电器电子产品废弃量估算方法再评估
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摘要
论文对比分析了市场供给A模型和保有量系数法在中国电器电子产品废弃量估算中的差异,并结合国内电子废物正规处理厂的抽样数据,应用Weibull模型估计了产品的使用寿命分布。研究发现:(1)两种方法对电视机、洗衣机和冰箱的废弃量估算结果接近;(2)保有量系数法难以获取机构用户废弃量数据,会导致对空调这类机构保有量大的产品的预测值偏低;(3)市场供给A模型易受水货、山寨等灰色市场影响,对电脑、手机等市场活跃产品的预测值显著偏低。基于Weibull分布的市场供给A模型,2014年、2015年正规处理厂中电视机的回收拆解率接近200%,洗衣机、电脑、电冰箱的回收拆解率在20%左右,空调的回收拆解率仅为5%。结论建议中国应针对自身电器电子产品市场的特点,合理建构废弃量估算方法体系,为处理设施规划、回收体系评价和生产者责任实施提供科学依据。
This article compares the volume of waste electrical and electronic equipment estimated by market-supply A model and market penetration model. We use Weibull model to characterize the expected life span of products based on the sample data from formal e-waste recycling plants. The result shows:(1) The estimations of the two models are close with each other regarding three kinds of large household consumer electronics, such as TV sets, washing machines, and refrigerators.(2) It is difficult for market penetration model to obtain institutional user waste data, which will lead to low predictive value of products with large ownership of such institutions as air conditioners.(3) Market-supply A model is susceptible to the influence of gray market such as aquatic goods and shanzhai, and its forecast value for active products such as computers and mobile phones is significantly lower. With market-supply A model based on Weibull distribution, In 2014 and 2015, the recycling rate of TV sets in formal processing plants was close to 200%, washing machines, computers and refrigerators were around 20%, and air conditioners was only 5%. Based on the conclusions, we suggested that China should reasonably construct a waste estimation method system according to the characteristics of its own electrical and electronic products market, so as to provide a scientific basis for the planning of treatment facilities, the evaluation of recycling system and the implementation of producer responsibility.
This article compares the volume of waste electrical and electronic equipment estimated by market-supply A model and market penetration model. We use Weibull model to characterize the expected life span of products based on the sample data from formal e-waste recycling plants. The result shows:(1) The estimations of the two models are close with each other regarding three kinds of large household consumer electronics, such as TV sets, washing machines, and refrigerators.(2) It is difficult for market penetration model to obtain institutional user waste data, which will lead to low predictive value of products with large ownership of such institutions as air conditioners.(3) Market-supply A model is susceptible to the influence of gray market such as aquatic goods and shanzhai, and its forecast value for active products such as computers and mobile phones is significantly lower. With market-supply A model based on Weibull distribution, In 2014 and 2015, the recycling rate of TV sets in formal processing plants was close to 200%, washing machines, computers and refrigerators were around 20%, and air conditioners was only 5%. Based on the conclusions, we suggested that China should reasonably construct a waste estimation method system according to the characteristics of its own electrical and electronic products market, so as to provide a scientific basis for the planning of treatment facilities, the evaluation of recycling system and the implementation of producer responsibility.
引文
[1]Zeng X L, Duan H B, Wang F, et al. Examining environmental management of e-waste:China’s experience and lessons[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2017, 72:1076-1082.
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[3]李博，杨建新，吕彬，等.废弃电器电子产品产生量估算——方法综述与选择策略[J].生态学报，2015(24):7965-7973.
[4]高颖楠，徐鹤，卢现军.基于市场供给A模型的手机废弃量预测研究[C]//中国环境科学学会. 2010年学术年会论文集.上海：中国环境科学学会，2010.
[5]梁晓辉，李光明，黄菊文，等.上海市电子废弃物产生量预测与回收网络建立[J].环境科学学报，2010(5):1115-1120.
[6]刘志峰，薛雅琼，黄海鸿.我国大陆地区电器电子产品报废量预测研究[J].环境科学学报，2016(5):1875-1882.
[7]王喜.基于GIS的上海市电子废弃物回收网络体系研究[D].上海：华东师范大学，2007.
[8]李博，杨建新，吕彬，等.中国废旧手机产生量时空分布研究[J].环境科学学报，2015(12):4095-4101.
[9]Yu J L, Williams E, Ju M T. Analysis of material and energy consumption of mobile phones in China[J]. Energy Policy,2010, 38(8):4135-4141.
[10]何逸林，廖小红，田晖.我国家用电器理论报废量测算方法研究及结果分析[J].家电科技，2010(10):76-77.
[11]No. 2017/699. Commission implementing regulation(EU)[S].European Commission.
[12]Forti V, BaldéK, Kuehr R. E-waste statistics:Guidelines on classifications, reporting and indicators[J]. Second Edition. Bonn:United Nations University, 2018.
[13]BaldéC P, Forti V, Gray V, et al. The Global E-waste Monitor2017:Quantities, flows, and resources[M]. Bonn:United Nations University, International Telecommunication Union, International Solid Waste Association, 2017:6-7.
[14]He P W, Wang C, Zuo L S. The present and future availability of high-tech minerals in waste mobile phones:Evidence from China[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2018, 192:940-949.
[15]Habuer, Nakatani J, Moriguchi Y. Time-series product and substance flow analyses of end-of-life electrical and electronic equipment in China[J]. Waste Management, 2014, 34(2):489-497.
[16]民主与法制时报.电子拆解行业的困惑与坚守[EB/OL].(2015-07-31). http://www.mzyfz.com/cms/benwangzhuanfang/x i n w e n z h o n g x i n/z u i x i n b a o d a o/h t m l/1 0 4 0/2 0 1 5-0 7-3 1/content-1139781.html.
[17]财政部，生态环境部，国家发展改革委，等.废弃电器电子产品处理基金征收使用管理办法[EB/OL].(2012-05-21). http://www.gov.cn/gzdt/2012-05/30/content_2149195.htm.
[2]童昕，蔡一帆，颜琳.基于“家电以旧换新”回收数据评估电子废物产生量估算方法[J].生态经济，2013(7):38-42.
[3]李博，杨建新，吕彬，等.废弃电器电子产品产生量估算——方法综述与选择策略[J].生态学报，2015(24):7965-7973.
[4]高颖楠，徐鹤，卢现军.基于市场供给A模型的手机废弃量预测研究[C]//中国环境科学学会. 2010年学术年会论文集.上海：中国环境科学学会，2010.
[5]梁晓辉，李光明，黄菊文，等.上海市电子废弃物产生量预测与回收网络建立[J].环境科学学报，2010(5):1115-1120.
[6]刘志峰，薛雅琼，黄海鸿.我国大陆地区电器电子产品报废量预测研究[J].环境科学学报，2016(5):1875-1882.
[7]王喜.基于GIS的上海市电子废弃物回收网络体系研究[D].上海：华东师范大学，2007.
[8]李博，杨建新，吕彬，等.中国废旧手机产生量时空分布研究[J].环境科学学报，2015(12):4095-4101.
[9]Yu J L, Williams E, Ju M T. Analysis of material and energy consumption of mobile phones in China[J]. Energy Policy,2010, 38(8):4135-4141.
[10]何逸林，廖小红，田晖.我国家用电器理论报废量测算方法研究及结果分析[J].家电科技，2010(10):76-77.
[11]No. 2017/699. Commission implementing regulation(EU)[S].European Commission.
[12]Forti V, BaldéK, Kuehr R. E-waste statistics:Guidelines on classifications, reporting and indicators[J]. Second Edition. Bonn:United Nations University, 2018.
[13]BaldéC P, Forti V, Gray V, et al. The Global E-waste Monitor2017:Quantities, flows, and resources[M]. Bonn:United Nations University, International Telecommunication Union, International Solid Waste Association, 2017:6-7.
[14]He P W, Wang C, Zuo L S. The present and future availability of high-tech minerals in waste mobile phones:Evidence from China[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2018, 192:940-949.
[15]Habuer, Nakatani J, Moriguchi Y. Time-series product and substance flow analyses of end-of-life electrical and electronic equipment in China[J]. Waste Management, 2014, 34(2):489-497.
[16]民主与法制时报.电子拆解行业的困惑与坚守[EB/OL].(2015-07-31). http://www.mzyfz.com/cms/benwangzhuanfang/x i n w e n z h o n g x i n/z u i x i n b a o d a o/h t m l/1 0 4 0/2 0 1 5-0 7-3 1/content-1139781.html.
[17]财政部，生态环境部，国家发展改革委，等.废弃电器电子产品处理基金征收使用管理办法[EB/OL].(2012-05-21). http://www.gov.cn/gzdt/2012-05/30/content_2149195.htm.
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