基于模糊层次分析法的湖北某尾矿库风险评价

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英文篇名：Risk assessment of a tailings reservoir in Hubei based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process 作者：瞿美仙 ; 吴浩 ; 昝军 ; 刘毅 英文作者：QU Meixian;WU Hao;ZAN Jun;LIU Yi;School of Safety Science and Emergency Management,Wuhan University of Technology;The College of Urban & Environmental Sciences,Central China Normal University;Hubei Emergency Rescue Center for Production Safety; 关键词：尾矿库 ; 指标体系 ; 风险评价 ; 模糊层次分析法 英文关键词：tailings reservoir;;risk assessment;;indexes system;;fuzzy analytic hierarchy process 中文刊名：中国矿业 英文刊名：China Mining Magazine 机构：武汉理工大学安全科学与应急管理学院;华中师范大学城市与环境科学学院;湖北省安全生产应急救援中心; 出版日期：2019-10-20 出版单位：中国矿业 年：2019 期：S2 基金：2019年湖北省技术创新专项重大项目资助(编号：2019ACA143) 语种：中文; 页：156-161 页数：6 CN：11-3033/TD ISSN：1004-4051 分类号：TD926.4

摘要

尾矿库是一种高危的潜在危险源,一旦发生溃坝,将会对下游居民的生命和财产安全造成巨大损失,同时也会造成严重的环境污染,特别是"头顶库"和"三边库",因此,掌握尾矿库的安全性至关重要。本文从导致尾矿库发生溃坝的原因出发,建立湖北省某尾矿库的溃坝风险评价指标体系,并运用模糊层次分析法对该尾矿库的溃坝风险进行综合评价。模糊层次分析法是一种很好地解决多目标非定量问题的方法,运用模糊层次分析法能有效地对尾矿库进行全面、科学的评价,即采用层次分析法确定尾矿库各风险指标的权重,运用模糊综合评价法对尾矿库的整体风险进行评价。最终得到该尾矿库的溃坝风险大小为88.7765,等级为较低风险,该尾矿库在正常情况下运行良好。
        The tailings reservoir is a high-risk source of potential hazards.Once the dam breaks,it will bring serious damage to the downstream residents,and also bring great impact to the environment,especially the"head library"and "trilateral library".Therefore,it is important to master the safety of the tailings reservoir.Based on the cause of the tailings reservoir dam-break,this paper establishes a dam-break risk evaluation system for a tailings reservoir in Hubei province,and comprehensively evaluates the dam-break risk of the tailings reservoir by using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process.Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is a good method to solve multi-objective non-quantitative problems.Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process can effectively and comprehensively evaluate tailings,that is,using analytic hierarchy process to determine the weight of each risk indicator and using fuzzy comprehensive analysis method to evaluate the overall risk of the tailings reservoir.The dam-break risk of the tailings reservoir is 88.7765,which is a lower risk.The tailings reservoir works well under normal conditions.

引文

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