基于降水量距平百分率的内蒙古地区干旱特征
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摘要
利用1971—2015年内蒙古地区52个气象站逐月降水量观测数据,采用降水量距平百分率(P_a),从干旱频率和干旱变化趋势率分析了研究区近45 a来干旱时空分布特征。结果表明:从时间变化来看,年降水量呈微弱的下降趋势,并于1998年和2012年发生突变;春季、秋季和冬季降水量变化呈上升趋势,夏季降水量变化呈下降趋势;年尺度干旱主要发生在1999—2011年;季节尺度干旱发生频率为冬旱>春旱>秋旱>夏旱。从空间变化来看,多年平均降水量由东向西呈逐级递减趋势,降水分布地域特征明显,大兴安岭以东地区和巴彦淖尔市西部地区降水变化趋势率较高,呼伦贝尔市西北部、通辽市中南部、赤峰市中部、阿拉善盟西部地区降水变化趋势率较低;发生不同等级干旱的几率为轻旱>特旱>中旱>重旱,各级干旱易发生地区集中在呼伦贝尔市西部、赤峰市中北部、通辽市北部、锡林郭勒盟中西部以及阿拉善盟西部地区。P_a变化趋势率表现为,呼伦贝尔市中东部、巴彦淖尔市西部和阿拉善盟东部呈上升趋势,即干旱程度减轻;兴安盟南部至鄂尔多斯市、阿拉善盟中西部呈下降趋势,即干旱程度加重。
The monthly precipitation data from 52 meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia from 1971 to 2015 were used. The methods of M-K test and precipitation anomaly percentage (P_a) were used to analyze the change trend and abrupt change of precipitation,and the spatiotemporal variation of drought at different time scales was also analyzed. The results showed that the inter-annual precipitation variation trend was basically maintained,and two abrupt changes took place in 1998 and 2012 in recent 45 years. Precipitation increased in spring,autumn and winter,but it was opposite in summer. Drought events occurred mainly in winter during the period from 1999 to 2011,and their frequency was the lowest in summer. Spatially,the annual precipitation decreased gradually from the east to the west. The change rate of precipitation was high in the area east of the Greater Khingan Mountains and west Bayan Nur,but it was low in Northwest Hulun Buir,central and southern parts of Tongliao,central part of Chifeng,and western Alxa. In addition,the probability of occurring drought at different levels was in an order of slight drought > extreme drought > moderate drought > severe drought. Drought events occurred generally in west Hulun Buir,Central-North Chifeng,North Tongliao,Central-West Xilin Gol League and West Alxa League. The P_awas in an increase trend in Central-East Hulun Buir,West Bayan Nur and East Alxa League,but it was in a decrease trend from South Hinggan League to Erdos and in Central-West Alxa.
The monthly precipitation data from 52 meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia from 1971 to 2015 were used. The methods of M-K test and precipitation anomaly percentage (P_a) were used to analyze the change trend and abrupt change of precipitation,and the spatiotemporal variation of drought at different time scales was also analyzed. The results showed that the inter-annual precipitation variation trend was basically maintained,and two abrupt changes took place in 1998 and 2012 in recent 45 years. Precipitation increased in spring,autumn and winter,but it was opposite in summer. Drought events occurred mainly in winter during the period from 1999 to 2011,and their frequency was the lowest in summer. Spatially,the annual precipitation decreased gradually from the east to the west. The change rate of precipitation was high in the area east of the Greater Khingan Mountains and west Bayan Nur,but it was low in Northwest Hulun Buir,central and southern parts of Tongliao,central part of Chifeng,and western Alxa. In addition,the probability of occurring drought at different levels was in an order of slight drought > extreme drought > moderate drought > severe drought. Drought events occurred generally in west Hulun Buir,Central-North Chifeng,North Tongliao,Central-West Xilin Gol League and West Alxa League. The P_awas in an increase trend in Central-East Hulun Buir,West Bayan Nur and East Alxa League,but it was in a decrease trend from South Hinggan League to Erdos and in Central-West Alxa.
引文
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[2]温克刚,沈建国.中国气象灾害大典:内蒙古卷[M].北京:气象出版社,2008.[Wen Kegang,Shen Jianguo.China Meteorological Disaster Canon:Inner Mongolia Volume[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2008.]
[3]刘浏,刘丽丽,索滢.近53 a黑河流域水文气象要素时空演变特征[J].干旱区研究,2017,34(3):465-478.[Liu Liu,Liu Lili,Suo Ying.Spatiotemporal evolution of hydro-meteorological variables in the Heihe River Basin in recent 53 years[J].Arid Zone Research,2017,34(3):465-478.]
[4]韩芳,刘朋涛,牛建明,等.50 a来内蒙古荒漠草原气候干燥度的空间分布及其演变特征[J].干旱区研究,2013,30(3):449-456.[Han Fang,Liu Pengtao,Niu Jianming,et al.Spatial distribution and evolution of climatic aridity in desert steppe in Inner Mongolia in recent 50 years[J].Arid Zone Research,2013,30(3):449-456.]
[5]白美兰,李金田,李喜仓,等.近50年内蒙古中东部地区春夏季干旱特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2013,27(5):131-136.[Bai Meilan,Li Jintian,Li Xicang,et al.Spring and summer drought characteristics in central and eastern Inner Mongolia nearly50 years[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2013,27(5):131-136.]
[6]张煦庭,潘学标,徐琳,等.基于降水蒸发指数的1960-2015年内蒙古干旱时空特征[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(15):190-199.[Zhang Xuting,Pan Xuebiao,Xu Lin,et al.Analysis of spatio-temporal distribution of drought characteristics based on SPEI in Inner Mongolia During 1960-2015[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2017,33(15):190-199.]
[7]王学强,白利云,刘志刚,等.锡林郭勒盟近50 a降水变化及旱涝年分析[J].内蒙古气象,2012(5):6-8.[Wang Xueqiang,Bai Liyun,Liu Zhigang,et al.Analysis on the precipitation change in recent 50 years and floods and drought years in Xilin Gol League[J].Meteorology Journal of Inner Mongolia,2012(5):6-8.]
[8]韩志慧,刘小刚,郝琨,等.基于SPI指数的内蒙古地区干旱演变特征及趋势预测[J].排灌机械工程学报,2017,35(5):430-439.[Han Zhihui,Liu Xiaogang,Hao Kun,et al.Drought evolution characteristics and trend prediction in Inner Mongolia based on Standardized Precipitation Index[J].Journal of Drainage and Irrigation Machinery Engineering,2017,35(5):430-439.]
[9]周扬,李宁,吉中会,等.基于SPI指数的1981-2010年内蒙古地区干旱时空分布特征[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(10):1 694-1 706.[Zhou Yang,Li Ning,Ji Zhonghui,et al.Temporal and spatial patterns of droughts based on standard precipitation index(SPI)in Inner Mongolia during 1981-2010[J].Journal of Natural Resource,2013,28(10):1 694-1 706.]
[10]Mishra A K,Desai V R.Drought forecasting using stochastic models[J].Stochastic Environmental Research&Risk Assessment,2005,19(5):326-339.
[11]GB/T 20481-2017,气象干旱等级[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2017.[GB/T 20481-2017,Grades of Meteorological Drought[S].Beijing:China Standards Press,2017.]
[12]Gerstengarbe F W,Werner P C.Estimation of the beginning and end of recurrent events within a climate regime[J].Climate Research,1999(11):97-107.
[13]牟乐,芦奕晓,杨惠敏,等.1981-2015年中国西北牧区植被覆盖的时空变化[J].干旱区研究,2018,35(3):615-623.[Mou Le,Lu Yixiao,Yang Huimin,et al.Spatiotemporal variation of vegetation cover in the pastoral area in Northwestern China during the period of 1981-2015[J].Arid Zone Research,2018,35(3):615-623.]
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