro-Environment Science,2015,34(7):1422-1428
[7]周大龙,童海琴.测土配方施肥的意义.现代农业科技,2009(23):279,282Zhou D L,Tong H Q.Significance of formula fertilization for soil testing(In Chinese).Modern Agricultural Science and Technology,2009(23):279,282
[8]朱筱婧,李晓明,张雪.低碳农业背景下提高肥料利用率的技术途径.江苏农业科学,2010(4):15-17Zhu X J,Li X M,Zhang X.Technical approaches to improve fertilizer use efficiency with the context of low carbon agriculture(In Chinese).Jiangsu Agricultural Sciences,2010(4):15—17
[9]邓小强,范贵国,周世龙,等.玉米测土配方施肥效果分析.耕作与栽培,2011(6):32-35Deng X Q,Fan G G,Zhou S L,et al.Analysis on the effect of corn soil testing and formula fertilization(In Chinese).Tillage and Cultivation,2011(6):32-35
[10]范贵国,邓小强,张莉,等.县域测土配方施肥专家系统在玉米生产中的应用效果.农业与技术,2016,36(3):8-11Fan G G,Deng X Q,Zhang L,et al.Application of expert system for soil testing and formulatedfertilization in Maize Production(In Chinese).Agriculture and Technology,2016,36(3):8—11
[11]魏玉光,赵丽琴.水稻测土配方施肥效果探究.黑龙江农业科学,2007(2):37-39Wei Y G,Zhao L Q.Effects of formula fertilization by soil testing on rice(In Chinese).Heilongjiang Agricultural Sciences,2007(2):37—39
[12]吴国启,李万源,胡云光,等.早稻配方施肥效果及肥料利用率分析.农业开发与装备,2016(7):78,65Wu G Q,Li W Y,Hu Y G,et al.Effect of formula fertilization and analysis of fertilizer utilization ratio in early season rice(In Chinese).Agricultural Development&Equipments,2016(7):78,65
[13]徐华丽.长江流域油菜施肥状况调查及配方施肥效果研究.武汉:华中农业大学资源与环境学院,2012Xu H L.Investigation on fertilization and effect of formulated fertilization of winter rapeseed in Yangtze River Basin(In Chinese).Wuhan:College of Resources and Environment,Huazhong Agricultural University,2012
[14]余宗波,童军,黄和平,等.湖北省测土配方施肥效果评价报告.湖北农业科学,2010,49(S1):51-60Yu Z B,Tong J,Huang H P,et al.Evaluation report on the effect of soil testing and formulated fertilization in Hubei Province(In Chinese).Hubei Agricultural Sciences,2010,49(S1):51—60
[15]赵佐平,刘芬,段敏,等.秦巴山区水稻油菜配方施肥效益分析.长江流域资源与环境,2017,26(1):74-81Zhao Z P,Liu F,Duan M,et al.Economic benefits of formulated fertilization of rice and rape in Qinba Mountain Area(In Chinese).Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2017,26(1):74-81
[16]周晓舟,唐创业.免耕抛栽水稻测土配方施肥效果分析.作物杂志,2008(4):46-49Zhou X Z,Tang C Y.Effect of formula fertilization by soil testing on rice with no-tillage seedling-broadcast(In Chinese).Crops,2008(4):46—49
[17]周晓舟,唐创业.免耕秋玉米测土配方施肥效果分析.安徽农业科学,2008,36(13):5535—5536,5539Zhou X Z,Tang C Y.Effect of formula fertilization by soil testing on autumn maize with plowing-free(In Chinese).Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2008,36(13):5535-5536,5539
[18]罗小娟,冯淑怡,黄挺,等.测土配方施肥项目实施的环境和经济效果评价.华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2014(1):86—93Luo X J,Feng S Y,Huang T,et al.Assessment on environmental and economic effects of formula fertilization by soil testing project(In Chinese).Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition),2014(1):86—93
[19]罗小娟,冯淑怡,石晓平,等.太湖流域农户环境友好型技术采纳行为及其环境和经济效应评价——以测土配方施肥技术为例.自然资源学报,2013,28(11):1891-1902Luo X J,Feng S Y,Shi X P,et al.Farm households'adoption behavior of environment friendly technology and the evaluation of their environmental and economic effects in Taihu basin—Taking formula fertilization by soil testing technology as an example(In Chinese).Journal of Natural Resources,2013,28(11):1891—1902
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