“山竹”台风影响地区的小时降雨动态变化及危险性动态评估
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摘要
台风暴雨对台风登陆地区有着很大的影响。为探究台风暴雨事件的具体变化过程,以2018年的超强台风"山竹"为例,分析了该台风登陆我国东南沿海地区前后73 h的逐小时降雨变化过程,并评估了暴雨灾害危险性和其动态变化。主要内容和结论包括:①计算该事件的总降雨量与最大小时降雨强度探究事件的整体特征,总降雨量达到389 mm,最大小时降雨强度达到74 mm,且均发生在广东省境内;②计算小时降雨面积分析此次事件的动态变化过程,同时探究台风登陆前、中、后的平均小时降雨面积比例的变化,发现降雨强度在台风登陆前与中最大,随着台风消退而减小,降雨范围随着台风路径移动并逐渐扩大,在台风消退后逐渐缩小;③评估此次事件的暴雨灾害危险性,高危险区出现在广东与海南部分地区,分析台风登陆前后的危险性变化发现台风登陆后12 h内是暴雨灾害危险性最高的时期。分析此次事件的降雨变化过程及评估其暴雨灾害危险性主要目的是为台风暴雨灾害预测研究提供案例与研究经验。
The typhoon storm has a great impact on the typhoon landing area. In order to explore the changing process of a typhoon storm event,the super typhoon"Manghut "in 2018 as an example to study the 73-hour hourly rainfall change before and after the typhoon landed in China and explore the dynamic change of rainstorm hazard.The overall characteristics of the event are reflected in the total rainfall and hourly rainfall intensity. The total rainfall reached 389 mm and the maximum hourly rainfall intensity reached 74 mm,both of which occurred in Guangdong Province. The hourly rainfall area was calculated to analyze the dynamic change process of the event,and explore the change of the average hourly rainfall area before,during and after the typhoon landing. It is found that the rainfall intensity is the highest before and after the typhoon landing,and decreases with the typhoon subsiding. The rainfall range moves with the typhoon path and gradually expands,gradually shrinking after the typhoon subsides.Finally,the hazard of heavy rain disasters was assessed. The high-hazard areas appeared in parts of Guangdong and Hainan. It found that the highest hazard of rainstorm within 12 hours after the typhoon landed. The main purpose of analyzing the rainfall change process and assessing the hazard of heavy rain disasters is to provide case and research experience for the prediction of typhoon storm disasters.
The typhoon storm has a great impact on the typhoon landing area. In order to explore the changing process of a typhoon storm event,the super typhoon"Manghut "in 2018 as an example to study the 73-hour hourly rainfall change before and after the typhoon landed in China and explore the dynamic change of rainstorm hazard.The overall characteristics of the event are reflected in the total rainfall and hourly rainfall intensity. The total rainfall reached 389 mm and the maximum hourly rainfall intensity reached 74 mm,both of which occurred in Guangdong Province. The hourly rainfall area was calculated to analyze the dynamic change process of the event,and explore the change of the average hourly rainfall area before,during and after the typhoon landing. It is found that the rainfall intensity is the highest before and after the typhoon landing,and decreases with the typhoon subsiding. The rainfall range moves with the typhoon path and gradually expands,gradually shrinking after the typhoon subsides.Finally,the hazard of heavy rain disasters was assessed. The high-hazard areas appeared in parts of Guangdong and Hainan. It found that the highest hazard of rainstorm within 12 hours after the typhoon landed. The main purpose of analyzing the rainfall change process and assessing the hazard of heavy rain disasters is to provide case and research experience for the prediction of typhoon storm disasters.
引文
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[2]饶品增,蒋卫国,贾凯,等. 2013年黑龙江省洪水对植被影响评估[J].灾害学,2017,32(4):195-201.
[3]程正泉,陈联寿,徐祥德,等.近10年中国台风暴雨研究进展[J].气象,2005(12):3-9.
[4]俞布,缪启龙,潘文卓,等.杭州市台风暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划与评价[J].气象,2011,37(11):1415-1422.
[5]马艳,黄容,于进付,等.青岛环胶州湾地区暴雨特征及暴雨灾害风险分析[J].灾害学,2012,27(4):42-46.
[6]何慧,陆虹,欧艺.强台风“黑格比”暴雨洪涝特征及成因分析[J].热带地理,2009,29(5):440-444.
[7]郭宇光,钱燕珍,方艳莹,等.“杜鹃”登陆减弱后所致的宁波大暴雨成因分析[J].暴雨灾害,2018,37(4):356-363.
[8]蒋卫国,李京,陈云浩,等.区域洪水灾害风险评估体系(Ⅰ)———原理与方法[J].自然灾害学报,2008,17(6):53-59.
[9] Messner F,Meyer V. Flood Damage,Vulnerability and Risk Perception-Challenges for Flood Damage Research[M]. J. Schanze,E. Zeman,J. Marsalek. Flood Risk Management:Hazards,Vulnerability and Mitigation Measures. Dordrecht:Springer Netherlands,2006,67:149–167.
[10]张小莹.我国极端降水时空特征及风险分析[D].上海:上海师范大学,2014.
[11]方建,李梦婕,王静爱,等.全球暴雨洪水灾害风险评估与制图[J].自然灾害学报,2015,24(1):1-8.
[12]盛绍学,石磊,刘家福,等.沿淮湖泊洼地区域暴雨洪涝风险评估[J].地理研究,2010,29(3):416-422.
[13]今年第22号台风“山竹”生成-资讯-中国天气网[EB/OL]./2019-01-21. http://news. weather. com. cn/2018/09/2926491. shtml.
[14]台风“山竹”17时在广东台山海宴镇登陆|每经网[EB/OL].[2019-01-21]. http://www. nbd. com. cn/articles/2018-09-16/1255414. html.
[15]台风海洋>>台风快讯[EB/OL].[2019-01-21]. http://www. nmc. cn/publish/typhoon/typhoon_new. html.
[16] WANG Z,LAI C,CHEN X,et al. Flood hazard risk assessment model based on random forest[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2015,527:1130–1141.
[17]刘光孟,汪云甲,王允.反距离权重插值因子对插值误差影响分析[J].中国科技论文在线,2010,5(11):879–884.
[18]吴雷.基于RS&GIS的暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估[D].武汉:华中师范大学,2015.
[19]王一鸣,殷坤龙,龚新法,等.台风暴雨型泥石流风险区划方法研究———以温州山区泥石流为例[J].灾害学,2017,32(3):80–86.
[20]蒋卫国,盛绍学,朱晓华,等.区域洪水灾害风险格局演变分析———以马来西亚吉兰丹州为例[J].地理研究,2008(3):502-508,727.
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