森林碳汇项目有助于减贫吗?
|
摘要
基于2005—2014年大兴安岭图强林业局碳汇造林项目的项目地潮河林场、奋斗林场、二十八站林场和育英林场的数据,建立结构方程模型对森林碳汇项目促进减贫的影响因素及其之间的关系进行实证分析。结果表明:森林碳汇项目通过促进社会就业情况和经济情况有助于减缓贫困,并且社会就业情况在减贫影响上比经济状况贡献度高;而森林碳汇项目造林阶段的造林面积对减缓贫困在一定程度上呈正相关关系。通过结果分析表明只有基于内生发展动力和贫困人口的自我发展能力的森林碳汇项目开发设计,由"输血型"模式变为"造血型"模式,才能更好地实现应对气候变化和缓解贫困两个目标。
(1)Background——Forest carbon sequestration,as a tool to realize beautiful China,is being gradually applied to coordinate the contradiction between ecological protection and economic and social development. At the same time,in addressing the challenges of emission reduction and poverty alleviation,forest carbon sequestration projects have a triple function of adapting to and mitigating climate change and poverty alleviation. So the forest carbon sequestration project has been entrusted with a new mission under the background of carrying out the two strategies of ecological civilization construction and precise poverty alleviation.(2)Methods——This paper is based on the data of Chaohe Forest Farm,Struggle Forest Farm,28 th Station Forest Farm and Yuying Forest Farm,which are the projects of the carbon sequestration afforestation project of Tuqiang Forestry Bureau in Greater Khingan Range from 2005 to 2014. The SPSS19. 0 statistical software is used to analyze the reliability and validity,and then the Amos software is used to establish the structural equation model to empirically analyze the influencing factors of forest carbon sequestration projects on poverty alleviation and the relationship between them.(3) Results——The initial fitting results did not reach the ideal state and the hypothetical path relation was not established. The modified model fitting results were obtained by deleting the annual emission reduction and industrialization degree of the project and correcting the error terms e2 and e5. The path coefficient of forest carbon sequestration project to economic situation is 0. 53,which indicates that forest carbon sequestration project has positive influence on economic situation. The path coefficient of forest carbon sequestration project to social employment is 0. 73,which indicates that forest carbon sequestration project has significantly positive effect on social employment. The path coefficient of forest carbon sequestration project to poverty reduction population is0. 176,which indicates that forest carbon sequestration project has positive correlation with poverty reduction population. The path coefficient of social employment to poverty reduction population is-0. 71,and the path coefficient of economic situation to poverty reduction population is-0. 48,which means that social employment and economic situation have negative influence on poverty reduction population.(4) Conclusions and Discussions——Forest carbon sequestration projects help alleviate poverty through social employment and economic conditions,in which social employment contributes more to poverty alleviation than economic conditions. At the same time,the afforestation area of the forest carbon sequestration project has not played a positive role in alleviating poverty during the afforestation stage,mainly because the methodology of forest carbon sequestration projects states that agricultural activities( crop planting,grazing) and logging are not permitted and diseased and dead trees should be treated on the spot during the project period. As a result,the rights of farmers to graze and cut down branches in the project forestland are deprived. Through the conclusions,the following Suggestions are proposed:(1)The participation enthusiasm of the poor in self-organization and self-development should be improved by providing employment opportunities and training opportunities;(2)In order to avoid the damage to the existing forestland rights and economy of the poor caused by the development of forest carbon sequestration project,the country should increase the investment of compensation funds for the poor;(3)The benefits of the poor should be taken into account in the development of forest carbon sequestration project,and the development of local economy,improvement of the living standard of the poor,and increase of the employment of the poor should be included in the project design.
(1)Background——Forest carbon sequestration,as a tool to realize beautiful China,is being gradually applied to coordinate the contradiction between ecological protection and economic and social development. At the same time,in addressing the challenges of emission reduction and poverty alleviation,forest carbon sequestration projects have a triple function of adapting to and mitigating climate change and poverty alleviation. So the forest carbon sequestration project has been entrusted with a new mission under the background of carrying out the two strategies of ecological civilization construction and precise poverty alleviation.(2)Methods——This paper is based on the data of Chaohe Forest Farm,Struggle Forest Farm,28 th Station Forest Farm and Yuying Forest Farm,which are the projects of the carbon sequestration afforestation project of Tuqiang Forestry Bureau in Greater Khingan Range from 2005 to 2014. The SPSS19. 0 statistical software is used to analyze the reliability and validity,and then the Amos software is used to establish the structural equation model to empirically analyze the influencing factors of forest carbon sequestration projects on poverty alleviation and the relationship between them.(3) Results——The initial fitting results did not reach the ideal state and the hypothetical path relation was not established. The modified model fitting results were obtained by deleting the annual emission reduction and industrialization degree of the project and correcting the error terms e2 and e5. The path coefficient of forest carbon sequestration project to economic situation is 0. 53,which indicates that forest carbon sequestration project has positive influence on economic situation. The path coefficient of forest carbon sequestration project to social employment is 0. 73,which indicates that forest carbon sequestration project has significantly positive effect on social employment. The path coefficient of forest carbon sequestration project to poverty reduction population is0. 176,which indicates that forest carbon sequestration project has positive correlation with poverty reduction population. The path coefficient of social employment to poverty reduction population is-0. 71,and the path coefficient of economic situation to poverty reduction population is-0. 48,which means that social employment and economic situation have negative influence on poverty reduction population.(4) Conclusions and Discussions——Forest carbon sequestration projects help alleviate poverty through social employment and economic conditions,in which social employment contributes more to poverty alleviation than economic conditions. At the same time,the afforestation area of the forest carbon sequestration project has not played a positive role in alleviating poverty during the afforestation stage,mainly because the methodology of forest carbon sequestration projects states that agricultural activities( crop planting,grazing) and logging are not permitted and diseased and dead trees should be treated on the spot during the project period. As a result,the rights of farmers to graze and cut down branches in the project forestland are deprived. Through the conclusions,the following Suggestions are proposed:(1)The participation enthusiasm of the poor in self-organization and self-development should be improved by providing employment opportunities and training opportunities;(2)In order to avoid the damage to the existing forestland rights and economy of the poor caused by the development of forest carbon sequestration project,the country should increase the investment of compensation funds for the poor;(3)The benefits of the poor should be taken into account in the development of forest carbon sequestration project,and the development of local economy,improvement of the living standard of the poor,and increase of the employment of the poor should be included in the project design.
引文
[1]李怒云,龚亚珍,章升东.林业碳汇项目的三重功能分析[J].世界林业研究,2006(3):1-5.
[2] OSCAR C,ROBYN H. Economic potential of land-use change and forestry for carbon sequestration and poverty reduction[R]. Australia:University of New England,2008:2-4.
[3]曾维忠,张建羽,杨帆.森林碳汇扶贫:理论探讨与现实思考[J].农村经济,2016(5):17-22.
[4]中国自愿减排交易平台.(2017-12-20)[2018-01-07]. http://cdm. ccchina. org. cn/ccer. aspx.
[5] ASQUITH N M,ROS M T V,SMITH J. Can forest-protection carbon projects improve rural livelihoods? Analysis of the Noel Kempff Mercado climate action project,Bolivia[J]. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,2002,7(4):323-337.
[6] BENESSAIAH K. Carbon and livelihoods in Post-Kyoto:Assessing voluntary carbon markets[J]. Ecological Economics,2012,77:1-6.
[7]李怒云,袁金鸿.林业碳汇自愿交易的中国样本:创建碳汇交易体系实现生态产品货币化[J].林业资源管理,2015(5):1-7.
[8]沈茂英.川西北藏区碳汇与碳汇扶贫相关问题探究[J].四川林勘设计,2017(2):1-8.
[9] SMITH J,SCHERR S J,Capturing the value of forest carbon for local livelihoods[J]. Word Development,2003,31(12),2143-2160.
[10] STRINGER L C,DOUGILL A J,THOMAS A D,et al. Challenges and opportunities in linking carbon sequestration,livelihoods and ecosystem service provision in Drylands[J]. Environmental Science&Policy,2012,19:121-135.
[11]曾维忠,刘胜,杨帆,等.扶贫视域下的森林碳汇研究综述[J].农业经济问题,2017,38(2):102-109,3.
[12]丁一,马盼盼.森林碳汇与川西少数民族地区经济发展研究:以四川省凉山彝族自治州越西县为例[J].农村经济,2013(5):38-41.
[13]赵涛,于晨霞,潘辉.我国低碳城市发展影响机制研究:基于35个副省级以上城市样本的实证分析[J].经济问题,2017(8):111-116.
[14]段伟,马奔,孙博,等.林业生态工程对山区减贫影响实证分析:一个结构方程模型(SEM)[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(12):8-12.
[15]李怒云,徐泽鸿,王春峰,等.中国造林再造林碳汇项目的优先发展区域选择与评价[J].林业科学,2007,43(7):5-9.
[16]张驰,曾维忠,龚荣发,等.基于灰色关联度模型的林业碳汇项目绩效影响因素分析:以四川省2个CDM项目为例[J].林业经济,2016(8):81-85.
[17]杨毅,张琳.环渝连片特困区精准扶贫效益评价及增进策略:基于SEM模型的实证分析[J].西南大学学报(社会科学版)2017,43(5):53-63.
[18]简盖元,冯亮明,王文烂,等.森林碳汇价值与农户林业收入增长的分析[J].林业经济问题,2010,30(4):304-308.
[19]陈冲影.森林碳汇与农户生计:以全球第一个森林碳汇项目为例[J].世界林业研究,2010,23(5):15-19.
[20]易爱军.森林资源与环境可持续发展研究:基于国有林场贫困视角[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,2015:20-26.
[21]吴明隆.结构方程模型:Amos实务进阶[M].重庆:重庆大学出版社,2013:177-178.
[2] OSCAR C,ROBYN H. Economic potential of land-use change and forestry for carbon sequestration and poverty reduction[R]. Australia:University of New England,2008:2-4.
[3]曾维忠,张建羽,杨帆.森林碳汇扶贫:理论探讨与现实思考[J].农村经济,2016(5):17-22.
[4]中国自愿减排交易平台.(2017-12-20)[2018-01-07]. http://cdm. ccchina. org. cn/ccer. aspx.
[5] ASQUITH N M,ROS M T V,SMITH J. Can forest-protection carbon projects improve rural livelihoods? Analysis of the Noel Kempff Mercado climate action project,Bolivia[J]. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,2002,7(4):323-337.
[6] BENESSAIAH K. Carbon and livelihoods in Post-Kyoto:Assessing voluntary carbon markets[J]. Ecological Economics,2012,77:1-6.
[7]李怒云,袁金鸿.林业碳汇自愿交易的中国样本:创建碳汇交易体系实现生态产品货币化[J].林业资源管理,2015(5):1-7.
[8]沈茂英.川西北藏区碳汇与碳汇扶贫相关问题探究[J].四川林勘设计,2017(2):1-8.
[9] SMITH J,SCHERR S J,Capturing the value of forest carbon for local livelihoods[J]. Word Development,2003,31(12),2143-2160.
[10] STRINGER L C,DOUGILL A J,THOMAS A D,et al. Challenges and opportunities in linking carbon sequestration,livelihoods and ecosystem service provision in Drylands[J]. Environmental Science&Policy,2012,19:121-135.
[11]曾维忠,刘胜,杨帆,等.扶贫视域下的森林碳汇研究综述[J].农业经济问题,2017,38(2):102-109,3.
[12]丁一,马盼盼.森林碳汇与川西少数民族地区经济发展研究:以四川省凉山彝族自治州越西县为例[J].农村经济,2013(5):38-41.
[13]赵涛,于晨霞,潘辉.我国低碳城市发展影响机制研究:基于35个副省级以上城市样本的实证分析[J].经济问题,2017(8):111-116.
[14]段伟,马奔,孙博,等.林业生态工程对山区减贫影响实证分析:一个结构方程模型(SEM)[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(12):8-12.
[15]李怒云,徐泽鸿,王春峰,等.中国造林再造林碳汇项目的优先发展区域选择与评价[J].林业科学,2007,43(7):5-9.
[16]张驰,曾维忠,龚荣发,等.基于灰色关联度模型的林业碳汇项目绩效影响因素分析:以四川省2个CDM项目为例[J].林业经济,2016(8):81-85.
[17]杨毅,张琳.环渝连片特困区精准扶贫效益评价及增进策略:基于SEM模型的实证分析[J].西南大学学报(社会科学版)2017,43(5):53-63.
[18]简盖元,冯亮明,王文烂,等.森林碳汇价值与农户林业收入增长的分析[J].林业经济问题,2010,30(4):304-308.
[19]陈冲影.森林碳汇与农户生计:以全球第一个森林碳汇项目为例[J].世界林业研究,2010,23(5):15-19.
[20]易爱军.森林资源与环境可持续发展研究:基于国有林场贫困视角[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,2015:20-26.
[21]吴明隆.结构方程模型:Amos实务进阶[M].重庆:重庆大学出版社,2013:177-178.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |