陕甘宁蒙粮食生产与耕地资源安全分析
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摘要
针对粮食生产与耕地资源的变化规律对区域粮食安全等问题,该文采用变异系数法、修正后的耕地压力指数及GM(1,1)模型,对陕甘宁蒙能源富集区粮食生产与耕地资源的变化情况进行分析与预测。研究结果表明,陕甘宁蒙粮食产量不断提高,耕地压力呈现减小趋势,区域粮食安全问题得到一定缓解,并可通过提高粮食单产、控制人口增长、提高农作物复种指数及粮食播种面积占总播种面积的比重进一步保障区域粮食安全。
In view of the changes in grain production and cultivated land resources for regional food security,this paper used the coefficient of variation,the revised farmland pressure index and the GM(1,1)model to analysis and predict the changes of grain yield and cultivated land resources in the resource-rich area of Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia-Inner Mongolia,it comprehensively considered the impact of geographical differences in cultivated land quality and agricultural technology level on regional food security.The results showed that,the grain yield of the resource-rich area of Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia-Inner Mongolia was increasing and the pressure of cultivated land was decreasing,the regional food security problem will be alleviated and it can be further improved by raising the grain yield per unit area,controlling the population growth and increasing the crop multiple cropping indexes and the proportion of grain sown area.
In view of the changes in grain production and cultivated land resources for regional food security,this paper used the coefficient of variation,the revised farmland pressure index and the GM(1,1)model to analysis and predict the changes of grain yield and cultivated land resources in the resource-rich area of Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia-Inner Mongolia,it comprehensively considered the impact of geographical differences in cultivated land quality and agricultural technology level on regional food security.The results showed that,the grain yield of the resource-rich area of Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia-Inner Mongolia was increasing and the pressure of cultivated land was decreasing,the regional food security problem will be alleviated and it can be further improved by raising the grain yield per unit area,controlling the population growth and increasing the crop multiple cropping indexes and the proportion of grain sown area.
引文
[1]李裕瑞,刘彦随,龙花楼.江苏省粮食生产的时空变化的影响机制[J].地理科学进展,2009,28(1):125-131.(LI Yurui,LIU Yansui,LONG Hualou.Influencing mechanism of spatial-temporal variation of grain production in Jiangsu province[J].Progress in Geography,2009,28(1):125-131.)
[2]罗翔,曾菊新,朱媛媛,等.谁来养活中国:耕地压力在粮食安全中的作用及解释[J].地理研究,2016,35(12):2216-2226.(LUO Xiang,ZENG Juxin,ZHUYuanyuan,et al.Who will feed China:the role and explanation of China’s farmland pressure in food security[J].Geography Research,2016,35(12):2216-2226.)
[3]陈玉洁,张平宇,刘世薇,等.东北西部粮食生产时空格局变化及优化布局研究[J].地理科学,2016,36(9):1397-1407.(CHEN Yujie,ZHANG Pingyu,LIU Shiwei,et al.The spatial-temporal pattern change and optimum layout of grain production in the west of Northeast China[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(9):1397-1407.)
[4]张锦宗,朱瑜馨,赵飞,等.我国粮食生产格局演变及增产贡献研究[J].中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(7):10-17.(ZHANG Jinzong,ZHU Yuxin,ZHAO Fei,et al.Spatial-temporal evolution of Chinese grain production pattern and arable land production capacity[J].Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,2017,38(7):10-17.)
[5]彭代彦,文乐.农村劳动力结构变化与粮食生产的技术效率[J].华南农业大学学报(社会科学版),2015,14(1):92-104.(PENG Daiyan,WEN Le.The structure change of rural labor force and technical efficiency of grain production[J].Journal of South China Agricultural University(Social Science Edition),2015,14(1):92-104.)
[6]赵丽平,侯德林,王雅鹏,等.城镇化对粮食生产环境技术效率影响研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(3):153-162.(ZHAO Liping,HOU Delin,WANGYapeng,et al.Study on the impact of urbanization on the environmental technology efficiency of grain production[J].China Population Resources and Environment,2016,26(3):153-162.)
[7]熊伟,林而达,蒋金荷,等.中国粮食生产的综合影响因素分析[J].地理学报,2010,65(4):397-406.(XIONGWei,LIN Erda,JIANG Jinhe,et al.An integrated analysis of impact factors in determining China’s future grain production[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2010,65(4):397-406.)
[8]刘玉,潘瑜春,任旭红,等.基于LMDI的粮食生产因素分解模型及实证分析:以河南省为例[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2014,50(5):887-894.(LIU Yu,PAN Yuchun,REN Xuhong,et al.Factor decomposition of grain production at county level in Henan based on LMDI[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,2014,50(5)887-894.)
[9]栾健,周玉玺.自然灾害对山东省粮食生产影响的实证分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(4):127-131.(LUAN Jian,ZHOU Yuxi.The empirical analysis on the impact of natural disasters on grain production in Shandong province[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2016,30(4):127-131.)
[10]杨博,唐彬,杨柏欢.区域经济发展与粮食生产耦合分析:以榆林市为例[J].中国农业资源与区划,2016,37(11):99-104.(YANG Bo,TANG Bin,YANG Baihuan.Coupling analysis of regional economic development and grain production in Yulin city[J].Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,2016,37(11)99-104.)
[11]邵留长,乔家君.河南省经济发展与粮食生产耦合协调分析[J].农业现代化研究,2016,37(2):230-237.(SHAO Liuchang,QIAO Jiajun.Analysis of the coupling coordination between economic development and grain production in Henan province[J].Research of Agricultural Modernization,2016,37(2):230-237.)
[12]蔺涛,谢云,刘刚,等.黑龙江省气候变化对粮食生产的影响[J].自然资源学报,2008,23(2):307-318.(LINTao,XIE Yun,LIU Gang,et al.Impact of climate change on crop yields in Heilongjiang province[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2008,23(2):307-318.)
[13]杨春艳,沈渭寿,李海东.1985-2010年西藏粮食产量对气候和耕地变化的响应[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(17):261-269.(YANG Chunyan,SHEN Weishou,LIHaidong.Response of grain yield in Tibet to climate and cultivated land change during 1985-2010[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering2015,31(17):261-269.)
[14]杨封科,何宝林,高世铭.气候变化对甘肃省粮食生产的影响研究进展[J].应用生态学报,2015,26(3):930-938.(YANG Fengke,HE Baolin,GAO Shiming.Impacts of climate change on food production in Gansu:a review[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2015,26(3):930-938.)
[15]赵永华,刘晓静,奥勇.陕西省耕地资源变化及耕地压力指数分析与预测[J].农业工程学报,2013,29(11):217-223.(ZHAO Yonghua,LIU Xiaojing,AO Yong.Analysis of cultivated land change,pressure index and its prediction in Shaanxi province[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2013,29(11):217-223.)
[16]李倩倩,陈印军.关中地区耕地压力指数分析及预测[J].中国农学通报,2011,27(29):241-245.(LI Qianqian,CHEN Yinjun.Analysis and prediction of pressure index of cultivated land in the central Shaanxi area[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2011,27(29):241-245.)
[17]喻保华.河南省耕地压力指数动态分析与预测[J].中国农业资源与区划,2015,36(6):17-21.(YU Baohua.Dynamic analysis and forecast of the cultivated land pressure index in Henan province[J].Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,2015,36(6):17-21.)
[18]胡聪,邓正苗,谢永宏,等.1984年以来湖南省耕地压力与粮食安全初步研究[J].农业现代化研究,2015,36(2):259-264.(HU Chong,DENG Zhengmiao,XIE Yonghong,et al.Cropland acreage change and grain production security in Hunan province since 1984[J].Research of Agricultural Modernization,2015,36(2):259-264.)
[19]李治国,张竟竟,郭志富.基于耕地压力指数的河南省粮食安全状况研究[J].地域研究与开发,2014,33(2):141-145.(LI Zhiguo,ZHANG Jingjing,GUO Zhifu.Food Security Study in Henan province based on cropland pressure index[J].Areal Research and Development,2014,33(2):141-145.)
[20]徐京京,黄建武,李丹,等.安徽省耕地压力指数时空分布特征及趋势预测[J].华中师范大学学报(自然科学版),2015,49(4):615-622.(XU Jingjing,HUANGJianwu,LI Dan,et al.An analysis of the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of pressure index of cultivated land and its trend prediction of Anhui province[J].Journal of Central China Normal University(Natural Sciences),2015,49(4):615-622.)
[21]孙国军.甘肃省耕地压力动态变化及空间差异分析[J].冰川冻土,2015,37(4):1120-1126.(SUN Guojun.Analysis of the dynamic change and spatial difference of cultivated land pressure in Gansu province[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2015,37(4):1120-1126.)
[22]刘胜峰,张合平.长株潭地区耕地压力的时空变化及驱动因素分析[J].中国岩溶,2015,34(3):274-280.(LIUShengfeng,ZHANG Heping.Spatial-tempral change and driving factors of cultivated land pressure in the Chang-Zhu-Tan Area[J].Carsologica Sinica,2015,34(3):274-280.)
[23]胡守庚,刘越岩,吴新群,等.鄂西北山区耕地压力动态变化特征及成因分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2010,19(7):765-769.(HU Shougeng,LIU Yueyan,WU Xinqun,et al.Analysis on characteristics and forming reasons of pressure of cultivated land in Northwest mountains area of Hubei province[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2010,19(7):765-769.)
[24]蔡运龙,傅泽强,戴尔阜.区域最小人均耕地面积与耕地资源调控[J].地理学报,2002,57(2):127-134.(CAIYunlong,FU Zeqiang,DAI Erfu.The minimum area per capita of cultivated land and its implication for the optimization of land resource allocation[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2002,57(2):127-134.)
[25]唐启义.DPS数据处理系统:实验设计、统计分析及数据挖掘[M].2版.北京:科学出版社,2010.(TANGQiyi.DPSdata processing system:experimental design,statistical analysis and data mining[M].2nd ed.Beijing:Science Press,2010.)
[26]邓聚龙.汉英对照灰色系统基本方法[M].2版.武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2005.(DENG Julong.The primary methods of gray system theory[M].2nd ed.Wuhan:Huazhong University of Science and Technology Press,2005.)
[27]贾科利,马欣,张俊华.宁夏耕地压力与社会经济发展耦合时空特征分析[J].干旱区地理,2014,37(4):812-819.(JIA Keli,MA Xin,ZHANG Junhua.Spatial-temporal characteristics of coupling pressure index of cropland with social economy in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region[J].Arid Land Geography,2014,37(4):812-819.)
[28]丁明军,陈倩,辛良杰,等.1999-2013年中国耕地复种指数的时空演变格局[J].地理学报,2015,70(7):1080-1090.(DING Mingjun,CHEN Qian,XIN Liang-jie,et al.Spatial and temporal variations of multiple cropping index in China based on SPOT-NDVI during 1999-2013[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2015,70(7):1080-1090.)
[2]罗翔,曾菊新,朱媛媛,等.谁来养活中国:耕地压力在粮食安全中的作用及解释[J].地理研究,2016,35(12):2216-2226.(LUO Xiang,ZENG Juxin,ZHUYuanyuan,et al.Who will feed China:the role and explanation of China’s farmland pressure in food security[J].Geography Research,2016,35(12):2216-2226.)
[3]陈玉洁,张平宇,刘世薇,等.东北西部粮食生产时空格局变化及优化布局研究[J].地理科学,2016,36(9):1397-1407.(CHEN Yujie,ZHANG Pingyu,LIU Shiwei,et al.The spatial-temporal pattern change and optimum layout of grain production in the west of Northeast China[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(9):1397-1407.)
[4]张锦宗,朱瑜馨,赵飞,等.我国粮食生产格局演变及增产贡献研究[J].中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(7):10-17.(ZHANG Jinzong,ZHU Yuxin,ZHAO Fei,et al.Spatial-temporal evolution of Chinese grain production pattern and arable land production capacity[J].Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,2017,38(7):10-17.)
[5]彭代彦,文乐.农村劳动力结构变化与粮食生产的技术效率[J].华南农业大学学报(社会科学版),2015,14(1):92-104.(PENG Daiyan,WEN Le.The structure change of rural labor force and technical efficiency of grain production[J].Journal of South China Agricultural University(Social Science Edition),2015,14(1):92-104.)
[6]赵丽平,侯德林,王雅鹏,等.城镇化对粮食生产环境技术效率影响研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(3):153-162.(ZHAO Liping,HOU Delin,WANGYapeng,et al.Study on the impact of urbanization on the environmental technology efficiency of grain production[J].China Population Resources and Environment,2016,26(3):153-162.)
[7]熊伟,林而达,蒋金荷,等.中国粮食生产的综合影响因素分析[J].地理学报,2010,65(4):397-406.(XIONGWei,LIN Erda,JIANG Jinhe,et al.An integrated analysis of impact factors in determining China’s future grain production[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2010,65(4):397-406.)
[8]刘玉,潘瑜春,任旭红,等.基于LMDI的粮食生产因素分解模型及实证分析:以河南省为例[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2014,50(5):887-894.(LIU Yu,PAN Yuchun,REN Xuhong,et al.Factor decomposition of grain production at county level in Henan based on LMDI[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,2014,50(5)887-894.)
[9]栾健,周玉玺.自然灾害对山东省粮食生产影响的实证分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(4):127-131.(LUAN Jian,ZHOU Yuxi.The empirical analysis on the impact of natural disasters on grain production in Shandong province[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2016,30(4):127-131.)
[10]杨博,唐彬,杨柏欢.区域经济发展与粮食生产耦合分析:以榆林市为例[J].中国农业资源与区划,2016,37(11):99-104.(YANG Bo,TANG Bin,YANG Baihuan.Coupling analysis of regional economic development and grain production in Yulin city[J].Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,2016,37(11)99-104.)
[11]邵留长,乔家君.河南省经济发展与粮食生产耦合协调分析[J].农业现代化研究,2016,37(2):230-237.(SHAO Liuchang,QIAO Jiajun.Analysis of the coupling coordination between economic development and grain production in Henan province[J].Research of Agricultural Modernization,2016,37(2):230-237.)
[12]蔺涛,谢云,刘刚,等.黑龙江省气候变化对粮食生产的影响[J].自然资源学报,2008,23(2):307-318.(LINTao,XIE Yun,LIU Gang,et al.Impact of climate change on crop yields in Heilongjiang province[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2008,23(2):307-318.)
[13]杨春艳,沈渭寿,李海东.1985-2010年西藏粮食产量对气候和耕地变化的响应[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(17):261-269.(YANG Chunyan,SHEN Weishou,LIHaidong.Response of grain yield in Tibet to climate and cultivated land change during 1985-2010[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering2015,31(17):261-269.)
[14]杨封科,何宝林,高世铭.气候变化对甘肃省粮食生产的影响研究进展[J].应用生态学报,2015,26(3):930-938.(YANG Fengke,HE Baolin,GAO Shiming.Impacts of climate change on food production in Gansu:a review[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2015,26(3):930-938.)
[15]赵永华,刘晓静,奥勇.陕西省耕地资源变化及耕地压力指数分析与预测[J].农业工程学报,2013,29(11):217-223.(ZHAO Yonghua,LIU Xiaojing,AO Yong.Analysis of cultivated land change,pressure index and its prediction in Shaanxi province[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2013,29(11):217-223.)
[16]李倩倩,陈印军.关中地区耕地压力指数分析及预测[J].中国农学通报,2011,27(29):241-245.(LI Qianqian,CHEN Yinjun.Analysis and prediction of pressure index of cultivated land in the central Shaanxi area[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2011,27(29):241-245.)
[17]喻保华.河南省耕地压力指数动态分析与预测[J].中国农业资源与区划,2015,36(6):17-21.(YU Baohua.Dynamic analysis and forecast of the cultivated land pressure index in Henan province[J].Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,2015,36(6):17-21.)
[18]胡聪,邓正苗,谢永宏,等.1984年以来湖南省耕地压力与粮食安全初步研究[J].农业现代化研究,2015,36(2):259-264.(HU Chong,DENG Zhengmiao,XIE Yonghong,et al.Cropland acreage change and grain production security in Hunan province since 1984[J].Research of Agricultural Modernization,2015,36(2):259-264.)
[19]李治国,张竟竟,郭志富.基于耕地压力指数的河南省粮食安全状况研究[J].地域研究与开发,2014,33(2):141-145.(LI Zhiguo,ZHANG Jingjing,GUO Zhifu.Food Security Study in Henan province based on cropland pressure index[J].Areal Research and Development,2014,33(2):141-145.)
[20]徐京京,黄建武,李丹,等.安徽省耕地压力指数时空分布特征及趋势预测[J].华中师范大学学报(自然科学版),2015,49(4):615-622.(XU Jingjing,HUANGJianwu,LI Dan,et al.An analysis of the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of pressure index of cultivated land and its trend prediction of Anhui province[J].Journal of Central China Normal University(Natural Sciences),2015,49(4):615-622.)
[21]孙国军.甘肃省耕地压力动态变化及空间差异分析[J].冰川冻土,2015,37(4):1120-1126.(SUN Guojun.Analysis of the dynamic change and spatial difference of cultivated land pressure in Gansu province[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2015,37(4):1120-1126.)
[22]刘胜峰,张合平.长株潭地区耕地压力的时空变化及驱动因素分析[J].中国岩溶,2015,34(3):274-280.(LIUShengfeng,ZHANG Heping.Spatial-tempral change and driving factors of cultivated land pressure in the Chang-Zhu-Tan Area[J].Carsologica Sinica,2015,34(3):274-280.)
[23]胡守庚,刘越岩,吴新群,等.鄂西北山区耕地压力动态变化特征及成因分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2010,19(7):765-769.(HU Shougeng,LIU Yueyan,WU Xinqun,et al.Analysis on characteristics and forming reasons of pressure of cultivated land in Northwest mountains area of Hubei province[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2010,19(7):765-769.)
[24]蔡运龙,傅泽强,戴尔阜.区域最小人均耕地面积与耕地资源调控[J].地理学报,2002,57(2):127-134.(CAIYunlong,FU Zeqiang,DAI Erfu.The minimum area per capita of cultivated land and its implication for the optimization of land resource allocation[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2002,57(2):127-134.)
[25]唐启义.DPS数据处理系统:实验设计、统计分析及数据挖掘[M].2版.北京:科学出版社,2010.(TANGQiyi.DPSdata processing system:experimental design,statistical analysis and data mining[M].2nd ed.Beijing:Science Press,2010.)
[26]邓聚龙.汉英对照灰色系统基本方法[M].2版.武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2005.(DENG Julong.The primary methods of gray system theory[M].2nd ed.Wuhan:Huazhong University of Science and Technology Press,2005.)
[27]贾科利,马欣,张俊华.宁夏耕地压力与社会经济发展耦合时空特征分析[J].干旱区地理,2014,37(4):812-819.(JIA Keli,MA Xin,ZHANG Junhua.Spatial-temporal characteristics of coupling pressure index of cropland with social economy in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region[J].Arid Land Geography,2014,37(4):812-819.)
[28]丁明军,陈倩,辛良杰,等.1999-2013年中国耕地复种指数的时空演变格局[J].地理学报,2015,70(7):1080-1090.(DING Mingjun,CHEN Qian,XIN Liang-jie,et al.Spatial and temporal variations of multiple cropping index in China based on SPOT-NDVI during 1999-2013[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2015,70(7):1080-1090.)
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