新区城镇化与房地产耦合发展过程和机制——以常州武进新城区为例
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摘要
引入耦合协调函数,构建耦合发展测度模型,以武进新城区为例,对其城镇化与房地产耦合发展的过程、内在结构和机理进行了实证分析。研究表明,总体上武进新城区2006～2016年城镇化与房地产耦合发展度整体呈现正向改进;但城镇化与房地产耦合发展的内在结构和机理发生了显著的变迁,具体呈现为3个阶段:(1)阶段I(2006～2010年):房地产与土地城镇化互动耦合作为主导动力阶段;(2)阶段II(2011～2015年):房地产与人口城镇化互动耦合成为积极和主导动力的阶段;(3)阶段III(2016年以后):城镇化与房地产耦合发展后劲不足的阶段。该文提出,要实现两者之间更高水平的耦合协调发展,须从局部耦合主导、周期性协调的发展策略转向于土地、产业、人口与房地产系统耦合协调发展的策略。
The paper adopts the coupling degree model to measure the coordination between urbanization and real estate development to decode the coordination process and mechanism of these two fields in Wujin New District, Changzhou, from 2006 to 2016. The result shows that the coordination between urbanization and real estate development in Wujin is improved overally. However, the process of improvement is never smooth but can be divided into three stages according to the structure and mechanism of coordination between urbanization and real estate development. In the first stage(2006-2010), the coordination and interaction between real estate development and land urbanization sits the lead; while in the second stage(2011-2015), the coordination and interaction between real estate development and population urbanization run the frontier and become the lead; in the third stage(since 2016), the coordination between urbanization and real estate development is improved, but the improvement rate converges towards zero. This means the coordination between urbanization and real estate is facing the "trap of stagnation". To facilitate higher coordination, the paper suggests to change the partial coordination and development strategy extensively employed by local governments in the past two decades, and a more systemic coordination strategy among population urbanization, land development, industrial development, provision of public services, and real estate development is needed.
The paper adopts the coupling degree model to measure the coordination between urbanization and real estate development to decode the coordination process and mechanism of these two fields in Wujin New District, Changzhou, from 2006 to 2016. The result shows that the coordination between urbanization and real estate development in Wujin is improved overally. However, the process of improvement is never smooth but can be divided into three stages according to the structure and mechanism of coordination between urbanization and real estate development. In the first stage(2006-2010), the coordination and interaction between real estate development and land urbanization sits the lead; while in the second stage(2011-2015), the coordination and interaction between real estate development and population urbanization run the frontier and become the lead; in the third stage(since 2016), the coordination between urbanization and real estate development is improved, but the improvement rate converges towards zero. This means the coordination between urbanization and real estate is facing the "trap of stagnation". To facilitate higher coordination, the paper suggests to change the partial coordination and development strategy extensively employed by local governments in the past two decades, and a more systemic coordination strategy among population urbanization, land development, industrial development, provision of public services, and real estate development is needed.
引文
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