基于改进生态足迹因子的长株潭地区可持续发展
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摘要
可持续发展的标志是资源的永续利用和良好的生态环境。应用改进的生态足迹因子对长株潭地区2002—2014年的生态足迹及其可持续发展能力进行了定量评价,并构建灰色GM(1,1)模型进行了预测。结果表明:长株潭地区生态足迹由期初的2 120.50万hm~2逐年增加到期末的3 181.29万hm~2,同期可利用生态承载力由488.02万hm~2逐年增加到493.15万hm~2,生态赤字由-1 632.48万hm~2逐年持续增加到-2 688.14万hm~2;2002—2014年长株潭地区的万元GDP生态足迹和生态适度人口呈现逐渐下降的趋势,生态足迹利用效率呈现逐渐快速上升的趋势,生态可持续指数呈前期下降,后期平稳波动趋势;同时根据预测得到2026年人均生态赤字将上升到-2.340 6 hm~2。呼吁当地政府积极采取措施改善生态环境,以实现经济社会的可持续发展。
The sign of sustainable development is the sustainable use of resources and a good ecological environment. In the present study, the ecological footprint and ecological capacity of Chang-Zhu-Tan City are calculated and analyzed from 2002 to 2014 by use of the improved ecological footprint factor, as well as its developed trend is predicted by the grey model. The results show that during 2002—2014, its ecological footprint increased from 2.120 50×10~7 hm~2 to 3.181 29×10~7 hm~2, the ecological carrying capacity gradually decreased from 4.880 2×10~6 hm~2 to 4.931 5×10~6 hm~2, while the ecological deficit per capita increased from-1.632 48×10~7 hm~2 in 2002 to-2.688 14×10~7 hm~2 in 2014; from 2002 to 2014, the ecological footprint and ecological population of 10,000-yuan in the Changzhutan region showed a gradual decline, and the ecological footprint utilization efficiency showed a gradual and rapid trend; the ecological sustainability index showed a decline during the early stages but stable fluctuations during the later stages, the per capita ecological deficit has been predicted to be risen up to-2.340 6 hm~2 in 2026. Urgent calls on the local government actively are to take measures to improve the ecological environment in order to achieve sustainable economic and social development.
The sign of sustainable development is the sustainable use of resources and a good ecological environment. In the present study, the ecological footprint and ecological capacity of Chang-Zhu-Tan City are calculated and analyzed from 2002 to 2014 by use of the improved ecological footprint factor, as well as its developed trend is predicted by the grey model. The results show that during 2002—2014, its ecological footprint increased from 2.120 50×10~7 hm~2 to 3.181 29×10~7 hm~2, the ecological carrying capacity gradually decreased from 4.880 2×10~6 hm~2 to 4.931 5×10~6 hm~2, while the ecological deficit per capita increased from-1.632 48×10~7 hm~2 in 2002 to-2.688 14×10~7 hm~2 in 2014; from 2002 to 2014, the ecological footprint and ecological population of 10,000-yuan in the Changzhutan region showed a gradual decline, and the ecological footprint utilization efficiency showed a gradual and rapid trend; the ecological sustainability index showed a decline during the early stages but stable fluctuations during the later stages, the per capita ecological deficit has been predicted to be risen up to-2.340 6 hm~2 in 2026. Urgent calls on the local government actively are to take measures to improve the ecological environment in order to achieve sustainable economic and social development.
引文
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[3] Moore J,Kissinger M,Rees W E.An urban metabolism and ecological footprint assessment of Metro Vancouver[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2013,124(2):51-61.
[4] Duro J A,Teixidó-Figueras J.,Ecological footprint inequality across countries:The role of environment intensity,income and interaction effects[J].Ecological Economics,2013,93(3):34-41.
[5] Salvo G,Simas M S,Pacca S A,et al.Estimating the human appropriation of land in Brazil by means of an Input-Output Economic Model and Ecological Footprint analysis[J].Ecological Indicators,2015,53:78-94.
[6] 张志强,徐中民,程国栋.生态足迹的概念及计算模型[J].生态经济,2000(10):8-10.
[7] 刘宇辉,彭希哲.中国历年生态足迹计算与发展可持续性评估[J].生态学报,2004,24(10):2257-2262.
[8] 黄宝荣,崔书红,李颖明.中国2000—2010年生态足迹变化特征及影响因素[J].环境科学,2016,37(2):420-426.
[9] 宋豫秦,王群超.基于能值生态足迹的浙江省可持续发展分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2011,20(11):1285-1290.
[10] 宫继萍,潘竟虎,石培基.基于生态足迹和灰色关联度的甘肃省可持续发展研究[J].水土保持研究,2011,18(2):198-201.
[11] 王群超.基于能值生态足迹的浙江省可持续发展分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2011,20(11):1285-1290.
[12] 高标,房骄,何欢.吉林省生态足迹动态变化与可持续发展状况评价分析[J].农业现代化研究,2013,34(1):95-99.
[13] 董朝阳,伍磊,童亿勤.生态足迹视角下的宁波市水资源可持续利用评价[J].农业现代化研究,2014,35(3):349-352.
[14] 张佳琦,段玉山,伍燕南.基于生态足迹的苏州市可持续发展动态研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(2):177-184.
[15] 胡美娟,周年兴,李在军,等.南京市三维生态足迹测算及驱动因子[J].地理与地理信息科学,2015,31(1):91-95.
[16] 秦伟明,祝安娜,陈慧,等.基于生态足迹模型的新晃县可持续发展能力评价[J].环境与可持续发展,2015,40(2):116-121.
[17] 刘某承,李文华,谢高地.基于净初级生产力的中国生态足迹产量因子测算[J].生态学杂志,2010,29(3):592-597.
[18] 刘某承,李文华.基于净初级生产力的中国各地生态足迹均衡因子测算[J].生态与农村环境学报,2010,26(5):401-406.
[19] 郭荣中,申海建.基于生态足迹的株洲市可持续发展研究[J].湖北农业科学,2017,56(20):3955-3959.
[20] 程建权.城市系统工程[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,1999.
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