中国市域居民住房支付能力时空演变及影响因素
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摘要
利用泰尔指数、σ系数、莫兰指数和空间回归模型等方法,对2012—2017年中国大陆346个市域单元收入房价比的时空演变规律进行分析,并探究其影响因素。结果表明:2012—2017年,中国市域单元收入房价比排名整体表现为东部>中部>东北>西部,其相对差异和绝对差异均随时间呈现增大趋势,居民住房支付能力稳步增强。2012—2017年,中国市域单元收入房价比的空间集聚性显著增强,空间分布不均衡性有逐渐增强的趋势。经济水平、城镇化水平、房地产投资水平、城市规模是影响中国市域住房支付能力的主要影响因素,其中,经济水平和城镇化水平对居民住房支付能力具有较大的正向影响,而房地产投资水平和城市规模为负向影响;2012—2017年我国东北和东中西部则不同程度上受不同影响因素的影响。
Income to housing price ratio is the measurer of housing affordability,the indicator of bubbles in the real estate market,and one of the important indexes in subjectively measuring the well-being of citizens.As an important index of measuring whether the housing price matches residents' income,the ratio of income to housing price has distinctive regional characteristics.Most of the studies of China's housing affordability ignore the spatial effects of geography,lack of intuitive spatial and temporal patterns,and do not find the influencing factors of regional residential housing affordability from the perspective of geography.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to explore the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and influencing factors of China's housing affordability from the perspective of geography.This paper takes the income to housing price ratio as the measurement index,explores the law of the evolution and influencing factors of the income to housing price ratio of 346 municipal units in mainland China from 2012 to 2017 with the Theil index,the σ coefficient,the spatial classification method,the Moran' I index and the spatial regression model.The results show as follows:(1) From 2012 to 2017,the overall ranking of municipal unit income to housing price ratio in China is East>Central>Northeast>West.The relative and absolute differences are increasing,and the housing affordability is steadily increasing.(2) From 2012 to 2017,the spatial differentiation of the income to housing price ratio is significant.The spatial polarization effect is significantly enhanced in China.The regions with the lower-level ratios are mostly concentrated in the eastern part of China,the medium-level areas are mostly distributed in the central and northeastern part of China,and the higher-level areas are mostly distributed in the western part of China.The number of municipal research units in a reasonable range of the income to housing price ratio has increased significantly,accounting for 66.8% of the total in 2017.China's income to housing price ratio has a significant spatial agglomeration,the Moran' I index is gradually increasing.The number of income to housing price ratio increases in both HH and LL districts,and there is a positive correlation feature.(3) Per capita gross domestic product(X1),urbanization rate(X2),per capita real estate investment level(X5),and city size(X7) are the main influencing factors affecting China's income to housing price ratio.From 2012 to 2017,the per capita GDP(X1) has a significant positive impact on the ratio in the eastern,central and western regions; the urbanization rate(X2) has a significant impact on the ratio in the northeast regions from 2014 to 2017 positively and in the east regions from 2016 to 2017 negatively; the industrialization level(X3,X4) has a significant negative impact on the ratio in the western regions from 2014 to 2017;the level of real estate investment(X5) has a significant negative impact on the ratio in the northeast and east regions; the per capita fiscal revenue(X6) has a significant negative impact on the ratio in the eastern regions from 2012 to 2017;the city size(X7) has a significant negative impact on the ratio in the northeast,east,central and western regions from 2012 to 2017.
Income to housing price ratio is the measurer of housing affordability,the indicator of bubbles in the real estate market,and one of the important indexes in subjectively measuring the well-being of citizens.As an important index of measuring whether the housing price matches residents' income,the ratio of income to housing price has distinctive regional characteristics.Most of the studies of China's housing affordability ignore the spatial effects of geography,lack of intuitive spatial and temporal patterns,and do not find the influencing factors of regional residential housing affordability from the perspective of geography.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to explore the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and influencing factors of China's housing affordability from the perspective of geography.This paper takes the income to housing price ratio as the measurement index,explores the law of the evolution and influencing factors of the income to housing price ratio of 346 municipal units in mainland China from 2012 to 2017 with the Theil index,the σ coefficient,the spatial classification method,the Moran' I index and the spatial regression model.The results show as follows:(1) From 2012 to 2017,the overall ranking of municipal unit income to housing price ratio in China is East>Central>Northeast>West.The relative and absolute differences are increasing,and the housing affordability is steadily increasing.(2) From 2012 to 2017,the spatial differentiation of the income to housing price ratio is significant.The spatial polarization effect is significantly enhanced in China.The regions with the lower-level ratios are mostly concentrated in the eastern part of China,the medium-level areas are mostly distributed in the central and northeastern part of China,and the higher-level areas are mostly distributed in the western part of China.The number of municipal research units in a reasonable range of the income to housing price ratio has increased significantly,accounting for 66.8% of the total in 2017.China's income to housing price ratio has a significant spatial agglomeration,the Moran' I index is gradually increasing.The number of income to housing price ratio increases in both HH and LL districts,and there is a positive correlation feature.(3) Per capita gross domestic product(X1),urbanization rate(X2),per capita real estate investment level(X5),and city size(X7) are the main influencing factors affecting China's income to housing price ratio.From 2012 to 2017,the per capita GDP(X1) has a significant positive impact on the ratio in the eastern,central and western regions; the urbanization rate(X2) has a significant impact on the ratio in the northeast regions from 2014 to 2017 positively and in the east regions from 2016 to 2017 negatively; the industrialization level(X3,X4) has a significant negative impact on the ratio in the western regions from 2014 to 2017;the level of real estate investment(X5) has a significant negative impact on the ratio in the northeast and east regions; the per capita fiscal revenue(X6) has a significant negative impact on the ratio in the eastern regions from 2012 to 2017;the city size(X7) has a significant negative impact on the ratio in the northeast,east,central and western regions from 2012 to 2017.
引文
[1] LAU K M,Li S M.Commercial housing affordability in Beijing,1992—2002[J].Habitat International,2006,30(3):614-627.
[2] 简德三,王洪卫.房地产经济学[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2003.[JIAN Desan,WANG Hongwei.Real estate economics[M].Shanghai:Shanghai University of Finance and Economics Press,2003.]
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[4] STIGLER G J.The early history of empirical studies of consumer behavior[J].Journal of Political Economy,1954,62(2):95-113.
[5] MALPEZZI S.Urban housing and financial markets:Some international comparisons[J].Urban Studies,1990,27(6):971-1022.
[6] BLACK A,FRASER P.House prices,fundamentals and bubbles[J].Journal of Business Finance&Accounting,2006,33(9-10):1535-1555.
[7] CARLINER M.House price bubble babble[J].Housing Economics,2002,50(4):10-17.
[8] MALPEZZI S.A simple error correction model of house prices[J].Journal of Housing Economics,1999,8(1):27-62.
[9] CAMPBELL J Y,SHILLER R J.Counteraction and tests of present value models[J].Journal of Political Economy,1987,95(5):1062-1088.
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[12] 丁祖昱.中国房价收入比的城市分异研究[J].华东师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2013,45(3):121-127.[DING Zuyu.On the differentiation of housing price to income ratio in Chinese Cities[J].Journal of East China Normal University (Humanities and Social Sciences) ,2013,45(3):121-127.]
[13] 张清勇.中国城镇居民的住房支付能力:1991—2005[J].财贸经济,2007,28(4):79-84.[ZHANG Qingyong.Urban housing affordability in China:1991—2005 [J].Finance & Trade Economics,2007,28(4):79-84.]
[14] 刘丹,霍德明.基于时空模型的中国房价收入关系研究[J].中国经济问题,2010,52(6):3-10.[LIU Dan,HUO Deming.Research on China’s housing price income relationship based on spatiotemporal model[J].China Economic Studies,2010,52(6):3-10.]
[15] 谭峻,赵妍.房价收入比的实证研究——基于北京和全国整体数据的分析[J].中国土地科学,2012,26(9):66-70.[TAN Jun,ZHAO Yan.An empirical study of the housing-price-to-income ratio:Evidences from Beijing and China[J].China Land Science,2012,26(9):66-70.]
[16] 杨建云.房价收入比分布规律及分析——基于河南省与全国数据对比[J].地域研究与开发,2016,35(4):63-67.[YANG Janyun.Analysis of spatial distribution law of housing price to income:Based on comparison from Henan Province and China[J].Areal Research and Development,2016,35(4):63-67.]
[17] 薛莉苇,赵晓军,许健.房价收入比影响因素分析[J].浙江社会科学,2010,26(3):17-20.[XUE Liwei,ZHAO Xiaojun,XU Jian.Analysis of factors affecting housing price income ratio[J].Zhejiang Social Sciences,2010,26(3):17-20.]
[18] 赵奉军.房价收入比的城际差异与影响因素——基于地级市的实证研究[J].中国房地产,2015,21(3):3-12.[ZHAO Fengjun.Diversity and determinant of price to income ratio among Cities:Empirical research from prefectural-level cities[J].China Real Estate,2015,21(3):3-12.]
[19] 司武飞,朱德开.论收入房价比指标[J].建筑经济,2007,28(11):33-35.[SI Wufei,ZHU Dekai.On the index of housing price income ratio[J].Construction Economy,2007,28(11):33-35.]
[20] 董昕.动态趋势与结构性差异:中国住房市场支付能力的综合测度[J].经济管理,2012,(6):119-127.[DONG Xin.Dynamic trends and structural differences:A comprehensive measure of housing affordability in China [J].Business Management Journal,2012,(6):119-127.]
[21] KIM K H.Housing prices,affordability,and government policy in Korea[J].Journal of Real Estate Finance & Economics,1993,6(1):55-71.
[22] BRAMLEY G.An affordability crisis in British housing:Dimensions,causes and policy impact[J].Housing Studies,1994,9(1):103-124.
[23] 张媛媛,曹宗平,王凯风.城镇化、房价与城乡收入差距——基于2005—2015年省级面板数据的经验研究[J].经济问题探索,2018,38(4):26-36.[ZHANG Yuanyuan,CAO Zongping,WANG Kaifeng.Urbanization,housing price and urban-rural income gap:An empirical study based on provincial panel data from 2005 to 2015[J].Inquiry into Economic Issues,2018,38(4):26-36.]
[24] 康珈瑜,梁留科,张忠良,等.长江经济带差距时空演变及影响因素(2000—2015年)[J].华东经济管理,2017,31(12):67-75.[KANG Jiayu,LIANG Liuke,ZHANG Zhongliang.Temporal and spatial pattern evolution and its influential factors of urban-rural income gap in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2000 to 2015[J].East China Economic Management,2017,31(12):67-75.]
[25] GANS J,KING S.The housing lifeline:A housing affordability policy[J].Agenda A Journal of Policy Analysis & Reform,2004,11(2):143-155.
[26] MAK S W K,CHOY L H T,HO W K O.Privatization,housing conditions and affordability in the People’s Republic of China[J].Habitat International,2007,31(2):177-192.
[2] 简德三,王洪卫.房地产经济学[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2003.[JIAN Desan,WANG Hongwei.Real estate economics[M].Shanghai:Shanghai University of Finance and Economics Press,2003.]
[3] WEICHER J C.The affordability of new homes[J].Real Estate Economics,1977,5(2):209-226.
[4] STIGLER G J.The early history of empirical studies of consumer behavior[J].Journal of Political Economy,1954,62(2):95-113.
[5] MALPEZZI S.Urban housing and financial markets:Some international comparisons[J].Urban Studies,1990,27(6):971-1022.
[6] BLACK A,FRASER P.House prices,fundamentals and bubbles[J].Journal of Business Finance&Accounting,2006,33(9-10):1535-1555.
[7] CARLINER M.House price bubble babble[J].Housing Economics,2002,50(4):10-17.
[8] MALPEZZI S.A simple error correction model of house prices[J].Journal of Housing Economics,1999,8(1):27-62.
[9] CAMPBELL J Y,SHILLER R J.Counteraction and tests of present value models[J].Journal of Political Economy,1987,95(5):1062-1088.
[10] 潘竟虎,杨亮洁.中国地级及以上城市房价收入比的时空分异[J].干旱区地理,2017,40(6):1274-1281.[PAN Jinghu,YANG Liangjie.Spatial-temporal differentiation of housing price-to-income ratio at prefecture level cities in China[J].Arid Land Geography,2017,40(6):1274-1281.]
[11] 刘海猛,石培基,潘竟虎,等.中国城镇房价收入比时空演变的多尺度分析[J].地理科学,2015,35(10):1280-1287.[LIU Haimeng,SHI Peiji,PAN Jinghu,et al.Spatial-temporal evolution on housing price to income ratio of China by multiscale analysis[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2015,35(10):1280-1287.]
[12] 丁祖昱.中国房价收入比的城市分异研究[J].华东师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2013,45(3):121-127.[DING Zuyu.On the differentiation of housing price to income ratio in Chinese Cities[J].Journal of East China Normal University (Humanities and Social Sciences) ,2013,45(3):121-127.]
[13] 张清勇.中国城镇居民的住房支付能力:1991—2005[J].财贸经济,2007,28(4):79-84.[ZHANG Qingyong.Urban housing affordability in China:1991—2005 [J].Finance & Trade Economics,2007,28(4):79-84.]
[14] 刘丹,霍德明.基于时空模型的中国房价收入关系研究[J].中国经济问题,2010,52(6):3-10.[LIU Dan,HUO Deming.Research on China’s housing price income relationship based on spatiotemporal model[J].China Economic Studies,2010,52(6):3-10.]
[15] 谭峻,赵妍.房价收入比的实证研究——基于北京和全国整体数据的分析[J].中国土地科学,2012,26(9):66-70.[TAN Jun,ZHAO Yan.An empirical study of the housing-price-to-income ratio:Evidences from Beijing and China[J].China Land Science,2012,26(9):66-70.]
[16] 杨建云.房价收入比分布规律及分析——基于河南省与全国数据对比[J].地域研究与开发,2016,35(4):63-67.[YANG Janyun.Analysis of spatial distribution law of housing price to income:Based on comparison from Henan Province and China[J].Areal Research and Development,2016,35(4):63-67.]
[17] 薛莉苇,赵晓军,许健.房价收入比影响因素分析[J].浙江社会科学,2010,26(3):17-20.[XUE Liwei,ZHAO Xiaojun,XU Jian.Analysis of factors affecting housing price income ratio[J].Zhejiang Social Sciences,2010,26(3):17-20.]
[18] 赵奉军.房价收入比的城际差异与影响因素——基于地级市的实证研究[J].中国房地产,2015,21(3):3-12.[ZHAO Fengjun.Diversity and determinant of price to income ratio among Cities:Empirical research from prefectural-level cities[J].China Real Estate,2015,21(3):3-12.]
[19] 司武飞,朱德开.论收入房价比指标[J].建筑经济,2007,28(11):33-35.[SI Wufei,ZHU Dekai.On the index of housing price income ratio[J].Construction Economy,2007,28(11):33-35.]
[20] 董昕.动态趋势与结构性差异:中国住房市场支付能力的综合测度[J].经济管理,2012,(6):119-127.[DONG Xin.Dynamic trends and structural differences:A comprehensive measure of housing affordability in China [J].Business Management Journal,2012,(6):119-127.]
[21] KIM K H.Housing prices,affordability,and government policy in Korea[J].Journal of Real Estate Finance & Economics,1993,6(1):55-71.
[22] BRAMLEY G.An affordability crisis in British housing:Dimensions,causes and policy impact[J].Housing Studies,1994,9(1):103-124.
[23] 张媛媛,曹宗平,王凯风.城镇化、房价与城乡收入差距——基于2005—2015年省级面板数据的经验研究[J].经济问题探索,2018,38(4):26-36.[ZHANG Yuanyuan,CAO Zongping,WANG Kaifeng.Urbanization,housing price and urban-rural income gap:An empirical study based on provincial panel data from 2005 to 2015[J].Inquiry into Economic Issues,2018,38(4):26-36.]
[24] 康珈瑜,梁留科,张忠良,等.长江经济带差距时空演变及影响因素(2000—2015年)[J].华东经济管理,2017,31(12):67-75.[KANG Jiayu,LIANG Liuke,ZHANG Zhongliang.Temporal and spatial pattern evolution and its influential factors of urban-rural income gap in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2000 to 2015[J].East China Economic Management,2017,31(12):67-75.]
[25] GANS J,KING S.The housing lifeline:A housing affordability policy[J].Agenda A Journal of Policy Analysis & Reform,2004,11(2):143-155.
[26] MAK S W K,CHOY L H T,HO W K O.Privatization,housing conditions and affordability in the People’s Republic of China[J].Habitat International,2007,31(2):177-192.
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