ENSO combination mode and its influence on seasonal precipitation over southern China simulated by ECHAM5/MPI-OM
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摘要
对东亚气候年际变率的研究仍存在许多值得探寻之处。已有研究表明,产生于ENSO年际变率和暖池年循环相互作用的C-mode与东亚气候异常变化的关系密切,特别是自20世纪90年代以来,ENSO对中国南方降水的贡献减弱,而C-mode的影响则在2000年后凸显出来。本文利用600年长时间模拟结果评估了气候模式ECHAM5/MPI-OM对C-mode及其对华南季节降水影响的模拟。结果表明该模式能够再现C-mode的时空特征以及热带海气对其的非对称响应。同时也能较好地抓住C-mode影响华南冬春季降水异常的时空结构。这将有助于进一步利用ECHAM5/MPI-OM来模拟和预测与C-mode相关的华南季节降水异常变化。
Recent studies show that a combination mode(C-mode) represents the seasonally modulated dynamics of ENSO, which plays an important role in maintaining the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone. This C-mode could obviously influence the East Asian climate, especially since the contribution of ENSO to southern China's precipitation has weakened since the late 1990s.This paper evaluates whether the C-mode and its influences on precipitation over southern China can be realistically described by the climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. The authors find that the model is able to reproduce the spatial and temporal variability of the C-mode and the asymmetric responses of air–sea variations in the tropical Pacific. The model also reveals the observed significant effects of the C-mode on the wintertime and springtime rainfall over southern China during El Ni?o events. The findings have implications for ECHAM5/MPI-OM being a valuable tool for simulating and predicting the C-mode-related seasonal precipitation over southern China.
Recent studies show that a combination mode(C-mode) represents the seasonally modulated dynamics of ENSO, which plays an important role in maintaining the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone. This C-mode could obviously influence the East Asian climate, especially since the contribution of ENSO to southern China's precipitation has weakened since the late 1990s.This paper evaluates whether the C-mode and its influences on precipitation over southern China can be realistically described by the climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. The authors find that the model is able to reproduce the spatial and temporal variability of the C-mode and the asymmetric responses of air–sea variations in the tropical Pacific. The model also reveals the observed significant effects of the C-mode on the wintertime and springtime rainfall over southern China during El Ni?o events. The findings have implications for ECHAM5/MPI-OM being a valuable tool for simulating and predicting the C-mode-related seasonal precipitation over southern China.
引文
Alexander,M.A.,I.Bladé,M.Newman,J.R.Lanzante,N.-C.Lau and J.D.Scott.2002.“The Atmospheric Bridge:The Influence of ENSO Teleconnections on Air-Sea Interaction over the Global Oceans.”Journal of Climate 15(16)2205-2231.doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2205TABTIO>2.0.CO;2.
Du,Y.,S.Xie,G.Huang,and K.Hu.2009.“Role of Air-Sea Interaction in the Long Persistence of El Ni?o-Induced North Indian Ocean Warming.”Journal of Climate 22(8)2023-2038.doi:10.1175/2008jcli2590.1.
Geng,X.,W.Zhang,M.F.Stuecker,P.Liu,-F.-F.Jin,and G.Tan2017.“Decadal Modulation of the ENSO-East Asian Winter Monsoon Relationship by the Atlantic Multidecada Oscillation.”Climate Dynamics 49:1-14.doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3465-0.
Gualdi,S.,A.Navarra,E.Guilyardi,and P.Delecluse.2003“Assessment of the Tropical Indo-Pacific Climate in the SINTEX CGCM.”Annales geophysicae 46:1-26.doi:10.4401/ag-3385.
Guilyardi,E.,S.Gualdi,J.Slingo,A.Navarra,P.Delecluse,J.Cole G.Madec,M.Roberts,M.Latif,and L.Terray.2004“Representing El Ni?o in Coupled Ocean Atmosphere GCMs The Dominant Role of the Atmospheric Component.”Journa of Climate 17(24):4623-4629.doi:10.1175/JCLI-3260.1.
Jia,X.,and J.Ge.2017.“Interdecadal Changes in the Relationship between ENSO,EAWM,and the Wintertime Precipitation over China at the End of the Twentieth Century.”Journal of Climate 30(6):1923-1937.doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0422.1.
Jungclaus,J.H.,N.Keenlyside,M.Botzet,H.Haak,J.J.Luo M.Latif,J.Marotzke,U.Mikolajewicz,and E.Roeckner.2006“Ocean Circulation and Tropical Variability in the Coupled Model ECHAM5/MPI-OM.”Journal of Climate 19(16)3952-3972.doi:10.1175/JCLI3827.1.
Kalnay,E.,M.Kanamitsu,R.Kistler,W.Collins,D.Deaven L.Gandin,M.Iredell,S.Saha,G.White,and J.Woollen.1996“The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project.”Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 77(3):437-472.doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2.
Keenlyside,N.,M Latif,M.Botzet,and J.Jungclaus.2005“A Coupled Method for Initialising ENSO Forecasts Using SST.”Tellus 57A:340-356.doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00107.x.
Keenlyside,N.S.,M.Latif,J.Jungclaus,L.Kornblueh,and E.Roeckner.2008.“Advancing Decadal-Scale Climate Prediction in the North Atlantic Sector.”Nature 453(7191)84-88.doi:10.1038/nature06921.
Lengaigne,M.,J.-P.Boulanger,C.Menkes,and H.Spencer2006.“Influence of the Seasonal Cycle on the Termination of El Ni?o Events in a Coupled General Circulation Model.”Journal of Climate 19(9):1850-1868.doi:10.1175/jcli3706.1
Li,H.,W.Zhang,and J.He.2016.“Influences of ENSO and Its Combination Mode on Seasonal Precipitation over Eastern China.”Acta Meteorologica Sinica 74(3):322-334.
Li,H.,W.Zhang,J.He,and Y.Wang.2016.“Influence of SSTAnnual Cycle on Local Air-Sea Processes during El Ni?o Events.”Acta Oceanologica Sinica 38(1):56-68.
Luo,H.,F.Zheng,and J.Zhu.2017.“Evaluation of Oceanic Surface Observation for Reproducing the Upper Ocean Structure in ECHAM5/MPI-OM.”Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans122(12):9695-9711.doi:10.1002/2017JC013413.
Marsland,S.J.,H.Haak,J.H.Jungclaus,M.Latif,and F.R?ske2003.“The Max-Planck-Institute Global Ocean/Sea Ice Mode with Orthogonal Curvilinear Coordinates.”Ocean Modelling 5(2):91-127.doi:10.1016/S1463-5003(02)00015-X.
McGregor,S.,A.Timmermann,N.Schneider,M.F.Stuecker and M.H.England.2012.“The Effect of the South Pacific Convergence Zone on the Termination of El Ni?o Events and the Meridional Asymmetry of ENSO.”Journal of Climate25(16):5566-5586.doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00332.1.
Neelin,J.D.,D.S.Battisti,A.C.Hirst,-F.-F.Jin,Y.Wakata T.Yamagata,and S.E.Zebiak.1998.“ENSO Theory.”Journa of Geophysical Research Oceans 103(C7):14261-14290doi:10.1029/97JC03424.
Oldenborgh,G.J.V.,S.Y.Philip,and M.Collins.2005.“El Ni?o in a Changing Climate:A Multi-Model Study.”Ocean Science1(2):81-95.doi:10.5194/os-1-81-2005.
Philander,S.G.,A.Rogério Dos Santos,and E.A.Alex Soares de Souza.1990.“El-Nino,La Nina and the Southern Oscillation.”International Geophysics Series 46:293doi:10.1017/CBO9781107415324.004.
Ren,H.,J.Zuo,F.Jin,and M.F.Stuecker.2016.“ENSO and Annual Cycle Interaction:The Combination Mode Representation in CMIP5 Models.”Climate Dynamics 463753-3765.doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2802-z.
Ropelewski,C.F.,and M.S.Halpert.1987.“Global and Regional Scale Precipitation Patterns Associated with the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation.”Monthly Weather Review 115(8):1606-1626.doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1606:GARSPP>2.0.CO;2.
Stuecker,M.F.,-F.-F.Jin,A.Timmermann,and S.McGregor2015.“Combination Mode Dynamics of the Anomalous Northwest Pacific Anticyclone.”Journal of Climate 28(3)1093-1111.doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00225.1.
Stuecker,M.F.,A.Timmermann,F.Jin,S.McGregor,and H.-L.Ren.2013.“A Combination Mode of the Annual Cycle and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation.”Nature Geoscience 6(7)540-544.doi:10.1038/ngeo1826.
Trenberth,K.E.,and J.M.Caron.2000.“The Southern Oscillation Revisited:Sea Level Pressures,Surface Temperatures,and Precipitation.”Journal of Climate 13(24):4358-4365doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<4358:tsorsl>2.0.co;2.
Vecchi,G.A.2005.“The Termination of the 1997 98 El Ni?o Part II:Mechanisms of Atmospheric Change.”Journal of Climate 19(12):2647-2664.doi:10.1175/JCLI3780.1.
Vecchi,G.A.,and D.E.Harrison.2003.“On the Termination of the 2002-03 El Ni?o Event.”Geophysical Research Letters 30(18):1-4.doi:10.1029/2003GL017564.
Wan,J.,H.Ren,and P.Wu.2018.“Representation of the ENSOCombination Mode and Its Asymmetric SST Response in Different Resolutions of HadGEM3.”Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 35(8):1063-1076.doi:10.1007/s00376-018-7285-5.
Wang,B.,R.Wu,and R.Lukas.1999.“Role of the Western North Pacific Wind Variation in Thermocline Adjustment and ENSO Phase Transition.”Journal of the Meteorologica Society of Japan 77:1-16.doi:10.2151/jmsj1965.77.1_1.
Weisheimer,A.,F.J.Doblas-Reyes,T.N.Palmer,A.Alessandri A.Arribas,M.Déqué,N.Keenlyside,M.Macvean,A.Navarra and P.Rogel.2009.“ENSEMBLES:A New Multi-Mode Ensemble for Seasonal-To-Annual predictions-Skill and Progress beyond DEMETER in Forecasting Tropical Pacific SSTs.”Geophysical Research Letters 36(21):147-148doi:10.1029/2009gl040896.
Wolff,J.-O.,E.Maier-Reimer,and S.Legutke.1997.“The Hamburg Ocean Primitive Equation Model HOPE.”Technical Report 13German Climate Computer Cernter(DKRZ),Hamburg,98 pp.
Xu,K.,Q.Huang,C.Y.Tam,W.Wang,S.Chen,and C.Zhu.2018“Roles of Tropical SST Patterns during Two Types of ENSO in Modulating Wintertime Rainfall over Southern China.”Climate Dynamics 1-16.doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4170-y.
Zhang,R.,Q.Min,and J.Su.2017.“Impact of El Ni?o on Atmospheric Circulations over East Asia and Rainfall in China:Role of the Anomalous Western North Pacific Anticyclone.”Science China Earth Sciences 60(6)1124-1132.doi:10.1007/s11430-016-9026-x.
Zhang,W.,F.Jin,M.F.Stuecker,A.T.Wittenberg,A.Timmermann H.-L.Ren,J.-S.Kug,W.Cai,and M.Cane.2016a.“Unraveling ENino’s Impact on the East Asian Monsoon and Yangtze River Summer Flooding.”Geophysical Research Letters 43(21)11375-11382.doi:10.1002/2016gl071190.
Zhang,W.,H.Li,M.F.Stuecker,F.Jin,and A.G.Turner2016b.“A New Understanding of El Ni?o’s Impact over East Asia:Dominance of the ENSO Combination Mode.”Journal of Climate 29(12):4347-4359.doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0104.1.
Zheng,F.2014.“ENSO Variability Simulated by a Coupled General Circulation Model:ECHAM5/MPI-OM.”Atmospheric&Oceanic Science Letters 7(5):471-475.doi:10.3878/j issn.1674-2834.14.0014.
Zheng,F.,J.Zhu,H.Wang,and R.H.Zhang.2009.“Ensemble Hindcasts of ENSO Events over the past 120 Years Using a Large Number of Ensembles.”Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 26(2):359-372.doi:10.1007/s00376-009-0359-7.
Zheng,F.,J.Zhu,and R.Zhang.2007.“Impact of Altimetry Data on ENSO Ensemble Initializations and Predictions.”Geophysical Research Letters 34(13):256-260.doi:10.1029/2007gl030451.
Zhu,J.,B.Huang,M.A.Balmaseda,J.L.Kinter,P.Peng,-Z.-Z.Hu and L.Marx.2013.“Improved Reliability of ENSO Hindcasts with Multi-Ocean Analyses Ensemble Initialization.”Climate Dynamics 41(9-10):2785-2795.doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1965-8.
Du,Y.,S.Xie,G.Huang,and K.Hu.2009.“Role of Air-Sea Interaction in the Long Persistence of El Ni?o-Induced North Indian Ocean Warming.”Journal of Climate 22(8)2023-2038.doi:10.1175/2008jcli2590.1.
Geng,X.,W.Zhang,M.F.Stuecker,P.Liu,-F.-F.Jin,and G.Tan2017.“Decadal Modulation of the ENSO-East Asian Winter Monsoon Relationship by the Atlantic Multidecada Oscillation.”Climate Dynamics 49:1-14.doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3465-0.
Gualdi,S.,A.Navarra,E.Guilyardi,and P.Delecluse.2003“Assessment of the Tropical Indo-Pacific Climate in the SINTEX CGCM.”Annales geophysicae 46:1-26.doi:10.4401/ag-3385.
Guilyardi,E.,S.Gualdi,J.Slingo,A.Navarra,P.Delecluse,J.Cole G.Madec,M.Roberts,M.Latif,and L.Terray.2004“Representing El Ni?o in Coupled Ocean Atmosphere GCMs The Dominant Role of the Atmospheric Component.”Journa of Climate 17(24):4623-4629.doi:10.1175/JCLI-3260.1.
Jia,X.,and J.Ge.2017.“Interdecadal Changes in the Relationship between ENSO,EAWM,and the Wintertime Precipitation over China at the End of the Twentieth Century.”Journal of Climate 30(6):1923-1937.doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0422.1.
Jungclaus,J.H.,N.Keenlyside,M.Botzet,H.Haak,J.J.Luo M.Latif,J.Marotzke,U.Mikolajewicz,and E.Roeckner.2006“Ocean Circulation and Tropical Variability in the Coupled Model ECHAM5/MPI-OM.”Journal of Climate 19(16)3952-3972.doi:10.1175/JCLI3827.1.
Kalnay,E.,M.Kanamitsu,R.Kistler,W.Collins,D.Deaven L.Gandin,M.Iredell,S.Saha,G.White,and J.Woollen.1996“The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project.”Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 77(3):437-472.doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2.
Keenlyside,N.,M Latif,M.Botzet,and J.Jungclaus.2005“A Coupled Method for Initialising ENSO Forecasts Using SST.”Tellus 57A:340-356.doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00107.x.
Keenlyside,N.S.,M.Latif,J.Jungclaus,L.Kornblueh,and E.Roeckner.2008.“Advancing Decadal-Scale Climate Prediction in the North Atlantic Sector.”Nature 453(7191)84-88.doi:10.1038/nature06921.
Lengaigne,M.,J.-P.Boulanger,C.Menkes,and H.Spencer2006.“Influence of the Seasonal Cycle on the Termination of El Ni?o Events in a Coupled General Circulation Model.”Journal of Climate 19(9):1850-1868.doi:10.1175/jcli3706.1
Li,H.,W.Zhang,and J.He.2016.“Influences of ENSO and Its Combination Mode on Seasonal Precipitation over Eastern China.”Acta Meteorologica Sinica 74(3):322-334.
Li,H.,W.Zhang,J.He,and Y.Wang.2016.“Influence of SSTAnnual Cycle on Local Air-Sea Processes during El Ni?o Events.”Acta Oceanologica Sinica 38(1):56-68.
Luo,H.,F.Zheng,and J.Zhu.2017.“Evaluation of Oceanic Surface Observation for Reproducing the Upper Ocean Structure in ECHAM5/MPI-OM.”Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans122(12):9695-9711.doi:10.1002/2017JC013413.
Marsland,S.J.,H.Haak,J.H.Jungclaus,M.Latif,and F.R?ske2003.“The Max-Planck-Institute Global Ocean/Sea Ice Mode with Orthogonal Curvilinear Coordinates.”Ocean Modelling 5(2):91-127.doi:10.1016/S1463-5003(02)00015-X.
McGregor,S.,A.Timmermann,N.Schneider,M.F.Stuecker and M.H.England.2012.“The Effect of the South Pacific Convergence Zone on the Termination of El Ni?o Events and the Meridional Asymmetry of ENSO.”Journal of Climate25(16):5566-5586.doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00332.1.
Neelin,J.D.,D.S.Battisti,A.C.Hirst,-F.-F.Jin,Y.Wakata T.Yamagata,and S.E.Zebiak.1998.“ENSO Theory.”Journa of Geophysical Research Oceans 103(C7):14261-14290doi:10.1029/97JC03424.
Oldenborgh,G.J.V.,S.Y.Philip,and M.Collins.2005.“El Ni?o in a Changing Climate:A Multi-Model Study.”Ocean Science1(2):81-95.doi:10.5194/os-1-81-2005.
Philander,S.G.,A.Rogério Dos Santos,and E.A.Alex Soares de Souza.1990.“El-Nino,La Nina and the Southern Oscillation.”International Geophysics Series 46:293doi:10.1017/CBO9781107415324.004.
Ren,H.,J.Zuo,F.Jin,and M.F.Stuecker.2016.“ENSO and Annual Cycle Interaction:The Combination Mode Representation in CMIP5 Models.”Climate Dynamics 463753-3765.doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2802-z.
Ropelewski,C.F.,and M.S.Halpert.1987.“Global and Regional Scale Precipitation Patterns Associated with the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation.”Monthly Weather Review 115(8):1606-1626.doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1606:GARSPP>2.0.CO;2.
Stuecker,M.F.,-F.-F.Jin,A.Timmermann,and S.McGregor2015.“Combination Mode Dynamics of the Anomalous Northwest Pacific Anticyclone.”Journal of Climate 28(3)1093-1111.doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00225.1.
Stuecker,M.F.,A.Timmermann,F.Jin,S.McGregor,and H.-L.Ren.2013.“A Combination Mode of the Annual Cycle and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation.”Nature Geoscience 6(7)540-544.doi:10.1038/ngeo1826.
Trenberth,K.E.,and J.M.Caron.2000.“The Southern Oscillation Revisited:Sea Level Pressures,Surface Temperatures,and Precipitation.”Journal of Climate 13(24):4358-4365doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<4358:tsorsl>2.0.co;2.
Vecchi,G.A.2005.“The Termination of the 1997 98 El Ni?o Part II:Mechanisms of Atmospheric Change.”Journal of Climate 19(12):2647-2664.doi:10.1175/JCLI3780.1.
Vecchi,G.A.,and D.E.Harrison.2003.“On the Termination of the 2002-03 El Ni?o Event.”Geophysical Research Letters 30(18):1-4.doi:10.1029/2003GL017564.
Wan,J.,H.Ren,and P.Wu.2018.“Representation of the ENSOCombination Mode and Its Asymmetric SST Response in Different Resolutions of HadGEM3.”Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 35(8):1063-1076.doi:10.1007/s00376-018-7285-5.
Wang,B.,R.Wu,and R.Lukas.1999.“Role of the Western North Pacific Wind Variation in Thermocline Adjustment and ENSO Phase Transition.”Journal of the Meteorologica Society of Japan 77:1-16.doi:10.2151/jmsj1965.77.1_1.
Weisheimer,A.,F.J.Doblas-Reyes,T.N.Palmer,A.Alessandri A.Arribas,M.Déqué,N.Keenlyside,M.Macvean,A.Navarra and P.Rogel.2009.“ENSEMBLES:A New Multi-Mode Ensemble for Seasonal-To-Annual predictions-Skill and Progress beyond DEMETER in Forecasting Tropical Pacific SSTs.”Geophysical Research Letters 36(21):147-148doi:10.1029/2009gl040896.
Wolff,J.-O.,E.Maier-Reimer,and S.Legutke.1997.“The Hamburg Ocean Primitive Equation Model HOPE.”Technical Report 13German Climate Computer Cernter(DKRZ),Hamburg,98 pp.
Xu,K.,Q.Huang,C.Y.Tam,W.Wang,S.Chen,and C.Zhu.2018“Roles of Tropical SST Patterns during Two Types of ENSO in Modulating Wintertime Rainfall over Southern China.”Climate Dynamics 1-16.doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4170-y.
Zhang,R.,Q.Min,and J.Su.2017.“Impact of El Ni?o on Atmospheric Circulations over East Asia and Rainfall in China:Role of the Anomalous Western North Pacific Anticyclone.”Science China Earth Sciences 60(6)1124-1132.doi:10.1007/s11430-016-9026-x.
Zhang,W.,F.Jin,M.F.Stuecker,A.T.Wittenberg,A.Timmermann H.-L.Ren,J.-S.Kug,W.Cai,and M.Cane.2016a.“Unraveling ENino’s Impact on the East Asian Monsoon and Yangtze River Summer Flooding.”Geophysical Research Letters 43(21)11375-11382.doi:10.1002/2016gl071190.
Zhang,W.,H.Li,M.F.Stuecker,F.Jin,and A.G.Turner2016b.“A New Understanding of El Ni?o’s Impact over East Asia:Dominance of the ENSO Combination Mode.”Journal of Climate 29(12):4347-4359.doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0104.1.
Zheng,F.2014.“ENSO Variability Simulated by a Coupled General Circulation Model:ECHAM5/MPI-OM.”Atmospheric&Oceanic Science Letters 7(5):471-475.doi:10.3878/j issn.1674-2834.14.0014.
Zheng,F.,J.Zhu,H.Wang,and R.H.Zhang.2009.“Ensemble Hindcasts of ENSO Events over the past 120 Years Using a Large Number of Ensembles.”Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 26(2):359-372.doi:10.1007/s00376-009-0359-7.
Zheng,F.,J.Zhu,and R.Zhang.2007.“Impact of Altimetry Data on ENSO Ensemble Initializations and Predictions.”Geophysical Research Letters 34(13):256-260.doi:10.1029/2007gl030451.
Zhu,J.,B.Huang,M.A.Balmaseda,J.L.Kinter,P.Peng,-Z.-Z.Hu and L.Marx.2013.“Improved Reliability of ENSO Hindcasts with Multi-Ocean Analyses Ensemble Initialization.”Climate Dynamics 41(9-10):2785-2795.doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1965-8.
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