协同视角下的北京市水资源系统可持续性评价
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摘要
基于系统协同视角,选择可度量的特征指标构建特征向量描述水资源系统序参量的变化,并应用空间向量的关联度计算方法,提出了水资源系统序参量在时间序列上的协同度计算模型。计算过程中所有序参量进行了正向处理,序参量之间的整体协同度越高,系统的可持续性也就越好。在此基础上,应用社会网络分析方法,基于协同阈值的设置,以各序参量之间的协同度作为权重构建水资源系统的协同网络,并从社会网络结构的角度考察水资源系统的动态演进。应用上述分析框架,对北京市的水资源系统进行了实证研究。结果显示:①北京市自然水系统与其他各子系统一直处于高度协同的发展状态,并对整体协同起到调节作用。②在2008—2016年期间,2011—2012年北京市水资源系统变化的整体协同度最好,水资源系统序参量的直接联系和间接联系都很紧密。其中水利基础设施子系统的整体协同贡献突出,表明水利基础设施建成投入运营对于促进水资源系统的协同发展具有重要意义。③与水利基础设施建成对系统协同的贡献作用正好相反,水利建设投资子系统对水资源系统变化的协同贡献程度比较低,表明提升水利建设投资的效率非常重要。④生产生活供应和从业人员子系统在水资源协同网络中具有较高的网络中心性,这些子系统人为控制度高,应该加强这些子系统的优化,通过调整序参量的变化,促进其对水资源系统的整体协同作用。
It is of great significance to comprehensively understand the structure of the water resource system and the relationships among the elements of the system. It contributes to a more resilient water resource system and ensures the system's well-functioning when facing adverse natural environmental impacts such as climate change. From a system synergized perspective,this paper established the eigenvector using measurable characteristic indicators,and depicted the order parameter variations of the water resource system. This paper also proposed the calculation model of the time series synergy for the order parameters based on the correlation calculation method of the space vector. All the order parameters were processed positively to explain the positive correlation between synergy degree and sustainability,and a higher synergy degree among all the order parameters or subsystems indicated a more sustainable water resource system. Based on the efforts,this paper established the synergized network of the water resource system using social network analysis method and considering the synergy degree between order parameters as the weight coefficient. The dynamic evolution of the water resources system from the perspective of social network structure was also investigated. Using the above analytical framework,this paper empirically investigated water resource system in Beijing from 2009 to 2016. The results showed that:①The synergy effect between natural water resource system and other subsystems was significant in Beijing,and the natural water resource system dominated in the synergy of the integrated network. ② The network-wide synergy of Beijing water resource system performed the best in 2011-2012,and both the direct and the indirect links of the order parameters were tight. Particularly,the water infrastructure subsystem played a significant role in the network-wide synergy,indicating the contribution of water infrastructure construction and operation to the synergized development of the water resource system. ③Opposite to the effect of water infrastructure construction and operation,the contribution of the investment into water infrastructure to network-wide synergy was relatively low. It is necessary to enhance the efficiency of water infrastructure investment. ④The subsystems of production and living supply,as well as practitioner also played important roles in promoting network-wide synergy of water resource system,and could be artificially managed.So it is feasible and necessary to optimize these subsystems by adjusting their order parameters to a better position.
It is of great significance to comprehensively understand the structure of the water resource system and the relationships among the elements of the system. It contributes to a more resilient water resource system and ensures the system's well-functioning when facing adverse natural environmental impacts such as climate change. From a system synergized perspective,this paper established the eigenvector using measurable characteristic indicators,and depicted the order parameter variations of the water resource system. This paper also proposed the calculation model of the time series synergy for the order parameters based on the correlation calculation method of the space vector. All the order parameters were processed positively to explain the positive correlation between synergy degree and sustainability,and a higher synergy degree among all the order parameters or subsystems indicated a more sustainable water resource system. Based on the efforts,this paper established the synergized network of the water resource system using social network analysis method and considering the synergy degree between order parameters as the weight coefficient. The dynamic evolution of the water resources system from the perspective of social network structure was also investigated. Using the above analytical framework,this paper empirically investigated water resource system in Beijing from 2009 to 2016. The results showed that:①The synergy effect between natural water resource system and other subsystems was significant in Beijing,and the natural water resource system dominated in the synergy of the integrated network. ② The network-wide synergy of Beijing water resource system performed the best in 2011-2012,and both the direct and the indirect links of the order parameters were tight. Particularly,the water infrastructure subsystem played a significant role in the network-wide synergy,indicating the contribution of water infrastructure construction and operation to the synergized development of the water resource system. ③Opposite to the effect of water infrastructure construction and operation,the contribution of the investment into water infrastructure to network-wide synergy was relatively low. It is necessary to enhance the efficiency of water infrastructure investment. ④The subsystems of production and living supply,as well as practitioner also played important roles in promoting network-wide synergy of water resource system,and could be artificially managed.So it is feasible and necessary to optimize these subsystems by adjusting their order parameters to a better position.
引文
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[2]北京市水务局.北京史上最严水资源管理发布[N].北京:北京青年报,2018-03-24.
[3]李峰平,章光新,董李勤.气候变化对水循环与水资源的影响研究综述[J].地理科学,2013,33(4):457-464.
[4]周新,冯天天,徐明.基于网络系统的结构分析和统计学方法构建中国可持续发展目标的关键目标和核心指标[J].中国科学院院刊,2018,33(1):20-29.
[5]黄初龙,章光新,杨建锋.中国水资源可持续利用评价指标体系研究进展[J].资源科学,2006(2):33-40.
[6]郑德凤,张雨,魏秋蕊,等.基于可持续能力和协调状态的水资源系统评价方法探讨[J].水资源保护,2016,32(3):24-32.
[7]牛文元.可持续发展:21世纪中国发展战略的必然选择[J].生态经济,2000(1):1-3.
[8]韩宇平,雷宏军,潘红卫,等.基于虚拟水和广义水资源的区域水资源可持续利用评价[J].水利学报,2011,42(6):729-736.
[9]周玲玲,王琳,余静.基于水足迹理论的水资源可持续利用评价体系——以即墨市为例[J].资源科学,2014,36(5):913-921.
[10]丁冉,肖伟华,于福亮,等.水资源质量评价方法的比较与改进[J].中国环境监测,2011,27(3):63-68.
[11]齐奇.基于PSR模型和层次分析——熵权法的水生态安全评价研究[J].水利发展研究,2017,17(10):57-61.
[12]夏军,朱一中.水资源安全的度量:水资源承载力的研究与挑战[J].自然资源学报,2002(3):262-269.
[13]刘佳骏,董锁成,李泽红.中国水资源承载力综合评价研究[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(2):258-269.
[14]卜庆伟,辛宏杰.黄河三角洲非常规水资源综合利用[J].水资源保护,2012,28(1):42-45.
[15]王锦国,周志芳,金忠青.我国北方水资源持续发展状况的灰色聚类评价[J].水电能源科学,2000(3):10-12.
[16]楼文高,刘遂庆.区域水资源可持续利用评价的神经网络方法[J].农业系统科学与综合研究,2004(2):113-116+119.
[17]刘毅,贾若祥,侯晓丽.中国区域水资源可持续利用评价及类型划分[J].环境科学,2005(1):42-46.
[18]金菊良,洪天求,王文圣.基于熵和FAHP的水资源可持续利用模糊综合评价模型[J].水力发电学报,2007(4):22-28.
[19]王壬,陈兴伟,陈莹,等.基于粗糙集和突变级数法的区域水资源可持续利用评价[J].中国水土保持科学,2014,12(5):77-83.
[20]王壬,陈兴伟,陈莹.区域水资源可持续利用评价方法对比研究[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(11):1943-1955.
[21]周丰,郭怀成,刘永,等.湿润区湖泊流域水资源可持续发展评价方法[J].自然资源学报,2007(2):290-301.
[22]汤淏,王腊春.基于熵权法的南京市水资源可持续利用评价[J].四川环境,2010,29(1):75-79.
[23]王丽珍,黄跃飞,王光谦.基于不确定性的区域水资源可持续性评价[J].水力发电学报,2013,32(6):83-91.
[24]陈午,许新宜,王红瑞,等.基于改进序关系法的北京市水资源可持续利用评价[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(1):164-176.
[25]段巍巍,史磊刚,曾凡立,等.北京市农业水资源可持续性利用评价[J].贵州农业科学,2017,45(9):143-146.
[26]陈琦莹,黄磊,杨晓亮,等.基于生态足迹法的天津市水资源可持续利用评价[J].海河水利,2017(6):7-10,27.
[27]李冰瑶,陈星,周志才,等.缺水地区水资源可持续利用评价与对策探讨[J].水资源与水工程学报,2017,28(6):104-108.
[28]姚娜,陈方,甘升伟,等.协同学在水资源可持续利用评价中的应用研究[J].水文,2017,37(6):29-34.
[29]李俊晓,李朝奎,罗淑华,等.基于AHP-模糊综合评价方法的泉州市水资源可持续利用评价[J].水土保持通报,2015,35(1):210-214,286.
[30]段新光,栾芳芳.基于模糊综合评判的新疆水资源承载力评价[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(S1):119-122.
[31]刘恒,耿雷华,陈晓燕.区域水资源可持续利用评价指标体系的建立[J].水科学进展,2003(3):265-270.
[32]宋松柏,蔡焕杰,徐良芳.水资源可持续利用指标体系及评价方法研究[J].水科学进展,2003(5):647-652.
[33]韩美,杜焕,张翠,等.黄河三角洲水资源可持续利用评价与预测[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(7):154-160.
[34]康有,陈元芳,顾圣华,等.基于随机森林的区域水资源可持续利用评价[J].水电能源科学,2014,32(3):34-38.
[35]刘楚烨,赵言文,马群宇,等.基于水足迹理论的江苏省水资源可持续利用评价[J].水土保持通报,2017,37(6):313-320.
[36]牛旭,胡芸莎,晁增福,等.基于EAHP的阿拉尔垦区水资源可持续开发利用评价指标研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2017,47(7):105-110.
[37]崔莹,谢世友,柳芬,等.重庆市水资源可持续利用能力的模糊评价[J].西南大学学报(自然科学版),2017,39(4):115-123.
[38]袁旭梅,韩文秀.复合系统的协调与可持续发展[J].中国人口·资源与环境,1998(2):53-57.
[39]傅晓华.协同学与我国可持续发展系统自组织研究[J].系统辩证学学报,2004(1):50-55.
[40]李虹,张希源.区域生态创新协同度及其影响因素研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(6):43-51.
[41]金百顺,张纪岳,郭治安.协同学——一门新兴学科[J].自然杂志,1982(3):189-195,240.
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