海河流域不同降水极值的时空变化分析
|
摘要
采用4种日降水情景,分析1961-2010年海河流域降水极值的时空变异性。研究结果表明,海河流域日降水量的平均值呈下降趋势,且随着时间的推移,其波动变弱。从20世纪60年代到2000年代,日降水量的平均值为1. 4 mm/d,降水的等高线向流域东南部移动了100 km以上。4种日降水情景的变化具有很大差异性;天津市和廊坊市是80年代后海河流域的P0干旱中心,无降水的天数和地区数随着年份的增加而增加; P10极值的大小在过去50年中没有明显变化,但是降雨中心随海河流域区域的不同而不同; P20极值的变化幅度在1961-2000年没有明显变化,但在2000年有所增加;在过去50年中,P50极值的变化幅度明显下降,降雨中心从海河流域的东北部向南部移动。城市化的影响反映在80年代和90年代的一些城市,但在2000年之后,由于海河流域的降雨量显著减少,导致其城市化影响表现并不显著。
In this paper,four daily precipitation scenarios are used to analyze the spatio-temporal variability of precipitation extremes in Haihe River Basin from 1961 to 2010. The results show that the average daily precipitation in Haihe River Basin shows a downward trend and its fluctuation becomes weaker with the passage of time. From 1960 s to 2000 s,the average daily precipitation was1. 4 mm/d,moving more than 100 kilometers to the southeast of the basin. There are great differences in the changes of four daily precipitation scenarios. Tianjin and Langfang are P0 drought centers in Haihe River Basin since 1980 s. The number of days and regions without precipitation increases with the increase of years. The magnitude of P10 extremum has not changed significantly in the past 50 years,but the rainfall center varies with the Haihe River Basin region. The variation range of P20 extreme value did not change obviously from 1961 to 2000,but increased in 2000. In the past 50 years,the variation of P50 extreme value has obviously decreased,and the rainfall center has moved from the northeast to the south of Haihe River Basin. The impact of urbanization was reflected in some cities in the 1980 s and 1990 s,but after 2000,the impact of urbanization was not significant due to the significant reduction of rainfall in the Haihe River Basin.
In this paper,four daily precipitation scenarios are used to analyze the spatio-temporal variability of precipitation extremes in Haihe River Basin from 1961 to 2010. The results show that the average daily precipitation in Haihe River Basin shows a downward trend and its fluctuation becomes weaker with the passage of time. From 1960 s to 2000 s,the average daily precipitation was1. 4 mm/d,moving more than 100 kilometers to the southeast of the basin. There are great differences in the changes of four daily precipitation scenarios. Tianjin and Langfang are P0 drought centers in Haihe River Basin since 1980 s. The number of days and regions without precipitation increases with the increase of years. The magnitude of P10 extremum has not changed significantly in the past 50 years,but the rainfall center varies with the Haihe River Basin region. The variation range of P20 extreme value did not change obviously from 1961 to 2000,but increased in 2000. In the past 50 years,the variation of P50 extreme value has obviously decreased,and the rainfall center has moved from the northeast to the south of Haihe River Basin. The impact of urbanization was reflected in some cities in the 1980 s and 1990 s,but after 2000,the impact of urbanization was not significant due to the significant reduction of rainfall in the Haihe River Basin.
引文
[1]谢天明.气候变化对塔河干流生态水文过程影响研究[D].西安:西安理工大学,2018.
[2]叶长青,陈晓宏,张家鸣,等.变化环境下北江流域水文极值演变特征、成因及影响[J].自然资源学报,2012(12):2102-2112.
[3]孙鹏,肖名忠,张强,等.水文气象极值事件研究进展[J].武汉大学学报:理学版,2018,64(1):28-36.
[4]马秀清.水资源短缺对海河流域社会经济和生态环境的影响[J].河北水利,1998(5):39-40.
[5]王雪,余辉,燕姝雯,等.太湖流域上游河流污染空间分布特征研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2012,21(3):341-348.
[6]刘存.基于水量-水质-生物的洋河水生态健康形势评价[D].邯郸:河北工程大学,2018.
[7]郑建平,陈敏建,徐志侠,等.海河流域河道最小生态流量研究[J].水利水电科技进展,2005(5):16-19.
[8]张仙娥,冯成洪,黄蓓蓓,等.海河流域分水系河系污染特征分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2016,35(11):47-51.
[9]马欢.人类活动影响下海河流域典型区水循环变化分析[D].北京:清华大学,2011.
[10]冯平,王仲珏,杨鹏.海河流域区域干旱特征的分析与研究[J].水利水电技术,2003(3):33-35.
[11]朱大运,熊康宁,董晓超.贵州1960-2016年气温时空变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(4):168-173.
[12]陈忠升.中国西北干旱区河川径流变化及归因定量辨识[D].上海:华东师范大学,2016.
[13]祁晓凡,李文鹏,李海涛.基于CMIP5模式的黑河流域潜在蒸散量预估[J].中国沙漠,2018,38(4):849-857.
[2]叶长青,陈晓宏,张家鸣,等.变化环境下北江流域水文极值演变特征、成因及影响[J].自然资源学报,2012(12):2102-2112.
[3]孙鹏,肖名忠,张强,等.水文气象极值事件研究进展[J].武汉大学学报:理学版,2018,64(1):28-36.
[4]马秀清.水资源短缺对海河流域社会经济和生态环境的影响[J].河北水利,1998(5):39-40.
[5]王雪,余辉,燕姝雯,等.太湖流域上游河流污染空间分布特征研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2012,21(3):341-348.
[6]刘存.基于水量-水质-生物的洋河水生态健康形势评价[D].邯郸:河北工程大学,2018.
[7]郑建平,陈敏建,徐志侠,等.海河流域河道最小生态流量研究[J].水利水电科技进展,2005(5):16-19.
[8]张仙娥,冯成洪,黄蓓蓓,等.海河流域分水系河系污染特征分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2016,35(11):47-51.
[9]马欢.人类活动影响下海河流域典型区水循环变化分析[D].北京:清华大学,2011.
[10]冯平,王仲珏,杨鹏.海河流域区域干旱特征的分析与研究[J].水利水电技术,2003(3):33-35.
[11]朱大运,熊康宁,董晓超.贵州1960-2016年气温时空变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(4):168-173.
[12]陈忠升.中国西北干旱区河川径流变化及归因定量辨识[D].上海:华东师范大学,2016.
[13]祁晓凡,李文鹏,李海涛.基于CMIP5模式的黑河流域潜在蒸散量预估[J].中国沙漠,2018,38(4):849-857.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |