近50年江苏省春季降水异常对冬油菜产量的潜在影响
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摘要
利用江苏省52个气象站1961～2012年日降水资料及冬油菜产量逐年数据,计算了春季10个类型的降水指数,并探讨了春季降水异常与产量的数量关系。结果表明:(1)近50年该省大部分地区春季的降雨量、降雨天数、强降水事件场次、连续降水的强度及持续性均呈现出较弱的减少趋势;(2)不同类型降水指数中,春季降水总量被筛选为指示产量波动的关键指标,其对冬油菜产量的负效应最为显著;(3)各站点的产量对春季降水总量的敏感性分析表明南部地区冬油菜种植对春季降水异常更为敏感;(4)近50年江苏大部分地区春季降水量的减少趋势给研究区冬油菜产量带来了一定幅度的增产。
Based on the daily precipitation record and yield data of winter oilseed rape at 52 meteorological stations in Jiangsu during 1961～2012, ten types of precipitation indices in spring were calculated, and the quantitative relationship between spring precipitation anomalies and yield were discussed. The results were as follows:(1) in the past 50 years, the precipitation amounts, number of rainy days, number of heavy precipitation events, intensity and persistence of continuous rainfalls in most areas of Jiangsu Province showed a weak decreasing trend during spring;(2) Among the different precipitation indices, the spring total precipitation was selected as the key indicator for yield fluctuation, and its negative effect on winter oilseed rape yield was the most significant;(3) Sensitivity analysis for yield to spring total precipitation showed that oilseed rape in the southern areas was more sensitive to spring precipitation anomalies;(4) The decreasing trend of spring precipitation in most areas of Jiangsu during recent 50 years brought a certain increase for winter oilseed rape yield.
Based on the daily precipitation record and yield data of winter oilseed rape at 52 meteorological stations in Jiangsu during 1961～2012, ten types of precipitation indices in spring were calculated, and the quantitative relationship between spring precipitation anomalies and yield were discussed. The results were as follows:(1) in the past 50 years, the precipitation amounts, number of rainy days, number of heavy precipitation events, intensity and persistence of continuous rainfalls in most areas of Jiangsu Province showed a weak decreasing trend during spring;(2) Among the different precipitation indices, the spring total precipitation was selected as the key indicator for yield fluctuation, and its negative effect on winter oilseed rape yield was the most significant;(3) Sensitivity analysis for yield to spring total precipitation showed that oilseed rape in the southern areas was more sensitive to spring precipitation anomalies;(4) The decreasing trend of spring precipitation in most areas of Jiangsu during recent 50 years brought a certain increase for winter oilseed rape yield.
引文
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[16] 李艳,马百胜,王琪,等.两类El Niňo事件对Hadley环流及中国气候的影响分析[J].兰州大学学报:自然科学版,2017,53(5):636-645.
[2] 鞠英芹,杨霏云,马德栗,等.江淮地区油菜渍害的时空分析[J].自然灾害学报,2017,26(6):136-146.
[3] 张佩,吴田,姚薇,等.江苏省油菜全生育期气候特征的变化分析[J].江苏农业科学,2015,43(9):118-121.
[4] 刘熔熔,吴利红,王增武.浙江省油菜花期降水量风险评估[J].浙江农业学报,2018,30(10):1624-1629.
[5] 范雨娴,霍治国,杨宏毅,等.湖南省油菜春季涝渍过程灾变判别指标[J].应用气象学报,2018,29(2):141-153.
[6] 刘瑞娜,杨太明,陈鹏,等.安徽省油菜花期连阴雨灾害损失评估指标[J].中国农业气象,2016,37(4):471-478.
[7] 余寒,杨凯,闵俊杰,等.近50年江苏省降雨侵蚀力的时空变化[J].江西农业学报,2018,30(10):106-111.
[8] 赵国永,韩艳,刘明华,等.1961～2013年河南省极端降水事件时空变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(6):115-120.
[9] 徐阳,孙莉娟,黄进,等.近50年江苏省极端降水时空变化及其对单季稻产量的影响[J].广东农业科学,2017,44(8):139-144.
[10] 丁文魁,杨晓玲.石羊河流域面雨量预报方法研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2011,22(5):69-73.
[11] 赵阳,胡春宏,张晓明,等.近70年黄河流域水沙情势及其成因分析[J].农业工程学报,2018,34(21):112-119.
[12] 刘佳旭,李丽娟,李九一,等.1954～2014年云南省降水变化特征与潜在的旱涝区域响应[J].地球信息科学学报,2016,18(8):1077-1086.
[13] 夏继勇,钟平安,刘畅,等.近58年大汶河流域降水量演变特征分析[J].水电能源科学,2017,35(3):6-10.
[14] 石晓丽,史文娇.极端高温对黄淮海平原冬小麦产量的影响[J].生态与农村环境学报,2016,32(2):259-269.
[15] 戴玥,邹建新,张丽婷.2014年江苏省一次春季连阴雨过程分析[C]//第31届中国气象学会年会S2 灾害天气监测、分析与预报.北京:[出版者不详],2014:1598-1605.
[16] 李艳,马百胜,王琪,等.两类El Niňo事件对Hadley环流及中国气候的影响分析[J].兰州大学学报:自然科学版,2017,53(5):636-645.
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