结构性改革与经济发展方式转变
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摘要
本文采用生存模型考察结构性改革对经济体由效率驱动向创新驱动阶段转变的影响。研究发现:转型概率曲线呈倒U型,拐点为进入效率驱动阶段后的19-20年,14-19年为实现阶段性转变的高峰期,此后转型概率由上升转为下降,意味着当经济体在效率驱动阶段停留过长时间后会加大转型的困难;贸易部门、行政管理体制与金融部门改革对于转型具有显著正效应,产品市场规制与劳动力市场改革的效应不确定;顺序效应检验发现两条改革路线,一是贸易部门-行政管理体制-金融改革的路线,二是贸易部门-产品市场规制-劳动力市场改革的路线,采取上述两条改革路线有助于尽快实现由效率驱动向创新驱动的转变。各经济体设计结构性改革路线时应借鉴国际经验并根据自身条件进行调整。
This paper applies survival analysis to empirically analyse the role of structural reforms in the transition from an efficiency-driven economy to an innovation-driven economy, and discuss whether certain reforms are more important than others when it comes to promoting the economic growth pattern transformation.The results show that the transition probability presents an inverted U-shape, with an turning point between 19 and 20 years. From 14 to 19 years, the transition probability changes from increasing to decreasing, which means that the transition becomes more difficult when the economy remains for too long in the efficiency-driven stage. The reform of the trade, institutional and financial sectors have a significantly positive effect on the transition from an efficiency-driven economy to an innovation-driven economy, but the structural reform effect of product and labour markets is ambiguous. The paper further presents evidence underpinning the view that economies that implement trade reform before institutional reform, which is performed before financial reform, and economies that implement trade reform before product-market reform, which is performed before labour market reform, achieve the transition more rapidly than those that follow the reverse sequence. In the course of the design process of the structural reform roadmap, economies must draw conclusions from the international experience and make adjustments based on their own circumstances.
This paper applies survival analysis to empirically analyse the role of structural reforms in the transition from an efficiency-driven economy to an innovation-driven economy, and discuss whether certain reforms are more important than others when it comes to promoting the economic growth pattern transformation.The results show that the transition probability presents an inverted U-shape, with an turning point between 19 and 20 years. From 14 to 19 years, the transition probability changes from increasing to decreasing, which means that the transition becomes more difficult when the economy remains for too long in the efficiency-driven stage. The reform of the trade, institutional and financial sectors have a significantly positive effect on the transition from an efficiency-driven economy to an innovation-driven economy, but the structural reform effect of product and labour markets is ambiguous. The paper further presents evidence underpinning the view that economies that implement trade reform before institutional reform, which is performed before financial reform, and economies that implement trade reform before product-market reform, which is performed before labour market reform, achieve the transition more rapidly than those that follow the reverse sequence. In the course of the design process of the structural reform roadmap, economies must draw conclusions from the international experience and make adjustments based on their own circumstances.
引文
陈强(2016):《高级计量经济学及Stata应用》,北京:高等教育出版社。
郭熙保、朱兰(2017):《中等收入转型概率与动力因素:基于生存模型分析》,《数量经济技术经济研究》第10期。
Abiad, A.; Detragiache, E. and Tressel, T. “A New Database of Financial Reforms.” IMF staff papers, 2008, 57(2), pp.281-302.
Acemoglu, D. and Johnson, S. “Unbundling Institutions.” Journal of Political Economy, 2005, 113 (5), pp.949-995.
Acemoglu, D.; Johnson, S.; Querubin, P.and Robinson, J. A. “When Does Policy Reform Work? The Case of Central Bank Independence.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2008, 39(1), pp.351-429.
Aghion, P.; Askenazy, P.; Bourles, R.; Cette, G. and Dromel, N. “Education, Market Rigidities and Growth.” Economics Letters, 2009, 102 (1), pp.62-65.
Aghion, P.; Howitt, P. and Mayer-Foulkes, D. “The Effect of Financial Development on Convergence: Theory and Evidence.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2005, 120 (1), pp.173-222.
Arnold, J.M.; Javorcik, B.; Lipscomb, M. and Mattoo, A. “Services Reform and Manufacturing Performance: Evidence from India.” The Economic Journal, 2016, 126 (590), pp.1-39.
Bassanini, A. and Duval, R. “Unemployment, Institutions, and Reform Complementarities: Re-assessing the Aggregate Evidence for OECD Countries.” Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2009, 25(1), pp.40-59.
Ben-David, D. “Equalizing Exchange: Trade Liberalization and Income Convergence.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1993, 108(3), pp.653-679.
Ben-David, D. “Trade Liberalization and Income Convergence: A Comment.” Journal of International Economics, 2001, 55(1), pp.229-234.
Berg, A.; Ostry, J. D. and Zettelmeyer, J. “What Makes Growth Sustained?” Journal of Development Economics, 2012, 98(2), pp.149-166.
Boeri, T. and Garibaldi, P. “Two-Tier Reforms of Employment Protection: A Honeymoon Effect?” The Economic Journal, 2007,117(521), pp.357-385.
Buera, F. J.; Kaboski, J. P. and Shin, Y. “Finance and Development: A Tale of Two Sectors.”The American Economic Review, 2011, 101(5), pp.1964-2002.
Campos, N. F. and Kinoshita, Y. “Structural Reforms, Financial Liberalization, and Foreign Direct Investment.” IMF staff papers, 2010, 57(2), pp.326-365.
Christiansen, L.; Schindler, M. and Tressel, T. “Growth and Structural Reforms: A New Assessment.” Journal of International Economics, 2013, 89 (2): 347-356.
Conway, P.; De Rosa, D.; Nicoletti, G. and Steiner, F. “Product Market Regulation and Productivity Convergence.” OECD Economic Studies, 2006, 2(43), pp.39-76.
Dabla-Norris, E.; Guo, S.; Haksar, V.; Kim, M.; Kochhar, K.; Wiseman, K. and Zdzienicka, A. “The New Normal: A Sector-Level Perspective on Growth and Productivity Trends in Advanced Economies.” IMF staff discussion note, 2015, 3. pp.1-38.
Dabla-Norris, E.; Ho, G. and Kyobe, A. “Structural Reforms and Productivity Growth in Emerging Market and Developing Economies.” IMF working paper, No.16/15, 2016.
Dollar, D. and Kraay, A. “Trade, Growth, and Poverty.” Economic Journal, 2004, 114(493), pp.22-49.
Easterly W. “National Policies and Economic Growth: A Reappraisal,” in Philippe Aghion and Steven N. Durlauf, eds., Handbook of Economic Growth. Amsterdam: Elsevier, 2005.
Eichengreen, B. “Capital Account Liberalization: What do the Cross-country Studies Tell Us?” World Bank Economic Review, 2002, 15(3), pp.341-366.
Eichengreen, B.; Park, D. and Shin, K. “When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China.” NBER Working Papers, No.16919, 2011.
Fiori, G.; Nicoletti, G.; Scarpetta, S. and Schiantarelli, F. “Employment Outcomes and the Interaction Between Product and Labor Market Deregulation: Are They Substitutes or Complements?” IZA discussion paper, No.2770, 2007.
Fung, M. K. “Financial Development and Economic Growth: Convergence or Divergence?” Journal of International Money and Finance, 2009, 28(1), pp.56-67.
Hauner, D. and Prati, A. “Openness and Domestic Financial Liberalization: Which Comes First?” Second Singapore International Conference on Finance, 2008.
Hauner, D.; Prati, A. and Bircan, C. “The Interest Group Theory of Financial Development: Evidence from Regulation.” Journal of Banking and Finance, 2013, 37(3), pp.895-906.
Henrekson, M. and Johansson, D. “Firm Growth, Institutions and Structural Transformation.” IFN working paper, No.820, 2010.
IMF, “Structural Reforms and Macroeconomic Performance: Country Cases”, International Monetary Fund Policy Papers, 2015a.
IMF. “Structural Reforms and Macroeconomic Performance: Initial Considerations for the Fund.” International Monetary Fund Policy Papers, 2015b.
Kang, B.; Nabeshima, K. and Cheng, F. T. “Avoiding the Middle Income Trap: Indigenous Innovative Effort vs Foreign Innovative Effort.” IDE discussion paper, No.509, 2015.
Klein, M. W. and Olivei, G. P. “Capital Account Liberalization, Financial Depth, and Economic Growth.” Journal of International Money and Finance, 2008, 27(6), pp.861-875.
Krueger, A. O.; Schiff, M. W. and Valdès, A. The Political Economy of Agricultural Pricing Policy. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1992.
McKinnon, R. I. Money and Capital in Economic Development, Washington: The Brookings Institution, 1973.
Nabamita, D.; Russell, S. and Sanjukta, Roy. “Entrepreneurship and Political Risk.” Journal of Entrepreneurship and Public Policy, 2013, 2(2), pp.130-143
Nicoletti, G. and Scarpetta, S. “Regulation, Productivity and Growth: OECD Evidence.” Economic Policy, 2003, 18(36), pp.9-72.
Ostry, J. D. “Structural Reforms and Economic Performance in Advanced and Developing Countries.” IMF occasion papers, 2009, 268, pp.1-59.
Prati, A.; Onorato, M. G. and Papageorgiou, C. “Which Reforms Work and under What Institutional Environment? Evidence from a New Data Set on Structural Reforms.” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2013, 95(3), pp.946-968.
Rajan, R. G. and Zingales, L. “Financial Systems, Industrial Structure, and Growth.” Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2001, 17(4), pp.467-82.
Rajan, R. G. and Zingales, L. “The Great Reversals: The Politics of Financial Development in the Twentieth Century.” Journal of Financial Economics, 2003, 69, pp.5-50.
Sachs, J. D. and Warner, A. “Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1995, 1, pp.1-118.
Spilimbergo, A. and Che, N. X. “Structural Reforms and Regional Convergence.” IMF working paper, WP/12/106, 2012.
Sulemana, I. and Kpienbaareh, D. “An Empirical Examination of the Relationship between Income Inequality and Corruption in Africa.” Economic Analysis and Policy, 2018, 60, pp.27-42.
Tokarick, S. “Dispelling Some Misconceptions about Agricultural Trade Liberalization.” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2008, 22, pp.199-216.
Tressel, T. and Detragiache, E. “Do Financial Sector Reforms Lead to Financial Development? Evidence from a New Dataset.” IMF working paper, No.08/265, 2008.
USAID. “Accelerating Economic Growth Through Structural Reform.” U.S. Agency for International Development under Deixis Consulting Group Contract, No.AID-OAA-C-13-00075, 2017.
Wacziarg, R. and Welch, K. H. “Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence.” The World Bank Economic Review, 2008, 22(2), pp.187-231.
(1)包括经济体之间的收敛和经济体内部地区之间的收敛。
(2)限于篇幅经济体名单未列出。
(3)虽然当前借助生存分析研究宏观经济问题是新的趋势,但生存分析对样本前提条件的假定限制了该方法对宏观多经济体样本的适用性,现有的计量软件尚未开发出关于生存分析固定效应的操作,这是本文选用生存分析进行该项研究的局限性,笔者也将此作为未来研究的方向。
(4)EFW数据库的全称为Economic Freedom of the World,是加拿大Fraser Institute发布的年度数据指标。
(5)由于基尼系数缺失值太多,纳入模型会损失很多观测值,因此后续研究中只在部分模型中纳入了基尼系数。但就纳入的情况看,基尼系数提高、收入不平等加剧会对转型概率带来负效应。
(6)后续估计过程中尝试纳入表2中的控制变量,但会根据数据缺失情况而有所取舍。
(7)由于篇幅限制,逐一加入结构性改革指标的计量结果未汇报。
(8)受篇幅限制计量结果并未列出。
(9)受篇幅限制计量结果未列出。
(10)受篇幅所限未列出。
郭熙保、朱兰(2017):《中等收入转型概率与动力因素:基于生存模型分析》,《数量经济技术经济研究》第10期。
Abiad, A.; Detragiache, E. and Tressel, T. “A New Database of Financial Reforms.” IMF staff papers, 2008, 57(2), pp.281-302.
Acemoglu, D. and Johnson, S. “Unbundling Institutions.” Journal of Political Economy, 2005, 113 (5), pp.949-995.
Acemoglu, D.; Johnson, S.; Querubin, P.and Robinson, J. A. “When Does Policy Reform Work? The Case of Central Bank Independence.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2008, 39(1), pp.351-429.
Aghion, P.; Askenazy, P.; Bourles, R.; Cette, G. and Dromel, N. “Education, Market Rigidities and Growth.” Economics Letters, 2009, 102 (1), pp.62-65.
Aghion, P.; Howitt, P. and Mayer-Foulkes, D. “The Effect of Financial Development on Convergence: Theory and Evidence.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2005, 120 (1), pp.173-222.
Arnold, J.M.; Javorcik, B.; Lipscomb, M. and Mattoo, A. “Services Reform and Manufacturing Performance: Evidence from India.” The Economic Journal, 2016, 126 (590), pp.1-39.
Bassanini, A. and Duval, R. “Unemployment, Institutions, and Reform Complementarities: Re-assessing the Aggregate Evidence for OECD Countries.” Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2009, 25(1), pp.40-59.
Ben-David, D. “Equalizing Exchange: Trade Liberalization and Income Convergence.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1993, 108(3), pp.653-679.
Ben-David, D. “Trade Liberalization and Income Convergence: A Comment.” Journal of International Economics, 2001, 55(1), pp.229-234.
Berg, A.; Ostry, J. D. and Zettelmeyer, J. “What Makes Growth Sustained?” Journal of Development Economics, 2012, 98(2), pp.149-166.
Boeri, T. and Garibaldi, P. “Two-Tier Reforms of Employment Protection: A Honeymoon Effect?” The Economic Journal, 2007,117(521), pp.357-385.
Buera, F. J.; Kaboski, J. P. and Shin, Y. “Finance and Development: A Tale of Two Sectors.”The American Economic Review, 2011, 101(5), pp.1964-2002.
Campos, N. F. and Kinoshita, Y. “Structural Reforms, Financial Liberalization, and Foreign Direct Investment.” IMF staff papers, 2010, 57(2), pp.326-365.
Christiansen, L.; Schindler, M. and Tressel, T. “Growth and Structural Reforms: A New Assessment.” Journal of International Economics, 2013, 89 (2): 347-356.
Conway, P.; De Rosa, D.; Nicoletti, G. and Steiner, F. “Product Market Regulation and Productivity Convergence.” OECD Economic Studies, 2006, 2(43), pp.39-76.
Dabla-Norris, E.; Guo, S.; Haksar, V.; Kim, M.; Kochhar, K.; Wiseman, K. and Zdzienicka, A. “The New Normal: A Sector-Level Perspective on Growth and Productivity Trends in Advanced Economies.” IMF staff discussion note, 2015, 3. pp.1-38.
Dabla-Norris, E.; Ho, G. and Kyobe, A. “Structural Reforms and Productivity Growth in Emerging Market and Developing Economies.” IMF working paper, No.16/15, 2016.
Dollar, D. and Kraay, A. “Trade, Growth, and Poverty.” Economic Journal, 2004, 114(493), pp.22-49.
Easterly W. “National Policies and Economic Growth: A Reappraisal,” in Philippe Aghion and Steven N. Durlauf, eds., Handbook of Economic Growth. Amsterdam: Elsevier, 2005.
Eichengreen, B. “Capital Account Liberalization: What do the Cross-country Studies Tell Us?” World Bank Economic Review, 2002, 15(3), pp.341-366.
Eichengreen, B.; Park, D. and Shin, K. “When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China.” NBER Working Papers, No.16919, 2011.
Fiori, G.; Nicoletti, G.; Scarpetta, S. and Schiantarelli, F. “Employment Outcomes and the Interaction Between Product and Labor Market Deregulation: Are They Substitutes or Complements?” IZA discussion paper, No.2770, 2007.
Fung, M. K. “Financial Development and Economic Growth: Convergence or Divergence?” Journal of International Money and Finance, 2009, 28(1), pp.56-67.
Hauner, D. and Prati, A. “Openness and Domestic Financial Liberalization: Which Comes First?” Second Singapore International Conference on Finance, 2008.
Hauner, D.; Prati, A. and Bircan, C. “The Interest Group Theory of Financial Development: Evidence from Regulation.” Journal of Banking and Finance, 2013, 37(3), pp.895-906.
Henrekson, M. and Johansson, D. “Firm Growth, Institutions and Structural Transformation.” IFN working paper, No.820, 2010.
IMF, “Structural Reforms and Macroeconomic Performance: Country Cases”, International Monetary Fund Policy Papers, 2015a.
IMF. “Structural Reforms and Macroeconomic Performance: Initial Considerations for the Fund.” International Monetary Fund Policy Papers, 2015b.
Kang, B.; Nabeshima, K. and Cheng, F. T. “Avoiding the Middle Income Trap: Indigenous Innovative Effort vs Foreign Innovative Effort.” IDE discussion paper, No.509, 2015.
Klein, M. W. and Olivei, G. P. “Capital Account Liberalization, Financial Depth, and Economic Growth.” Journal of International Money and Finance, 2008, 27(6), pp.861-875.
Krueger, A. O.; Schiff, M. W. and Valdès, A. The Political Economy of Agricultural Pricing Policy. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1992.
McKinnon, R. I. Money and Capital in Economic Development, Washington: The Brookings Institution, 1973.
Nabamita, D.; Russell, S. and Sanjukta, Roy. “Entrepreneurship and Political Risk.” Journal of Entrepreneurship and Public Policy, 2013, 2(2), pp.130-143
Nicoletti, G. and Scarpetta, S. “Regulation, Productivity and Growth: OECD Evidence.” Economic Policy, 2003, 18(36), pp.9-72.
Ostry, J. D. “Structural Reforms and Economic Performance in Advanced and Developing Countries.” IMF occasion papers, 2009, 268, pp.1-59.
Prati, A.; Onorato, M. G. and Papageorgiou, C. “Which Reforms Work and under What Institutional Environment? Evidence from a New Data Set on Structural Reforms.” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2013, 95(3), pp.946-968.
Rajan, R. G. and Zingales, L. “Financial Systems, Industrial Structure, and Growth.” Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2001, 17(4), pp.467-82.
Rajan, R. G. and Zingales, L. “The Great Reversals: The Politics of Financial Development in the Twentieth Century.” Journal of Financial Economics, 2003, 69, pp.5-50.
Sachs, J. D. and Warner, A. “Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1995, 1, pp.1-118.
Spilimbergo, A. and Che, N. X. “Structural Reforms and Regional Convergence.” IMF working paper, WP/12/106, 2012.
Sulemana, I. and Kpienbaareh, D. “An Empirical Examination of the Relationship between Income Inequality and Corruption in Africa.” Economic Analysis and Policy, 2018, 60, pp.27-42.
Tokarick, S. “Dispelling Some Misconceptions about Agricultural Trade Liberalization.” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2008, 22, pp.199-216.
Tressel, T. and Detragiache, E. “Do Financial Sector Reforms Lead to Financial Development? Evidence from a New Dataset.” IMF working paper, No.08/265, 2008.
USAID. “Accelerating Economic Growth Through Structural Reform.” U.S. Agency for International Development under Deixis Consulting Group Contract, No.AID-OAA-C-13-00075, 2017.
Wacziarg, R. and Welch, K. H. “Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence.” The World Bank Economic Review, 2008, 22(2), pp.187-231.
(1)包括经济体之间的收敛和经济体内部地区之间的收敛。
(2)限于篇幅经济体名单未列出。
(3)虽然当前借助生存分析研究宏观经济问题是新的趋势,但生存分析对样本前提条件的假定限制了该方法对宏观多经济体样本的适用性,现有的计量软件尚未开发出关于生存分析固定效应的操作,这是本文选用生存分析进行该项研究的局限性,笔者也将此作为未来研究的方向。
(4)EFW数据库的全称为Economic Freedom of the World,是加拿大Fraser Institute发布的年度数据指标。
(5)由于基尼系数缺失值太多,纳入模型会损失很多观测值,因此后续研究中只在部分模型中纳入了基尼系数。但就纳入的情况看,基尼系数提高、收入不平等加剧会对转型概率带来负效应。
(6)后续估计过程中尝试纳入表2中的控制变量,但会根据数据缺失情况而有所取舍。
(7)由于篇幅限制,逐一加入结构性改革指标的计量结果未汇报。
(8)受篇幅限制计量结果并未列出。
(9)受篇幅限制计量结果未列出。
(10)受篇幅所限未列出。
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