京津冀大气污染传输通道城市PM_(2.5)污染的死亡效应评估
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摘要
基于Web of science数据库搜集的1442篇文献资料,采用Meta分析方法确定PM_(2.5)污染与居民不同健康终点之间的暴露反应系数.在此基础上,本文选取2015年PM_(2.5)浓度遥感数据、公里格网人口数据及人口死亡统计数据,借助Poisson回归模型评估京津冀大气污染传输通道城市1 km×1 km尺度上PM_(2.5)污染的死亡效应.结果表明:①PM_(2.5)污染与人口总死亡率、循环系统疾病死亡率、呼吸系统疾病死亡率和肺癌死亡率等存在显著的暴露反应关系,其中,PM_(2.5)浓度每增加10μg·m~(-3),对应健康终点死亡率分别上升5.67%(95%Confidence Interval(CI):3.87%～8.29%)、6.93%(95%CI:3.92%～12.25%)、4.78%(95%CI:1.31%～17.51%)和9.55%(95%CI:3.67%～24.86%).②PM_(2.5)污染成为诱致人口死亡的重要因素,2015年京津冀大气污染传输通道城市PM_(2.5)污染造成的死亡人数为307599人,占据总死亡人数的28.64%.其中,死于循环系统疾病、呼吸系统疾病和肺癌的人数分别为183084、21096和32203人.③实施严格的PM_(2.5)浓度控制目标将给居民带来极大的健康收益,如果能够达成世界卫生组织4个阶段的PM_(2.5)浓度控制目标,京津冀大气污染传输通道城市可避免的死亡人数分别为144236、197167、253180和282401人,与基准年相比分别下降46.89%、64.10%、82.31%和91.81%.
A set of exposure-response coefficients between PM_(2.5) pollution and different health endpoints were determined through the meta-analysis method based on 1442 studies collected from the Web of Science database. With the data of remotely-sensed PM_(2.5) concentrations, gridded population densities and demographic death statistics for 2015, Poisson regression model was used to assess the death effect of PM_(2.5) pollution on residents in cities of atmospheric pollution transmission channel in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei district at 1 km resolution. We found that significant exposure-response relationships existed between PM_(2.5) pollution and a set of different health endpoints, including the mortality rates of total population, circulatory diseases, respiratory diseases and lung cancer. Each increase of 10 μg·m~(-3) in PM_(2.5) concentration has led to an increase of 5.67%(95% Confidence Interval or CI: 3.87%～ 8.29%), 6.93%(95% CI: 3.92%～12.25%), 4.78%(95% CI: 1.31%～17.51%) and 9.55%(95% CI: 3.67%～24.86%) for above-mentioned health endpoints, respectively. We also noticed that PM_(2.5) pollution was an important factor for inducing human deaths. In 2015, the number of deaths attributed to PM_(2.5) pollution was about 307599, accounting for 28.64% of the total death toll. Among which, the number of deaths from circulatory diseases, respiratory diseases and lung cancer were 183084, 21096 and 32203, respectively. We have confident in that great health benefits for residents could be realized by enforcing strict control targets of PM_(2.5) concentration. If the four-stage control targets of PM_(2.5) concentration specified by the World Health Organization(WHO) can be met, the numbers of deaths that can be reduced in cities of atmospheric pollution transmission channel in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei district are estimated to be 144236, 197167, 253180 and 282401, respectively, and the corresponding reduction rates would be 46.89%, 64.10%, 82.31% and 91.81%, in comparison with the figures of the base year.
A set of exposure-response coefficients between PM_(2.5) pollution and different health endpoints were determined through the meta-analysis method based on 1442 studies collected from the Web of Science database. With the data of remotely-sensed PM_(2.5) concentrations, gridded population densities and demographic death statistics for 2015, Poisson regression model was used to assess the death effect of PM_(2.5) pollution on residents in cities of atmospheric pollution transmission channel in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei district at 1 km resolution. We found that significant exposure-response relationships existed between PM_(2.5) pollution and a set of different health endpoints, including the mortality rates of total population, circulatory diseases, respiratory diseases and lung cancer. Each increase of 10 μg·m~(-3) in PM_(2.5) concentration has led to an increase of 5.67%(95% Confidence Interval or CI: 3.87%～ 8.29%), 6.93%(95% CI: 3.92%～12.25%), 4.78%(95% CI: 1.31%～17.51%) and 9.55%(95% CI: 3.67%～24.86%) for above-mentioned health endpoints, respectively. We also noticed that PM_(2.5) pollution was an important factor for inducing human deaths. In 2015, the number of deaths attributed to PM_(2.5) pollution was about 307599, accounting for 28.64% of the total death toll. Among which, the number of deaths from circulatory diseases, respiratory diseases and lung cancer were 183084, 21096 and 32203, respectively. We have confident in that great health benefits for residents could be realized by enforcing strict control targets of PM_(2.5) concentration. If the four-stage control targets of PM_(2.5) concentration specified by the World Health Organization(WHO) can be met, the numbers of deaths that can be reduced in cities of atmospheric pollution transmission channel in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei district are estimated to be 144236, 197167, 253180 and 282401, respectively, and the corresponding reduction rates would be 46.89%, 64.10%, 82.31% and 91.81%, in comparison with the figures of the base year.
引文
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Glass G V.1976.Primary,secondary,and meta-analysis of research[J].Educational Researcher,5(10):3-8
Gualtieri M,Longhin E,Mattioli M,et al.2012.Gene expression profiling of A549 cells exposed to Milan PM2.5 [J].Toxicology Letters,209(2):136-145
Hammtt J K,Zhou Y.2006.The economic value of air-pollution-related health risks in China: A contingent valuation study [J].Environmental and Resource Economics,33(3):399-423
Han L,Zhou W,Li W,et al.2017.Global population exposed to fine particulate pollution by population increase and pollution expansion[J].Air Quality Atmosphere and Health,10(10):1221-1226
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Hoek G,Krishnan R M,Beelen R,et al.2013.Long-term air pollution exposure and cardio- respiratory mortality:a review [J].Environmental Health,12(1):43
黄德生,张世秋.2013.京津冀地区控制PM2.5污染的健康效益评估[J].中国环境科学,33(1):166-174
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Liu J,Han Y Q,Tang X,et al.2016.Estimating adult mortality attributable to PM2.5 exposure in China with assimilated PM2.5 concentrations based on a ground monitoring network [J].Science of the Total Environment,(568):1253-1262
刘春兰,关婧,李铮,等.2016.世界城市空气污染治理与空气质量管理研究[M].北京:化学工业出版社
刘帅,宋国君.2016.城市PM2.5健康损害评估研究[J].环境科学学报,36(4):1468-1476
刘晓霞,邹小华,王兴中.2012.国外健康地理学研究进展[J].人文地理,(3):23-27
绿色和平.2016.2015年度中国366座城市PM2.5浓度排名[OL].2016-01-28. http://www.pm25.com/news/974.html
马骁,杨洋,王莹莹,等.2015.Meta分析中剂量反应关系的分析方法及其应用[J].复旦学报(医学版),42(1):123-128
马静,柴彦威,符婷婷.2017.居民时空行为与环境污染暴露对健康影响的研究进展[J].地理科学进展,36(10):1260-1269
Maclure M.1991.The case-crossover design:a method for studying transient effects on the risk of acute events [J].American Journal of Epidemiology,133(2):144-153
Montiel-D?v A,Ibarra-S?n M J,Ventura-Gallegos J L,et al.2010.Oxidative stress and apoptosis are induced in human endothelial cells exposed to urban particulate matter[J].Toxicology in Vitro,24(1):135-141
Oh S M,Kim H R,Yong J P,et al.2011.Organic extracts of urban air pollution particulate matter(PM2.5)-induced genotoxicity and oxidative stress in human lung bronchial epithelial cells(BEAS-2B cells) [J].Mutation Research,723(2):142-151
Peel J L,Metzger K B,Klein M,et al.2004.Ambient air pollution and cardiovascular emergency department visits in potentially sensitive groups [J].Epidemiology,15(1):46-56
Puett R C,Hart J E,Suh H,et al.2011.Particulate matter exposures,and cardiovascular disease in the health professional follow-up study [J].Environment Health Perspectives,119(8):1130-1135
Seethaler R K,Herry M.2003.Economic costs of air pollution-related health impacts:A impact assessment project of Austria,France and Switzerland [J].Clean Air and Environmental Quality,37(1):35-43
Shi Y,Matsunaga T,Yamaguchi Y,et al.2018.Long-term trends and spatial patterns of satellite-retrieved PM2.5 concentrations in South and Southeast Asia from 1999 to 2014 [J].Science of the Total Environment,615:177-186
Styszko K,Samek L,Szramowiat K,et al.2017.Oxidative potential of PM10 and PM2.5 collected at high air pollution site related to chemical composition:Krakow case study[J].Air Quality Atmosphere and Health,10:1123-1137
Tsai S S,Chang C C,Liou S H,et al.2014.The effects of fine particulate air pollution on daily mortality:a case-crossover study in a subtropical city,Taipei,Taiwan[J].International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health,11(5):5081-5093
Van D A,Martin R V,Brauer M,et al.2016.Global estimates of fine particulate matter using a combined geophysical-statistical method with information from satellites,models,and monitors[J].Environmental Science & Technology,50(7):3762-3772
王桂芝,顾赛菊,陈纪波.2016.基于投入产出模型的北京市雾霾间接经济损失评估[J].环境工程,34(1):121-125
魏国茹,史兴民.2018.西安市PM2.5健康损害价值评估[J].环境科学,39(7):3014-3021
王静,杨小唤,石瑞香.2012.山东省人口空间分布格局的多尺度分析[J].地理科学进展,31(2):176-182
谢鹏,刘晓云,刘兆荣,等.2009.我国人群大气颗粒物污染暴露—反应关系的研究[J].中国环境科学,29(10):1034-1040
谢杨,戴瀚程,花岡達也,等.2016.PM2.5污染对京津冀地区人群健康影响和经济影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,26(11):19-27
谢志祥,秦耀辰,李亚男,等.2017.基于PM2.5的中国雾霾灾害风险评价[J].环境科学学报,37(12):4503-4510
Xie Z,Qin Y,Zhang L,et al.2018.Death effects assessment of PM2.5 pollution in China[J].Polish Journal of Environmental Studies,27(4):1813-1821
赵晓丽,范春阳,王予希.2014.基于修正人力资本法的北京市空气污染物健康损失评价[J].中国人口·资源与环境,24(3):169-176
中华人民共和国环境保护部.2017.京津冀及周边地区2017年大气污染防治工作方案[OL].2017-03-31.http://www.china-nengyuan.com/news/106493.html
Beelen R,Raaschou-Nielsen O,Stafoggia M,et al.2014.Effects of long-term exposure to air pollution on natural-cause mortality: an analysis of 22 European cohorts within the multicentre ESCAPE project [J].Lancet,383(9919):785-795
Burnett R T,Pope III C A,Ezzati M,et al.2014.An integrated risk function for estimating the global burden of disease attributable to ambient fine particulate matter exposure[J].Environmental Health Perspectives,122(4):397-403
Dan L C,Peters P A,Hystad P,et al.2015.Ambient PM2.5,O3,and NO2 exposures and associations with mortality over 16 years of follow-up in the Canadian census health and environment cohort [J].Environment Health Perspectives,123(11):1180-1186
Fang D,Wang Q,Li H,et al.2016.Mortality effects assessment of ambient PM2.5 pollution in the 74 leading cities of China [J].Science of the Total Environment,569-570:1545-1552
Glass G V.1976.Primary,secondary,and meta-analysis of research[J].Educational Researcher,5(10):3-8
Gualtieri M,Longhin E,Mattioli M,et al.2012.Gene expression profiling of A549 cells exposed to Milan PM2.5 [J].Toxicology Letters,209(2):136-145
Hammtt J K,Zhou Y.2006.The economic value of air-pollution-related health risks in China: A contingent valuation study [J].Environmental and Resource Economics,33(3):399-423
Han L,Zhou W,Li W,et al.2017.Global population exposed to fine particulate pollution by population increase and pollution expansion[J].Air Quality Atmosphere and Health,10(10):1221-1226
Hartog J D,Hoek G,Peters A,et al.2001.Effects of fine and ultrafine particles on cardio-respiratory symptoms [J].Epidemiology,12(4):S63-S63
Hoek G,Krishnan R M,Beelen R,et al.2013.Long-term air pollution exposure and cardio- respiratory mortality:a review [J].Environmental Health,12(1):43
黄德生,张世秋.2013.京津冀地区控制PM2.5污染的健康效益评估[J].中国环境科学,33(1):166-174
Kassebaum N J,Agc S,Bernabé E,et al.2017.Global,regional,and national prevalence,incidence,and disability-adjusted life years for oral conditions for 195 countries,1990—2015:A systematic analysis for the global burden of diseases,injuries,and risk factors [J].Journal of Dental Research,96(4):380-387
Liu J,Han Y Q,Tang X,et al.2016.Estimating adult mortality attributable to PM2.5 exposure in China with assimilated PM2.5 concentrations based on a ground monitoring network [J].Science of the Total Environment,(568):1253-1262
刘春兰,关婧,李铮,等.2016.世界城市空气污染治理与空气质量管理研究[M].北京:化学工业出版社
刘帅,宋国君.2016.城市PM2.5健康损害评估研究[J].环境科学学报,36(4):1468-1476
刘晓霞,邹小华,王兴中.2012.国外健康地理学研究进展[J].人文地理,(3):23-27
绿色和平.2016.2015年度中国366座城市PM2.5浓度排名[OL].2016-01-28. http://www.pm25.com/news/974.html
马骁,杨洋,王莹莹,等.2015.Meta分析中剂量反应关系的分析方法及其应用[J].复旦学报(医学版),42(1):123-128
马静,柴彦威,符婷婷.2017.居民时空行为与环境污染暴露对健康影响的研究进展[J].地理科学进展,36(10):1260-1269
Maclure M.1991.The case-crossover design:a method for studying transient effects on the risk of acute events [J].American Journal of Epidemiology,133(2):144-153
Montiel-D?v A,Ibarra-S?n M J,Ventura-Gallegos J L,et al.2010.Oxidative stress and apoptosis are induced in human endothelial cells exposed to urban particulate matter[J].Toxicology in Vitro,24(1):135-141
Oh S M,Kim H R,Yong J P,et al.2011.Organic extracts of urban air pollution particulate matter(PM2.5)-induced genotoxicity and oxidative stress in human lung bronchial epithelial cells(BEAS-2B cells) [J].Mutation Research,723(2):142-151
Peel J L,Metzger K B,Klein M,et al.2004.Ambient air pollution and cardiovascular emergency department visits in potentially sensitive groups [J].Epidemiology,15(1):46-56
Puett R C,Hart J E,Suh H,et al.2011.Particulate matter exposures,and cardiovascular disease in the health professional follow-up study [J].Environment Health Perspectives,119(8):1130-1135
Seethaler R K,Herry M.2003.Economic costs of air pollution-related health impacts:A impact assessment project of Austria,France and Switzerland [J].Clean Air and Environmental Quality,37(1):35-43
Shi Y,Matsunaga T,Yamaguchi Y,et al.2018.Long-term trends and spatial patterns of satellite-retrieved PM2.5 concentrations in South and Southeast Asia from 1999 to 2014 [J].Science of the Total Environment,615:177-186
Styszko K,Samek L,Szramowiat K,et al.2017.Oxidative potential of PM10 and PM2.5 collected at high air pollution site related to chemical composition:Krakow case study[J].Air Quality Atmosphere and Health,10:1123-1137
Tsai S S,Chang C C,Liou S H,et al.2014.The effects of fine particulate air pollution on daily mortality:a case-crossover study in a subtropical city,Taipei,Taiwan[J].International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health,11(5):5081-5093
Van D A,Martin R V,Brauer M,et al.2016.Global estimates of fine particulate matter using a combined geophysical-statistical method with information from satellites,models,and monitors[J].Environmental Science & Technology,50(7):3762-3772
王桂芝,顾赛菊,陈纪波.2016.基于投入产出模型的北京市雾霾间接经济损失评估[J].环境工程,34(1):121-125
魏国茹,史兴民.2018.西安市PM2.5健康损害价值评估[J].环境科学,39(7):3014-3021
王静,杨小唤,石瑞香.2012.山东省人口空间分布格局的多尺度分析[J].地理科学进展,31(2):176-182
谢鹏,刘晓云,刘兆荣,等.2009.我国人群大气颗粒物污染暴露—反应关系的研究[J].中国环境科学,29(10):1034-1040
谢杨,戴瀚程,花岡達也,等.2016.PM2.5污染对京津冀地区人群健康影响和经济影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,26(11):19-27
谢志祥,秦耀辰,李亚男,等.2017.基于PM2.5的中国雾霾灾害风险评价[J].环境科学学报,37(12):4503-4510
Xie Z,Qin Y,Zhang L,et al.2018.Death effects assessment of PM2.5 pollution in China[J].Polish Journal of Environmental Studies,27(4):1813-1821
赵晓丽,范春阳,王予希.2014.基于修正人力资本法的北京市空气污染物健康损失评价[J].中国人口·资源与环境,24(3):169-176
中华人民共和国环境保护部.2017.京津冀及周边地区2017年大气污染防治工作方案[OL].2017-03-31.http://www.china-nengyuan.com/news/106493.html
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