LUCC及气候变化对李仙江流域径流的影响
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摘要
为揭示李仙江流域LUCC和气候变化对径流变化的影响,基于SWAT模型,通过设置不同情景,定量分析了不同土地利用类型和气候要素对流域内径流的影响,并结合RCP4.5、RCP8.5两种气候情景对流域未来径流的变化进行了预估。结果显示:(1) SWAT模型在李仙江流域径流模拟中具有很好的适用性,可以用SWAT模型进行流域的径流模拟,率定期的模型参数R~2、Ens分别达到0.74、0.73,验证期的模型参数R~2、Ens分别达到0.63、0.63;(2)单一土地利用情景显示,将农业用地转化为林地或草地,均会导致流域径流量的减少,而将林地转化为草地则会引起流域径流量的增加,农业用地、林地、草地三者对径流增加贡献顺序为农业用地>草地>林地。(3) 2006～2015年间李仙江流域的LUCC引起的月均径流增加幅度小于气候变化引起的月均径流减少幅度,李仙江径流的变化由气候变化主导。(4)在RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种气候情景下,2021～2050年间李仙江流域径流均呈减少趋势,减少的速率分别为3.6和2.15亿m~3/10 a,这与1971～2015年间,流域实测径流减速为6.7亿m~3/10 a的变化趋势一致,但这两种情景下,径流的减少趋势有所降低,分别为1971～2015年减速的53.7%、32.1%。
Based on SWAT model and quantitatively analyses, the impact of different land use types and climatic factors on watershed runoff in different scenarios were studied to reveal the influence of LUCC and climate change on watershed runoff variation. Combined with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, the upcoming runoff change of the Lixian River Basin was predicted. Results were as follows:(1) SWAT model performs well in simulating Lixian River basin runoff. The model parameters R~2 and Ens were 0.74 and 0.73 respectively in parameter calibration period, and 0.63 and 0.63 respectively in model verification period.(2) The single land use scenario shows that the conversion of farmland into woodland or grassland will decrease watershed runoff, however, the conversion of forest to pasture will increase watershed runoff. The three types of land contributed to the rise of runoff in the order from the largest to the smallest, followed by cultivated land, grassland and forest land.(3) the average monthly runoff increase caused by LUCC was lower than the average monthly runoff reduction caused by climate change in the Lixian River Basin during 2006-2015.(4) Under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climatic scenarios, the runoff in the Lixian River basin shows a decreasing trend during the period of 2021 to 2050, with decreasing rates of 3.6 ×10~8 m~3/10 a and 2.15 ×10~8 m~3/10 a respectively. This is consistent with the trend of deceleration of the measured runoff of 6.7×10~8 m~3/10 a in the Lixian River basin between 1971 and 2015. However, under these two scenarios, the trend of runoff reduction has been some extent decreased, reaching 53.7% and 32.1% respectively for the 1971-2015 deceleration.
Based on SWAT model and quantitatively analyses, the impact of different land use types and climatic factors on watershed runoff in different scenarios were studied to reveal the influence of LUCC and climate change on watershed runoff variation. Combined with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, the upcoming runoff change of the Lixian River Basin was predicted. Results were as follows:(1) SWAT model performs well in simulating Lixian River basin runoff. The model parameters R~2 and Ens were 0.74 and 0.73 respectively in parameter calibration period, and 0.63 and 0.63 respectively in model verification period.(2) The single land use scenario shows that the conversion of farmland into woodland or grassland will decrease watershed runoff, however, the conversion of forest to pasture will increase watershed runoff. The three types of land contributed to the rise of runoff in the order from the largest to the smallest, followed by cultivated land, grassland and forest land.(3) the average monthly runoff increase caused by LUCC was lower than the average monthly runoff reduction caused by climate change in the Lixian River Basin during 2006-2015.(4) Under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climatic scenarios, the runoff in the Lixian River basin shows a decreasing trend during the period of 2021 to 2050, with decreasing rates of 3.6 ×10~8 m~3/10 a and 2.15 ×10~8 m~3/10 a respectively. This is consistent with the trend of deceleration of the measured runoff of 6.7×10~8 m~3/10 a in the Lixian River basin between 1971 and 2015. However, under these two scenarios, the trend of runoff reduction has been some extent decreased, reaching 53.7% and 32.1% respectively for the 1971-2015 deceleration.
引文
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