北京市虚拟水消费与贸易
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摘要
北京市作为水资源极度紧缺的城市,亟需提高水资源的利用效率。本文基于多尺度投入产出分析模型,对2012年北京市虚拟水消费及贸易情况进行了核算与分析,并与2007年的结果进行了比较。计算结果表明:2012年北京市消费引发的虚拟水用量高达139.5亿m3,是基于生产的直接实体用水量(35.9亿m3)的3.89倍;对比2007年,虚拟水消费增长(23.7%)远比直接用水增长(11.8%)快。北京市使用的全部水资源中仅有5%由北京本地供应,有超过3/5从国内其他省市调入,约35%从世界其他国家进口。与此相对应,这些水资源有1/5被北京本地消费使用,约3/4被调出到国内其他省市,6%被出口至其他国家。与2007年相比,2012年北京市国内虚拟水贸易由净调入转为净调出,净调出量为2007年净调入量的1.1倍;而国际虚拟水贸易由净出口转为净进口,净进口量为2007年净出口量的837.2倍。北京市2012年净输入虚拟水资源103.6亿m3(全部来源于国际贸易),有效地避免了对本地水资源的过度开采。与此同时,北京市通过转口贸易的形式将大量进口的虚拟水调出到了中国其他省市,为缓解国内水资源紧张局面作出了贡献。未来北京市应当在考虑能源矿产供应安全及消化国内过剩产能的前提下有策略性地增加矿产、能源、建筑和交通运输设备等部门部分产品的进口,以达到节约我国水资源及全球范围内水资源高效利用的目的。
As a city suffering from serious water resources shortage, Beijing is in urgent need to improve water use efficiency. Based on the method of multi-scale input-output analysis, this work calculates and analyzes the virtual water consumption and trade of Beijing in 2012, and compares the results to that of 2007. The results indicate that the consumption-based water resources use of Beijing were estimated up to 13.95 billion m3 in 2012, which were 3.89 times larger than the production-based direct water resources use(3.59 billion m3). Compared with2007, the virtual water consumption(23.7%) grew faster than direct water use(11.8%). For all water resources related to Beijing, only 5% was from local water withdrawal, while more than3/5 was domestically imported from other Chinese regions and about 35% was imported from foreign countries. Meanwhile, about 1/5 of these water resources was consumed to meet Beijing's local final demand, approximately 3/4 was exported to other domestic regions, and6% was exported to other countries. Beijing changed from a net domestic virtual water importer in 2007 into a net exporter in 2012, and the net domestically exported virtual water in2012 was 1.1 times larger than the net import in 2007. On the other hand, Beijing changed from a net international virtual water exporter in 2007 into a net importer in 2012, and the net international virtual water import(19.60 billion m3) was 837.2 times larger than the net export(0.02 billion m3) in 2007. Beijing net imported 10.36 billion m3 virtual water in 2012(all from international trade), which has successfully avoided the over-withdrawal of local water resources. At the same time, Beijing re-exported plenty of internationally imported virtual water to other Chinese regions, which has contributed a lot to alleviate domestic water shortage pressure. In order to reduce domestic water resources use and improve water use efficiency worldwide, Beijing is suggested to strategically increase the international import of mineral,energy, construction and transportation equipment products under the consideration of energy and mineral resource supply security, and to absorb domestic excess capacity in the future.
As a city suffering from serious water resources shortage, Beijing is in urgent need to improve water use efficiency. Based on the method of multi-scale input-output analysis, this work calculates and analyzes the virtual water consumption and trade of Beijing in 2012, and compares the results to that of 2007. The results indicate that the consumption-based water resources use of Beijing were estimated up to 13.95 billion m3 in 2012, which were 3.89 times larger than the production-based direct water resources use(3.59 billion m3). Compared with2007, the virtual water consumption(23.7%) grew faster than direct water use(11.8%). For all water resources related to Beijing, only 5% was from local water withdrawal, while more than3/5 was domestically imported from other Chinese regions and about 35% was imported from foreign countries. Meanwhile, about 1/5 of these water resources was consumed to meet Beijing's local final demand, approximately 3/4 was exported to other domestic regions, and6% was exported to other countries. Beijing changed from a net domestic virtual water importer in 2007 into a net exporter in 2012, and the net domestically exported virtual water in2012 was 1.1 times larger than the net import in 2007. On the other hand, Beijing changed from a net international virtual water exporter in 2007 into a net importer in 2012, and the net international virtual water import(19.60 billion m3) was 837.2 times larger than the net export(0.02 billion m3) in 2007. Beijing net imported 10.36 billion m3 virtual water in 2012(all from international trade), which has successfully avoided the over-withdrawal of local water resources. At the same time, Beijing re-exported plenty of internationally imported virtual water to other Chinese regions, which has contributed a lot to alleviate domestic water shortage pressure. In order to reduce domestic water resources use and improve water use efficiency worldwide, Beijing is suggested to strategically increase the international import of mineral,energy, construction and transportation equipment products under the consideration of energy and mineral resource supply security, and to absorb domestic excess capacity in the future.
引文
[1]刘冀宏,沈秀英.北京市缓解农业用水紧缺的途径.北京水务, 2004, 28(6):29-30.[LIU J H, SHEN X Y. The approach to alleviate the shortage of water in agriculture in Beijing. Beijing Water, 2004, 28(6):29-30.]
[2] ALLAN J A. Virtual water:A strategic resource. Ground Water, 1998, 36(4):545-547.
[3]孙艳芝,鲁春霞,谢高地,等.北京市水足迹.生态学杂志, 2015, 34(2):524-531.[SUN Y Z, LU C X, XIE G D, et al.Water footprint in Beijing. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 2015, 34(2):524-531.]
[4]李锋,王春月.虚拟水贸易视角下的水资源安全研究综述.河海大学学报:哲学社会科学版, 2014, 16(2):49-54.[LI F, WANG C Y. Research review of water security from the perspective of virtual water trade. Journal of Hohai University:Philosophy and Social Sciences, 2014, 16(2):49-54.]
[5]赵旭,杨志峰,陈彬.基于投入产出分析技术的中国虚拟水贸易及消费研究.自然资源学报, 2009, 24(2):286-294.[ZHAO X, YANG Z F, CHEN B. Study on Chinese virtual water trade and consumption in an input-output framework.Journal of Natural Resources, 2009, 24(2):286-294.]
[6] YANG H, ZEHNDER A."Virtual water":An unfolding concept in integrated water resources management. Water Resources Research, 2007, 43(12):W12301, Doi:10.1029/2007WR006048.
[7] ZHAO X, CHEN B, YANG Z F. National water footprint in an input-output framework:A case study of China 2002.Ecological Modelling, 2009, 220(2):245-253.
[8]谭圣林,邱国玉,熊育久.投入产出法在虚拟水消费与贸易研究中的新应用.自然资源学报, 2014, 29(2):355-364.[TAN S L, QIU G Y, XIONG Y J. New application of the input-output framework in the study of virtual water consumption and trade. Journal of Natural Resources, 2014, 29(2):355-364.]
[9]钱逸颖,董会娟,田旭,等.应对水资源危机的中国水足迹研究综述.生态经济, 2018, 34(7):162-166, 173.[QIAN Y Y, DONG H J, TIAN X, et al. A review of the research on China's water footprint responding to water crisis. Ecological Economy, 2018, 34(7):162-166, 173.]
[10] LEONTIEF W W. Quantitative input and output relations in the economic systems of the United States. The Review of Economic Statistics, 1936, 18(3):105-125.
[11] CHEN Z M, CHEN G Q. Virtual water accounting for the globalized world economy:National water footprint and international virtual water trade. Ecological Indicators, 2013, 28(s1):142-149.
[12] GUAN D, HUBACEK K. Assessment of regional trade and virtual water flows in China. Ecological Economics, 2007,61(1):159-170.
[13] LENZEN M, MORAN D, BHADURI A, et al. International trade of scarce water. Ecological Economics, 2013, 94:78-85.
[14]王晓萌,黄凯,杨顺顺,等.中国产业部门水足迹演变及其影响因素分析.自然资源学报, 2014, 29(12):2114-2126.[WANG X M, HUANG K, YANG S S, et al. Temporal variability and influencing factors of sectoral water footprint in China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2014, 29(12):2114-2126.]
[15] ZHAO X, LIU J, YANG H, et al. Burden shifting of water quantity and quality stress from megacity Shanghai. Water Resources Research, 2016, 52(9):6916-6927.
[16] GUO S, SHEN G, PENG Y. Embodied agricultural water use in China from 1997 to 2010. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2016, 112:3176-3184.
[17] JIANG Y, CAI W, DU P, et al. Virtual water in interprovincial trade with implications for China's water policy. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2015, 87:655-665.
[18] SHAO L, GUAN D, WU Z, et al. Multi-scale input-output analysis of consumption-based water resources:Method and application. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2017, 164:338-346.
[19] SHAO L, GUAN D, ZHANG N, et al. Carbon emissions from fossil fuel consumption of Beijing in 2012. Environmental Research Letters, 2016, 11(11):114028, Doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/11/114028.
[20] DENG G, MA Y, LI X. Regional water footprint evaluation and trend analysis of China-based on interregional input-output model. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2016, 112:4674-4682.
[21] CHEN G Q, CHEN H, CHEN Z M, et al. Low-carbon building assessment and multi-scale input-output analysis. Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation, 2011, 16(1):583-595.
[22] HAN M Y, CHEN G Q, MUSTAFA M T, et al. Embodied water for urban economy:A three-scale input-output analysis for Beijing 2010. Ecological modelling, 2015, 318:19-25.
[23] LIU S, WU X, HAN M, et al. A three-scale input-output analysis of water use in a regional economy:Hebei province in China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2017, 156:962-974.
[24] HAN M, DUNFORD M, CHEN G, et al. Global water transfers embodied in mainland China's foreign trade:Production-and consumption-based perspectives. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2017, 161:188-199.
[25]孙才志,姜坤,赵良仕.中国水资源绿色效率测度及空间格局研究.自然资源学报, 2017, 32(12):1999-2011.[SUN C Z, JIANG K, ZHAO L S. Measurement of green efficiency of water utilization and its spatial pattern in China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2017, 32(12):1999-2011.]
[26]杨胜敏.北京农业微灌技术的节水潜力分析.水利水电技术, 2011, 42(11):85-87.[YANG S M. Analysis on watersaving potential of micro-irrigation technology for agriculture in Beijing. Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, 2011, 42(11):85-87.]
[27]李瑾,孙留萍.北京发展节水农业的思考.黑龙江农业科学, 2015, 37(12):155-160.[LI J, SUN L P. Thinking of the development of water-saving agriculture in Beijing. Heilongjiang Agricultural Sciences, 2015, 37(12):155-160.]
[28]左建兵,刘昌明,郑红星.北京市电力行业用水分析与节水对策.给水排水, 2008, 34(6):56-60.[ZUO J B, LIU C M,ZHENG H X. Analysis on water consumption and water saving countermeasures of thermal power industry in Beijing.Water&Wastewater Engineering, 2008, 34(6):56-60.]
[29]叶振宇,叶素云.北京市产业对外疏解的现实思考.城市, 2015, 27(1):20-25.[YE Z Y, YE S Y. Realistic countermeasure of the external relief of Beijing's industry. City, 2015, 27(1):20-25.]
[30]金燕,王寅.北京市转口贸易动态特征研究.国际贸易问题, 2009, 34(9):38-42.[JIN Y, WANG Y. Dynamic characteristics in entrepot trade of Beijing. Journal of International Trade, 2009, 34(9):38-42.]
[31]金燕,张京宇.国有企业对北京转口贸易优势的影响:基于中国石油技术开发公司的调研分析.国际商务:对外经济贸易大学学报, 2011, 24(4):28-36.[JIN Y, ZHANG J Y. Effect of state-owned enterprise on entrepot trade of Beijing:Survey and reference based on China petroleum technology&development dorporation(CPTDC). International Business, 2011, 2404):28-36.]
[32]中国南水北调工程.京石段工程第四次向北京调水. http://www.nsbd.gov.cn/zx/mtgz/201211/t20121127_250941.html.[South-to-North Water Diversion Project. The Beijing-Shijiazhuang section of the South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Route Project transfers water into Beijing for the fourth time. http://www.nsbd.gov.cn/zx/mtgz/201211/t20121127_250941.html.]
[33]刘雅婷,王赛鸽,陈彬.基于投入产出分析的北京市虚拟水核算.生态学报, 2018, 38(6):1930-1940.[LIU Y T,WANG S G, CHEN B. Virtual water analysis for Beijing based on input-output model. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2018, 38(6):1930-1940.]
[34]孔祥永,杨强.美国“能源新现实主义”的地缘政治冲击与中国的应对.当代世界与社会主义, 2019, 137(1):149-156.[KONG X Y, YANG Q. The geopolitical impact of American"New Energy Realism"and China's response. Contemporary World and Socialism, 2019, 137(1):149-156.]
[35]何红想.中国大宗资源性产品进口规模影响因素研究.广州:暨南大学, 2016.[HE H X. Research of the influence factors of China resource products import scale:Take iron ore import as an example. Guangzhou:Jinan University, 2016.]
[36]孙康,李婷婷.中国石化产业产能过剩测度及预警.财经问题研究, 2015, 378(5):29-34.[SUN K, LI T T. The measurement and alert of Chinese petrochemical industry's excess capacity. Research on Financial and Economic Issues,2015, 378(5):29-34.]
[2] ALLAN J A. Virtual water:A strategic resource. Ground Water, 1998, 36(4):545-547.
[3]孙艳芝,鲁春霞,谢高地,等.北京市水足迹.生态学杂志, 2015, 34(2):524-531.[SUN Y Z, LU C X, XIE G D, et al.Water footprint in Beijing. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 2015, 34(2):524-531.]
[4]李锋,王春月.虚拟水贸易视角下的水资源安全研究综述.河海大学学报:哲学社会科学版, 2014, 16(2):49-54.[LI F, WANG C Y. Research review of water security from the perspective of virtual water trade. Journal of Hohai University:Philosophy and Social Sciences, 2014, 16(2):49-54.]
[5]赵旭,杨志峰,陈彬.基于投入产出分析技术的中国虚拟水贸易及消费研究.自然资源学报, 2009, 24(2):286-294.[ZHAO X, YANG Z F, CHEN B. Study on Chinese virtual water trade and consumption in an input-output framework.Journal of Natural Resources, 2009, 24(2):286-294.]
[6] YANG H, ZEHNDER A."Virtual water":An unfolding concept in integrated water resources management. Water Resources Research, 2007, 43(12):W12301, Doi:10.1029/2007WR006048.
[7] ZHAO X, CHEN B, YANG Z F. National water footprint in an input-output framework:A case study of China 2002.Ecological Modelling, 2009, 220(2):245-253.
[8]谭圣林,邱国玉,熊育久.投入产出法在虚拟水消费与贸易研究中的新应用.自然资源学报, 2014, 29(2):355-364.[TAN S L, QIU G Y, XIONG Y J. New application of the input-output framework in the study of virtual water consumption and trade. Journal of Natural Resources, 2014, 29(2):355-364.]
[9]钱逸颖,董会娟,田旭,等.应对水资源危机的中国水足迹研究综述.生态经济, 2018, 34(7):162-166, 173.[QIAN Y Y, DONG H J, TIAN X, et al. A review of the research on China's water footprint responding to water crisis. Ecological Economy, 2018, 34(7):162-166, 173.]
[10] LEONTIEF W W. Quantitative input and output relations in the economic systems of the United States. The Review of Economic Statistics, 1936, 18(3):105-125.
[11] CHEN Z M, CHEN G Q. Virtual water accounting for the globalized world economy:National water footprint and international virtual water trade. Ecological Indicators, 2013, 28(s1):142-149.
[12] GUAN D, HUBACEK K. Assessment of regional trade and virtual water flows in China. Ecological Economics, 2007,61(1):159-170.
[13] LENZEN M, MORAN D, BHADURI A, et al. International trade of scarce water. Ecological Economics, 2013, 94:78-85.
[14]王晓萌,黄凯,杨顺顺,等.中国产业部门水足迹演变及其影响因素分析.自然资源学报, 2014, 29(12):2114-2126.[WANG X M, HUANG K, YANG S S, et al. Temporal variability and influencing factors of sectoral water footprint in China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2014, 29(12):2114-2126.]
[15] ZHAO X, LIU J, YANG H, et al. Burden shifting of water quantity and quality stress from megacity Shanghai. Water Resources Research, 2016, 52(9):6916-6927.
[16] GUO S, SHEN G, PENG Y. Embodied agricultural water use in China from 1997 to 2010. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2016, 112:3176-3184.
[17] JIANG Y, CAI W, DU P, et al. Virtual water in interprovincial trade with implications for China's water policy. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2015, 87:655-665.
[18] SHAO L, GUAN D, WU Z, et al. Multi-scale input-output analysis of consumption-based water resources:Method and application. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2017, 164:338-346.
[19] SHAO L, GUAN D, ZHANG N, et al. Carbon emissions from fossil fuel consumption of Beijing in 2012. Environmental Research Letters, 2016, 11(11):114028, Doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/11/114028.
[20] DENG G, MA Y, LI X. Regional water footprint evaluation and trend analysis of China-based on interregional input-output model. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2016, 112:4674-4682.
[21] CHEN G Q, CHEN H, CHEN Z M, et al. Low-carbon building assessment and multi-scale input-output analysis. Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation, 2011, 16(1):583-595.
[22] HAN M Y, CHEN G Q, MUSTAFA M T, et al. Embodied water for urban economy:A three-scale input-output analysis for Beijing 2010. Ecological modelling, 2015, 318:19-25.
[23] LIU S, WU X, HAN M, et al. A three-scale input-output analysis of water use in a regional economy:Hebei province in China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2017, 156:962-974.
[24] HAN M, DUNFORD M, CHEN G, et al. Global water transfers embodied in mainland China's foreign trade:Production-and consumption-based perspectives. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2017, 161:188-199.
[25]孙才志,姜坤,赵良仕.中国水资源绿色效率测度及空间格局研究.自然资源学报, 2017, 32(12):1999-2011.[SUN C Z, JIANG K, ZHAO L S. Measurement of green efficiency of water utilization and its spatial pattern in China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2017, 32(12):1999-2011.]
[26]杨胜敏.北京农业微灌技术的节水潜力分析.水利水电技术, 2011, 42(11):85-87.[YANG S M. Analysis on watersaving potential of micro-irrigation technology for agriculture in Beijing. Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, 2011, 42(11):85-87.]
[27]李瑾,孙留萍.北京发展节水农业的思考.黑龙江农业科学, 2015, 37(12):155-160.[LI J, SUN L P. Thinking of the development of water-saving agriculture in Beijing. Heilongjiang Agricultural Sciences, 2015, 37(12):155-160.]
[28]左建兵,刘昌明,郑红星.北京市电力行业用水分析与节水对策.给水排水, 2008, 34(6):56-60.[ZUO J B, LIU C M,ZHENG H X. Analysis on water consumption and water saving countermeasures of thermal power industry in Beijing.Water&Wastewater Engineering, 2008, 34(6):56-60.]
[29]叶振宇,叶素云.北京市产业对外疏解的现实思考.城市, 2015, 27(1):20-25.[YE Z Y, YE S Y. Realistic countermeasure of the external relief of Beijing's industry. City, 2015, 27(1):20-25.]
[30]金燕,王寅.北京市转口贸易动态特征研究.国际贸易问题, 2009, 34(9):38-42.[JIN Y, WANG Y. Dynamic characteristics in entrepot trade of Beijing. Journal of International Trade, 2009, 34(9):38-42.]
[31]金燕,张京宇.国有企业对北京转口贸易优势的影响:基于中国石油技术开发公司的调研分析.国际商务:对外经济贸易大学学报, 2011, 24(4):28-36.[JIN Y, ZHANG J Y. Effect of state-owned enterprise on entrepot trade of Beijing:Survey and reference based on China petroleum technology&development dorporation(CPTDC). International Business, 2011, 2404):28-36.]
[32]中国南水北调工程.京石段工程第四次向北京调水. http://www.nsbd.gov.cn/zx/mtgz/201211/t20121127_250941.html.[South-to-North Water Diversion Project. The Beijing-Shijiazhuang section of the South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Route Project transfers water into Beijing for the fourth time. http://www.nsbd.gov.cn/zx/mtgz/201211/t20121127_250941.html.]
[33]刘雅婷,王赛鸽,陈彬.基于投入产出分析的北京市虚拟水核算.生态学报, 2018, 38(6):1930-1940.[LIU Y T,WANG S G, CHEN B. Virtual water analysis for Beijing based on input-output model. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2018, 38(6):1930-1940.]
[34]孔祥永,杨强.美国“能源新现实主义”的地缘政治冲击与中国的应对.当代世界与社会主义, 2019, 137(1):149-156.[KONG X Y, YANG Q. The geopolitical impact of American"New Energy Realism"and China's response. Contemporary World and Socialism, 2019, 137(1):149-156.]
[35]何红想.中国大宗资源性产品进口规模影响因素研究.广州:暨南大学, 2016.[HE H X. Research of the influence factors of China resource products import scale:Take iron ore import as an example. Guangzhou:Jinan University, 2016.]
[36]孙康,李婷婷.中国石化产业产能过剩测度及预警.财经问题研究, 2015, 378(5):29-34.[SUN K, LI T T. The measurement and alert of Chinese petrochemical industry's excess capacity. Research on Financial and Economic Issues,2015, 378(5):29-34.]
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