“一带一路”倡议下中国与中亚合作的战略支点选择
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摘要
中亚在"一带一路"倡议中具有重要地缘价值,而中国与中亚的合作需以战略支点为依托。相关研究多关注国家尺度和定性方法,较少深入到对区域尺度战略支点及其空间结构的分析中,可能导致支点范围较大、针对性较弱。故本文主要从区域尺度入手,基于对各类空间要素的综合评价,对战略支点的空间结构进行分析。研究表明,乌鲁木齐等中国城市、阿拉木图等中亚城市以及霍尔果斯等边境口岸在各类节点中具有综合优势。基于可达性和城市网络分析结果,结合中国与中亚合作现状,可将"乌鲁木齐-阿拉木图经济走廊"作为战略支点,采取"两核四轴四带"的空间结构。创新点在于从区域尺度认识战略支点并分析其空间结构,有利于通过尺度上推进一步撬动高尺度合作。
Central Asia plays a crucial role in the Belt and Road Initiative, serving as a bridge between China and Europe. In geopolitical terms, it is a high valued region that provides new strategic opportunities to China when the U.S. withdraws from Afghanistan and Russia is relatively declining. In order to promote China-Central Asia cooperation, a strategic pivot is urgently needed. There is a growing number of studies on the selection and spatial distribution of strategic pivots under the Belt and Road Initiative, nevertheless, most studies fall short of a scrutiny of pivots at lower scales. Instead, the pivots are mostly geopolitical units at the national scale, e.g. Kazakhstan or Pakistan. Also, a qualitative approach is widely used by scholars while the quantitative methods are largely overlooked. The results and approaches of current researches could not be perfectly applied to the analysis of Central Asia, as the socalled"pivots"are relatively broad and unclear for the cooperation in this region, which needs a pivot at regional or even urban scale. Therefore, this paper aims to discuss the selection and spatial structure evolution of the regional scale strategic pivot of China-Central Asia cooperation by evaluating a variety of spatial objects, e.g. cities, frontier ports and transport infrastructure. The results can be summarized as follows.(1) Based on the evaluation and clustering analysis, 15 Chinese cities, 10 Central Asian cities and 4 frontier ports can be extracted from major cities and ports in China and Central Asia. The most significant nodes include Urumqi, Ili, Almaty, Bishkek, Tashkent, Horgos, etc.(2) Based on the accessibility to the China-Central Asia boundary, the nodes are further refined, in which Urumqi, Ili, Almaty and Bishkek are major cities within the 12 h isochronous rings. Also, the results of overall accessibility and city networks suggest a curved valley stretching from Urumqi to East Turkmenistan, covering major cities in Southeastern Central Asia.(3) Based on the results, the"Urumqi-Almaty Economic Corridor"can be constructed as the regional pivot of ChinaCentral Asia cooperation. The spatial structure of the pivot can be designed as"two cores, four axes, and two belts". Accordingly, the construction of the corridor should focus mostly on the development of frontier ports, transportation infrastructures and cities in the core area.
Central Asia plays a crucial role in the Belt and Road Initiative, serving as a bridge between China and Europe. In geopolitical terms, it is a high valued region that provides new strategic opportunities to China when the U.S. withdraws from Afghanistan and Russia is relatively declining. In order to promote China-Central Asia cooperation, a strategic pivot is urgently needed. There is a growing number of studies on the selection and spatial distribution of strategic pivots under the Belt and Road Initiative, nevertheless, most studies fall short of a scrutiny of pivots at lower scales. Instead, the pivots are mostly geopolitical units at the national scale, e.g. Kazakhstan or Pakistan. Also, a qualitative approach is widely used by scholars while the quantitative methods are largely overlooked. The results and approaches of current researches could not be perfectly applied to the analysis of Central Asia, as the socalled"pivots"are relatively broad and unclear for the cooperation in this region, which needs a pivot at regional or even urban scale. Therefore, this paper aims to discuss the selection and spatial structure evolution of the regional scale strategic pivot of China-Central Asia cooperation by evaluating a variety of spatial objects, e.g. cities, frontier ports and transport infrastructure. The results can be summarized as follows.(1) Based on the evaluation and clustering analysis, 15 Chinese cities, 10 Central Asian cities and 4 frontier ports can be extracted from major cities and ports in China and Central Asia. The most significant nodes include Urumqi, Ili, Almaty, Bishkek, Tashkent, Horgos, etc.(2) Based on the accessibility to the China-Central Asia boundary, the nodes are further refined, in which Urumqi, Ili, Almaty and Bishkek are major cities within the 12 h isochronous rings. Also, the results of overall accessibility and city networks suggest a curved valley stretching from Urumqi to East Turkmenistan, covering major cities in Southeastern Central Asia.(3) Based on the results, the"Urumqi-Almaty Economic Corridor"can be constructed as the regional pivot of ChinaCentral Asia cooperation. The spatial structure of the pivot can be designed as"two cores, four axes, and two belts". Accordingly, the construction of the corridor should focus mostly on the development of frontier ports, transportation infrastructures and cities in the core area.
引文
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[12]王勇辉."21世纪海上丝绸之路"东南亚战略支点国家的构建.世界经济与政治论坛,2016,(3):61-73.[Wang Yonghui."Maritime Silk Road in the 21th Century"and construction of the strategic pivot countries in the Southeast Asia.Forum of World Economics and Politics,2016,(3):61-73.]
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[14]杜哲元."一带一路"建设与中国周边三环外交体系的构建.东南亚研究,2018,(1):48-64.[Du Zheyuan."The Belt and Road"and the construction of China's peripheral tri-ring diplomacy system.Southeast Asian Studies,2018,(1):48-64.]
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[17]张大勇.加强"21世纪海上丝绸之路"战略支点建设研究.中国工程科学,2016,18(2):105-110.[Zhang Dayong.Strengthening the rise of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road strategic pivot.Engineering Sciences,2016,18(2):105-110.]
[18]王成金,陈云浩.全球航运战略支点识别.中国科学院院刊,2017,32(4):348-354.[Wang Chengjin,Chen Yunhao.Identification of global strategic shipping pivot.Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2017,32(4):348-354.]
[19]杜正艾.精选"一带一路"建设战略支点国家的意义与建议.行政管理改革,2016,(6):29-34.[Du Zhengai.Significance and suggestion of selecting pivot countries for the constructive strategy"One Belt One Road".Administration Reform,2016,(6):29-34.]
[20]李大海,孙杨,韩立民.21世纪海上丝绸之路:物流分析、支点选择与空间布局.太平洋学报,2017,25(1):85-97.[Li Dahai,Sun Yang,Han Limin.21st Century Maritime Silk Road:Material flow analysis,pivot selection and spatial distribution.Pacific Journal,2017,25(1):85-97.]
[21]Clarke M.China's integration of Xinjiang with Central Asia:Securing a"silk road"to great power status.China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly,2008,6(2):89-111.
[22]潜旭明."一带一路"战略的支点:中国与中东能源合作.阿拉伯世界研究,2014,(3):44-57.[Qian Xuming.The base of"the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Marine Silk Road"strategy:China and the Middle East energy cooperation.Arab World Studies,2014,(3):44-57.]
[23]陆大道.关于"点-轴"空间结构系统的形成机理分析.地理科学,2002,22(1):1-6.[Lu Dadao.Formation and dynamics of the“pole-axis”spatial system.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2002,22(1):1-6.]
[24]马颖忆,陆玉麒,柯文前,等.泛亚高铁建设对中国西南边疆地区与中南半岛空间联系的影响.地理研究,2015,34(5):825-837.[Ma Yingyi,Lu Yuqi,Ke Wenqian,et al.The influence of Pan-Asia High-speed Railway construction on spatial relation between Southwest China's frontier area and Indo-China Peninsula.Geographical Research,2015,34(5):825-837.]
[25]Regmi M B,Hanaoka S.Assessment of intermodal transport corridors:Cases from North-East and Central Asia.Research in Transportation Business and Management,2012,(5):27-37.
[26]Goodchild A,Albrecht S,Leung L.A description of commercial cross border trips in the Cascade Gateway and trade corridor.Transportation Letters,2009,1(3):213-225.
[27]赵亚博,刘晓凤,葛岳静."一带一路"沿线国家油气资源分布格局及其与中国合作中的相互依赖关系.地理研究,2017,36(12):2305-2320.[Zhao Yabo,Liu Xiaofeng,Ge Yuejing.Analysis of the oil and gas resource distribution pattern along the Belt and Road and the interdependence relationship with China.Geographical Research,2017,36(12):2305-2320.]
[28]李同昇,龙冬平.中亚国家地缘位置与中国地缘战略的若干思考.地理科学进展,2014,33(3):303-314.[Li Tongsheng,Long Dongping.Geopolitical position of Central Asian countries and geopolitical strategy of China.Progress in Geography,2014,33(3):303-314.]
[29]高晓路,许泽宁,牛方曲.基于"点-轴系统"理论的城市群边界识别.地理科学进展,2015,34(3):280-289.[Gao Xiaolu,Xu Zening,Niu Fangqu.Delineating the scope of urban agglomerations based upon the Pole-Axis theory.Progress in Geography,2015,34(3):280-289.]
[30]胡志丁,曹原,刘玉立,等.我国政治地理学研究的新发展:地缘环境探索.人文地理,2013,28(5):123-128.[Hu Zhiding,Cao Yuan,Liu Yuli,et al.A new development of political geography research in China:Geo-setting.Human Geography,2013,28(5):123-128.]
[31]胡志丁,葛岳静,鲍捷,等.南亚地缘环境的空间格局与分异规律研究.地理科学,2013,33(6):685-692.[Hu Zhiding,Ge Yuejing,Bao Jie,et al.The spatial pattern and differentiation laws of geo-setting in South Asia.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2013,33(6):685-692.]
[32]周秋文,杨胜天,廖华,等.地缘环境单元划分方法及实例研究.世界地理研究,2016,25(4):58-66.[Zhou Qiuwen,Yang Shengtian,Liao Hua,et al.Building and application of a geopolitical environment unit regionalization method.World Regional Studies,2016,25(4):58-66.]
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[2]杜德斌,马亚华."一带一路":全球治理模式的新探索.地理研究,2017,36(7):1203-1209.[Du Debin,Ma Yahua.One Belt and One Road:A new way of global governance.Geographical Research,2017,36(7):1203-1209.]
[3]宋长青,葛岳静,刘云刚,等.从地缘关系视角解析"一带一路"的行动路径.地理研究,2018,37(1):3-19.[Song Changqing,Ge Yuejing,Liu Yungang,et al.Undertaking research on Belt and Road Initiative from the geo-relation perspective.Geographical Research,2018,37(1):3-19.]
[4]Duarte P.Central Asia:The planet's pivot area.Revista Espa?ola de Relaciones Internacionales,2014,(6):159-206.
[5]Megoran N,Sharapova S.MacKinder's"heartland":A help or hindrance in understanding Central Asia's international relations?Central Asia and the Caucasus,2005,34(4):8-20.
[6]公丕萍,宋周莺,刘卫东.中国与俄罗斯及中亚地区的贸易格局分析.地理研究,2015,34(5):812-824.[Gong Piping,Song Zhouying,Liu Weidong.A study on trade pattern of China with Russia and Central Asia.Geographical Research,2015,34(5):812-824.]
[7]戴维来.支点国家崛起与中国多支点外交.理论视野,2016,(8):63-66.[Dai Weilai.Pivotal countries and China's multi-pivots diplomacy.Theoretical Horizon,2016,(8):63-66.]
[8]Brzezinski Z K.The Grand Chessboard:American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives.New York:Basic Books,1997.
[9]杜德斌,马亚华."一带一路":中华民族复兴的地缘大战略.地理研究,2015,34(6):1005-1014.[Du Debin,Ma Yahua.One Belt and One Road:The grand geo-strategy of China's rise.Geographical Research,2015,34(6):1005-1014.]
[10]周方冶.21世纪海上丝绸之路战略支点建设的几点看法.新视野,2015,(2):105-110.[Zhou Fangye.A study on the construction of strategic fulcrum of 21st Century Maritime Silk Road.Expanding Horizons,2015,(2):105-110.]
[11]赵雅婷."一带一路"背景下中国战略支点的选择:以中国同哈萨克斯坦的战略合作为例.新疆社会科学,2015,(6):75-80.[Zhao Yating.Choice of strategic pivot of China in“One Belt One Road”:Take strategic cooperation between China and Kazakhstan as an example.Social Sciences in Xinjiang,2015,(6):75-80.]
[12]王勇辉."21世纪海上丝绸之路"东南亚战略支点国家的构建.世界经济与政治论坛,2016,(3):61-73.[Wang Yonghui."Maritime Silk Road in the 21th Century"and construction of the strategic pivot countries in the Southeast Asia.Forum of World Economics and Politics,2016,(3):61-73.]
[13]韦红,尹楠楠."21世纪海上丝绸之路"东南亚战略支点国家的选择.社会主义研究,2017,(6):124-132.[Wei Hong,Yin Nannan.The choice of strategic pivotal states in Southeast Asia for"21st Century Maritime Silk Road".Socialism Studies,2017,(6):124-132.]
[14]杜哲元."一带一路"建设与中国周边三环外交体系的构建.东南亚研究,2018,(1):48-64.[Du Zheyuan."The Belt and Road"and the construction of China's peripheral tri-ring diplomacy system.Southeast Asian Studies,2018,(1):48-64.]
[15]肖阳."一带一路"背景下构建中国周边战略支点的路径探析.边界与海洋研究,2016,1(4):68-77.[Xiao Yang.Building China's periphery strategic pivots:Concepts,characteristics and path.Journal of Boundary and Ocean Studies,2016,1(4):68-77.]
[16]张洁.海上通道安全与中国战略支点的构建:兼谈21世纪海上丝绸之路建设的安全考量.国际安全研究,2015,(2):100-118.[Zhang Jie.Maritime channel in Southeast Asia and China's strategic pivots.Journal of International Security Studies,2015,(2):100-118.]
[17]张大勇.加强"21世纪海上丝绸之路"战略支点建设研究.中国工程科学,2016,18(2):105-110.[Zhang Dayong.Strengthening the rise of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road strategic pivot.Engineering Sciences,2016,18(2):105-110.]
[18]王成金,陈云浩.全球航运战略支点识别.中国科学院院刊,2017,32(4):348-354.[Wang Chengjin,Chen Yunhao.Identification of global strategic shipping pivot.Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2017,32(4):348-354.]
[19]杜正艾.精选"一带一路"建设战略支点国家的意义与建议.行政管理改革,2016,(6):29-34.[Du Zhengai.Significance and suggestion of selecting pivot countries for the constructive strategy"One Belt One Road".Administration Reform,2016,(6):29-34.]
[20]李大海,孙杨,韩立民.21世纪海上丝绸之路:物流分析、支点选择与空间布局.太平洋学报,2017,25(1):85-97.[Li Dahai,Sun Yang,Han Limin.21st Century Maritime Silk Road:Material flow analysis,pivot selection and spatial distribution.Pacific Journal,2017,25(1):85-97.]
[21]Clarke M.China's integration of Xinjiang with Central Asia:Securing a"silk road"to great power status.China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly,2008,6(2):89-111.
[22]潜旭明."一带一路"战略的支点:中国与中东能源合作.阿拉伯世界研究,2014,(3):44-57.[Qian Xuming.The base of"the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Marine Silk Road"strategy:China and the Middle East energy cooperation.Arab World Studies,2014,(3):44-57.]
[23]陆大道.关于"点-轴"空间结构系统的形成机理分析.地理科学,2002,22(1):1-6.[Lu Dadao.Formation and dynamics of the“pole-axis”spatial system.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2002,22(1):1-6.]
[24]马颖忆,陆玉麒,柯文前,等.泛亚高铁建设对中国西南边疆地区与中南半岛空间联系的影响.地理研究,2015,34(5):825-837.[Ma Yingyi,Lu Yuqi,Ke Wenqian,et al.The influence of Pan-Asia High-speed Railway construction on spatial relation between Southwest China's frontier area and Indo-China Peninsula.Geographical Research,2015,34(5):825-837.]
[25]Regmi M B,Hanaoka S.Assessment of intermodal transport corridors:Cases from North-East and Central Asia.Research in Transportation Business and Management,2012,(5):27-37.
[26]Goodchild A,Albrecht S,Leung L.A description of commercial cross border trips in the Cascade Gateway and trade corridor.Transportation Letters,2009,1(3):213-225.
[27]赵亚博,刘晓凤,葛岳静."一带一路"沿线国家油气资源分布格局及其与中国合作中的相互依赖关系.地理研究,2017,36(12):2305-2320.[Zhao Yabo,Liu Xiaofeng,Ge Yuejing.Analysis of the oil and gas resource distribution pattern along the Belt and Road and the interdependence relationship with China.Geographical Research,2017,36(12):2305-2320.]
[28]李同昇,龙冬平.中亚国家地缘位置与中国地缘战略的若干思考.地理科学进展,2014,33(3):303-314.[Li Tongsheng,Long Dongping.Geopolitical position of Central Asian countries and geopolitical strategy of China.Progress in Geography,2014,33(3):303-314.]
[29]高晓路,许泽宁,牛方曲.基于"点-轴系统"理论的城市群边界识别.地理科学进展,2015,34(3):280-289.[Gao Xiaolu,Xu Zening,Niu Fangqu.Delineating the scope of urban agglomerations based upon the Pole-Axis theory.Progress in Geography,2015,34(3):280-289.]
[30]胡志丁,曹原,刘玉立,等.我国政治地理学研究的新发展:地缘环境探索.人文地理,2013,28(5):123-128.[Hu Zhiding,Cao Yuan,Liu Yuli,et al.A new development of political geography research in China:Geo-setting.Human Geography,2013,28(5):123-128.]
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