我国10～30天延伸期预报技术进展与发展对策
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摘要
10～30天延伸期预报技术是世界性难题,但是延伸期时效预报在我国气象防灾减灾决策服务和重大活动气象保障服务中起着非常重要的作用。近10年来,我国在10～30天延伸期预报技术领域进行了有益的探索,并取得了一定的进展。在总结延伸期预报理论和预报技术的基础上,系统介绍我国延伸期预报业务技术的进展;并结合数值模式发展趋势和未来延伸期预报的需求,分析我国延伸期预报业务中存在的具体技术问题和挑战,最后提出未来延伸期预报业务的发展思路。
The 10～30 days extended-range forecasting technology is a worldwide problem,but it plays a very important role in meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation decision-making services and meteorological support services for major activities in China. In the past decade,China has carried out beneficial explorations in 10-30 days extended-range forecasting theory and technology and made some progress. Based on the introduction of the theory and technology of extended-range forecast,this paper systematically introduced the technical progress of China's extended-range forecasting service;combining with the development trend of numerical model and the demand of future extended-range forecast,here we analyzed the specific technical problems and challenges in China's extended-range forecast service,and finally proposed the development ideas of future extended-range forecast service.
The 10～30 days extended-range forecasting technology is a worldwide problem,but it plays a very important role in meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation decision-making services and meteorological support services for major activities in China. In the past decade,China has carried out beneficial explorations in 10-30 days extended-range forecasting theory and technology and made some progress. Based on the introduction of the theory and technology of extended-range forecast,this paper systematically introduced the technical progress of China's extended-range forecasting service;combining with the development trend of numerical model and the demand of future extended-range forecast,here we analyzed the specific technical problems and challenges in China's extended-range forecast service,and finally proposed the development ideas of future extended-range forecast service.
引文
[1] Zhai Panmao,Ni Yunqi,Chen Yang. Mechanism and forecasting method of persistent extreme weather events:Review and prospect[J]. Advances in Earth Science,2013,28(11):1 177-1 188.[翟盘茂,倪允琪,陈阳.我国持续性重大天气异常成因与预报方法研究回顾与未来展望[J].地球科学进展,2013,28(11):1 177-1 188.]
[2] Lorenz E N. Deterministic nonperiodic flow[J]. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,1963,20(2):130-141.
[3] Chou Jifan. Long Term Numerical Forecasts[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press,1986:329.[丑纪范.长期数值天气预报[M].北京:气象出版社,1986:329.]
[4] Chou Jifan. New Developments in Atmospheric Dynamics[M].Lanzhou:Lanzhou University Press,1990:214.[丑纪范.大气动力学的新进展[M].兰州:兰州大学出版社,1990:214.]
[5] Li Jianping,Ding Ruiqiang. Temporal spatial distributions of predictability limit of short term climate[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2008,32(4):975-986.[李建平,丁瑞强.短期气候可预报期限的时空分布[J].大气科学,2008,32(4):975-986.]
[6] Wang Taiwei,Chen Dehui. A brief overview of ensemble forecasts[J]. Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2007,28(1):6-12.[王太微,陈德辉.数值预报发展新方向—集合数值预报[J].气象研究与应用,2007,28(1):6-12.]
[7] Chou Jifan. Nonlinear and Complexity of Atmospheric Sciences[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2002.[丑纪范.大气科学中的非线性与复杂性[M].北京:气象出版社,2002.]
[8] Delsole T. Predictability and information theory. Part I—Measures of predictability[J]. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences,2004,61:2 425-2 440.
[9] Chou Jifan,Xie Zhihui,Wang Shigong. An alternative approach to the establishment of a 6-15 day numerical weather prediction service system[J]. Military Meteorology and Hydrology,2006,(3):4-9.[丑纪范,谢志辉,王式功.建立6-15天数值天气预报业务系统的另类途径[J].军事气象水文,2006,(3):4-9.]
[10] Mu Mu,Li Jianping,Chou Jifan,et al. Theoretical research on the predictability of climate system[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research,2002,7(2):227-235.[穆穆,李建平,丑纪范,等.气候系统可预报性理论研究[J].气候与环境研究,2002,7(2):227-235.]
[11] Baldwin M P,Stephenson D B,Thompson D W J,et al.Stratospheric memory and skill of extended-range weather forecasts[J]. Science,2003,301(5 633):636-640.
[12] Reichler T J,Roads J O. The role of boundary and initial conditions for dynamical seasonal predictability[J]. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics,2003,10(3):211-232.
[13] Hoskins B. The potential for skill across the range of the seamless weather-climate prediction problem:A stimulus for our science[J]. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,2013,139(672):573-584.
[14] Tao Shiyan,Ding Yihui,Zhou Xiaoping. Study of heavy rain and severe convective weather[J]. Scientia Atmospherica Sinica,1979,(3):227-238.[陶诗言,丁一汇,周晓平.暴雨和强对流天气的研究[J].大气科学,1979,(3):227-238.]
[15] Browning K A. Nowcasting[M]. London:Academic Press,1982:256.
[16] Chou Jifan. Predictability of weather and climate[J]. Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology,2011,1(2):11-14.[丑纪范.天气和气候的可预报性[J].气象科技进展,2011,1(2):11-14.]
[17] Chao Jiping,Ji Jinjun,He Jiaye,et al. The physical basis of a long-term numerical weather prediction method[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin,1977,(2):162-172.[巢纪平,季劲钧,何家骅,等.一种长期数值天气预报方法的物理基础[J].中国科学,1977,(2):162-172.]
[18] Chao Jiping,Ji Jinjun,Zhu Zhihui,et al. Filtering method for long-term numerical weather prediction[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin,1979,(1):75-84.[巢纪平,季劲钧,朱志辉,等.长期数值天气预报的滤波方法[J].中国科学,1979,(1):75-84.]
[19] Li Zechun,Chen Dehui. The development and application of the operational ensemble prediction system at National Meteorological Center[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2002,13(1):1-15.[李泽椿,陈德辉.国家气象中心集合数值预报业务系统的发展及应用[J].应用气象学报,2002,13(1):1-15.]
[20] Jin Ronghua,Ma Jie,Bi Baogui. Research advancement and operation status about the extended range forecast from 10 to 30days[J]. Desert and Oasis Meteorology,2010,4(2):1-5.[金荣花,马杰,毕宝贵. 10-30天延伸期预报研究进展和业务现状[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2010,4(2):1-5.]
[21] Wang Yafei,Li Yan,Li Pingyun,et al. The large scale circulation of the snow disaster in south China in the beginning of 2008[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2008,66(5):826-835.[王亚非,李琰,李萍云,等. 2008年初中国南方雪灾大尺度环流背景分析[J].气象学报,2008,66(5):826-835.]
[22] Li Yan,Wang Shigong,Jin Ronghua,et al. Abnormal characteristics of blocking high during durative low temperature,snowfall and freezing weather in Southern China[J]. Plateau Meteorology,2012,31(1):94-101.[李艳,王式功,金荣花,等.我国南方低温雨雪冰冻灾害期间阻塞高压异常特征分析[J].高原气象,2012,31(1):94-101.]
[23] Zhang C,Gottschalck J,Maloney E D,et al. Cracking the MJO nut[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013,40(6):1 223-1 230.
[24] Zhang L,Wang B Z,Zeng Q C. Impact of the Madden-Julian oscillation on summer rainfall in Southeast China[J]. Journal of Climate,2009,22(2):201-216.
[25] Yuan Wei,Yang Haijun. On the Modulation of MJO to the precipitation of southeast China in winter season[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,2010,46(2):207-214.[袁为,杨海军. Madden-Julian振荡对中国东南部冬季降水的调制[J].北京大学学报:自然科学版,2010,46(2):207-214.]
[26] Jeong J H,Ho C H,Kim B M,et al. Influence of the MaddenJulian Oscillation on wintertime surface air temperature and cold surges in East Asia[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2005,110(D11). DOI:10.1029/2004JD005408.
[27] Chen Xiong,Li Chongyin,Tan Yanke,et al. The environmental characteristics of strong/weak MJO activity over the tropical western Pacific in winter[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2015,31(1):1-10.[陈雄,李崇银,谭言科,等.冬季热带西太平洋MJO活动强弱年的环境场特征[J].热带气象学报,2015,31(1):1-10.]
[28] Saha S,Moorthi S,Wu X,et al. The NCEP climate forecast system version 2[J]. Journal of Climate,2014,27(6):2 185-2 208.
[29] Cui B,Toth Z,Zhu Y,et al. Bias correction for global ensemble forecast[J]. Weather and Forecasting,2012,27:396-410.
[30] Cui B,Zhu Y,Toth Z,et al. Development of Statistical Postprocessor for NAEFS[J]. 2015.[2018-12-20]. https://www.emc. ncep. noaa. gov/gmb/yzhu/gif/pub/manuscripts_downscaling_CONUS_20110930.pdf.
[31] Sloughter J M L,Raftery A E,Gneiting T,et al. Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting using Bayesian model averaging[J]. Monthly Weather Review,2007,135(9):3 209-3 220.
[32] Yuan H,Gao X,Mullen S L,et al. Calibration of probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts with an artificial neural network[J]. Weather Forecasting,2007,22:1 287-1 303.
[33] Glahn M R,Peroutka J,Wiedenfeld J L,et al. MOS uncertainty estimates in an ensemble framework[J]. Monthly Weather Review,2009,137:246-268.
[34] Zhu Y,Luo Y. Precipitation calibration based on the frequencymatching method[J]. Weather Forecasting,2015,30(5):1 109-1 124.
[35] Guan H,Cui B,Zhu Y. Improvement of statistical postprocessing using GEFS reforecast information[J]. Weather Forecasting,2015,30(4):841-854.
[36] Xu Yiming. Suggestions to deal with the frequent occurrence of extreme weather events in the context of global warming[J].Science and Technology Industry of China,2008,(3):24-25.[徐一鸣.应对全球气候变暖背景下极端天气事件频发的建议[J].中国科技产业,2008,(3):24-25.]
[37] Zhai Panmao,Liu Jing. Extreme weather/climate events and disaster prevention and mitigation under global warming background[J]. Chinese Engineering Science,2012,14(9):55-63.[翟盘茂,刘静.气候变暖背景下的极端天气气候事件与防灾减灾[J].中国工程科学,2012,14(9):55-63.]
[38] Ma Jie,Jin Ronghua,Zong Zhiping,et al. Analysis of predictability in extended range forecast[J]. Desert and Oasis Meteorology,2019,13(3):137-143.[马杰,金荣花,宗志平,等.延伸期预报中的可预报性浅析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2019,13(3):137-143.]
[2] Lorenz E N. Deterministic nonperiodic flow[J]. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,1963,20(2):130-141.
[3] Chou Jifan. Long Term Numerical Forecasts[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press,1986:329.[丑纪范.长期数值天气预报[M].北京:气象出版社,1986:329.]
[4] Chou Jifan. New Developments in Atmospheric Dynamics[M].Lanzhou:Lanzhou University Press,1990:214.[丑纪范.大气动力学的新进展[M].兰州:兰州大学出版社,1990:214.]
[5] Li Jianping,Ding Ruiqiang. Temporal spatial distributions of predictability limit of short term climate[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2008,32(4):975-986.[李建平,丁瑞强.短期气候可预报期限的时空分布[J].大气科学,2008,32(4):975-986.]
[6] Wang Taiwei,Chen Dehui. A brief overview of ensemble forecasts[J]. Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2007,28(1):6-12.[王太微,陈德辉.数值预报发展新方向—集合数值预报[J].气象研究与应用,2007,28(1):6-12.]
[7] Chou Jifan. Nonlinear and Complexity of Atmospheric Sciences[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2002.[丑纪范.大气科学中的非线性与复杂性[M].北京:气象出版社,2002.]
[8] Delsole T. Predictability and information theory. Part I—Measures of predictability[J]. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences,2004,61:2 425-2 440.
[9] Chou Jifan,Xie Zhihui,Wang Shigong. An alternative approach to the establishment of a 6-15 day numerical weather prediction service system[J]. Military Meteorology and Hydrology,2006,(3):4-9.[丑纪范,谢志辉,王式功.建立6-15天数值天气预报业务系统的另类途径[J].军事气象水文,2006,(3):4-9.]
[10] Mu Mu,Li Jianping,Chou Jifan,et al. Theoretical research on the predictability of climate system[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research,2002,7(2):227-235.[穆穆,李建平,丑纪范,等.气候系统可预报性理论研究[J].气候与环境研究,2002,7(2):227-235.]
[11] Baldwin M P,Stephenson D B,Thompson D W J,et al.Stratospheric memory and skill of extended-range weather forecasts[J]. Science,2003,301(5 633):636-640.
[12] Reichler T J,Roads J O. The role of boundary and initial conditions for dynamical seasonal predictability[J]. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics,2003,10(3):211-232.
[13] Hoskins B. The potential for skill across the range of the seamless weather-climate prediction problem:A stimulus for our science[J]. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,2013,139(672):573-584.
[14] Tao Shiyan,Ding Yihui,Zhou Xiaoping. Study of heavy rain and severe convective weather[J]. Scientia Atmospherica Sinica,1979,(3):227-238.[陶诗言,丁一汇,周晓平.暴雨和强对流天气的研究[J].大气科学,1979,(3):227-238.]
[15] Browning K A. Nowcasting[M]. London:Academic Press,1982:256.
[16] Chou Jifan. Predictability of weather and climate[J]. Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology,2011,1(2):11-14.[丑纪范.天气和气候的可预报性[J].气象科技进展,2011,1(2):11-14.]
[17] Chao Jiping,Ji Jinjun,He Jiaye,et al. The physical basis of a long-term numerical weather prediction method[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin,1977,(2):162-172.[巢纪平,季劲钧,何家骅,等.一种长期数值天气预报方法的物理基础[J].中国科学,1977,(2):162-172.]
[18] Chao Jiping,Ji Jinjun,Zhu Zhihui,et al. Filtering method for long-term numerical weather prediction[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin,1979,(1):75-84.[巢纪平,季劲钧,朱志辉,等.长期数值天气预报的滤波方法[J].中国科学,1979,(1):75-84.]
[19] Li Zechun,Chen Dehui. The development and application of the operational ensemble prediction system at National Meteorological Center[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2002,13(1):1-15.[李泽椿,陈德辉.国家气象中心集合数值预报业务系统的发展及应用[J].应用气象学报,2002,13(1):1-15.]
[20] Jin Ronghua,Ma Jie,Bi Baogui. Research advancement and operation status about the extended range forecast from 10 to 30days[J]. Desert and Oasis Meteorology,2010,4(2):1-5.[金荣花,马杰,毕宝贵. 10-30天延伸期预报研究进展和业务现状[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2010,4(2):1-5.]
[21] Wang Yafei,Li Yan,Li Pingyun,et al. The large scale circulation of the snow disaster in south China in the beginning of 2008[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2008,66(5):826-835.[王亚非,李琰,李萍云,等. 2008年初中国南方雪灾大尺度环流背景分析[J].气象学报,2008,66(5):826-835.]
[22] Li Yan,Wang Shigong,Jin Ronghua,et al. Abnormal characteristics of blocking high during durative low temperature,snowfall and freezing weather in Southern China[J]. Plateau Meteorology,2012,31(1):94-101.[李艳,王式功,金荣花,等.我国南方低温雨雪冰冻灾害期间阻塞高压异常特征分析[J].高原气象,2012,31(1):94-101.]
[23] Zhang C,Gottschalck J,Maloney E D,et al. Cracking the MJO nut[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013,40(6):1 223-1 230.
[24] Zhang L,Wang B Z,Zeng Q C. Impact of the Madden-Julian oscillation on summer rainfall in Southeast China[J]. Journal of Climate,2009,22(2):201-216.
[25] Yuan Wei,Yang Haijun. On the Modulation of MJO to the precipitation of southeast China in winter season[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,2010,46(2):207-214.[袁为,杨海军. Madden-Julian振荡对中国东南部冬季降水的调制[J].北京大学学报:自然科学版,2010,46(2):207-214.]
[26] Jeong J H,Ho C H,Kim B M,et al. Influence of the MaddenJulian Oscillation on wintertime surface air temperature and cold surges in East Asia[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2005,110(D11). DOI:10.1029/2004JD005408.
[27] Chen Xiong,Li Chongyin,Tan Yanke,et al. The environmental characteristics of strong/weak MJO activity over the tropical western Pacific in winter[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2015,31(1):1-10.[陈雄,李崇银,谭言科,等.冬季热带西太平洋MJO活动强弱年的环境场特征[J].热带气象学报,2015,31(1):1-10.]
[28] Saha S,Moorthi S,Wu X,et al. The NCEP climate forecast system version 2[J]. Journal of Climate,2014,27(6):2 185-2 208.
[29] Cui B,Toth Z,Zhu Y,et al. Bias correction for global ensemble forecast[J]. Weather and Forecasting,2012,27:396-410.
[30] Cui B,Zhu Y,Toth Z,et al. Development of Statistical Postprocessor for NAEFS[J]. 2015.[2018-12-20]. https://www.emc. ncep. noaa. gov/gmb/yzhu/gif/pub/manuscripts_downscaling_CONUS_20110930.pdf.
[31] Sloughter J M L,Raftery A E,Gneiting T,et al. Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting using Bayesian model averaging[J]. Monthly Weather Review,2007,135(9):3 209-3 220.
[32] Yuan H,Gao X,Mullen S L,et al. Calibration of probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts with an artificial neural network[J]. Weather Forecasting,2007,22:1 287-1 303.
[33] Glahn M R,Peroutka J,Wiedenfeld J L,et al. MOS uncertainty estimates in an ensemble framework[J]. Monthly Weather Review,2009,137:246-268.
[34] Zhu Y,Luo Y. Precipitation calibration based on the frequencymatching method[J]. Weather Forecasting,2015,30(5):1 109-1 124.
[35] Guan H,Cui B,Zhu Y. Improvement of statistical postprocessing using GEFS reforecast information[J]. Weather Forecasting,2015,30(4):841-854.
[36] Xu Yiming. Suggestions to deal with the frequent occurrence of extreme weather events in the context of global warming[J].Science and Technology Industry of China,2008,(3):24-25.[徐一鸣.应对全球气候变暖背景下极端天气事件频发的建议[J].中国科技产业,2008,(3):24-25.]
[37] Zhai Panmao,Liu Jing. Extreme weather/climate events and disaster prevention and mitigation under global warming background[J]. Chinese Engineering Science,2012,14(9):55-63.[翟盘茂,刘静.气候变暖背景下的极端天气气候事件与防灾减灾[J].中国工程科学,2012,14(9):55-63.]
[38] Ma Jie,Jin Ronghua,Zong Zhiping,et al. Analysis of predictability in extended range forecast[J]. Desert and Oasis Meteorology,2019,13(3):137-143.[马杰,金荣花,宗志平,等.延伸期预报中的可预报性浅析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2019,13(3):137-143.]
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