摘要
利用中国1961—2017年2419站均一化逐日气候数据,计算了气候变化检测和指数联合专家组定义的26个极端气候指数,分析2017年中国极端温度和降水特征。结果表明:2017年中国区域平均的所有极端高温指数均高于1961—1990年30年平均,所有极端低温指数均低于1961—1990年30年平均。中国区域平均的多个极端温度指数达到或者接近历史极值,其中年最小日最高气温(TXn)和年最小日最低气温(TNn)均达到历史最高值,冷夜(TN10p)、冷昼(TX10p)和持续冷日日数(CSDI)达到历史最低值。年最大日最高气温(TXx)、年最大日最低气温(TNx)、暖夜(TN90p)、霜冻(FD)、冰冻(ID)、热夜(TR)、生长期长度(GSL)排在1961年以来的第2或第3位,其余极端温度指数全部排在了1961年以来前10位。2017年中国区域平均的10个极端降水指数中,有7个指数值处于1961—2017年1个标准差范围内,指示2017年的极端降水接近正常年。
Based on the homogenized daily data in 2419 stations in China from 1961 to 2017, we calculated 26 extreme temperature and precipitation indices as defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices(ETCCDI), and analyzed the characteristics of extreme temperature and precipitation in China in 2017. For China average, all the high temperature indices in 2017 were above the 30-year average of 1961-1990 and the extreme low temperature indices were lower than their corresponding 1961-1990 average. The annual minima of daily maximum temperature(TXn) and daily minimum temperature(TNn) reached the highest recorded value, while the number of cold nights(TN10 p), cold days(TX10 p), and cold spell duration index(CSDI) reached the lowest recorded value. Some indices were ranked at the second or third place since 1961, including annual maxima of daily maximum temperature(TXx) and daily minimum temperature(TNx), warm nights(TN90 p), frost days(FD), icing days(ID), tropical nights(TR), and growing season length(GSL). Other extreme temperature indices were ranked in the top 10 since 1961. Meanwhile, 7 out of 10 extreme precipitation indices averaged over China in 2017 were within the range of one standard deviation of precipitation indices during 1961-2017, indicating a normal situation for extreme precipitation in 2017.
引文
[1]IPCC.Climate change 2013:the physical science basis[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2013
[2]IPCC.Climate change 2007:the physical science basis[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007
[3]秦大河.中国极端天气气候事件和灾害风险管理与适应国家评估报告[M].北京:科学出版社,2015.Qin D H.China national assessment report on risk management and adaptation of climate extremes and disasters[M].Beijing:Science Press,2015(in Chinese)
[4]Dai A,Trenberth K,Karl T.Global variations in droughts and wet spells:1900-1995[J].Geophysical Research Letters,1998,25:3367-3370
[5]李新周,马柱国,刘晓东.中国北方干旱化年代际特征与大气环流的关系[J].大气科学,2006,30(2):277-284.Li X Z,Ma Z G,Liu X D.Inter-decadal characteristics of aridification over northern China associated with the variation of atmospheric circulation during the past50 years[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2006,30(2):277-284(in Chinese)
[6]Wang Z W,Zhai P M,Zhang H T.Variation of drought over northern China during 1950-2000[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2003,13(4):480-487
[7]张强,邹旭恺,肖风劲,等.中华人民共和国国家标准:气象干旱等级.GB/T204812200[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2006:1-17.Zhang Q,Zou X K,Xiao F J,et al.Classification of meteorological drought.GB/T204812200[S].Beijing:Standards Press of China,2006:1-17(in Chinese)
[8]Alexander L V,Zhang X,Peterson T C,et al.Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2006,111:D05109.DOI:10.1029/2005JD006290
[9]Donat M G,Alexander L V,Yang H,et al.Updated analyses of temperature and precipitation extreme indices since the beginning of the twentieth century:the HadEX2 dataset[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,2013,118:2098-2118
[10]Donat M G,Alexander L V,Yang H,et al.Global land-based datasets for monitoring climatic extremes[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2013,94:997-1006
[11]Kim Y H,Min S K,Zhan X B,et al.Attribution of extreme temperature changes during 1951-2010[J].Climate Dynamics,2016,46:1769-1782
[12]Yin H,Sun Y.Detection of anthropogenic influence on fixed threshold indices of extreme temperature[J].Journal of Climate,2018,31:6341-6352
[13]WMO.WMO statement on the state of the global climate in 2017[EB/OL].2018[2018-04-11].https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate
[14]中国气象局.2017年中国气候公报[R/OL].2018[2018-04-11].http://www.cma.gov.cn/root7/auto 1313 9/201801/t20180117 460484.html.China Meteorological Administration.China climate bulletin2017[R/OL].2018[2018-04-11].http://www.cma.gov.cn/root7/auto 13139/201801/t20180117_460484.html(in Chinese)
[15]Blunden J,Arndt D S,Hartfield G.State of the climate in 2017[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2018,99(8):Si-S310
[16]Cao L,Zhu Y,Tang G,et al. Climatic warming in China according to a homogenized dataset from 2419 stations[J].International Journal of Climatology,2016,36:4384-4392
[17]Sun Y,Zhang X B,Zwiers F W,et al.Rapid increase in the risk of extreme summer heat in eastern China[J].Nature Climate Change,2014,4:1082-1085
[18]Yin H,Sun Y,Wan H,et al. Detection of anthropogenic influences on the intensity of extreme temperatures in China[J].International Journal of Climatology,2017,37:1229-1237
[19]Sen P K.Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's tau[J].Journal of the American Statistical Association,1968,63:1379-1389
[20]Zhai P M,Sun A,Ren F M,et al. Chances of climate extremes in China[J].Climate Change,1999,42:203-218
[21]Yin H,Donat M G,Alexander L V,et al.Multi-dataset comparison of gridded observed temperature and precipitation extremes over China[J].International Journal of Climatology,2015,35:2809-2827
[22]Zhou B T,Xu Y,Wu J,et al. Changes in temperature and precipitation extreme indices over China:analysis of a high-resolution grid dataset[J].International Journal of Climatology,2016,36:1051-1066
[23]Lu C H,Sun Y,Wan H,et al. Anthropogenic influence on the frequency of extreme temperatures in China[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2016,43:6511-6518
[24]Knutson T,Kossin J P,Mears C,et al.Detection and attribution of climate change[M].Washington DC:U.S.Global Change Research Program,2017:114-132
[25]Lu C H,Sun Y,Zhang X B.Multi-model detection and attribution of changes in warm and cold spell durations[J].Environmental Research Letters,2018,13:074013
[26]Zhai P M,Zhang X B,Wan H,et al. Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China[J].Journal of Climate,2005,18:1096-1108
[27]Chen H P,Sun J Q,Chen X L,et al. CGCM projections of heavy rainfall events in China[J].International Journal of Climatology,2012,32:441-450
(1)https://www.wcrp-climate.org/etccdi。