基于克里金插值的高分辨率降水量融合方法及质量评估
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摘要
为了扩大浙江区域降水观测范围至海上区域,以浙江省研发的雷达定量估测降水(ZJ-QPE)为海上区域产品,以基于自动气象站观测的逐10分钟小时降水量作为地面观测产品,采用了克里金(Kriging)插值方法对二者进行融合试验,生成了浙江区域10分钟、0.01°×0.01°分辨率的高分辨率降水量融合产品。本文分别从产品误差的时空分布特征的融合效果以及对强降水过程监测能力等方面,对比评估了融合降水的产品质量。结果表明,该方案在陆地区域(存在站点)的地区能较好地保留地面观测信息,在海洋区域(雷达格点)则保留雷达反演的降水信息,最终形成了一套覆盖浙江及周边区域的高时空分辨率的降水格点场。
In order to expand the scope of Zhejiang area rainfall observation to the sea area, the Kriging Interpolation method is adopted to combine the Radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimate(ZJ-QPE) with the Zhejiang Precipitation Analyses, which is based on the ten-minute gauged rainfall from about 2,500 automatic weather stations(AWS), at 0.01°longitude/latitude high-resolution. The Radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimate(ZJ-QPE) is set to the first guess, while the Zhejiang Precipitation Analyses is used as observations to modify the first guess. The statistical analysis of the first guess and observations are defined based on the variety of sample data, and according to the error structure to assign weights. In this paper, the quality of merged precipitation product is assessed from the points of temporal-spatial characteristics of error, the effect of different station density, and the heavy rain process, etc. In addition, the experimental results indicate that the discussed method is effective in the combined gauge-radar high-resolution ten-minute precipitation. The merged precipitation production can well capture the gauged rainfall information, and the Radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimate Information is reserved in the sea. The combined gauge-radar high-resolution ten-minute precipitation is produced in Zhejiang and the surrounding area.
In order to expand the scope of Zhejiang area rainfall observation to the sea area, the Kriging Interpolation method is adopted to combine the Radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimate(ZJ-QPE) with the Zhejiang Precipitation Analyses, which is based on the ten-minute gauged rainfall from about 2,500 automatic weather stations(AWS), at 0.01°longitude/latitude high-resolution. The Radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimate(ZJ-QPE) is set to the first guess, while the Zhejiang Precipitation Analyses is used as observations to modify the first guess. The statistical analysis of the first guess and observations are defined based on the variety of sample data, and according to the error structure to assign weights. In this paper, the quality of merged precipitation product is assessed from the points of temporal-spatial characteristics of error, the effect of different station density, and the heavy rain process, etc. In addition, the experimental results indicate that the discussed method is effective in the combined gauge-radar high-resolution ten-minute precipitation. The merged precipitation production can well capture the gauged rainfall information, and the Radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimate Information is reserved in the sea. The combined gauge-radar high-resolution ten-minute precipitation is produced in Zhejiang and the surrounding area.
引文
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[12] 任芝花,赵平,张强,等.2010.适用于全国自动站小时降水资料的质量控制方法[J].气象,36(7): 123-132.
[13] Po D D-Y, Do M N. 2006. Directional multiscale modeling of images using the contourlet transform. IEEE Transaction on Image Processing, 15(6):1610-1620
[14] 王政权.地统计学及在生态学中的应用. 北京: 科学出版社,1999: 1-197.
[15] 林忠辉,莫兴国,李宏轩,等.中国陆地区域气象要素的空间插值.地理学报,2002, 57(1):47-56.
[2] Joyce R J, Janowiak J E, Arkin P A, et al.2004. CMORPH: A method that produces global precipitation estimates from passive microwave and infrared data at high spatial and temporal resolution. J Hydro Meteor, 5: 487-503
[3] Huffman G J, Adler R F, Bolvin D T, et al. 2007. The TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA): Quasi-global, multiyear, combined-sensor precipitation estimates at fine scales. J Hydro Meteor, 8(1):38-55
[4] Arkin P A, Xie P P. 1994. The global precipitation climatology project: First algorithm intercomparison project.Bull Amer Meteor Soc, 75(3): 401-419
[5] Ebert E E, Janowiak J E, Kidd C. 2007. Comparison of near-real-time precipitation estimates from satellite observations and numericamodels. Bull Amer Meteor Soc, 88(1): 47-64
[6] 潘旸,沈艳,宇婧婧,等.基于最优插值方法分析的中国区域地面观测与卫星反演逐时降水融合试验[J].气象学报,2012,70(6):1381-1389.
[7] JAMES W W,BRANDES E A.Radar measurement ofrainfall:A summary[J].Bulletin ofAMS,1979,60(9):1 048-1 058.
[8] CHENG M,BROWN R.Estimation ofareas—average rainfall for frontal rain using threshold method[J].Quart J R Met Soc,1993,1 19:825-844.
[9] Chapon, B., Delrieu, G., Gosset M., Berne, A. Study of the Z-R relationship sensitivity on the precipitation type using concomitant ground-based drop size distribution and vertically pointing radar measurements, Cosis.net, abstracts, ERAD3, 00057.
[10] 冀春晓,陈联寿,徐祥德,等.多普勒雷达资料动态定量估测台风小时降水量的研究[J].热带气象学报,2008,24(2):147-155.
[11] 宇婧婧,沈艳,潘旸,等.2013.概率密度匹配法对中国区域卫星降水资料的改进[J].应用气象学报,24(5):544-553.
[12] 任芝花,赵平,张强,等.2010.适用于全国自动站小时降水资料的质量控制方法[J].气象,36(7): 123-132.
[13] Po D D-Y, Do M N. 2006. Directional multiscale modeling of images using the contourlet transform. IEEE Transaction on Image Processing, 15(6):1610-1620
[14] 王政权.地统计学及在生态学中的应用. 北京: 科学出版社,1999: 1-197.
[15] 林忠辉,莫兴国,李宏轩,等.中国陆地区域气象要素的空间插值.地理学报,2002, 57(1):47-56.
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