苏州市大气PM_(2.5)浓度与心脑血管疾病死亡的时间序列分析
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摘要
目的探讨苏州市PM_(2.5)对居民心脑血管疾病死亡的影响。方法收集2016年1月1日～2017年12月31日苏州市居民人群死亡数据、大气污染物的数据、气象资料,采用广义相加泊松回归模型分析PM_(2.5)与居民每日心脑血管疾病死亡人数之间的关系,计算PM_(2.5)质量浓度每上升一个四分位数间距(interquartile range,IQR)的相对危险度(relative risk,RR值)及其95%可信区间。结果 2016-2017年苏州市居民因心脑血管疾病死亡总人数为30 200人,平均为41例/d。PM_(2.5)的日均中位浓度为37.13μg/m~3,IQR为30.75μg/m~3。在最佳滞后条件下,PM_(2.5)浓度每上升一个IQR,苏州市居民心脑血管疾病单日死亡效应和平均死亡效应RR值分别为1.017(1.001～1.034)和1.055(1.019～1.093)。分层分析结果显示,女性和>65岁老年人群的心脑血管疾病的死亡风险更高。结论苏州市PM_(2.5)浓度的升高可能引起人群心脑血管疾病死亡风险的增加。
Objective To explore the effect of PM_(2.5) on the mortality of cardio-cerebrovascular disease in Suzhou, China. Methods The death data, air pollutant data and meteorological data from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2017 in Suzhou were collected. The general additive Poisson regression model was used to analyse the association of exposure to PM_(2.5) with the daily deaths due to cardio-cerebrovascular disease, and to calculate the relative risk(RR) and 95% confidence intervals(95%CI) for an interquartile range(IQR) increase in PM_(2.5). Results The number of deaths from cardio-cerebrovascular disease was 30 200. On average, there were approximately 41 deaths per day. The daily median concentration of PM_(2.5) was 37.13 μg/m~3 and IQR was 30.75 μg/m~3. The RR values of single-day death and average death from cardio-cerebrovascular disease were 1.017(1.001-1.034) and 1.055(1.019-1.093)with an IQR increase of PM_(2.5) concentration, respectively. Stratified by gender and age, female and the elderly aged over 65 had higher risks of death from the cardio-cerebrovascular disease. Conclusion The elevated level of ambient PM_(2.5)was positively associated with the increase of mortality of cardio-cerebrovascular disease.
Objective To explore the effect of PM_(2.5) on the mortality of cardio-cerebrovascular disease in Suzhou, China. Methods The death data, air pollutant data and meteorological data from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2017 in Suzhou were collected. The general additive Poisson regression model was used to analyse the association of exposure to PM_(2.5) with the daily deaths due to cardio-cerebrovascular disease, and to calculate the relative risk(RR) and 95% confidence intervals(95%CI) for an interquartile range(IQR) increase in PM_(2.5). Results The number of deaths from cardio-cerebrovascular disease was 30 200. On average, there were approximately 41 deaths per day. The daily median concentration of PM_(2.5) was 37.13 μg/m~3 and IQR was 30.75 μg/m~3. The RR values of single-day death and average death from cardio-cerebrovascular disease were 1.017(1.001-1.034) and 1.055(1.019-1.093)with an IQR increase of PM_(2.5) concentration, respectively. Stratified by gender and age, female and the elderly aged over 65 had higher risks of death from the cardio-cerebrovascular disease. Conclusion The elevated level of ambient PM_(2.5)was positively associated with the increase of mortality of cardio-cerebrovascular disease.
引文
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[11] Dabass A,Talbott EO,Bilonick RA,et al.Using spatio-temporal modeling for exposure assessment in an investigation of fine particulate air pollution and cardiovascular mortality [J].Environ Res,2016,151:564-572.DOI:10.1016/j.envres.2016.08.024.
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[13] Stafoggia M,Cesaroni G,Peters A,et al.Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and incidence of cerebrovascular events:results from 11 European cohorts within the ESCAPE project [J].Environ Health Perspect,2014,122(9):919-925.DOI:10.1289/ehp.1307301.
[14] Mei MX,Yu PJ,Guo XL,et al.Relationship between ambient fine particles and ventricular repolarization changes and heart rate variability of elderly people with heart disease in Beijing,China [J].Biomed Environ Sci,2013,26(8):629-637.DOI:10.3967/0895-3988.2013.08.001.
[15] Dong H,Yu Y,Yao S,et al.Acute effects of air pollution on ischaemic stroke onset and deaths:a time-series study in Changzhou,China [J].BMJ Open,2018,8(7):e020425.DOI:10.1136/bmjopen-2017-020425.
[2] 施卫星,宋颂,李秀央.大气颗粒物与心脑血管疾病之间关系的研究进展 [J].中华流行病学杂志,2012,33(9):983-987.DOI:10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2012.09.024.Shi WX,Song S,Li XY.Advancement in research on association particulate matter and cardio-cerebral-vascular disease [J].Chin J Epidemiol,2012,33(9):983-987.DOI:10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2012.09.024.
[3] 陈浪,赵川,关茗洋,等.石家庄市大气颗粒污染物浓度与居民死亡率的时间序列分析 [J].中华疾病控制杂志,2018,22(3):272-277.DOI:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2018.03.014.Chen L,Zhao C,Guan MY,et al.Time-series analysis of the relationship between particulate matter and mortality in Shijiazhuang [J].Chin J Control Prev,2018,22(3):272-277.DOI:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2018.03.014.
[4] Zhang Z,Wang J,Chen L,et al.Impact of haze and air pollution-related hazards on hospital admissions in Guangzhou,China [J].Environ Sci Pollut Res Int,2014,21(6):4236-4244.DOI:10.1007/s11356-013-2374-6.
[5] 梁锐明,殷鹏,王黎君,等.中国7个城市大气PM2.5对人群心血管疾病死亡的急性效应研究 [J].中华流行病学杂志,2017,38(3):283-289.DOI:10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2017.03.003.Liang RM,Yin P,Wang LJ,et al.Acute effect of fine particulate matters on daily cardiovascular disease mortality in seven cities of China [J].Chin J Epidemiol,2017,38(3):283-289.DOI:10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2017.03.003.
[6] Maté T,Guaita R,PichiuleI M,et al.Short-term effect of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) on daily mortality due to diseases of the circulatory system in Madrid (Spain) [J].Sci Total Environ,2010,408(23):5750-5757.DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2010.07.083.
[7] 刘晓剑,吴永胜,付英斌,等.深圳市空气PM2.5与心脑血管疾病死亡的广义相加模型分析 [J].中华疾病控制杂志,2016,20(2):207-209.DOI:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2016.02.026.Liu XJ,Wu YS,Fu YB,et al.Time-series analysis of air pollution and cardiovascular disease mortality in Shenzhen [J].Chin J Control Prev,2016,20(2):207-209.DOI:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2016.02.026.
[8] Ostro B,Lipsett M,Reynolds P,et al.Long-term exposure to constituents of fine particulate air pollution and mortality:results from the California teachers study [J].Environ Health Perspect,2010,118(3):363-369.DOI:10.1289/ehp.0901181.
[9] Hart JE,Eric G,Dockery DW,et al.Long-term ambient multipollutant exposures and mortality [J].Am J Respir Crit Care Med,2011,183(1):73-78.DOI:10.1164/rccm.200912-1903OC.
[10] 石同幸,董航,杨轶戬,等.广州市中心城区冬季大气PM2.5污染状况与居民每日死亡的关系 [J].环境与健康杂志,2015,32(6):477-481.DOI:10.16241/j.cnki.1001-5914.2015.06.002.Shi TX,Dong H,Yang YJ,et al.Association between PM2.5 air pollution and daily resident mortality in Guangzhou urban air in winter [J].J Environ Health,2015,32(6):477-481.DOI:10.16241/j.cnki.1001-5914.2015.06.002.
[11] Dabass A,Talbott EO,Bilonick RA,et al.Using spatio-temporal modeling for exposure assessment in an investigation of fine particulate air pollution and cardiovascular mortality [J].Environ Res,2016,151:564-572.DOI:10.1016/j.envres.2016.08.024.
[12] Holloman CH,Bortnick SM,Morara M.A Bayesian hierarchical approach for relating PM2.5 exposure to cardiovascular mortality in North Carolina [J].Environ Health Perspect,2004,112(13):1282-1288.DOI:10.1289/ehp.6980.
[13] Stafoggia M,Cesaroni G,Peters A,et al.Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and incidence of cerebrovascular events:results from 11 European cohorts within the ESCAPE project [J].Environ Health Perspect,2014,122(9):919-925.DOI:10.1289/ehp.1307301.
[14] Mei MX,Yu PJ,Guo XL,et al.Relationship between ambient fine particles and ventricular repolarization changes and heart rate variability of elderly people with heart disease in Beijing,China [J].Biomed Environ Sci,2013,26(8):629-637.DOI:10.3967/0895-3988.2013.08.001.
[15] Dong H,Yu Y,Yao S,et al.Acute effects of air pollution on ischaemic stroke onset and deaths:a time-series study in Changzhou,China [J].BMJ Open,2018,8(7):e020425.DOI:10.1136/bmjopen-2017-020425.
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