中国海洋经济绿色发展水平综合测度与时空演化研究
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摘要
文章通过构建海洋经济绿色发展水平评价指标体系,利用集对分析法、Kernel密度估计函数及GIS空间分析技术对2006—2014年中国沿海11个省、市、自治区海洋经济绿色发展水平进行综合测度,并分析其动态演化趋势。研究结果表明:(1)通过集对分析法初步计算出2006—2014年中国沿海11个省、市、自治区海洋经济绿色发展水平总体呈现波动上升趋势。(2)通过Kernel密度估计模型计算得出,2006—2014年中国海洋经济绿色发展水平程度逐渐由地区之间均匀分布到两极分化分布的趋势,绿色发展高水平地区发展速度快于低水平地区。2006—2010年中国海洋经济绿色发展水平进程缓慢,2010—2014年绿色发展水平速度加快。(3)根据集对分析法计算的海洋经济绿色发展水平评价结果,采用自然断裂点法将中国沿海11个省、市、自治区海洋经济绿色发展水平划分为3类地区:上海、广东、天津为海洋经济绿色发展高水平地区;山东、福建、浙江、江苏、辽宁为海洋经济绿色发展中等水平地区;海南、河北、广西是海洋经济绿色发展低水平地区。
By set pair analysis,the green economic development of 11 coastal provinces in China during 2006—2014 were analyzed with comprehensive measurements.Also,the Kernel density estimation model and GIS spatial analysis technology were utilized to study the tendency and rule of spatial-temporal evolution of green development of marine economy.Related policy suggestions were proposed to adapt to local conditions based on different levels of green development of marine economy in each province.The primary research achievements of the essay are as follow:First of all,the overall green development of marine economy in 11 coastal provinces in China during 2006—2014 period tends to rise volatility by means of the preliminary calculation of the set pair analysis.Secondly,it can be seen from the calculation of Kernel density estimation model that there was a trend which gradually spread from area to area and tow-level differentiation in 2006—2014.Development of high-level green areas was faster than low-levels areas in 2006—2014.There was a slowdown in the growing of green development of our national marine economy during 2006 to 2010,but there was speed up of the green development of marine economy during 2010 to 2014.Thirdly,in accordance with the set pair analysis,using the natural point fracture method evaluation result of the green development of marine economy was produced.The paper divided the 11 coastal provinces of China into 3 types of regions:Shanghai,Guangdong and Tianjin as the high-level regions of green development of marine economy;Shandong,Fujian,Zhejiang,Jiangsu and Liaoning as the middle level regions of green development of marine economy;Hainan,Hebei,Guangxi as regions of that low level of green development of marine economy.
By set pair analysis,the green economic development of 11 coastal provinces in China during 2006—2014 were analyzed with comprehensive measurements.Also,the Kernel density estimation model and GIS spatial analysis technology were utilized to study the tendency and rule of spatial-temporal evolution of green development of marine economy.Related policy suggestions were proposed to adapt to local conditions based on different levels of green development of marine economy in each province.The primary research achievements of the essay are as follow:First of all,the overall green development of marine economy in 11 coastal provinces in China during 2006—2014 period tends to rise volatility by means of the preliminary calculation of the set pair analysis.Secondly,it can be seen from the calculation of Kernel density estimation model that there was a trend which gradually spread from area to area and tow-level differentiation in 2006—2014.Development of high-level green areas was faster than low-levels areas in 2006—2014.There was a slowdown in the growing of green development of our national marine economy during 2006 to 2010,but there was speed up of the green development of marine economy during 2010 to 2014.Thirdly,in accordance with the set pair analysis,using the natural point fracture method evaluation result of the green development of marine economy was produced.The paper divided the 11 coastal provinces of China into 3 types of regions:Shanghai,Guangdong and Tianjin as the high-level regions of green development of marine economy;Shandong,Fujian,Zhejiang,Jiangsu and Liaoning as the middle level regions of green development of marine economy;Hainan,Hebei,Guangxi as regions of that low level of green development of marine economy.
引文
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[3]Green Growth Advisory Group.Greening New Zealand’s Growth[C]//New Zealand:report of the Green Growth Advisory Group,2011:8-15.
[4]SARTORIUS L.Green Growth Unraveled:How Rebound Effects Baffle Sustainability Target’s when the Economy keeps Growing,Berlin:Heinrich Boll Foundation and Wuppertal Institute for Climate[J].Environment and Energy,2012:23.
[5]HUBERTY M,GAO H,DELL J M.Shaping the Green Growth Economy:A Review of the Public Debate and the prospects for Green Growth[M].United Kingdom:CDKN Guide,2010:6.
[6]UTLUA Z,HEPBASLI A.A review on analyzing and evaluating the energy utilization efficiency of countries[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2007,11(1):1-29.
[7]BOSSEBOEUF D,CHATEAU L B.Cross-country comparison on energy efficiency indicators:The on-going European effort towards a common methodology[J].Energy Policy,1997,25(7-9):673-682.
[8]NATARAJA N U,GUJJA B.Green economy:policy framework for sustainable development[J].Current Science,2011,100(7):961-962.
[9]RICARDO M O.Governance of international trade for the green economy[J].Review of policy Research,2011,28(5):479-488.
[10]DESOMBRE E R.Global environmental governance for a new green economy[J].Review of Policy Research,2011,28(5):467-474.
[11]洪伟东.促进我国海洋经济绿色发展[J].宏观经济管理,2016(1):64-66.
[12]吴淑娟,罗少玉,肖健华.中国海洋经济绿色效率的测量及其影响因素[J],工业技术经济,2015(11):105-111.
[13]刘小锋,陈思增.福建海洋经济绿色发展实施效果评价研究[J].福建江夏学院学报,2014,4(6):9-14.
[14]赵聪蛟,赵斌,周燕.基于海洋生态文明及绿色发展的海洋环境实时监测[J].海洋开发与管理,2017,34(5):91-97.
[15]刘书明,张文亮,崔肖健,等.关于推进天津滨海新区海洋生态文明建设的思考[J].海洋开发与管理,2014,31(2):73-77.
[16]张德贤.海洋经济可持续发展理论研究[M].青岛:青岛海洋大学出版社,2000.
[17]狄乾斌,韩雨汐.熵视角下的中国海洋生态系统可持续发展能力分析[J].地理科学,2014,34(6):664-671.
[18]国家海洋局.中国海洋统计年鉴[M].北京:海洋出版社,2000-2014.
[19]国家海洋局.中国海洋年鉴[M].北京:海洋出版社,2007-2011.
[20]国家统计局国民经济综合统计司.中国区域统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2001-2013.
[21]鲍学英,李海连,王起才.基于灰色关联分析和主成分分析组合权重的确定方法研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2016,46(9):129-134.
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