气温变化对黄骅市冬枣生产的影响
|
摘要
为枣农改进生产管理措施提供参考,基于黄骅市1989-2018年气温数据,结合冬枣观测资料,研究气温引起的冬枣休眠期冻害对冬枣生产管理模式造成的影响。结果表明:1989-2018年黄骅市年平均温度呈上升趋势,气候倾向率为0.31/10a;极端最高温度变化呈下降趋势,变化不明显;极端最低温度变化趋势满足抛物线y=-0.007 8x2+0.219 2x-14.521,抛物线顶点在2003年,2003年之后气温逐年降低,近10年来年最低温度降低幅度加大。冬季寒潮天气过程平均每年发生0.29次,多发生在冬枣深度休眠的1月,最晚发生在3月,48h内最大降温幅度可达-15.7℃,近10年来寒潮发生强度和频率均呈增加趋势。枣农在冬枣管理中忽略对树势培育的管理模式是冬枣树抵御冻害能力明显降低的主要原因,建议从预留辅养枝、合理减小开甲宽度,平衡营养生长和生殖生长关系等方面改进措施,以提高冬枣树自身抵御休眠期冻害能力,减小因气温变化造成的灾害损失。
In order to provide a reference for the improvement of production management measures for jujube farmers,based on the temperature data of Huanghua City from 1989 to 2018,combined with the observation data of winter jujube,the effects of temperature-induced freeze damage during the dormant period of winter jujube on the production management mode were studied.Results:The annual average temperature of Huanghua City in 1989-2018 was increasing,the climate tendency rate was 0.31/10 a;the extreme maximum temperature change shows an unobvious downward trend;The extreme minimum temperature change trend satisfied the parabola y=-0.007 8 x2+0.219 2 x-14.521,the parabolic apex was in 2003,after 2003,the temperature decreased year by year,the lowest temperature reduction increased in the past 10 years.The average winter cold weather process occurred 0.29 times per year,mostly in January,when the jujube was deeply dormant,and at the latest in March,the maximum temperature drop within 48 hours could reach-15.7℃.The intensity and frequency of cold wave increased in the past 10 years.The management mode of jujube farmers neglecting the cultivation of tree potential in the management of winter jujube was the main reason for the significant reduction of winter jujube tree resistance to freezing damage.It was suggested that the auxiliary nutrient branch should be reserved,the width of armor should be reduced reasonably,and the relationship between vegetative growth and reproductive growth should be balanced,thus to improve the ability of winter jujube trees to resist freezing damage during dormancy and reduce disaster losses caused by temperature changes.
In order to provide a reference for the improvement of production management measures for jujube farmers,based on the temperature data of Huanghua City from 1989 to 2018,combined with the observation data of winter jujube,the effects of temperature-induced freeze damage during the dormant period of winter jujube on the production management mode were studied.Results:The annual average temperature of Huanghua City in 1989-2018 was increasing,the climate tendency rate was 0.31/10 a;the extreme maximum temperature change shows an unobvious downward trend;The extreme minimum temperature change trend satisfied the parabola y=-0.007 8 x2+0.219 2 x-14.521,the parabolic apex was in 2003,after 2003,the temperature decreased year by year,the lowest temperature reduction increased in the past 10 years.The average winter cold weather process occurred 0.29 times per year,mostly in January,when the jujube was deeply dormant,and at the latest in March,the maximum temperature drop within 48 hours could reach-15.7℃.The intensity and frequency of cold wave increased in the past 10 years.The management mode of jujube farmers neglecting the cultivation of tree potential in the management of winter jujube was the main reason for the significant reduction of winter jujube tree resistance to freezing damage.It was suggested that the auxiliary nutrient branch should be reserved,the width of armor should be reduced reasonably,and the relationship between vegetative growth and reproductive growth should be balanced,thus to improve the ability of winter jujube trees to resist freezing damage during dormancy and reduce disaster losses caused by temperature changes.
引文
[1]赵建,任周鹏,王劲峰,等.1961-2013年东北与华北气温变化速度空间差异[J].地球信息科学学报,2017,19(7):909-914.
[2]王晓利.中国沿海极端气候变化及其对NDVI的影响特征研究[D].烟台:中国科学院烟台海岸带研究所,2017.
[3]覃志豪,唐华俊,李文娟,等.气候变化对农业和粮食生产影响的研究进展与发展方向[J].中国农业资源与区划,2013,34(5):1-7.
[4]彭颖姝,高捍东,苑兆和.全球气候变化对温带果树的影响[J].中国农业科技导报,2018,20(7):1-10.
[5]王荣英,李春强,吴雁,等.气候变化对果树冻害的影响及其防御对策[J].安徽农业科学,2012,40(9):5310-5312,5316.
[6]严彩虹,周龙,唐震,等.莫索湾垦区冬枣大棚温度特征变化及日最低气温预报研究[J].浙江农业科学,2018,59(3):445-448.
[7]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,1999:43.
[8]吴冠楠,张爱玲,臧海光.气象国家标准《寒潮等级》在冬季预报业务中的应用[J].科技风,2017(24):131.
[9]张翠英,樊献政.菏泽市气候变化及主要农业气象灾害发生规律的研究[J].山东农业大学学报(自然科学版),2019(1):78-83.
[10]宗晓鸿,王迪.沾化冬枣休眠期低温冻害调查分析[J].陕西农业科学,2016,62(12):79-80.
[11]肖家彪,肖家良,孙新,等.2016年河北沧州冬枣冻害调查[J].果树实用技术与信息,2017(9):35-39.
[12]马恩凤,王树云,只长奎.冬枣冻害产生的原因及预防补救措施[J].落叶果树,2011,43(3):60-61.
[2]王晓利.中国沿海极端气候变化及其对NDVI的影响特征研究[D].烟台:中国科学院烟台海岸带研究所,2017.
[3]覃志豪,唐华俊,李文娟,等.气候变化对农业和粮食生产影响的研究进展与发展方向[J].中国农业资源与区划,2013,34(5):1-7.
[4]彭颖姝,高捍东,苑兆和.全球气候变化对温带果树的影响[J].中国农业科技导报,2018,20(7):1-10.
[5]王荣英,李春强,吴雁,等.气候变化对果树冻害的影响及其防御对策[J].安徽农业科学,2012,40(9):5310-5312,5316.
[6]严彩虹,周龙,唐震,等.莫索湾垦区冬枣大棚温度特征变化及日最低气温预报研究[J].浙江农业科学,2018,59(3):445-448.
[7]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,1999:43.
[8]吴冠楠,张爱玲,臧海光.气象国家标准《寒潮等级》在冬季预报业务中的应用[J].科技风,2017(24):131.
[9]张翠英,樊献政.菏泽市气候变化及主要农业气象灾害发生规律的研究[J].山东农业大学学报(自然科学版),2019(1):78-83.
[10]宗晓鸿,王迪.沾化冬枣休眠期低温冻害调查分析[J].陕西农业科学,2016,62(12):79-80.
[11]肖家彪,肖家良,孙新,等.2016年河北沧州冬枣冻害调查[J].果树实用技术与信息,2017(9):35-39.
[12]马恩凤,王树云,只长奎.冬枣冻害产生的原因及预防补救措施[J].落叶果树,2011,43(3):60-61.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |