基于GIS的山东省≥0℃热量资源时空变化特征分析
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摘要
利用1961—2015年山东省17个气象站点和山东省周边12个气象站点的日平均气温资料和该区域的DEM(数字高程模型)数据,采用混合插值方法和线性倾向估计方法,对山东省≥0℃初、终日、持续日数和积温的时空变化特征进行分析。结果表明,山东省≥0℃初日的空间分布呈现南部早、北部晚、山区早和平原地区晚的特征;≥0℃终日的空间分布呈现南部、沿海地区晚和中部、北部地区早的特征;≥0℃持续时间的空间分布为南部、沿海地区长,中部山区、内陆及北部地区短;≥0℃积温空间分布特征为由西南向东北逐渐降低。近55年来山东省17个气象站≥0℃初日均呈现提前趋势,平均气候倾向率为2.74 d/10 a,且除烟台外,其他站点的提前趋势均达到显著水平;≥0℃终日的变化未呈现明显的规律,且所有站点的变化趋势均未达到显著水平;≥0℃持续时间和积温均呈现增加趋势,其气候倾向率分别为4.33 d/10 a和65.86(℃·d)/10 a,且除菏泽、兖州、日照、青岛、烟台和威海的≥0℃持续时间的变化未达到显著水平外,其余站点≥0℃持续时间和积温的变化趋势均达到显著水平。
The daily average temperature data from 17 meteorological stations in Shandong Province and 12 meteorological stations around Shandong Province from 1961 to 2015, and the digital elevation model(DEM) data were used to analyze the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of heat resources of above 0 ℃ in Shandong Province. A combination of the multi-linear regression analysis and the inverse distance weighted method was used to analyze the spatial distributions of heat resources of above 0 ℃. The method of linear regression was used to identify the presence of trends of heat resources of above 0 ℃. The results showed that: The spatial distribution of the beginning date of above 0 ℃ was come early in the south and the coastal areas, but late in the north and the inland areas of Shandong Province. The spatial distribution of the ending date of above 0 ℃ was come late in the south and the coastal areas, but early in the middle and the north of Shandong Province. The duration of above 0 ℃ was longer in the south and the costal than in the north and the mountainous area of the central of Shandong Province. The spatial distribution of the accumulated temperature of above 0 ℃ was high in the south-west areas and low in the north-east areas in Shandong Province. During the past 55 years, the time series of the beginning date of above 0 ℃ showed negative trends for 17 meteorological stations with the average rate of-2.74 d/10 a, and except for Yantai station, the advance trend of other stations reached a significant level.The time series of the ending date of above 0 ℃ did not show obvious regularity, and the trend of change of all stations did not reach a significant level.Both the duration and accumulated temperature above 0 ℃ showed an increasing trend, and their climatic tendency rates were 4.33 d/10 a and 65.86(℃·d)/10 a, respectively,and except for the changes of the duration above 0 ℃ in Heze, Yanzhou, Rizhao, Qingdao, Yantai and Weihai did not reach a significant level,the change trend of the duration and the accumulated temperature above 0 ℃ in other sites reached a significant level.
The daily average temperature data from 17 meteorological stations in Shandong Province and 12 meteorological stations around Shandong Province from 1961 to 2015, and the digital elevation model(DEM) data were used to analyze the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of heat resources of above 0 ℃ in Shandong Province. A combination of the multi-linear regression analysis and the inverse distance weighted method was used to analyze the spatial distributions of heat resources of above 0 ℃. The method of linear regression was used to identify the presence of trends of heat resources of above 0 ℃. The results showed that: The spatial distribution of the beginning date of above 0 ℃ was come early in the south and the coastal areas, but late in the north and the inland areas of Shandong Province. The spatial distribution of the ending date of above 0 ℃ was come late in the south and the coastal areas, but early in the middle and the north of Shandong Province. The duration of above 0 ℃ was longer in the south and the costal than in the north and the mountainous area of the central of Shandong Province. The spatial distribution of the accumulated temperature of above 0 ℃ was high in the south-west areas and low in the north-east areas in Shandong Province. During the past 55 years, the time series of the beginning date of above 0 ℃ showed negative trends for 17 meteorological stations with the average rate of-2.74 d/10 a, and except for Yantai station, the advance trend of other stations reached a significant level.The time series of the ending date of above 0 ℃ did not show obvious regularity, and the trend of change of all stations did not reach a significant level.Both the duration and accumulated temperature above 0 ℃ showed an increasing trend, and their climatic tendency rates were 4.33 d/10 a and 65.86(℃·d)/10 a, respectively,and except for the changes of the duration above 0 ℃ in Heze, Yanzhou, Rizhao, Qingdao, Yantai and Weihai did not reach a significant level,the change trend of the duration and the accumulated temperature above 0 ℃ in other sites reached a significant level.
引文
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[3] 任国玉,郭军,徐铭志,等.近50年中国地面气候变化基本特征[J].气象学报,2005,63(6):942-956.
[4] 钱凤魁,王文涛,刘燕华.农业领域应对气候变化的适应措施与对策[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(5):19-24.
[5] 段若溪,姜会飞.农业气象学[M].北京:气象出版社,2013:74-76.
[6] 李元华,刘学锋,刘莉,等.河北省近50年0℃界限温度积温变化特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2006,20(4):12-15.
[7] 刘勤,严昌荣,何文清,等.黄河流域近40a积温动态变化研究[J].自然资源学报,2009,24(1):147-153.
[8] 普宗朝,张山清,李景林,等.近50a新疆≥0℃持续日数和积温时空变化[J].干旱区研究,2013,30(5):781-788.
[9] 李春光,郭红艳,马登超,等.济宁地区1970～2012年热量资源变化特征及其对作物生长的影响[J].山东农业科学,2015,47(1):100-104.
[10] 高燕军,韩荣青,赵明华,等.近50年来山东省农业热量资源时空变化分析[J].大麦与谷类科学,2017,34(2):10-19.
[11] 王丽,王培法,刘爱利,等.基于DEM的江苏气温空间插值研究[J].南京信息工程大学学报(自然科学版),2015,7(1):79-85.
[12] 杨锦忠,崔福柱,郝建平,等.基于GIS的山西省玉米热量资源精细区划[J].山西农业科学,2014,42(1):33-38.
[13] 杨建莹,刘勤,严昌荣,等.近48a华北区太阳辐射量时空格局的变化特征[J].生态学报,2011,31(10):2748-2756.
[14] 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:37-41.
[15] 廖顺宝,李泽辉.积温数据栅格化方法的实验[J].地理研究,2004,23(5):633-640.
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