河北省畜禽养殖规模化程度与污染物排放量关系的实证研究
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摘要
为解决环境保护与农户畜禽规模化养殖间的协调发展问题,基于EKC理论对河北省畜禽养殖规模化程度与污染物排放量之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明:河北省畜禽养殖规模化程度与污染物排放量之间的关系呈"倒U型";将此模型中的因变量y(畜禽养殖污染排放量)与其他变量进行相关性检验,y与x(规模化程度)、x~2和x~3的Pearson相关性分别为0.744~(**)、0.563~(**)、0.415~(**),均呈显著正相关关系,回归方程可以通过F检验,且常数项和各自变量均通过T检验;通过对模型方程求导并计算,得出河北省畜禽养殖场最适规模为2.2万头猪当量以上,属大型规模。目前,造成河北省畜禽养殖污染物排放的主要来源为占比78.8%的中、小型规模畜禽养殖场。因此,在制定相关政策时,亟需加强对中、小规模养殖场的监管与补贴,促使中、小规模养殖场对养殖污染物进行处理。
In order to realize the coordinated development between environmental protection and the development of large-scale livestock and poultry farming in Hebei province, the empirical study was conducted to explore the relationship between the livestock and poultry farming scale and pollutant emissions based on EKC theory. The results indicated that the relationship between the scale of livestock and poultry farming and pollutants discharge in Hebei Province is inverted U-shaped,and the dependent variable y(pollutants discharge from livestock and poultry farming)in the model was teseted with other variables.The Pearson correlation between y and x(scale),x~2 and x~3 was 0.744~(**),0.563~(**)and 0.415~(**),respectively,which proved a significant positive correlation relationship.Moreover,the regression equation was successfully tested by F test,and the constant term and each variable were also tested by T test.It was concluded that the optimum scale of livestock and poultry farms in Hebei Province is more than 22,000 pigs by deriving and calculating the model equations,belonging to large size of breeding.At present,the pollutants discharged from the small and medium-sized livestock and poultry farming account for 78.8%of the total amount in Hebei Province.Therefore,the government in Hebei Province urgently needs to strengthen the supervision and subsidies for small and medium-sized farms,so as to promote the sustainable development of the small and medium-sized farms in Hebei.
In order to realize the coordinated development between environmental protection and the development of large-scale livestock and poultry farming in Hebei province, the empirical study was conducted to explore the relationship between the livestock and poultry farming scale and pollutant emissions based on EKC theory. The results indicated that the relationship between the scale of livestock and poultry farming and pollutants discharge in Hebei Province is inverted U-shaped,and the dependent variable y(pollutants discharge from livestock and poultry farming)in the model was teseted with other variables.The Pearson correlation between y and x(scale),x~2 and x~3 was 0.744~(**),0.563~(**)and 0.415~(**),respectively,which proved a significant positive correlation relationship.Moreover,the regression equation was successfully tested by F test,and the constant term and each variable were also tested by T test.It was concluded that the optimum scale of livestock and poultry farms in Hebei Province is more than 22,000 pigs by deriving and calculating the model equations,belonging to large size of breeding.At present,the pollutants discharged from the small and medium-sized livestock and poultry farming account for 78.8%of the total amount in Hebei Province.Therefore,the government in Hebei Province urgently needs to strengthen the supervision and subsidies for small and medium-sized farms,so as to promote the sustainable development of the small and medium-sized farms in Hebei.
引文
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[2] 刘珊珊.基于种养结合的河北省农地氮、磷消纳潜力研究[D].石家庄:河北经贸大学,2017.
[3] 白晓龙.农村非规模化畜禽污染防治现状调研与分析[J].黑龙江畜牧兽医,2016(22):86-88.
[4] 金书秦,韩冬梅.中国畜禽养殖污染防治政策评估[J].农业经济问题,2018(3):119-126.
[5] 潘丹.不同规模养殖户畜禽污染治理政策接受意愿分析——基于选择试验方法[J].中国农业大学学报,2017,22(3):188-197.
[6] 舒畅.基于经济与生态耦合的畜禽养殖废弃物治理行为及机制研究[D].北京:中国农业大学,2017.
[7] 白明刚.河北畜禽养殖污染评价及对策研究[D].保定:河北农业大学,2010.
[8] 赵建军.河北畜禽养殖业污染的环境经济分析[J].环境科学导刊,2015,34(2):81-85.
[9] 孔祥才.畜禽养殖污染的经济分析及防控政策研究[D].长春:吉林农业大学,2017.
[10] 孙菠.中国环境库兹涅茨曲线的实证研究[D].长春:吉林大学,2016.
[11] 刘俊威.畜禽养殖业规划环境影响评价[D].金华:浙江师范大学,2013.
[12] 宁国辉,刘树庆,周大迈.我国北方城郊型多功能生态农业技术与模式[J].林业与生态科学,2018,33(4):351-357.
[13] 张志平.河北省畜牧产业结构调整策略研究[D].天津:天津大学,2004.
[14] 赵娜,冯军会,万宝春.河北省畜禽养殖业污染防治对策建议[J].中国环境管理干部学院学报,2014,24(6):47-50.
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