“一带一路”沿线国家温室气体排放特征与结构
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摘要
在绿色经济发展趋势下,中国政府积极倡议建立"一带一路"绿色发展国际联盟,这离不开对"一带一路"沿线国家温室气体排放特征与减排立场的掌握。构建"一带一路"沿线国家CH4减排潜力指数,梳理1990—2014年"一带一路"沿线国家温室气体排放现状、排放来源,以期为"一带一路"绿色发展联盟相关政策的制定提供参考。结果显示:"一带一路"沿线国家高排放总量与高人均排放量空间分离,形成了"高总量-低人均"和"高人均-低总量"的两类排放特征;除CO2外,"一带一路"沿线国家CH4排放超世界平均水平,CH4减排不容忽视;"一带一路"温室气体排放源存在国家间差异,大多数国家以能源产业部门为主要排放源,但农业部门排放、土地利用变化和森林植被变化也构成了阿富汗、孟加拉国等国家的主要排放源。
Under the trend of green economic development,the Chinese government has actively advocated the establishment of an international alliance along the Belt and Road,which is inseparable from the grasp of the Belt and Road countries on the greenhouse gas emission characteristics and position of emission reduction.The study analyzed herein uses greenhouse gas(CHG) emissions data during the 1990—2014 in the countries along the Belt and Road and carries out a trend analysis of the commitments(NDC) made by individual government in the countries along the Belt and Road to explore the future GHG emission reduction trend.The present situation and sources of greenhouse gas emissions of countries along the Belt and Road from 1990 to 2014 are summarized,so as to provide reference for the formulation of related policies of he Belt and Road green development alliance.The results suggest that countries with high GHG emissions tend to have low per capita emissions,while countries with high per capita emissions have lower total emissions along the Belt and Road,forming "high gross-low per capita"and "high per capita-low aggregate"two types of emission characteristics.The results also show that in addition to CO_2,CH_4 emission of countries along the Belt and Road exceeds the world average,and CH_4 emission reduction cannot be ignored;the Belt and Road greenhouse gas emission sources vary among countries.Most countries take the energy industry sector as the main emission source,but agricultural sector emissions,land use change and forest vegetation change also constitute the main emission sources of Afghanistan,Bangladesh and other countries.
Under the trend of green economic development,the Chinese government has actively advocated the establishment of an international alliance along the Belt and Road,which is inseparable from the grasp of the Belt and Road countries on the greenhouse gas emission characteristics and position of emission reduction.The study analyzed herein uses greenhouse gas(CHG) emissions data during the 1990—2014 in the countries along the Belt and Road and carries out a trend analysis of the commitments(NDC) made by individual government in the countries along the Belt and Road to explore the future GHG emission reduction trend.The present situation and sources of greenhouse gas emissions of countries along the Belt and Road from 1990 to 2014 are summarized,so as to provide reference for the formulation of related policies of he Belt and Road green development alliance.The results suggest that countries with high GHG emissions tend to have low per capita emissions,while countries with high per capita emissions have lower total emissions along the Belt and Road,forming "high gross-low per capita"and "high per capita-low aggregate"two types of emission characteristics.The results also show that in addition to CO_2,CH_4 emission of countries along the Belt and Road exceeds the world average,and CH_4 emission reduction cannot be ignored;the Belt and Road greenhouse gas emission sources vary among countries.Most countries take the energy industry sector as the main emission source,but agricultural sector emissions,land use change and forest vegetation change also constitute the main emission sources of Afghanistan,Bangladesh and other countries.
引文
[1]傅京燕,司秀梅.“一带一路”沿线国家碳排放驱动因素、减排贡献与潜力[J].热带地理,2017(1):1-9.
[2]张文博,邓玲,尹传斌.“一带一路”主要节点城市的绿色经济效率评价及影响因素分析[J].经济问题探索,2017(11):84-90.
[3]刘明辉,袁培.“一带一路”背景下中巴能源消费结构与经济增长关联性比较研究[J].财经理论研究,2015(5):31-37.
[4]邬波,葛察忠,程翠云,等.建设绿色“一带一路”的重要性———以乌兹别克斯坦资源环境特点为例[J].环境保护科学,2016(6):23-28.
[5]徐如浓,吴玉鸣.文化如何影响“一带一路”沿线国家的碳排放?———环境库兹涅茨曲线框架下的实证研究[J].生态经济,2018(7):14-19,24.
[6]刘培林.印度城市化的特点及经验教训[J].城乡建设,2010(10):76-78.
[7]林梅.印度尼西亚工业化进程及其政策演变[J].东南亚纵横,2011(6):11-15.
[8]张海滨.印度:一个国际气候变化谈判中有声有色的主角[J].世界环境,2009(1):30-33.
[9]潘瑶,苏凯文,王俊,等.缅甸森林资源管理与木材利用[J].西南林业大学学报(社会科学),2017(1):55-60.
[10]一森.印度尼西亚森林面临新的威胁[J].世界林业动态,2004(27):10-10.
(1)http://money. 163. com/14/1124/09/ABQBV4KI00254TI5. html.
(2)http://politics. people. com. cn/n1/2017/1104/c1001-29626498. html.
(1)65个国家包括:蒙古、伊朗、伊拉克、土耳其、叙利亚、约旦、黎巴嫩、以色列、巴勒斯坦、沙特阿拉伯、也门、阿曼、阿联酋、卡塔尔、科威特、巴林、希腊、塞浦路斯、埃及、印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉国、阿富汗、斯里兰卡、马尔代夫、尼泊尔、不丹、哈萨克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、土库曼斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、新加坡、马来西亚、印度尼西亚、缅甸、泰国、老挝、柬埔寨、越南、文莱、菲律宾、俄罗斯、乌克兰、白俄罗斯、格鲁吉亚、阿塞拜疆、亚美尼亚、摩尔多瓦、波兰、立陶宛、爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚、捷克、斯洛伐克、匈牙利、斯洛文尼亚、克罗地亚、波黑、黑山、塞尔维亚、阿尔巴尼亚、罗马尼亚、保加利亚、马其顿。需要说明的是,本文主要分析除我国以外的“一带一路”沿线国家的排放现状。
(1)http://china. huanqiu. com/News/mofcom/2015-09/7495109. html.
(2)http://www. sohu. com/a/201361961_162522.
(1)这19个国家包括:俄罗斯、乌克兰、格鲁吉亚、摩尔多瓦、立宛淘、爱沙尼亚、捷克、斯洛伐克、保加利亚、塔克吉斯坦、希腊、塞浦路斯、新加坡、阿塞拜疆、波兰、斯洛文尼亚、克罗地亚、白俄罗斯和匈牙利。
[2]张文博,邓玲,尹传斌.“一带一路”主要节点城市的绿色经济效率评价及影响因素分析[J].经济问题探索,2017(11):84-90.
[3]刘明辉,袁培.“一带一路”背景下中巴能源消费结构与经济增长关联性比较研究[J].财经理论研究,2015(5):31-37.
[4]邬波,葛察忠,程翠云,等.建设绿色“一带一路”的重要性———以乌兹别克斯坦资源环境特点为例[J].环境保护科学,2016(6):23-28.
[5]徐如浓,吴玉鸣.文化如何影响“一带一路”沿线国家的碳排放?———环境库兹涅茨曲线框架下的实证研究[J].生态经济,2018(7):14-19,24.
[6]刘培林.印度城市化的特点及经验教训[J].城乡建设,2010(10):76-78.
[7]林梅.印度尼西亚工业化进程及其政策演变[J].东南亚纵横,2011(6):11-15.
[8]张海滨.印度:一个国际气候变化谈判中有声有色的主角[J].世界环境,2009(1):30-33.
[9]潘瑶,苏凯文,王俊,等.缅甸森林资源管理与木材利用[J].西南林业大学学报(社会科学),2017(1):55-60.
[10]一森.印度尼西亚森林面临新的威胁[J].世界林业动态,2004(27):10-10.
(1)http://money. 163. com/14/1124/09/ABQBV4KI00254TI5. html.
(2)http://politics. people. com. cn/n1/2017/1104/c1001-29626498. html.
(1)65个国家包括:蒙古、伊朗、伊拉克、土耳其、叙利亚、约旦、黎巴嫩、以色列、巴勒斯坦、沙特阿拉伯、也门、阿曼、阿联酋、卡塔尔、科威特、巴林、希腊、塞浦路斯、埃及、印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉国、阿富汗、斯里兰卡、马尔代夫、尼泊尔、不丹、哈萨克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、土库曼斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、新加坡、马来西亚、印度尼西亚、缅甸、泰国、老挝、柬埔寨、越南、文莱、菲律宾、俄罗斯、乌克兰、白俄罗斯、格鲁吉亚、阿塞拜疆、亚美尼亚、摩尔多瓦、波兰、立陶宛、爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚、捷克、斯洛伐克、匈牙利、斯洛文尼亚、克罗地亚、波黑、黑山、塞尔维亚、阿尔巴尼亚、罗马尼亚、保加利亚、马其顿。需要说明的是,本文主要分析除我国以外的“一带一路”沿线国家的排放现状。
(1)http://china. huanqiu. com/News/mofcom/2015-09/7495109. html.
(2)http://www. sohu. com/a/201361961_162522.
(1)这19个国家包括:俄罗斯、乌克兰、格鲁吉亚、摩尔多瓦、立宛淘、爱沙尼亚、捷克、斯洛伐克、保加利亚、塔克吉斯坦、希腊、塞浦路斯、新加坡、阿塞拜疆、波兰、斯洛文尼亚、克罗地亚、白俄罗斯和匈牙利。
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