1986～2017年农家消费行为变迁研究——以山西十村千户为观察样本
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摘要
本文基于国家农村固定观察点农户数据(1986～2017年),采取统计分析方法对山西十村千户农家消费水平、消费结构及变化趋势,主要生活品消费及市场化进程,主要服务性消费水平及变化趋势,平均和边际消费倾向及消费弹性等问题进行了实证研究,发现:随着农村经济的发展和农户收入水平的提高,农家生活消费结构已发生明显变化,生活消费支出份额呈持续下降趋势,而服务消费支出份额(尤其医疗消费)则呈快速上升趋势;在农家粮食生产"口粮化"、农业生产"简单化"的趋势下,家庭消费货币化和商品化程度稳中有升;在整个观察期,农家消费倾向于从生活消费向服务消费转型升级,以衣、食、住及用品为代表的温饱型消费倾向下降趋势明显,而以服务和燃料为代表的小康和富裕型消费倾向呈稳步上升趋势。
Based on the farmers' data(1986-2017) collected by the fixed observation points in the rural areas, this paper adopts a statistical analysis method to empirically study the consumption level, structure and trends of 1,000 households in ten villages of Shanxi; the consumption and marketization of major household goods; level and trends of main service consumption; and the average and marginal propensity to consume and the elasticity of consumption. It is found that with the growth of rural economy and the income of farmers, the consumption structure of farmers had changed significantly, and the share of food consumption expenditure kept going downward, while the share of service consumption expenditure(especially medical consumption) showed a rapid upward trend; under the backdrop of grain production kept for own use and "simplified" agricultural production, the degree of household consumption monetization and commercialization had been steadily growing. During the whole observation period, farmer households tended to shift away from food consumption to service consumption. Necessity consumption, represented by clothing, food, housing and daily goods, was declining, while the well-off and wealthy consumption propensities, represented by services and fuels respectively, were on a steady upward trend.
Based on the farmers' data(1986-2017) collected by the fixed observation points in the rural areas, this paper adopts a statistical analysis method to empirically study the consumption level, structure and trends of 1,000 households in ten villages of Shanxi; the consumption and marketization of major household goods; level and trends of main service consumption; and the average and marginal propensity to consume and the elasticity of consumption. It is found that with the growth of rural economy and the income of farmers, the consumption structure of farmers had changed significantly, and the share of food consumption expenditure kept going downward, while the share of service consumption expenditure(especially medical consumption) showed a rapid upward trend; under the backdrop of grain production kept for own use and "simplified" agricultural production, the degree of household consumption monetization and commercialization had been steadily growing. During the whole observation period, farmer households tended to shift away from food consumption to service consumption. Necessity consumption, represented by clothing, food, housing and daily goods, was declining, while the well-off and wealthy consumption propensities, represented by services and fuels respectively, were on a steady upward trend.
引文
晋洪涛,2013,《理性与效率:农户粮食生产行为研究》,北京:中国农业出版社。
彭小辉、王玉琴、史清华,2017,《山西农家行为变迁:1986~2012》,北京:中国农业出版社。
史清华,2005,《农户经济可持续发展研究》,北京:中国农业出版社。
史清华、程名望、徐翠萍,2007,《中国农业新政策变化的政策效应》,《中国人口科学》,第6期,第51~61页。
史清华、王安庞、申潞玲,2000,《农户消费行为及购买力问题研究》,太原:山西人民出版社。
史清华、徐翠萍,2008,《长三角农户服务消费行为的变迁:1986~2005》,《农业经济问题》,第3期,第64~72页。
[美]E·曼斯菲尔德,1992,《微观经济学:理论与应用》,北京:中国金融出版社。
Stock&Watson,2011,Introduction to Economics,3rd edition,Boston:Addison-Wesley.
[1]由于收入和消费水平受物价水平的影响很大,为了消除物价因素对收入和消费的影响,我们利用山西农村居民消费价格指数(1986=100)进行去通胀处理,文中涉及的价值数据如没有特殊说明均同此;文中涉及的图表1992、1994年数据均未统计。
[2]2010年3月23日,财政部、商务部、工业和信息化部发布关于印发《新增家电下乡补贴品种实施方案》及确认新增补贴品种等有关问题的通知(财建[2010]62号)。根据新增家电下乡补贴产品范围的新规定,河北、山西、江苏、安徽、江西、山东、河南、湖北、云南和陕西共有10个省份选择了电动自行车实施下乡补贴。
[3]恩格尔系数是食品消费支出占消费支出的比重,国际上通用该系数来衡量居民生活水平的高低,联合国粮农组织根据一个国家平均家庭恩格尔系数大于60%为贫穷;50%~60%为温饱;40%~50%为小康;30%~40%属于相对富裕;30%以下为最富裕。
[4]2007年年底,受金融危机的影响,国家相继推出了家电下乡、以旧换新等一系列消费促进政策;2007年12月起,家电下乡开始在山东、河南和四川三省试点,农民购买补贴范围内的家电产品可以获得13%的财政补贴;2009年2月开始,这一政策在全国范围推广,直到2013年1月31日结束。
[5]事实上,已更新了不下三代,由黑白,到彩色,由小屏到大屏,再到平板,到液晶。
彭小辉、王玉琴、史清华,2017,《山西农家行为变迁:1986~2012》,北京:中国农业出版社。
史清华,2005,《农户经济可持续发展研究》,北京:中国农业出版社。
史清华、程名望、徐翠萍,2007,《中国农业新政策变化的政策效应》,《中国人口科学》,第6期,第51~61页。
史清华、王安庞、申潞玲,2000,《农户消费行为及购买力问题研究》,太原:山西人民出版社。
史清华、徐翠萍,2008,《长三角农户服务消费行为的变迁:1986~2005》,《农业经济问题》,第3期,第64~72页。
[美]E·曼斯菲尔德,1992,《微观经济学:理论与应用》,北京:中国金融出版社。
Stock&Watson,2011,Introduction to Economics,3rd edition,Boston:Addison-Wesley.
[1]由于收入和消费水平受物价水平的影响很大,为了消除物价因素对收入和消费的影响,我们利用山西农村居民消费价格指数(1986=100)进行去通胀处理,文中涉及的价值数据如没有特殊说明均同此;文中涉及的图表1992、1994年数据均未统计。
[2]2010年3月23日,财政部、商务部、工业和信息化部发布关于印发《新增家电下乡补贴品种实施方案》及确认新增补贴品种等有关问题的通知(财建[2010]62号)。根据新增家电下乡补贴产品范围的新规定,河北、山西、江苏、安徽、江西、山东、河南、湖北、云南和陕西共有10个省份选择了电动自行车实施下乡补贴。
[3]恩格尔系数是食品消费支出占消费支出的比重,国际上通用该系数来衡量居民生活水平的高低,联合国粮农组织根据一个国家平均家庭恩格尔系数大于60%为贫穷;50%~60%为温饱;40%~50%为小康;30%~40%属于相对富裕;30%以下为最富裕。
[4]2007年年底,受金融危机的影响,国家相继推出了家电下乡、以旧换新等一系列消费促进政策;2007年12月起,家电下乡开始在山东、河南和四川三省试点,农民购买补贴范围内的家电产品可以获得13%的财政补贴;2009年2月开始,这一政策在全国范围推广,直到2013年1月31日结束。
[5]事实上,已更新了不下三代,由黑白,到彩色,由小屏到大屏,再到平板,到液晶。
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