基于碳排放态势推演的电网碳资产管理策略分析

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英文篇名：Power Grid Carbon Asset Management Strategy Analysis Based on Carbon Emission Extrapolation 作者：黄杰 ; 薛峰 ; 张鹏飞 ; 金榜 ; 李晓飞 ; 王放 ; 钱锋 英文作者：HUANG Jie;XUE Feng;ZHANG Pengfei;JIN Bang;LI Xiaofei;WANG Fang;QIAN Feng;NARI Group Corporation (State Grid Electric Power Research Institute);State Grid Corporation of China; 关键词：碳市场 ; 电网企业 ; 碳资产管理 ; 支持向量机 ; 数据挖掘 英文关键词：carbon market;;power grid companies;;carbon asset management;;support vector machine;;data mining 中文刊名：全球能源互联网 英文刊名：Journal of Global Energy Interconnection 机构：南瑞集团有限公司(国网电力科学研究院有限公司);国家电网有限公司; 出版日期：2019-05-23 出版单位：全球能源互联网 年：2019 期：03 基金：国家电网公司科技项目“基于电网发展全过程效益分析的精益投资优化方法研究”(SGTYHT/17-JS-199);; 国电南瑞科技股份有限公司项目“综合能源系统仿真评估关键技术研究”~~ 语种：中文; 页：86-92 页数：7 CN：10-1550/TK ISSN：2096-5125 分类号：X322;F426.61;F406.7

摘要

电网输配电网损引发的间接碳排放已被我国部分试点碳市场纳入管控。参与碳市场对电网企业而言是机遇也是挑战,电网作为服务低碳能源转型的减排平台,其网损水平并不完全取决于自身管理能力,网损水平的波动使得电网企业暴露于碳市场履约风险之下。前期已基于支持向量机方法,采用2012～2016年能源主管部门披露的某省有关数据,构建了网损统计分析模型。进一步根据某省发展规划构建多个未来发展假想场景,根据试点碳市场规则,对2017～2020年期间某省电网网损水平和碳排放配额仓位进行态势推演。基于碳排放配额仓位推演结果,进一步评估了配额跨期使用、碳抵消机制使用、碳市场灵活交易等碳资产管理措施在不同假想场景下的风险防控效果,提出了电网企业在具备不同技术条件和风险偏好时的碳资产管理策略。最后,针对现行电网行业碳排放配额分配方案,指出仍需进一步量化评估电网的减排平台作用,制定更为科学的配额分配方案。
        The indirect carbon emission inducted by power grid losses have been included in the regulation of several pilot carbon markets in China. Participating in the carbon market is both an opportunity and a challenge for power grid companies. As a emission reduction platform for low-carbon energy transition,the level of power grid loss does not depend entirely on power grid companies' management and technology capabilities.The fluctuations in power grid loss levels may expose power grid companies to carbon market compliance risks. Based on the statistical analysis model developed in advance, future development hypothesis scenarios are constructed in this paper.According to the rules of pilot carbon market in China, grid loss levels and emission allowance positions are extrapolated and analyzed, based on which different carbon asset management methods are evaluated and compared. Carbon asset management strategies are proposed for companies with different technical conditions and risk preferences. Finally, in view of the current carbon emission allowance allocation plan for the power grid industry, the necessity to further quantify the contribution of power grid as an emission reduction platform is emphasized, and to formulate more reasonable emission allowance allocation plan.

引文

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