1961—2012年蒸水流域径流演变规律研究
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摘要
利用湘江一级支流蒸水流域控制站神山头水文站近50 a的径流量实测数据和流域内及邻近的7个气象站同期日降水观测数据,应用Mann-Kendall趋势检验和突变分析、距平累积曲线、双累积曲线等方法分析了1961—2012年蒸水流域径流量和降水量变化的趋势性及阶段性,定量评价了降水和人类活动对流域径流量变化的影响程度。结果表明:蒸水流域径流量和降水量变化阶段性明显,都经历了枯水期和丰水期2个时期;年径流量和年降水量整体呈上升趋势,但径流量上升趋势较降水量更为显著,径流量的突变年份为1988年,降水量的突变年份为1991年,突变年份之后在降水和人类活动的共同影响下径流量明显增大,人类活动对径流量增大的贡献率为75.74%,降水对径流量增大的贡献率为24.26%。目前人类活动是蒸水流域径流变化的主要影响因素,人类可以通过合理的活动在一定程度上调节径流量。
The trends and stages of runoff and precipitation in Zhengshui River watershed, a first-grade tributary of Xiangjiang River, in the past five decades(1961-2012) were analyzed using methods of Mann-Kendall test, accumulated anomaly curve, and double mass curve. The influences of precipitation and human activities on runoff change were also quantified. The data came from observed runoff at Shenshandou hydrometric station and observed daily precipitation at seven adjacent meteorological stations in the Zhengshui River watershed. Research findings demonstrated that the variations of annual runoff and annual precipitation in the Zhengshui River watershed are apparently staged into low-flow period and high-flow period. In general, both annual runoff and annual precipitation were rising, of which the former increased more evidently. Runoff changed abruptly in 1988, while precipitation in 1991. After the abrupt change, runoff climbed obviously under the combined action of precipitation and human activities, of which the former contributed 24.26% of the increment, whereas the latter contributed up to 75.74%. As the major influential factor of runoff change in the Zhengshui River watershed at present, human activity, to be specific, rational human activity, could adjust runoff.
The trends and stages of runoff and precipitation in Zhengshui River watershed, a first-grade tributary of Xiangjiang River, in the past five decades(1961-2012) were analyzed using methods of Mann-Kendall test, accumulated anomaly curve, and double mass curve. The influences of precipitation and human activities on runoff change were also quantified. The data came from observed runoff at Shenshandou hydrometric station and observed daily precipitation at seven adjacent meteorological stations in the Zhengshui River watershed. Research findings demonstrated that the variations of annual runoff and annual precipitation in the Zhengshui River watershed are apparently staged into low-flow period and high-flow period. In general, both annual runoff and annual precipitation were rising, of which the former increased more evidently. Runoff changed abruptly in 1988, while precipitation in 1991. After the abrupt change, runoff climbed obviously under the combined action of precipitation and human activities, of which the former contributed 24.26% of the increment, whereas the latter contributed up to 75.74%. As the major influential factor of runoff change in the Zhengshui River watershed at present, human activity, to be specific, rational human activity, could adjust runoff.
引文
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[19] 王飞,穆兴民,焦菊英,等.不同最小控制时段约束下黄河天然径流量变化阶段性[J].水土保持学报,2009,23(3):34-37.
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[22] 张贤芳,舒强,李偲.叶尔羌河近48年来径流演变规律研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(1):93-97.
[23] 胡彩虹,王艺璇,管新建,等.基于双累积曲线法的径流变化成因分析[J].水资源研究,2012,1(4):204-210.
[24] 穆兴民,张秀勤,高鹏,等.双累积曲线方法理论及在水文气象领域应用中应注意的问题[J].水文,2010,30(4):47-51.
[25] 白桦,穆兴民,高鹏,等.嘉陵江流域降水及径流演变规律分析[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(1):102-106.
[2] MILLY P C C D,DUNNE K A,VECCHIA A V.Global Pattern of Trends in Streamflow and Water Availability in a Changing Climate[J].Nature,2005,438:347-350.
[3] GAO Guang-yao,FU Bo-jie,WANG Shuai,et al.Determining the Hydrological Responses to Climate Variability and Land Use/Cover Change in the Loess Plateau with the Budyko Framework[J].Science of the Total Environment,2016,557:331-342.
[4] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Fifth Assessment Report:Report of IPCC[R].Stockholm:IPCC,2013.
[5] 高培,刘明哲.新疆玛纳斯河径流演变过程及驱动力分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(10):47-52.
[6] 卢晓宁,邓伟,张树清,等.霍林河流域洪水径流演变规律及驱动机制研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(11):93-99.
[7] 孙悦,李栋梁.1975—2011年渭河上游径流演变规律及对气候驱动因子的响应[J].冰川冻土,2014,36(2):413-423.
[8] 朱恒峰,赵文武,康慕谊,等.水土保持地区人类活动对汛期径流影响的估算[J].水科学进展,2008,19(3):400-406.
[9] 王刚,严登华,黄站峰,等.滦河流域径流的长期演变规律及其驱动因子[J].干旱区研究,2011,28(6):998-1004.
[10] BARLAGE M J,RICHARDS P L,SOUSOUNIS P J,et al.Impacts of Climate Change and Land Use Change on Runoff from a Great Lakes Watershed[J].Journal of Great Lakes Research,2002,28(4):568-582.
[11] 刘贵花,栾兆擎,阎百兴,等.三江平原挠力河上游径流演变趋势及其驱动因素[J].地理科学,2011(8):952-957.
[12] 夏军,王渺林.长江上游流域径流变化与分布式水文模拟[J].资源科学,2008,30(7):962-967.
[13] 胡光伟,毛德华,张旺,等.60年来湘江干流径流泥沙过程变化及驱动力分析[J].湖南师范大学(自然科学学报),2014,37(2):12-16.
[14] 陈有铭,陈新华.蒸水流域治理问题的认识与思考[J].湖南水利水电,2002(5):29-31.
[15] 何业恒,潘安敏.蒸水流域的森林破坏与水土流失[J].中南林业科技大学学报,1983(1):48-57.
[16] 湖南省气象局气候资料室.湖南省地面气候资料(1951—1980年) 第一册,累年值[R].长沙:湖南省气象局,1982.
[17] 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].长沙:气象出版社,2007.
[18] 马聪,鲁春霞,李亦秋,等.安康水库下游径流演变及水库运行对径流影响分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(11):1433-1440.
[19] 王飞,穆兴民,焦菊英,等.不同最小控制时段约束下黄河天然径流量变化阶段性[J].水土保持学报,2009,23(3):34-37.
[20] ZHAO F F,XU Z X,HUANG J X,et al.Monotonic Trend and Abrupt Changes for Major Climate Variables in the Headwater Catchment of the Yellow River Basin[J].Hydrological Processes,2010,22(23):4587-4599.
[21] TAO H,GEMMER M,BAI Y,et al.Trends of Streamflow in the Tarim River Basin during the Past 50 Years:Human Impact or Climate Change[J].Journal of Hydrology,2011,400(1/2):1-9.
[22] 张贤芳,舒强,李偲.叶尔羌河近48年来径流演变规律研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(1):93-97.
[23] 胡彩虹,王艺璇,管新建,等.基于双累积曲线法的径流变化成因分析[J].水资源研究,2012,1(4):204-210.
[24] 穆兴民,张秀勤,高鹏,等.双累积曲线方法理论及在水文气象领域应用中应注意的问题[J].水文,2010,30(4):47-51.
[25] 白桦,穆兴民,高鹏,等.嘉陵江流域降水及径流演变规律分析[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(1):102-106.
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