汉江上游流域水文循环过程对气候变化的响应
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摘要
气候变化对水资源的时空格局及水循环产生了不同程度的影响。以汉江上游流域为例,采用线性回归法、Mann-Kendall非参数检验等方法,分析了1961-2013年的水文气象要素变化特征;构建了分布式时变增益模型(DTVGM),验证了模型在该流域的适用性;根据CMIP5多模式集合平均的结果,分析了RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下2011-2099年的降水、气温及径流的响应过程。结果表明,1961-2013年汉江上游流域年降水量随时间缓慢减少,气温显著上升,年均径流量显著减少;在两种气候情景下,未来该流域降水量较基准期有所增加,气温随时间将显著上升,径流量较基准期减少但是随时间呈现增加趋势。结果预示着在未来气候变化的情况下,汉江上游流域水文循环将受到较大影响,可能出现一定程度的水资源短缺。
Climate change has different degrees of impact on the spatial and temporal patterns of water resources and the water cycle. Taking the Upper Hanjiang River Basin as an example, this paper analyzes the variation characteristics of hydrometeorological elements from 1961 to 2013 by linear regression method and Mann-Kendall nonparametric test. The Distributed Time Variant Gain Model(DTVGM) is constructed, and the applicability of this model in the basin is verified. According to the results of CMIP5 multi-mode set average, the change of precipitation, temperature and the runoff response process in 2011-2099 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 is analyzed. The results show that, from 1961 to 2013, the annual precipitation in the Upper Hanjiang River basin gradually decreased with time, the temperature increased significantly with time, and the annual average runoff decreased significantly with time. Under the two climatic scenarios, the precipitation in the Upper Hanjiang River Basin will increase in the future compared with the baseline period, the temperature will increase significantly with time, and the runoff will decrease from the baseline period but will increase with time. The results indicate that in the future climate change, the hydrological cycle in the Upper Hanjiang River Basin will be greatly affected, and there may be a certain degree of water shortage.
Climate change has different degrees of impact on the spatial and temporal patterns of water resources and the water cycle. Taking the Upper Hanjiang River Basin as an example, this paper analyzes the variation characteristics of hydrometeorological elements from 1961 to 2013 by linear regression method and Mann-Kendall nonparametric test. The Distributed Time Variant Gain Model(DTVGM) is constructed, and the applicability of this model in the basin is verified. According to the results of CMIP5 multi-mode set average, the change of precipitation, temperature and the runoff response process in 2011-2099 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 is analyzed. The results show that, from 1961 to 2013, the annual precipitation in the Upper Hanjiang River basin gradually decreased with time, the temperature increased significantly with time, and the annual average runoff decreased significantly with time. Under the two climatic scenarios, the precipitation in the Upper Hanjiang River Basin will increase in the future compared with the baseline period, the temperature will increase significantly with time, and the runoff will decrease from the baseline period but will increase with time. The results indicate that in the future climate change, the hydrological cycle in the Upper Hanjiang River Basin will be greatly affected, and there may be a certain degree of water shortage.
引文
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[25] 夏军,王纲胜,吕爱锋,等.分布式时变增益流域水循环模拟[J].地理学报,2003,58(5):789-796.
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[2] Zhu T,Jenkins M W,Lund J R.Estimated impacts of climate warming on California water availability under twelve future climate scenarios[J].Journal of the American Water Resources Association,2005,41( 5):1 027-1 038.
[3] Jones R N,Chiew F H S,Waiter C B,et al.Estimating the sensitivity of mean annual runoff to climate change using selected hydrological models[J].Advances in Water Resources,2006,29(10):1 419-1 429.
[4] Chiew F H S,Tenga J,Vazea J,et al.Influence of global climate model selection on runoff impact assessment[J].Journal of Hydrology,2009,379(1/2):172-180.
[5] 王铭昊,李焕连,孙小婷.中国6个CMIP5模式对全球降水年际-年代际变率模拟的定量评估[J].气象,2018,44(5):634-644.
[6] Lawin A E,Lamboni B,Manirakiza C,et al.Climate Change 2013:the Physical Science Basis.Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M].Cambridge,UK:Cambridge University Press,2014.
[7] Pachauri R K,Meyer L A.Climate Change 2014:Synthesis Report.Contribution of working groups I,II and III to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change[R].Geneva,Switzerland:IPCC,2014.
[8] JIANG T,CHEN Y Q,XU C Y,et al.Comparison of hydrological impacts of climate change simulated by six hydrological models in the Dongjiang Basin,South China[J].Journal of Hydrology,2007,336(3/4):316-333.
[9] XU Z X,ZHAO F F,LI J Y.Response of streamflow to climate change in the headwater catchment of the Yellow River Basin[J].Quaternary International,2009,208(1/2):62-75.
[10] 袁飞,谢正辉,任立良,等.气候变化对海河流域水文特性的影响[J].水利学报,2005,36(3):1-7.
[11] 张建云,王国庆,等.气候变化对水文水资源影响研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2007.
[12] 贾仰文,高辉,牛存稳,等.气候变化对黄河源区径流过程的影响[J].水利学报,2008,39(1):52-58.
[13] 张利平,陈小凤,胡志芳,等.气候变化对水文水资源影响的研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2008,27(3):60-67.
[14] 刘春臻.自然气候变异与人为气候变化对径流影响研究进展[J].气候变化研究进展,2008,4(3):133-139.
[15] Murphy J M,Sexton D M H,Barentt D N,et al.Quantification of modeling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulation[J].Nature,2004,430:768-772.
[16] Kumar T S V,Krishnamurti T N,Fiorino M,et al.Multimodel superensemble forecasting of tropical cyclones in the Pacific[J].Monthly Weather Review,2003,131:574-583.
[17] Cartwright T J,Krishnamurti T N.Warm season mesoscale superensemble precipitation forecasts in the southeastern United States[J].Weather and Forecasting,2007,22:873-886.
[18] 智协飞,伍清,白永清,等.基于IPCC-AR4模式资料的地面气温超级集合预测[J].气象科学,2010,30(5):708-714.
[19] Moss R,Babiker M,Brinkman S,et al.Towards new scenarios for analysis of emissions,climate change,impacts,and response strategies:Technical summary[R].Geneva,Switzerland:IPCC,2008.
[20] Burn D H,Hag E M A.Detection of hydrologic trendsand variability [J].Journal of Hydrology,2002,255(1-4):107-122.
[21] XIA J.A system approach to real-time hydrologic forecast in watersheds[J].Water International,2002,27(1):87-97.
[22] 夏军,王纲胜,谈戈,等.水文非线性系统与分布式时变增益模型[J].中国科学D辑:地球科学,2004,34(11):1 062-1 071.
[23] 夏军,叶爱中,乔云峰,等.黄河无定河流域分布式时变增益水文模型的应用研究[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2007,15(4):457-465.
[24] 王纲胜,夏军,谈戈,等.潮河流域时变增益分布式水循环模型研究[J].地理科学进展,2002,21(6):573-582.
[25] 夏军,王纲胜,吕爱锋,等.分布式时变增益流域水循环模拟[J].地理学报,2003,58(5):789-796.
[26] 王纲胜.分布式时变增益水文模型理论与方法研究[D].北京:中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,2005:1-118.
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