塔里木河干流区极端气温变化特征研究
|
摘要
为研究塔里木河干流极端气温的变化特征,利用新疆塔里木河干流6个气象站1962—2015年的极端气温资料,采用趋势分析、Mann-Kendall突变性检验和小波分析法研究塔里木河干流极端气温的变化趋势和周期性特征。研究结果表明:①塔里木河干流极端气温均呈现显著上升趋势,但不同河段气象站点测得的极端温度增温速度不同。极端高温的增温速度具体表现为:铁干里克>阿克苏>若羌>轮台>阿拉尔>库尔勒。极端低温的增温速度表现为:阿克苏>轮台>库尔勒>若羌>铁干里克>阿拉尔。②塔里木河干流不同河段的极端气温发生突变年份不同。极端高温发生突变年份具体为:上游段,1982年和2001年;中游段,1985年和1989年;下游段,1989年和1994年。极端低温发生突变年份具体为:上游段,1972年;中游段,1988年;下游段,1973年和1982年。③极端高温呈现2个增-减的周期性震荡,变化周期为20 a左右;极端低温也呈现2个增-减的周期性震荡,变化周期为18 a左右。整体来看,塔里木河干流不同河段在20世纪80年代中后期极端气温都出现了显著的周期性震荡。
In order to research the change characteristics of extreme temperature of the mainstream of Tarim River, based on extreme temperature data from six meteorological stations in the mainstream of Tarim River in Xinjiang, the linear trend analysis, Mann-Kendall mutation test and wavelet analysis were used to study the change trend and periodicity characteristics of extreme temperature in the different river reaches of Tarim River basin. The results are as follows: ① The extreme highest temperature and extreme lowest temperature have an significant increasing trend. The increasing rate of the extreme highest temperature in the different region is different,such as the follows: Aksu>Lutai>Korla>Tieganlik>Ruoqiang>Alar. The increasing rate of the extreme lowest temperature in the different region is also different,such as the follows: Tieganlik>Aksu>Ruoqiang>Luntai>Alar>Korla.② In the different reaches of the mainstream of Tarim River, the mutation of the extreme highest temperature occurred in the different year, such as the follows: in 1982 and 2001 in the upper reaches, in 1985 and 1989 in the middle reaches, and in 1989 and 1994 in the lower reaches. The Mutation of the extreme lowest temperature occurred in 1972 in the upper reaches, in 1988 in the middle reaches, and in 1973 and 1982 in the lower reaches. ③ The extreme highest temperature shows two increasing-decreasing periodic fluctuations, and the time change period was about 20 years. The extreme lowest temperature also shows two increasing-decreasing periodic fluctuations, and the time change period was about 18 years. Thus, the significant periodic fluctuations in the different reaches of the mainstream of Tarim River appears in the mid to late 1980 s.
In order to research the change characteristics of extreme temperature of the mainstream of Tarim River, based on extreme temperature data from six meteorological stations in the mainstream of Tarim River in Xinjiang, the linear trend analysis, Mann-Kendall mutation test and wavelet analysis were used to study the change trend and periodicity characteristics of extreme temperature in the different river reaches of Tarim River basin. The results are as follows: ① The extreme highest temperature and extreme lowest temperature have an significant increasing trend. The increasing rate of the extreme highest temperature in the different region is different,such as the follows: Aksu>Lutai>Korla>Tieganlik>Ruoqiang>Alar. The increasing rate of the extreme lowest temperature in the different region is also different,such as the follows: Tieganlik>Aksu>Ruoqiang>Luntai>Alar>Korla.② In the different reaches of the mainstream of Tarim River, the mutation of the extreme highest temperature occurred in the different year, such as the follows: in 1982 and 2001 in the upper reaches, in 1985 and 1989 in the middle reaches, and in 1989 and 1994 in the lower reaches. The Mutation of the extreme lowest temperature occurred in 1972 in the upper reaches, in 1988 in the middle reaches, and in 1973 and 1982 in the lower reaches. ③ The extreme highest temperature shows two increasing-decreasing periodic fluctuations, and the time change period was about 20 years. The extreme lowest temperature also shows two increasing-decreasing periodic fluctuations, and the time change period was about 18 years. Thus, the significant periodic fluctuations in the different reaches of the mainstream of Tarim River appears in the mid to late 1980 s.
引文
[1] IPCC.Climate change 2013:the physical science basis:contribution of working groupⅠto the fifth assesment report of the intergovern mental panel on climate change[M].Cambridge,UK:Cambrideg University Press,2013:1525.
[2] 赵晓慎,周海,王文川.气候变化对区域水循环系统影响的研究进展[J].华北水利水电学院学报,2012,33(2):46-49.
[3] 秦大河.气候变化科学与人类可持续发展[J].地理科学进展,2014,33(7):874-883.
[4] 李国琛.全球气候变暖成因分析[J].中国减灾,2005(5):38-42.
[5] 涂文霞.塔里木河不同河段胡杨径向生长与地表径流的关系研究[D].乌鲁木齐:新疆师范大学,2014:30-35.
[6] 邓铭江.塔里木河流域气候与径流变化及生态修复[J].冰川冻土,2006,28(5):694-702.
[7] 段建军,王彦国,王晓风,等.1957—2006年塔里木河流域气候变化和人类活动对水资源和生态环境的影响[J].冰川冻土,2009,31(5):781-791.
[8] 张琴琴,刘斌.塔里木河干流生态效应评价方法研究[J].地理空间信息,2018,16(3):77-79.
[9] 陶辉,白云岗,毛炜峄.塔里木河流域气候变化及未来趋势预估[J].冰川冻土,2011,33(4):738-743.
[10] 杨青,何清.塔里木河流域下游的气候变化与生态环境[J].新疆气象,2000,23(3):11-14.
[11] 陈亚宁,徐长春,郝兴明,等.新疆塔里木河流域近50年气候变化及其对径流的影响[J].冰川冻土,2008,30(6):921-929.
[12] 杨金宝.本溪地区降水量变化分析[J].黑龙江水利科技,2014,42(3):14-17.
[13] 徐建华.现代地理学中的数学方法[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1996.
[14] 高翠萍,徐晓民,郭中小,等.基于小波分析的典型干旱草原区降水特征研究[J].安徽农业科学,2014,42(3):849-851.
[15] 张翠,苏荣国,宋志杰,等.小波分析在湖泊常见浮游藻荧光识别测定中的应用[J].环境科学,2012,33(10):3314-3322.
[2] 赵晓慎,周海,王文川.气候变化对区域水循环系统影响的研究进展[J].华北水利水电学院学报,2012,33(2):46-49.
[3] 秦大河.气候变化科学与人类可持续发展[J].地理科学进展,2014,33(7):874-883.
[4] 李国琛.全球气候变暖成因分析[J].中国减灾,2005(5):38-42.
[5] 涂文霞.塔里木河不同河段胡杨径向生长与地表径流的关系研究[D].乌鲁木齐:新疆师范大学,2014:30-35.
[6] 邓铭江.塔里木河流域气候与径流变化及生态修复[J].冰川冻土,2006,28(5):694-702.
[7] 段建军,王彦国,王晓风,等.1957—2006年塔里木河流域气候变化和人类活动对水资源和生态环境的影响[J].冰川冻土,2009,31(5):781-791.
[8] 张琴琴,刘斌.塔里木河干流生态效应评价方法研究[J].地理空间信息,2018,16(3):77-79.
[9] 陶辉,白云岗,毛炜峄.塔里木河流域气候变化及未来趋势预估[J].冰川冻土,2011,33(4):738-743.
[10] 杨青,何清.塔里木河流域下游的气候变化与生态环境[J].新疆气象,2000,23(3):11-14.
[11] 陈亚宁,徐长春,郝兴明,等.新疆塔里木河流域近50年气候变化及其对径流的影响[J].冰川冻土,2008,30(6):921-929.
[12] 杨金宝.本溪地区降水量变化分析[J].黑龙江水利科技,2014,42(3):14-17.
[13] 徐建华.现代地理学中的数学方法[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1996.
[14] 高翠萍,徐晓民,郭中小,等.基于小波分析的典型干旱草原区降水特征研究[J].安徽农业科学,2014,42(3):849-851.
[15] 张翠,苏荣国,宋志杰,等.小波分析在湖泊常见浮游藻荧光识别测定中的应用[J].环境科学,2012,33(10):3314-3322.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |