北京城市化对一次降雪过程影响的数值模拟研究
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摘要
利用中尺度数值预报(Weather Research and Forecast, WRF)模式,针对2018年3月17日05—17时(北京时)北京地区的一次降雪过程模拟分析了城市化对降雪的主要影响机制。结果表明,城市化使得北京五环以内降雪量减少,降雨量增加,这主要是由于城市化低层增温效应加强了雪的融化过程,产生混合型降水,距离市中心越近越容易发生混合型降水。城市化对降雪的总降水量和降水的时、空分布也存在一定的影响。降水初期,城市化造成的"城市干热岛"效应不利于水汽的水平和垂直输送,不利于云的形成,地面总降水量减小。随着降水过程的发展,部分冰相粒子融化,使近地面水汽增多,"城市热岛效应"的热力抬升作用有利于水汽的垂直输送和云的发展,部分云滴或水汽抬升进入云中,增强冷云过程,使雪和霰粒子含量增大,地面总降水量增加。城市化产生的"城市效应"对低层大气温度和云微物理过程产生影响,而云微物理过程的非绝热过程反过来又影响低层大气温度和大气层结,影响能量和水汽输送,进而对云和地面降水产生影响。
The snowfall that occurred in Beijing from 05:00 to 17:00 BT 17 March 2018 is simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model to study the main influencing mechanism of urbanization on snowfall. Results show that urbanization in the metropolitan area of Beijing can reduce snowfall and increase rainfall, which is largely attributed to the fact that the low-level warming effect of urbanization strengthens the melting process of snow, producing more mixed-phase precipitation. Areas closer to the city center are prone to more mixed-phase precipitation. Urbanization also affects spatial and temporal distribution of total precipitation. At the beginning of the precipitation process, the "urban dry heat island" effect induced by urbanization is not favorable for horizontal and vertical transport of water vapor and the formation of clouds, and thereby the total precipitation would decrease. As the precipitation process develops, some ice phase particles melt and the water vapor in the near-surface layer increases. The thermal uplift effect of the "urban heat island effect" is conducive to vertical transport of water vapor and the development of clouds. Cloud droplets and/or water vapor rise into the clouds, enhancing the cold-cloud process. The cold-cloud process leads to more snow and graupel particles and increases total surface precipitation. The "urban effect" generated by urbanization has impacts on low-level atmospheric temperature and cloud microphysical processes. The non-adiabatic cloud microphysical process in turn affects lower atmospheric temperature and atmospheric stratification as well as the energy and water vapor transport, which subsequently influence cloud and precipitation.
The snowfall that occurred in Beijing from 05:00 to 17:00 BT 17 March 2018 is simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model to study the main influencing mechanism of urbanization on snowfall. Results show that urbanization in the metropolitan area of Beijing can reduce snowfall and increase rainfall, which is largely attributed to the fact that the low-level warming effect of urbanization strengthens the melting process of snow, producing more mixed-phase precipitation. Areas closer to the city center are prone to more mixed-phase precipitation. Urbanization also affects spatial and temporal distribution of total precipitation. At the beginning of the precipitation process, the "urban dry heat island" effect induced by urbanization is not favorable for horizontal and vertical transport of water vapor and the formation of clouds, and thereby the total precipitation would decrease. As the precipitation process develops, some ice phase particles melt and the water vapor in the near-surface layer increases. The thermal uplift effect of the "urban heat island effect" is conducive to vertical transport of water vapor and the development of clouds. Cloud droplets and/or water vapor rise into the clouds, enhancing the cold-cloud process. The cold-cloud process leads to more snow and graupel particles and increases total surface precipitation. The "urban effect" generated by urbanization has impacts on low-level atmospheric temperature and cloud microphysical processes. The non-adiabatic cloud microphysical process in turn affects lower atmospheric temperature and atmospheric stratification as well as the energy and water vapor transport, which subsequently influence cloud and precipitation.
引文
陈卫东,付丹红,苗世光等.2015.北京地区城市环境对云和降水影响的个例数值模拟研究.地球物理学进展,30(3):983-995.Chen W D,Fu D H,Miao S G,et al.2015.Numerical simulation of urban environment impacts on clouds and precipitation in Beijing.Prog Geophys,30(3):983-995 (in Chinese)
范水勇,王洪利,陈敏等.2013.雷达反射率资料的三维变分同化研究.气象学报,71(3):527-537.Fan S Y,Wang H L,Chen M,et al.2013.Study of the data assimilation of radar reflectivity with the WRF 3D-Var.Acta Meteor Sinica,71(3):527-537 (in Chinese)
房文,郑国光.2011.巨核对暖云降水影响的模拟研究.大气科学,35(5):938-944.Fang W,Zheng G G.2011.The effect of GCCN on warm-cloud precipitation.Chinese J Atmos Sci,35(5):938-944 (in Chinese)
季崇萍,刘伟东,轩春怡.2006.北京城市化进程对城市热岛的影响研究.地球物理学报,49(1):69-77.Ji C P,Liu W D,Xuan C Y.2006.Impact of urban growth on the heat island in Beijing.Chinese J Geophys,49(1):69-77 (in Chinese)
江晓燕,张朝林,高华等.2007.城市下垫面反照率变化对北京市热岛过程的影响:个例分析.气象学报,65(2):301-307.Jiang X Y,Zhang C L,Gao H,et al.2007.Impacts of urban albedo change on urban heat island in Beijing:A case study.Acta Meteor Sinica,65(2):301-307 (in Chinese)
李书严,陈洪滨,李伟.2008.城市化对北京地区气候的影响.高原气象,27(5):1102-1110.Li S Y,Chen H B,Li W.2008.The impact of urbanization on city climate of Beijing region.Plateau Meteor,27(5):1102-1110 (in Chinese)
李晓莉,毕宝贵,李泽椿.2005.北京冬季城市边界层结构形成机制的初步数值研究.气象学报,63(6):889-902.Li X L,Bi B G,Li Z C.2005.Simulation study of formation mechanism of winter urban boundary layer structure over Beijing area.Acta Meteor Sinica,63(6):889-902 (in Chinese)
潘旸,谷军霞,宇婧婧等.2018.中国区域高分辨率多源降水观测产品的融合方法试验.气象学报,76(5):755-766.Pan Y,Gu J X,Yu J J,et al.2018.Test of merging methods for multi-source observed precipitation products at high resolution over China.Acta Meteor Sinica,76(5):755-766 (in Chinese)
孙继松,舒文军.2007.北京城市热岛效应对冬夏季降水的影响研究.大气科学,31(2):311-320.Sun J S,Shu W J.2007.The effect of urban heat island on winter and summer precipitation in Beijing region.Chinese J Atmos Sci,31(2):311-320 (in Chinese)
王华,孙继松.2008.下垫面物理过程在一次北京地区强冰雹天气中的作用.气象,34(3):16-21.Wang H,Sun J S.2008.Effects of underlying surface physical process on a severe hail event occurred in Beijing area.Meteor Mon,34(3):16-21 (in Chinese)
王喜全,王自发,齐彦斌等.2008.城市化进程对北京地区冬季降水分布的影响.中国科学 D辑:地球科学,38(11):1438-1443.Wang X Q,Wang Z F,Qi Y B,et al.2009.Effect of urbanization on the winter precipitation distribution in Beijing area.Sci China Ser D:Earth Sci,52(2):250-256
吴息,吴文倩,王彬滨.2016.城市化对近地层风速概率分布及参数的影响.气象学报,74(4):623-632.Wu X,Wu W Q,Wang B B.2016.Effects of urbanization on surface layer wind speed probability distribution and its parameters.Acta Meteor Sinica,74(4):623-632 (in Chinese)
肖辉,银燕.2010.巨凝结核对山西一次降水过程影响的数值模拟//第27届中国气象学会年会大气物理学与大气环境分会场论文集.北京:中国气象学会.Xiao H,Yin Y.2010.Numerical simulation of the impacts of the giant condensation nuclei on once precipitation precess in Shanxi//Annual Meeting of the Chinese Meteorological Society.Beijing:Chinese Meteorological Society (in Chinese)
徐祥德,施晓晖,张胜军等.2005.北京及周边城市群落气溶胶影响域及其相关气候效应.科学通报,50(22):2522-2530.Xu X D,Shi X H,Zhang S J,et al.2006.Aerosol influence domain of Beijing and peripheral city agglomeration and its climatic effect.Chinese Sci Bull,51(16):2016-2026
张亦洲,苗世光,戴永久等.2013.北京夏季晴天边界层特征及城市下垫面对海风影响的数值模拟.地球物理学报,56(8):2558-2573.Zhang Y Z,Miao S G,Dai Y J,et al.2013.Numerical simulation of characteristics of summer clear day boundary layer in Beijing and the impact of urban underlying surface on sea breeze.Chinese J Geophys,56(8):2558-2573 (in Chinese)
张赟程,王晓峰,张蕾等.2017.海风与热岛耦合对上海强对流天气影响的数值模拟.高原气象,36(3):705-717.Zhang Y C,Wang X F,Zhang L,et al.2017.Numerical simulation of the impacts of the sea-breeze and the urban heat island on the severe convective event in Shanghai.Plateau Meteor,36(3):705-717 (in Chinese)
Black A W,Mote T L.2015.Characteristics of winter-precipitation-related transportation fatalities in the United States.Wea,Climate,Soc,7(2):133-145
Bokwa A.2010.Effects of air pollution on precipitation in Kraków (Cracow),Poland in the years 1971-2005.Theor Appl Climatol,101(3-4):289-302
Changnon Jr S A.1968.The La Porte weather anomaly-fact or fiction?Bull Amer Meteor Soc,49(1):4-11
Changnon Jr S A,Semonin R G,Huff F A.1976.A hypothesis for urban rainfall anomalies.J Appl Meteor,15(6):544-560
Changnon Jr S A.1978.Urban effects on severe local storms at St.Louis.J Appl Meteor,17(5):578-586
Changnon Jr S A.1979.Rainfall changes in summer caused by St.Louis.Science,205(4404):402-404
Changnon Jr S A,Shealy R T,Scott R W.1991.Precipitation changes in fall,winter,and spring caused by St.Louis.J Appl Meteor,30(1):126-134
Changnon Jr S A.2004.Urban effects on winter snowfall at Chicago and St.Louis.Bull Ill Geogr Soc,46:3-14
Chen F,Kusaka H,Bornstein R.2011.The integrated WRF/urban modelling system:Development,evaluation,and applications to urban environmental problems.Int J Climatol,31(2):273-288
Cooper W A,Bruintjes B T,Mather G K.1997.Calculations pertaining to hygroscopic seeding with flares.J Appl Meteor,36(11):1449-1469
Dudhia J.1989.Numerical study of convection observed during the winter monsoon experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model.J Atmos Sci,46(20):3077-3107
Givati A,Rosenfeld D.2004.Quantifying precipitation suppression due to air pollution.J Appl Meteor,43(7):1038-1056
Grillo J N,Spar J.1971.Rain-snow mesoclimatology of the New York metropolitan area.J Appl Meteor,10(1):56-61
Han J Y,Baik J J,Lee H.2014.Urban impacts on precipitation.Asia-Pacific J Atmos Sci,50(1):17-30
Inamura T,Izumi T,Matsuyama H.2011.Diagnostic study of the effects of a large city on heavy rainfall as revealed by an ensemble simulation:A case study of central Tokyo,Japan.J Appl Meteor Climatol,50(3):713-728
Johnson B,Shepherd J M.2018.An urban-based climatology of winter precipitation in the northeast United States.Urban Climate,24:205-220
Jones P A,Jiusto J E.1980.Some local climate trends in four cities of New York State.J Appl Meteor,19(2):135-141
Kain J S.2004.The Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization:An update.J Appl Meteor,43(1):170-181
Malevich S B,Klink K.2011.Relationships between snow and the wintertime minneapolis urban heat island.J Appl Meteor Climatol,50(9):1884-1894
Mansell E R,Ziegler C L,Bruning E C.2010.Simulated electrification of a small thunderstorm with two-moment bulk microphysics.J Atmos Sci,67(1):171-194
Maze T H,Agarwal M,Burchett G.2006.Whether weather matters to traffic demand,traffic safety,and traffic operations and flow.Transp Res Rec:J Transp Res Board,1948(1):170-176
Miao S G,Chen F.2008.Formation of horizontal convective rolls in urban areas.Atmos Res,89(3):298-304
Miao S G,Chen F,LeMone M A,et al.2009.An observational and modeling study of characteristics of urban heat island and boundary layer structures in Beijing.J Appl Meteor Climatol,48(3):484-501
Miao S G,Chen F,Li Q C,et al.2011.Impacts of urban processes and urbanization on summer precipitation:A case study of heavy rainfall in Beijing on 1 August 2006.J Appl Meteor Climatol,50(4):806-825
Mlawer E J,Taubman S J,Brown P D,et al.1997.Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres:RRTM,a validated correlated-k model for the longwave.J Geophys Res:Atmos,102(D14):16663-16682
Paulson C A.1970.The mathematical representation of wind speed and temperature profiles in the unstable atmospheric surface layer.J Appl Meteor,9(6):857-861
Pleim J E.2007.A combined local and nonlocal closure model for the atmospheric boundary layer.Part I:Model description and testing.J Appl Meteor Climatol,46(9):1383-1395
Rosenfeld D.2000.Suppression of rain and snow by urban and industrial air pollution.Science,287(5459):1793-1796
Seto K C,Shepherd J M.2009.Global urban land-use trends and climate impacts.Curr Opin Environ Sust,1(1):89-95
Tewari M,Chen F,Wang W.2004.Implementation and verification of the unified NOAH land surface model in the WRF model//Proceedings of the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction.Seattle,WA,US:American Meteorological Society,11-15
Thériault J M,Stewart R E,Henson W.2010.On the dependence of winter precipitation types on temperature,precipitation rate,and associated features.J Appl Meteor Climatol,49(7):1429-1442
Yin Y,Levin Z,Reisin T,et al.2000.Seeding convective clouds with hygroscopic flares:Numerical simulations using a cloud model with detailed microphysics.J Appl Meteor,39(9):1460-1472
Zhong S,Qian Y,Zhao C.2017.Urbanization-induced urban heat island and aerosol effects on climate extremes in the Yangtze River Delta region of China.Atmos Chem Phys,17(8):5439-5457
范水勇,王洪利,陈敏等.2013.雷达反射率资料的三维变分同化研究.气象学报,71(3):527-537.Fan S Y,Wang H L,Chen M,et al.2013.Study of the data assimilation of radar reflectivity with the WRF 3D-Var.Acta Meteor Sinica,71(3):527-537 (in Chinese)
房文,郑国光.2011.巨核对暖云降水影响的模拟研究.大气科学,35(5):938-944.Fang W,Zheng G G.2011.The effect of GCCN on warm-cloud precipitation.Chinese J Atmos Sci,35(5):938-944 (in Chinese)
季崇萍,刘伟东,轩春怡.2006.北京城市化进程对城市热岛的影响研究.地球物理学报,49(1):69-77.Ji C P,Liu W D,Xuan C Y.2006.Impact of urban growth on the heat island in Beijing.Chinese J Geophys,49(1):69-77 (in Chinese)
江晓燕,张朝林,高华等.2007.城市下垫面反照率变化对北京市热岛过程的影响:个例分析.气象学报,65(2):301-307.Jiang X Y,Zhang C L,Gao H,et al.2007.Impacts of urban albedo change on urban heat island in Beijing:A case study.Acta Meteor Sinica,65(2):301-307 (in Chinese)
李书严,陈洪滨,李伟.2008.城市化对北京地区气候的影响.高原气象,27(5):1102-1110.Li S Y,Chen H B,Li W.2008.The impact of urbanization on city climate of Beijing region.Plateau Meteor,27(5):1102-1110 (in Chinese)
李晓莉,毕宝贵,李泽椿.2005.北京冬季城市边界层结构形成机制的初步数值研究.气象学报,63(6):889-902.Li X L,Bi B G,Li Z C.2005.Simulation study of formation mechanism of winter urban boundary layer structure over Beijing area.Acta Meteor Sinica,63(6):889-902 (in Chinese)
潘旸,谷军霞,宇婧婧等.2018.中国区域高分辨率多源降水观测产品的融合方法试验.气象学报,76(5):755-766.Pan Y,Gu J X,Yu J J,et al.2018.Test of merging methods for multi-source observed precipitation products at high resolution over China.Acta Meteor Sinica,76(5):755-766 (in Chinese)
孙继松,舒文军.2007.北京城市热岛效应对冬夏季降水的影响研究.大气科学,31(2):311-320.Sun J S,Shu W J.2007.The effect of urban heat island on winter and summer precipitation in Beijing region.Chinese J Atmos Sci,31(2):311-320 (in Chinese)
王华,孙继松.2008.下垫面物理过程在一次北京地区强冰雹天气中的作用.气象,34(3):16-21.Wang H,Sun J S.2008.Effects of underlying surface physical process on a severe hail event occurred in Beijing area.Meteor Mon,34(3):16-21 (in Chinese)
王喜全,王自发,齐彦斌等.2008.城市化进程对北京地区冬季降水分布的影响.中国科学 D辑:地球科学,38(11):1438-1443.Wang X Q,Wang Z F,Qi Y B,et al.2009.Effect of urbanization on the winter precipitation distribution in Beijing area.Sci China Ser D:Earth Sci,52(2):250-256
吴息,吴文倩,王彬滨.2016.城市化对近地层风速概率分布及参数的影响.气象学报,74(4):623-632.Wu X,Wu W Q,Wang B B.2016.Effects of urbanization on surface layer wind speed probability distribution and its parameters.Acta Meteor Sinica,74(4):623-632 (in Chinese)
肖辉,银燕.2010.巨凝结核对山西一次降水过程影响的数值模拟//第27届中国气象学会年会大气物理学与大气环境分会场论文集.北京:中国气象学会.Xiao H,Yin Y.2010.Numerical simulation of the impacts of the giant condensation nuclei on once precipitation precess in Shanxi//Annual Meeting of the Chinese Meteorological Society.Beijing:Chinese Meteorological Society (in Chinese)
徐祥德,施晓晖,张胜军等.2005.北京及周边城市群落气溶胶影响域及其相关气候效应.科学通报,50(22):2522-2530.Xu X D,Shi X H,Zhang S J,et al.2006.Aerosol influence domain of Beijing and peripheral city agglomeration and its climatic effect.Chinese Sci Bull,51(16):2016-2026
张亦洲,苗世光,戴永久等.2013.北京夏季晴天边界层特征及城市下垫面对海风影响的数值模拟.地球物理学报,56(8):2558-2573.Zhang Y Z,Miao S G,Dai Y J,et al.2013.Numerical simulation of characteristics of summer clear day boundary layer in Beijing and the impact of urban underlying surface on sea breeze.Chinese J Geophys,56(8):2558-2573 (in Chinese)
张赟程,王晓峰,张蕾等.2017.海风与热岛耦合对上海强对流天气影响的数值模拟.高原气象,36(3):705-717.Zhang Y C,Wang X F,Zhang L,et al.2017.Numerical simulation of the impacts of the sea-breeze and the urban heat island on the severe convective event in Shanghai.Plateau Meteor,36(3):705-717 (in Chinese)
Black A W,Mote T L.2015.Characteristics of winter-precipitation-related transportation fatalities in the United States.Wea,Climate,Soc,7(2):133-145
Bokwa A.2010.Effects of air pollution on precipitation in Kraków (Cracow),Poland in the years 1971-2005.Theor Appl Climatol,101(3-4):289-302
Changnon Jr S A.1968.The La Porte weather anomaly-fact or fiction?Bull Amer Meteor Soc,49(1):4-11
Changnon Jr S A,Semonin R G,Huff F A.1976.A hypothesis for urban rainfall anomalies.J Appl Meteor,15(6):544-560
Changnon Jr S A.1978.Urban effects on severe local storms at St.Louis.J Appl Meteor,17(5):578-586
Changnon Jr S A.1979.Rainfall changes in summer caused by St.Louis.Science,205(4404):402-404
Changnon Jr S A,Shealy R T,Scott R W.1991.Precipitation changes in fall,winter,and spring caused by St.Louis.J Appl Meteor,30(1):126-134
Changnon Jr S A.2004.Urban effects on winter snowfall at Chicago and St.Louis.Bull Ill Geogr Soc,46:3-14
Chen F,Kusaka H,Bornstein R.2011.The integrated WRF/urban modelling system:Development,evaluation,and applications to urban environmental problems.Int J Climatol,31(2):273-288
Cooper W A,Bruintjes B T,Mather G K.1997.Calculations pertaining to hygroscopic seeding with flares.J Appl Meteor,36(11):1449-1469
Dudhia J.1989.Numerical study of convection observed during the winter monsoon experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model.J Atmos Sci,46(20):3077-3107
Givati A,Rosenfeld D.2004.Quantifying precipitation suppression due to air pollution.J Appl Meteor,43(7):1038-1056
Grillo J N,Spar J.1971.Rain-snow mesoclimatology of the New York metropolitan area.J Appl Meteor,10(1):56-61
Han J Y,Baik J J,Lee H.2014.Urban impacts on precipitation.Asia-Pacific J Atmos Sci,50(1):17-30
Inamura T,Izumi T,Matsuyama H.2011.Diagnostic study of the effects of a large city on heavy rainfall as revealed by an ensemble simulation:A case study of central Tokyo,Japan.J Appl Meteor Climatol,50(3):713-728
Johnson B,Shepherd J M.2018.An urban-based climatology of winter precipitation in the northeast United States.Urban Climate,24:205-220
Jones P A,Jiusto J E.1980.Some local climate trends in four cities of New York State.J Appl Meteor,19(2):135-141
Kain J S.2004.The Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization:An update.J Appl Meteor,43(1):170-181
Malevich S B,Klink K.2011.Relationships between snow and the wintertime minneapolis urban heat island.J Appl Meteor Climatol,50(9):1884-1894
Mansell E R,Ziegler C L,Bruning E C.2010.Simulated electrification of a small thunderstorm with two-moment bulk microphysics.J Atmos Sci,67(1):171-194
Maze T H,Agarwal M,Burchett G.2006.Whether weather matters to traffic demand,traffic safety,and traffic operations and flow.Transp Res Rec:J Transp Res Board,1948(1):170-176
Miao S G,Chen F.2008.Formation of horizontal convective rolls in urban areas.Atmos Res,89(3):298-304
Miao S G,Chen F,LeMone M A,et al.2009.An observational and modeling study of characteristics of urban heat island and boundary layer structures in Beijing.J Appl Meteor Climatol,48(3):484-501
Miao S G,Chen F,Li Q C,et al.2011.Impacts of urban processes and urbanization on summer precipitation:A case study of heavy rainfall in Beijing on 1 August 2006.J Appl Meteor Climatol,50(4):806-825
Mlawer E J,Taubman S J,Brown P D,et al.1997.Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres:RRTM,a validated correlated-k model for the longwave.J Geophys Res:Atmos,102(D14):16663-16682
Paulson C A.1970.The mathematical representation of wind speed and temperature profiles in the unstable atmospheric surface layer.J Appl Meteor,9(6):857-861
Pleim J E.2007.A combined local and nonlocal closure model for the atmospheric boundary layer.Part I:Model description and testing.J Appl Meteor Climatol,46(9):1383-1395
Rosenfeld D.2000.Suppression of rain and snow by urban and industrial air pollution.Science,287(5459):1793-1796
Seto K C,Shepherd J M.2009.Global urban land-use trends and climate impacts.Curr Opin Environ Sust,1(1):89-95
Tewari M,Chen F,Wang W.2004.Implementation and verification of the unified NOAH land surface model in the WRF model//Proceedings of the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction.Seattle,WA,US:American Meteorological Society,11-15
Thériault J M,Stewart R E,Henson W.2010.On the dependence of winter precipitation types on temperature,precipitation rate,and associated features.J Appl Meteor Climatol,49(7):1429-1442
Yin Y,Levin Z,Reisin T,et al.2000.Seeding convective clouds with hygroscopic flares:Numerical simulations using a cloud model with detailed microphysics.J Appl Meteor,39(9):1460-1472
Zhong S,Qian Y,Zhao C.2017.Urbanization-induced urban heat island and aerosol effects on climate extremes in the Yangtze River Delta region of China.Atmos Chem Phys,17(8):5439-5457
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