四川西部M_S≥6.3地震时空对称规律趋势判断
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摘要
为能更及时地进行灾害前的预测以及开展防灾减灾工作,提高时空对称性方体系的准确性、完整性,对四川西部M_S≥6.3地震时空对称规律进行趋势判断,采用蝴蝶结构图、可公度法和可公度结构系以及相关机理,分析了四川西部M_S≥6.3地震时空对称性.选取1900年以来四川西部M_S≥6.3地震数据,进一步验证趋势判断结果.结果表明,1900年以来四川西部M_S≥6.3地震具有可公度性,2020年发震信号较强,并且发现约在2020年11月发震信号最强烈;在101°E,31°N附近地区发震的可能性较大;从太阳黑子活动对四川西部M_S≥6.3地震的影响来看,1900—2017年四川西部发生20次M_S≥6.3地震,主要发生在太阳黑子活动周期的双周期和下降阶段;从与地球自转的相关性来看,在地球自转变化率较大的年份占70%;朔月、上弦月前后发生地震次数占60%.
In order to make more timely prediction,disaster prevention and mitigation work,and improve the accuracy and integrity of space-time symmetry system,the trend of space-time symmetry law of M_S≥6.3 earthquake in western Sichuan is judged.In this paper,the space-time symmetry of M_S≥6.3 earthquakes in western Sichuan is analyzed by using butterfly structure map,the method of proportionality,the system of measurable structure and the correlation mechanism.The seismic data of M_S≥6.3 in western Sichuan since 1900 are selected to further verify the results of trend judgment.The results show that:the M_S≥6.3 earthquake in the west of Sichuan since 1900 has the degree of acceptability,the earthquake signal in 2020 is stronger,and the downshock signal is strongest in November 2020.The possibility of earthquake occurring in the area near 101°E,31°N is greater.From the influence of sunspot activity on M_S≥6.3 earthquake in western Sichuan,M_S≥6.3 earthquakes occurred in west Sichuan from 1900 to 2017,mainly occurred in the double period and descending stage of sunspot activity cycle;the correlation between the rotation of the earth and that of the earth,in the year in which the change rate of the earth's rotation is large,reached 70%,and the number of earthquakes around the last quarter month is as high as 60%.
In order to make more timely prediction,disaster prevention and mitigation work,and improve the accuracy and integrity of space-time symmetry system,the trend of space-time symmetry law of M_S≥6.3 earthquake in western Sichuan is judged.In this paper,the space-time symmetry of M_S≥6.3 earthquakes in western Sichuan is analyzed by using butterfly structure map,the method of proportionality,the system of measurable structure and the correlation mechanism.The seismic data of M_S≥6.3 in western Sichuan since 1900 are selected to further verify the results of trend judgment.The results show that:the M_S≥6.3 earthquake in the west of Sichuan since 1900 has the degree of acceptability,the earthquake signal in 2020 is stronger,and the downshock signal is strongest in November 2020.The possibility of earthquake occurring in the area near 101°E,31°N is greater.From the influence of sunspot activity on M_S≥6.3 earthquake in western Sichuan,M_S≥6.3 earthquakes occurred in west Sichuan from 1900 to 2017,mainly occurred in the double period and descending stage of sunspot activity cycle;the correlation between the rotation of the earth and that of the earth,in the year in which the change rate of the earth's rotation is large,reached 70%,and the number of earthquakes around the last quarter month is as high as 60%.
引文
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[18] 张晶,郗钦文,杨林章,等.引潮力与潮汐应力对强震触发的研究[J].地球物理学报,2007,50(2):448.
[19] 陈荣华.引潮力对显著地震的触发作用与大震关系及在雅江地震预报中的应用[J].地震学报,2003,23(1):53.
[20] 吴小平,黄雍,冒蔚,等.云南地震的潮汐应力触发机制及相关天体位置图像[J].地球物理学报,2005 ,48(3):574.
[2] 马宗晋.地球构造变动的韵律性非对称性和地震(综述)[R]//中国地震学会第二届代表大会暨学术年会论文摘要汇编.北京:中国地震学会,1984.
[3] 冯培恩,马志勇,邱清盈,等.从自然科学到工程科学的对称性本体论研究[J].自然科学进展,2008,18(12):1441.
[4] 许绍燮.大地震时空窗口研究[J].科技导报,2012,30(4):18.
[5] 翁文波.可公度性[J].地球物理学报,1981,24(2):151.
[6] 翁文波.预测论基础[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1984.
[7] 龙小霞,延军平,孙虎,等.基于可公度方法的川滇地区地震趋势研究[J].灾害学,2006,21(3):81.
[8] 李向农,延军平.川滇地区MS≥7.0地震时空对称特征及趋势判断[J].地球物理学进展,2017,32(4):1447.
[9] 杨飞霞,曹广超,延军平,等.四川MS≥6.8级地震的时空对称性研究[J].防灾减灾学报,2016,32(4):32.
[10] 童鹏飞.明代四川地区地震灾害初步研究[D].重庆:西南大学,2013.
[11] 李双双,延军平.西太平洋俯冲带北部地区MS≥8强震时空对称特征[J].地球物理学进展,2012,27(3):960.
[12] 郭增建,秦保燕.地震迁移问题(综述)[J].国际地震动态,1983(1):7.
[13] OCHADLICK A R,KRITIKOS H N,GIEGENGACK R.Variation in the period of the sunspot cycle[J].Geophysical Research Letters,1993,20(14):1471.
[14] 郑大伟.地球自转与大气、海洋活动[J].天文学进展,1988,6(4):316.
[15] 李智蓉,张晓东.潮汐应力与大震关系研究[J].地震,2011,31(4):48.
[16] 高锡铭,殷志山,王威中,等.固体潮应力张量对地震的触发作用[J].地震,1981,3(3):264.
[17] 孙长青,阎春恒,吴小平,等.青藏高原东部及邻区地震断层面上的潮汐应力触发效应[J].地球物理学报,2014,57(7):2054.
[18] 张晶,郗钦文,杨林章,等.引潮力与潮汐应力对强震触发的研究[J].地球物理学报,2007,50(2):448.
[19] 陈荣华.引潮力对显著地震的触发作用与大震关系及在雅江地震预报中的应用[J].地震学报,2003,23(1):53.
[20] 吴小平,黄雍,冒蔚,等.云南地震的潮汐应力触发机制及相关天体位置图像[J].地球物理学报,2005 ,48(3):574.
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