碳排放交易制度下的低碳经济发展——基于非期望DEA与DID模型的分析
|
摘要
利用Malmquist-Luenberger指数方法测算我国2004-2016年低碳经济全要素生产率增长,在测算出各省份低碳经济全要素生产率增长的基础上,利用DID(diffelence in difference)模型检验碳排放交易制度对低碳经济全要素生产率增长的政策效应.通过模型检验的结果分析,得出碳排放交易制度对发展低碳经济起到正向作用的结论,其中主要是由于碳排放交易制度提高了技术效率,从而促进低碳经济增长.但是,由于碳排放交易制度在我国的推行尚处于初级阶段,其对发展低碳经济的作用较小.并且在对政策效应进行时间趋势检验时发现,政策效应呈现出倒"U"型结构,由此说明政策效应有一定的滞后性,并且伴随着时间的推移有所减弱.该文提出应从扩大碳排放交易范围、规范政府行为以及综合多种减排方式等方面促进低碳经济发展.
The Malmquist-Luenberger index method was used to measure the low-carbon economy total factor productivity growth in 2004-2016. Based on the calculation of low-carbon economy total factor productivity growth of each province, the DID model was used to test the carbon emission trading scheme for low-carbon economy total factor productivity growth. Through the analysis of the results of the model test, it was concluded that the carbon emission trading scheme played a positive role in the development of a low-carbon economy. The main reason was that the carbon emission trading scheme improved the technical efficiency, thus promoting the growth of the low-carbon economy. However, the implementation of the carbon emission trading scheme in China was still in its infancy, and its role in the development of a low-carbon economy was relatively small. A time trend test of the policy effect found that the policy effect exhibited an inverted "U"-type structure, which showed that the policy effect had a certain lag and was weakened with the passage of time. Finally, it was proposed that the development of the low-carbon economy should be promoted from the aspects of expanding the scope of carbon emission trading, regulating government behavior, and integrating multiple emission reduction methods.
The Malmquist-Luenberger index method was used to measure the low-carbon economy total factor productivity growth in 2004-2016. Based on the calculation of low-carbon economy total factor productivity growth of each province, the DID model was used to test the carbon emission trading scheme for low-carbon economy total factor productivity growth. Through the analysis of the results of the model test, it was concluded that the carbon emission trading scheme played a positive role in the development of a low-carbon economy. The main reason was that the carbon emission trading scheme improved the technical efficiency, thus promoting the growth of the low-carbon economy. However, the implementation of the carbon emission trading scheme in China was still in its infancy, and its role in the development of a low-carbon economy was relatively small. A time trend test of the policy effect found that the policy effect exhibited an inverted "U"-type structure, which showed that the policy effect had a certain lag and was weakened with the passage of time. Finally, it was proposed that the development of the low-carbon economy should be promoted from the aspects of expanding the scope of carbon emission trading, regulating government behavior, and integrating multiple emission reduction methods.
引文
[1] SOYTAS U,SARI R,EWING B T.Energy Consumption,Income,and Carbon Emissions in the United States [J].Ecological Economics,2007,62(3/4):482-489.
[2] 张丽峰.我国经济增长、 能源消费对碳排放影响分析 [J].工业技术经济,2011,30(1):123-129.
[3] FANKHAUSER S.A Practitioner’s Guide to a Low-Carbon Economy:Lessons from the UK [J].Climate Policy,2013,13(3):345-362.
[4] XUE J,WATANABE S.Low Carbon Economy in Japan [J].Handbook of Clean Energy Systems,2015(6):123-134.
[5] 杨颖.四川省低碳经济发展效率评价 [J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(6):52-56.
[6] 周泽炯,胡建辉.基于Super-SBM模型的低碳经济发展绩效评价研究 [J].资源科学,2013,35(12):2457-2466.
[7] 雷明,虞晓雯.我国低碳经济增长的测度和动态作用机制——基于非期望DEA和面板VAR模型的分析 [J].经济科学,2015(2):44-57.
[8] 刘翔,陈晓红.我国低碳经济发展效率的动态变化及碳减排潜力分析 [J].系统工程,2017,35(5):92-100.
[9] 谢志祥,秦耀辰,沈威.中国低碳经济发展绩效评价及影响因素 [J].经济地理,2017,37(3):1-9.
[10] 马大来,杨光明.金融发展、 技术进步与中国低碳经济增长效率——基于空间面板数据模型的实证研究 [J].重庆大学学报(社会科学版),2018,24(3):13-28.
[11] 郑宝华,刘东皇.我国区域间低碳经济效率影响因素分析 [J].统计与决策,2017(20):144-146.
[12] DALES J H.Pollution,Property & Prices:an Essay in Policy-Making and Economics [J].Edward Elgar Pub,1968(4):21-33.
[13] KLAASSEN G,NENTJES A,SMITH M.Testing the Theory of Emissions Trading:Experimental Evidence on Alternative Mechanisms for Global Carbon Trading [J].Ecological Economics,2005,53(1):47-58.
[14] F?RE R,GROSSKOPF S,PASURKA C A J.Tradable Permits and Unrealized Gains from Trade [J].Energy Economics,2013,40:416-424.
[15] 崔连标,范英,朱磊,等.碳排放交易对实现我国“十二五”减排目标的成本节约效应研究 [J].中国管理科学,2013,21(1):37-46.
[16] 汤铃,武佳倩,戴伟,等.碳交易机制对中国经济与环境的影响 [J].系统工程学报,2014,29(5):701-712.
[17] 沈洪涛,黄楠,刘浪.碳排放权交易的微观效果及机制研究 [J].厦门大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2017(1):13-22.
[18] 黄志成,赵林度,王敏.碳排放交易制度差异下的国际供应链生产计划问题 [J].中国管理科学,2017,25(11):58-65.
[19] 雷明,虞晓雯.地方财政支出、 环境规制与我国低碳经济转型 [J].经济科学,2013(5):47-61.
[20] FUKUYAMA H,WEBER W L.A Directional Slacks-Based Measure of Technical Inefficiency [J].Socio-Economic Planning Sciences,2009,43(4):274-287.
[21] 张军,吴桂英,张吉鹏.中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952-2000 [J].经济研究,2004,39(10):35-44.
[22] KING R G,LEVINE R.Capital Fundamentalism,Economic Development,and Economic Growth [J].Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,1994,40:259-292.
[23] EASTERLY W,KREMER M,PRITCHETT L,et al.Good Policy or Good Luck?[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1993,32(3):459-483.
[24] ASHENFELTER O,CARD D.Using the Longitudinal Structure of Earnings to Estimate the Effect of Training Programs [J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,1985,67(4):648-660.
[25] JEFFERSON G H,TANAKA S,YIN W.Environmental Regulation and Industrial Performance:Evidence from Unexpected Externalities in China [M].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2013.
[26] 周黎安,陈烨.中国农村税费改革的政策效果:基于双重差分模型的估计 [J].经济研究,2005,40(8):44-53.
[27] 闫文娟,郭树龙.中国二氧化硫排污权交易会减弱污染排放强度吗——基于双倍差分法的经验研究 [J].上海经济研究,2012,24(6):76-83.
[28] 肖浩,孔爱国.融资融券对股价特质性波动的影响机理研究:基于双重差分模型的检验 [J].管理世界,2014(8):30-43,187-188.
[29] 刘瑞明,赵仁杰.国家高新区推动了地区经济发展吗——基于双重差分方法的验证 [J].管理世界,2015(8):30-38.
[2] 张丽峰.我国经济增长、 能源消费对碳排放影响分析 [J].工业技术经济,2011,30(1):123-129.
[3] FANKHAUSER S.A Practitioner’s Guide to a Low-Carbon Economy:Lessons from the UK [J].Climate Policy,2013,13(3):345-362.
[4] XUE J,WATANABE S.Low Carbon Economy in Japan [J].Handbook of Clean Energy Systems,2015(6):123-134.
[5] 杨颖.四川省低碳经济发展效率评价 [J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(6):52-56.
[6] 周泽炯,胡建辉.基于Super-SBM模型的低碳经济发展绩效评价研究 [J].资源科学,2013,35(12):2457-2466.
[7] 雷明,虞晓雯.我国低碳经济增长的测度和动态作用机制——基于非期望DEA和面板VAR模型的分析 [J].经济科学,2015(2):44-57.
[8] 刘翔,陈晓红.我国低碳经济发展效率的动态变化及碳减排潜力分析 [J].系统工程,2017,35(5):92-100.
[9] 谢志祥,秦耀辰,沈威.中国低碳经济发展绩效评价及影响因素 [J].经济地理,2017,37(3):1-9.
[10] 马大来,杨光明.金融发展、 技术进步与中国低碳经济增长效率——基于空间面板数据模型的实证研究 [J].重庆大学学报(社会科学版),2018,24(3):13-28.
[11] 郑宝华,刘东皇.我国区域间低碳经济效率影响因素分析 [J].统计与决策,2017(20):144-146.
[12] DALES J H.Pollution,Property & Prices:an Essay in Policy-Making and Economics [J].Edward Elgar Pub,1968(4):21-33.
[13] KLAASSEN G,NENTJES A,SMITH M.Testing the Theory of Emissions Trading:Experimental Evidence on Alternative Mechanisms for Global Carbon Trading [J].Ecological Economics,2005,53(1):47-58.
[14] F?RE R,GROSSKOPF S,PASURKA C A J.Tradable Permits and Unrealized Gains from Trade [J].Energy Economics,2013,40:416-424.
[15] 崔连标,范英,朱磊,等.碳排放交易对实现我国“十二五”减排目标的成本节约效应研究 [J].中国管理科学,2013,21(1):37-46.
[16] 汤铃,武佳倩,戴伟,等.碳交易机制对中国经济与环境的影响 [J].系统工程学报,2014,29(5):701-712.
[17] 沈洪涛,黄楠,刘浪.碳排放权交易的微观效果及机制研究 [J].厦门大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2017(1):13-22.
[18] 黄志成,赵林度,王敏.碳排放交易制度差异下的国际供应链生产计划问题 [J].中国管理科学,2017,25(11):58-65.
[19] 雷明,虞晓雯.地方财政支出、 环境规制与我国低碳经济转型 [J].经济科学,2013(5):47-61.
[20] FUKUYAMA H,WEBER W L.A Directional Slacks-Based Measure of Technical Inefficiency [J].Socio-Economic Planning Sciences,2009,43(4):274-287.
[21] 张军,吴桂英,张吉鹏.中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952-2000 [J].经济研究,2004,39(10):35-44.
[22] KING R G,LEVINE R.Capital Fundamentalism,Economic Development,and Economic Growth [J].Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,1994,40:259-292.
[23] EASTERLY W,KREMER M,PRITCHETT L,et al.Good Policy or Good Luck?[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1993,32(3):459-483.
[24] ASHENFELTER O,CARD D.Using the Longitudinal Structure of Earnings to Estimate the Effect of Training Programs [J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,1985,67(4):648-660.
[25] JEFFERSON G H,TANAKA S,YIN W.Environmental Regulation and Industrial Performance:Evidence from Unexpected Externalities in China [M].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2013.
[26] 周黎安,陈烨.中国农村税费改革的政策效果:基于双重差分模型的估计 [J].经济研究,2005,40(8):44-53.
[27] 闫文娟,郭树龙.中国二氧化硫排污权交易会减弱污染排放强度吗——基于双倍差分法的经验研究 [J].上海经济研究,2012,24(6):76-83.
[28] 肖浩,孔爱国.融资融券对股价特质性波动的影响机理研究:基于双重差分模型的检验 [J].管理世界,2014(8):30-43,187-188.
[29] 刘瑞明,赵仁杰.国家高新区推动了地区经济发展吗——基于双重差分方法的验证 [J].管理世界,2015(8):30-38.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |