一种基于R型因子分析和概率神经网络的冲击地压危险性等级评价模型
|
摘要
冲击地压是煤矿生产活动中常见的一种动力灾害,其危险性等级评价是冲击地压防治工作中施行解危措施的前提和基础。综合考虑冲击地压发生的地质条件和开采技术条件,选取煤层厚度、倾角、埋深、地质构造情况、煤层倾角变化、厚度变化、瓦斯浓度、顶板管理、采前卸压情况和响煤炮声等10个影响因素作为冲击地压危险性等级评价指标,但指标间或多或少存在一定的相关性,导致指标信息重叠。为了提高冲击地压危险性等级预测精度,借鉴一种R型因子分析对冲击地压10个指标进行降维处理,提取5个主因子作为新的评价指标。在R型因子分析的基础上,建立重庆砚石台煤矿冲击地压危险性等级评价的PNN模型,仿真结果表明:5种不同的训练和测试下PNN模型仍具有良好的评价效果,其正判率分别为94.29%,88.57%,88.57%,85.71%和82.86%,同时验证R型因子分析对冲击地压危险性等级评价结果。说明R型因子分析与PNN模型结合可为煤矿开采中冲击地压危险性等级评价提供一种思路。
Rock burst is one of the common dynamic disasters in coal mine production. Hence, the evaluation of the risk grade is the prerequisite for the implementation of countermeasures in the prevention and control of rock burst. Factors of geological and mining technique conditions were considered comprehensively,and 10 factors,including the coal seam thickness,dip angle,depth,geological tectonic situation,change of coal seam dip angle,change of coal seam thickness,gas concentration,roof control, state of pressure relief before excavation and shooting,were selected as evaluation indexes of the risk grade for rock burst. However, there exist somewhat correlations, large or small, between these factors. In order to improve the prediction precision of rock burst, the method of R-type factor analysis was utilized to synthesize 5 main factors from these 10 factors as new evaluation indexes to eliminate the information overlapping of these factors, and reduce the input dimension. Based on this, a PNN model for the evaluation of risk grade of rock burst in Yanshitai coal mine in Chongqing was established. The simulation results show that the PNN model presents a favorable performance for 5 different kinds of training and test samples, and the distinguishing-positive rates are 94.29%, 88.57%, 88.57%, 85.71% and 82.86% respectively. Meanwhile, the evaluation performance of the R-type factor analysis model was validated. It indicates that the combination of R-type factor analysis and PNN model can provide a way for the risk grade evaluation of rock burst in coal mines.
Rock burst is one of the common dynamic disasters in coal mine production. Hence, the evaluation of the risk grade is the prerequisite for the implementation of countermeasures in the prevention and control of rock burst. Factors of geological and mining technique conditions were considered comprehensively,and 10 factors,including the coal seam thickness,dip angle,depth,geological tectonic situation,change of coal seam dip angle,change of coal seam thickness,gas concentration,roof control, state of pressure relief before excavation and shooting,were selected as evaluation indexes of the risk grade for rock burst. However, there exist somewhat correlations, large or small, between these factors. In order to improve the prediction precision of rock burst, the method of R-type factor analysis was utilized to synthesize 5 main factors from these 10 factors as new evaluation indexes to eliminate the information overlapping of these factors, and reduce the input dimension. Based on this, a PNN model for the evaluation of risk grade of rock burst in Yanshitai coal mine in Chongqing was established. The simulation results show that the PNN model presents a favorable performance for 5 different kinds of training and test samples, and the distinguishing-positive rates are 94.29%, 88.57%, 88.57%, 85.71% and 82.86% respectively. Meanwhile, the evaluation performance of the R-type factor analysis model was validated. It indicates that the combination of R-type factor analysis and PNN model can provide a way for the risk grade evaluation of rock burst in coal mines.
引文
[1] 姜耀东,潘一山,姜福兴,等.我国煤炭开采中的冲击地压机理和防治[J].煤炭学报,2014,39(2):205-213.JIANG Yaodong,PAN Yishan,JIANG Fuxing,et al.State of the art review on mechanism and prevention of coal bumps in China[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2014,39(2):205 -213.
[2] 钱鸣高,石平五,许家林.矿山压力与岩层控制[M].徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,2010.
[3] 杨巨文,唐治,何峰,等.矿用扩径式吸能构件吸能防冲特性研究[J].振动与冲击,2015,34(8):134-138.YANG Juwen,TANG Zhi,HE Feng,et al.Energy absorption and anti-impact properties of mine diameter-expanding energy absorption components[J].Journal of Vibration and Shock,2015,34(8):134-138.
[4] 唐治,潘一山,李祁,等.矿用防冲方形折纹薄壁构件吸能特性数值分析[J].振动与冲击,2014,33(23):87-91.TANG Zhi,PAN Yishan,LI Qi,et al.Numerical analysis of energy-absorption properties of a thin-walled component with square folds for rock burst prevention in mine[J].Journal of Vibration and Shock,2014,33(23):87-91.
[5] 姚精明,王路,闫永业,等.冲击地压巷道桁架锚索支护原理与实践[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2017,34(3):535-541.YAO Jingming,WANG Lu,YAN Yongye,et al.The supporting principle of truss cable in the rockburst roadway and its application[J].Journal of Mining & Safety Engineering,2017,34(3):535-541.
[6] 潘立友,魏辉,陈理强,等.工程缺陷防控冲击地压机理及应用[J].岩土工程学报,2017,39(1):56-61.PAN Liyou,WEI Hui,CHEN Liqiang,et al.Mechanism and application of using engineering defect to prevent and control rock burst[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2017,39(1):56-61.
[7] 李铁,王维,谢俊文,等.基于采动顶、底板岩层损伤的冲击地压预测[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2012,31(12):2438-2444.LI Tie,WANG Wei,XIE Junwen,et al.Rockbursts prediction based on rock damage of roof and floor induced by mining[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2012,31(12):2438-2444.
[8] 姜福兴,刘懿,翟明华,等.基于应力与围岩分类的冲击地压危险性评价研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2017,36(5):1041-1052.JIANG Fuxing,LIU Yi,ZHAI Minghua,et al.Evaluation of rock burst hazard based on the classification of stress and surrounding rock[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2017,36(5):1041-1052.
[9] 姜福兴,刘懿,杨伟利,等.郓城煤矿冲击地压与载荷三带关系研究[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2017,34(3):405-410.JIANG Fuxing,LIU Yi,YANG Weili,et al.Relationship between rock burst and the three zone structure loading model in Yuncheng coal mine[J].Journal of Mining & Safety Engineering,2017,34(3):405-410.
[10] SONG D,WANG E,CHAO W,et al.Electromagnetic radiation early warning criterion of rock burst based on statistical theory[J].International Journal of Mining Science and Technology,2010,20(5):686-690.
[11] 陈峰,潘一山,李忠华,等.利用钻屑法对卸压钻孔措施效果的分析评价[J].岩土工程学报,2013,35(增刊2):266-270.CHEN Feng,PAN Yishan,LI Zhonghua,et al.Analysis and evaluation of effects of borehole pressure relief measures by drilling cutting method[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2013,35(Sup 2):266-270.
[12] WOJTECKI L,KONICEK P.Estimation of active rockburst prevention effectiveness during longwall mining under disadvantageous geological and mining conditions[J].Journal of Sustainable Mining,2016,15(1):1-7.
[13] ZHU Q,FENG Y,CAI M,et al.Interpretation of the extent of hydraulic fracturing for rockburst prevention using microseismic monitoring data[J].Journal of Natural Gas Science & Engineering,2017,38:107-119.
[14] 夏永学,蓝航,魏向志,等.基于微震和地音监测的冲击危险性综合评价技术研究[J].煤炭学报,2011,36(增刊2):358-364.XIA Yongxue,LAN Hang,WEI Xiangzhi,et al.Study of comprehensive evaluation technology for rock burst hazard based on microseismic and underground sound monitoring[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2011,36(Sup 2):358-364.
[15] 周健,史秀志.冲击地压危险性等级预测的Fisher判别分析方法[J].煤炭学报,2010(增刊1):22-27.ZHOU Jian,SHI Xiuzhi.Fisher discriminant analysis method for prediction of classification of rock burst risk [J].Journal of China Coal Society,2010(Sup 1):22-27.
[16] 金佩剑,王恩元,刘晓斐,等.冲击地压危险性综合评价的突变级数法研究[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2013,30(2):256-261.JIN Peijian,WANG Enyuan,LIU Xiaofei,et al.Catastrophe progression method on comprehensive evaluation of rock burst[J].Journal of Mining & Safety Engineering,2013,30(2):256-261.
[17] 文畅平.基于Bayes判别分析法的冲击地压预测与危险性分级[J].自然灾害学报,2015(5):229-236.WEN Changping.Prediction and hazard classification of bumping geopressure based on Bayes discriminant analysis method[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2015(5):229-236.
[18] 王佳信,周宗红,赵婷,等.基于 Alpha 稳定分布概率神经网络的围岩稳定性分类研究[J].岩土力学,2016,37(增刊2):649-657.WANG Jiaxin,ZHOU Zonghong,ZHAO Ting,et al.Application of Alpha stable distribution probabilistic neural network to classification of surrounding rock stability assessment[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2016,37(Sup 2):649-657.
[19] 连远锋,李国和,吴发林,等.基于遗传PNN网络的组合导航故障诊断研究[J].仪器仪表学报,2012,33(1):120-126.LIAN Yuanfeng,LI Guohe,WU Falin,et al.Fault-diagnosis method for INS/GPS integrated navigation system based on PNN and genetic algorithm[J].Chinese Journal of Scientific Instrument,2012,33(1):120-126.
[20] 赵建军,贺宇航,黄润秋,等.基于因子分析法的边坡稳定性评价指标权重[J].西南交通大学学报,2015,50(2):325-330.ZHAO Jianjun,HE Yuhang,HUANG Runqiu,et al.Weights of slope stability evaluation indexes based on factor analysis method[J].Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University,2015,50(2):325-330.
[21] 任雪松,于秀林.多元统计分析:第2版[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2011.
[22] 吴子燕,杨海峰,覃小文,等.基于自适应概率神经网络的损伤模式识别研究[J].振动与冲击,2008,27(7):8-12.WU Ziyan,YANG Haifeng,QIN Xiaowen,et al.Damage patterns recognition study based on adaptive probabilistic neural network[J].Journal of Vibration and Shock,2008,27(7):8-12.
[23] 代高飞.岩石非线性动力学特征及冲击地压的研究[D].重庆:重庆大学,2002.
[24] BOVO B,NADAI C,VENDRAMINI C,et al.Aptitude of Saccharomyces yeasts to ferment unripe grapes harvested during cluster thinning for reducing alcohol content of wine[J].International Journal of Food Microbiology,2016,236:56.
[25] 白雪梅,赵松山.对主成分分析综合评价方法若干问题的探讨[J].统计研究,1995,12(6):47-51.BAI Xuemei,ZHAO Songshan.Discussion on several problems of comprehensive evaluation method of principal component analysis [J].Statistical Research,1995,12(6):47-51.
[26] 潘俊锋,夏永学,冯美华,等.影响冲击地压危险性评价结果的Ⅱ 类开采技术因素研究[J].岩土力学,2017,38(增刊1):367-373.PAN Junfeng,XIA Yongxue,FENG Meihua,et al.Study of II class mining technical factors influencing results of preassessment of rockburst risk[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2017,38(Sup 1):367-373.
[2] 钱鸣高,石平五,许家林.矿山压力与岩层控制[M].徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,2010.
[3] 杨巨文,唐治,何峰,等.矿用扩径式吸能构件吸能防冲特性研究[J].振动与冲击,2015,34(8):134-138.YANG Juwen,TANG Zhi,HE Feng,et al.Energy absorption and anti-impact properties of mine diameter-expanding energy absorption components[J].Journal of Vibration and Shock,2015,34(8):134-138.
[4] 唐治,潘一山,李祁,等.矿用防冲方形折纹薄壁构件吸能特性数值分析[J].振动与冲击,2014,33(23):87-91.TANG Zhi,PAN Yishan,LI Qi,et al.Numerical analysis of energy-absorption properties of a thin-walled component with square folds for rock burst prevention in mine[J].Journal of Vibration and Shock,2014,33(23):87-91.
[5] 姚精明,王路,闫永业,等.冲击地压巷道桁架锚索支护原理与实践[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2017,34(3):535-541.YAO Jingming,WANG Lu,YAN Yongye,et al.The supporting principle of truss cable in the rockburst roadway and its application[J].Journal of Mining & Safety Engineering,2017,34(3):535-541.
[6] 潘立友,魏辉,陈理强,等.工程缺陷防控冲击地压机理及应用[J].岩土工程学报,2017,39(1):56-61.PAN Liyou,WEI Hui,CHEN Liqiang,et al.Mechanism and application of using engineering defect to prevent and control rock burst[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2017,39(1):56-61.
[7] 李铁,王维,谢俊文,等.基于采动顶、底板岩层损伤的冲击地压预测[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2012,31(12):2438-2444.LI Tie,WANG Wei,XIE Junwen,et al.Rockbursts prediction based on rock damage of roof and floor induced by mining[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2012,31(12):2438-2444.
[8] 姜福兴,刘懿,翟明华,等.基于应力与围岩分类的冲击地压危险性评价研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2017,36(5):1041-1052.JIANG Fuxing,LIU Yi,ZHAI Minghua,et al.Evaluation of rock burst hazard based on the classification of stress and surrounding rock[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2017,36(5):1041-1052.
[9] 姜福兴,刘懿,杨伟利,等.郓城煤矿冲击地压与载荷三带关系研究[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2017,34(3):405-410.JIANG Fuxing,LIU Yi,YANG Weili,et al.Relationship between rock burst and the three zone structure loading model in Yuncheng coal mine[J].Journal of Mining & Safety Engineering,2017,34(3):405-410.
[10] SONG D,WANG E,CHAO W,et al.Electromagnetic radiation early warning criterion of rock burst based on statistical theory[J].International Journal of Mining Science and Technology,2010,20(5):686-690.
[11] 陈峰,潘一山,李忠华,等.利用钻屑法对卸压钻孔措施效果的分析评价[J].岩土工程学报,2013,35(增刊2):266-270.CHEN Feng,PAN Yishan,LI Zhonghua,et al.Analysis and evaluation of effects of borehole pressure relief measures by drilling cutting method[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2013,35(Sup 2):266-270.
[12] WOJTECKI L,KONICEK P.Estimation of active rockburst prevention effectiveness during longwall mining under disadvantageous geological and mining conditions[J].Journal of Sustainable Mining,2016,15(1):1-7.
[13] ZHU Q,FENG Y,CAI M,et al.Interpretation of the extent of hydraulic fracturing for rockburst prevention using microseismic monitoring data[J].Journal of Natural Gas Science & Engineering,2017,38:107-119.
[14] 夏永学,蓝航,魏向志,等.基于微震和地音监测的冲击危险性综合评价技术研究[J].煤炭学报,2011,36(增刊2):358-364.XIA Yongxue,LAN Hang,WEI Xiangzhi,et al.Study of comprehensive evaluation technology for rock burst hazard based on microseismic and underground sound monitoring[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2011,36(Sup 2):358-364.
[15] 周健,史秀志.冲击地压危险性等级预测的Fisher判别分析方法[J].煤炭学报,2010(增刊1):22-27.ZHOU Jian,SHI Xiuzhi.Fisher discriminant analysis method for prediction of classification of rock burst risk [J].Journal of China Coal Society,2010(Sup 1):22-27.
[16] 金佩剑,王恩元,刘晓斐,等.冲击地压危险性综合评价的突变级数法研究[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2013,30(2):256-261.JIN Peijian,WANG Enyuan,LIU Xiaofei,et al.Catastrophe progression method on comprehensive evaluation of rock burst[J].Journal of Mining & Safety Engineering,2013,30(2):256-261.
[17] 文畅平.基于Bayes判别分析法的冲击地压预测与危险性分级[J].自然灾害学报,2015(5):229-236.WEN Changping.Prediction and hazard classification of bumping geopressure based on Bayes discriminant analysis method[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2015(5):229-236.
[18] 王佳信,周宗红,赵婷,等.基于 Alpha 稳定分布概率神经网络的围岩稳定性分类研究[J].岩土力学,2016,37(增刊2):649-657.WANG Jiaxin,ZHOU Zonghong,ZHAO Ting,et al.Application of Alpha stable distribution probabilistic neural network to classification of surrounding rock stability assessment[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2016,37(Sup 2):649-657.
[19] 连远锋,李国和,吴发林,等.基于遗传PNN网络的组合导航故障诊断研究[J].仪器仪表学报,2012,33(1):120-126.LIAN Yuanfeng,LI Guohe,WU Falin,et al.Fault-diagnosis method for INS/GPS integrated navigation system based on PNN and genetic algorithm[J].Chinese Journal of Scientific Instrument,2012,33(1):120-126.
[20] 赵建军,贺宇航,黄润秋,等.基于因子分析法的边坡稳定性评价指标权重[J].西南交通大学学报,2015,50(2):325-330.ZHAO Jianjun,HE Yuhang,HUANG Runqiu,et al.Weights of slope stability evaluation indexes based on factor analysis method[J].Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University,2015,50(2):325-330.
[21] 任雪松,于秀林.多元统计分析:第2版[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2011.
[22] 吴子燕,杨海峰,覃小文,等.基于自适应概率神经网络的损伤模式识别研究[J].振动与冲击,2008,27(7):8-12.WU Ziyan,YANG Haifeng,QIN Xiaowen,et al.Damage patterns recognition study based on adaptive probabilistic neural network[J].Journal of Vibration and Shock,2008,27(7):8-12.
[23] 代高飞.岩石非线性动力学特征及冲击地压的研究[D].重庆:重庆大学,2002.
[24] BOVO B,NADAI C,VENDRAMINI C,et al.Aptitude of Saccharomyces yeasts to ferment unripe grapes harvested during cluster thinning for reducing alcohol content of wine[J].International Journal of Food Microbiology,2016,236:56.
[25] 白雪梅,赵松山.对主成分分析综合评价方法若干问题的探讨[J].统计研究,1995,12(6):47-51.BAI Xuemei,ZHAO Songshan.Discussion on several problems of comprehensive evaluation method of principal component analysis [J].Statistical Research,1995,12(6):47-51.
[26] 潘俊锋,夏永学,冯美华,等.影响冲击地压危险性评价结果的Ⅱ 类开采技术因素研究[J].岩土力学,2017,38(增刊1):367-373.PAN Junfeng,XIA Yongxue,FENG Meihua,et al.Study of II class mining technical factors influencing results of preassessment of rockburst risk[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2017,38(Sup 1):367-373.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |