基于空间网格尺度的中国PM_(2.5)污染健康效应空间分布
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摘要
以全国城市空气质量实时发布平台的监测数据为基础,运用空间插值法模拟中国PM_(2.5)在10km×10km空间网格尺度上的暴露水平,利用BenMap工具估计2017年中国PM_(2.5)污染的健康损失,在城市尺度上对PM_(2.5)污染的健康经济损失进行空间分析.结果表明,在统计意义层面上,2017年PM_(2.5)污染共计造成我国321435例早逝、746078例住院、14877551例患病,健康经济损失约为12625亿元,占当年全国GDP的1.53%.从城市尺度来看,健康效应呈现出一定的空间聚集效应,京津冀地区城市较为严重.在空间分布上,主要以"高-高"型和"低-低"型分布为主,即健康经济损失高值城市相互聚集、健康经济损失低值城市也相互聚集,并且存在高值城市之间相互影响并逐渐向四周扩散,进而影响周围低值城市的现象.
Based on the monitoring data of the national urban air quality real-time release platform, this study used the spatial interpolation method to simulate the exposure level of China PM_(2.5) on the spatial grid scale of 10 km×10 km, and used the BenMap model to estimate the health loss of China's PM_(2.5) pollution in 2017. Then this study conducted a spatial analysis of the health economic losses of PM_(2.5) pollution on a city scale. In terms of statistical significance, the total PM_(2.5) pollution in 2017 caused 321435 premature deaths, 746078 hospital admissions, and 14877551 morbidity in China. The health economic loss was about 126.25 billion yuan, accounting for 1.53% of the national GDP. From the perspective of urban scale, the health effect showed a certain spatial agglomeration effect, and the cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region were more serious. In terms of spatial distribution, the main distributions were "high-high" and "low-low", that was, high-value cities of health economic loss gathered with each other, and low-value cities of health economic loss gathered with each other, too. And there existed a phenomenon that the high-value cities influenced each other and gradually spread around, and then affected the low-value cities around.
Based on the monitoring data of the national urban air quality real-time release platform, this study used the spatial interpolation method to simulate the exposure level of China PM_(2.5) on the spatial grid scale of 10 km×10 km, and used the BenMap model to estimate the health loss of China's PM_(2.5) pollution in 2017. Then this study conducted a spatial analysis of the health economic losses of PM_(2.5) pollution on a city scale. In terms of statistical significance, the total PM_(2.5) pollution in 2017 caused 321435 premature deaths, 746078 hospital admissions, and 14877551 morbidity in China. The health economic loss was about 126.25 billion yuan, accounting for 1.53% of the national GDP. From the perspective of urban scale, the health effect showed a certain spatial agglomeration effect, and the cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region were more serious. In terms of spatial distribution, the main distributions were "high-high" and "low-low", that was, high-value cities of health economic loss gathered with each other, and low-value cities of health economic loss gathered with each other, too. And there existed a phenomenon that the high-value cities influenced each other and gradually spread around, and then affected the low-value cities around.
引文
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[25]段杰雄,翟卫欣,程承旗,等.中国PM2.5污染空间分布的社会经济影响因素分析[J].环境科学,2018,38(5):2498-2504.Duan J X,Zhai W X,Cheng C Q,et al.Socio-economic factors influencing the spatial distribution of PM2.5 concentrations in China:an exploratory analysis[J].China Environmental Scicence,2018,38(5):2498-2504.
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[2]Schwartz J,Laden F,Zanobetti A.The concentration-response relation between PM2.5 and daily deaths[J].Environmental Health Perspectives,2002,110(10):1025-1029.
[3]Daniels M J,Dominici F,Samet J M,et al.Estimating particulate matter-mortality dose-response curves and threshold levels:An analysis of daily time-series for the 20largest US cities[J].American Journal of Epidemiology,2000,152(5):397-406.
[4]陈仁杰,陈秉衡,阚海东.我国113个城市大气颗粒物污染的健康经济学评价[J].中国环境科学,2010,30(3):410-415.Chen R J,Chen B H,Kan H D.A health-based economic assessment of particulate air pollution in 113 Chinese cities[J].China Environmental Scicence,2010,30(3):410-415.
[5]黄德生,张世秋.京津冀地区控制PM2.5污染的健康效益评估[J].中国环境科学,2013,33(1):166-174.Huag D S,Zhang S Q.Health benefit evaluation for PM2.5 pollution control in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of china[J].China Environmental Scicence,2013,33(1):166-174.
[6]Lu X,Yao T,Fung J C H,et al.Estimation of health and economic costs of air pollution over the Pearl River Delta region in China[J].Science of the Total Environment,2016,566:134-143.
[7]Wang K,Wu J,Wang R,et al.Analysis of residents'willingness to pay to reduce air pollution to improve children's health in community and hospital settings in Shanghai,China[J].Science of the Total Environment,2015,533:283-289.
[8]Voorhees A S,Wang J,Wang C,et al.Public health benefits of reducing air pollution in Shanghai:A proof-of-concept methodology with application to BenMAP[J].Science of the Total Environment,2014,485:396-405.
[9]Krzyzanowski M.WHO air quality guidelines for Europe[J].Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health-Part A-Current Issues,2008,71(1/2):47-50.
[10]GB 3095-2012环境空气质量标准[S].GB3095-2012 Ambient air quality standards[S].
[11]Chen J,Zhaoa R L,Li Z L.Voronoi-based k-order neighbour relations for spatial analysis[J].ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing,2004,59(1/2):60-72.
[12]国家统计局.中国统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2018.National Bureau of Statistics.China statistical yearbook[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2018.
[13]Cao J,Yang C,Li J,et al.Association between long-term exposure to outdoor air pollution and mortality in China:A cohort study[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials.2011,186(2/3):1594-1600.
[14]ICD-10.[EB/OL].https://icd.who.int/browse10/2016/en.
[15]国家卫生健康委员会.中国卫生健康统计年鉴[M].北京:中国协和医科大学出版社,2018.National Health Commission.China health statistics yearbook[M].Beijing:Peking Union Medical College Press,2018.
[16]谢鹏,刘晓云,刘兆荣,等.我国人群大气颗粒物污染暴露-反应关系的研究[J].中国环境科学,2009,29(10):1034-1040.Xie P,Liu X Y,Liu Z R,et al.Exposure-response functions for health effects of ambient particulate matter pollution applicable for China[J].China Environmental Scicence,2009,29(10):1034-1040.
[17]Zhang M,Song Y,Cai X,et al.Economic assessment of the health effects related to particulate matter pollution in 111Chinese cities by using economic burden of disease analysis[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2008,88(4):947-954.
[18]Kan H D,Chen B H,Chen C H,et al.Establishment of exposureresponse functions of air particulate matter and adverse health outcomes in China and worldwide[J].Biomedical and Environmental Sciences.2005,18(3):159-163.
[19]Kan H D,Chen B H.Particulate air pollution in urban areas of Shanghai,China:health-based economic assessment[J].Science of the Total Environment.2004,322(1-3):71-79.
[20]Liu X,Xie P,Liu Z,et al.Economic assessment of acute health impact due to inhalable particulate air pollution in the Pearl River Delta[M].2010:829-834.
[21]Ko F W S,Tam W,Wong T W,et al.Effects of air pollution on asthma hospitalization rates in different age groups in Hong Kong[J].Clinical and Experimental Allergy,2007,37(9):1312-1319.
[22]谢旭轩.健康的价值:环境效益评估方法与城市空气污染控制策略[D].北京:北京大学,2011.XIE Xu-xuan.Health value:environmental benefit assessment method and urban air pollution control strategy[D].Beijing:Peking University,2011.
[23]穆泉,张世秋.中国2001~2013年PM2.5重污染的历史变化与健康影响的经济损失评估[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2015,(4):694-706.Mu Q,Zhang S Q.Assessment of the trend of heavy PM2.5 pollution days and economic loss of health effects during 2001~2013[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,2015,(4):694-706.
[24]吕铃钥,李洪远.京津冀地区PM10和PM2.5污染的健康经济学评价[J].南开大学学报(自然科学版),2016,(1):69-77.LüL Y,Li H Y.Health economic evaluation of PM10 and PM2.5pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Nankaiensis,2016,(1):69-77.
[25]段杰雄,翟卫欣,程承旗,等.中国PM2.5污染空间分布的社会经济影响因素分析[J].环境科学,2018,38(5):2498-2504.Duan J X,Zhai W X,Cheng C Q,et al.Socio-economic factors influencing the spatial distribution of PM2.5 concentrations in China:an exploratory analysis[J].China Environmental Scicence,2018,38(5):2498-2504.
[26]Burmaster D E,Anderson P D.Principles of good practice for the use of Monte Carlo techniques in human health and ecological risk assessments[J].Risk Analysis,1994,14(4):477-481.
[27]Mani M,Markandya A,Sagar A,et al.An Analysis of Physical and Monetary Losses of Environmental Health and Natural Resources in India[J].Policy Research Working Paper,2012,4:1-8.
[28]Duan Xiaoli.Exposure factors handbook of Chinese population[Z].2013.
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