基于本土参数的流域生态足迹评估与不确定分析
|
摘要
产量因子和均衡因子是生态足迹模型的关键参数,评估其取值的不确定性对完善生态足迹核算模型具有重要意义。以牛栏江流域为例,应用生态足迹模型评估了2014年整个流域及流域内11个区县的生态足迹与生态承载力,通过计算本土产量因子并与国内外常用值对比,进行流域生态足迹不确定性分析。研究结果表明:2014年牛栏江流域生态足迹为3521404 ghm~2(全球公顷),可利用生物承载力为2338535 ghm~2,处于不可持续发展状态,其中官渡区生态超载率最高。不同研究中均衡因子、产量因子取值差异较大,其中耕地的均衡因子最大值是最小值的4.16倍,草地的产量因子最大值是最小值的4.16倍;采用均衡因子和产量因子最大值计算所得流域生态足迹、生态承载力,生态赤字分别是最小值的2.5倍、3.9倍、1.4倍。由于牛栏江流域特殊的气候和地形以及畜牧业、渔业发展程度低,因此计算生态足迹时需要进行详细的分类,不能简单的采用全球及全国的因子。
The yield and the equivalence factor are key parameters of the ecological footprint model. It is significant to evaluate the values' uncertainties to improve the ecological footprint model. Using the Niulanjiang Watershed as a case study,this study assessed the ecological footprint and capacity of the whole watershed and its 11 counties separately through the ecological footprint model. The local yield factor was calculated and compared with the most-often used values from around the world to estimate the uncertainty of the model. The results showed that the ecological footprint of the Niulanjiang Watershed is 3521404 ghm~2,and the biological capacity is 2338535 ghm~2,indicating unsustainability. Guandu County occupies the largest ecological overshoot among the counties in the watershed. The equivalence and yield factors vary greatly in different studies. The maximum equivalence factor of cropland was 4.16 times that of the minimum,and the maximum yield factor of grassland was 4.16 times that of the minimum. The estimated ecological footprint,capacity,and overshoot using the maximum equivalence and yield factor were 2. 5 times,3. 9 times,and 1. 4 times those using the minimum respectively. Due to its special climate and topography,and the low level of development of animal husbandry and fisheries,the ecological footprint of Niulanjiang Watershed needs to be classified in detail; global and national factors cannot be applied directly.
The yield and the equivalence factor are key parameters of the ecological footprint model. It is significant to evaluate the values' uncertainties to improve the ecological footprint model. Using the Niulanjiang Watershed as a case study,this study assessed the ecological footprint and capacity of the whole watershed and its 11 counties separately through the ecological footprint model. The local yield factor was calculated and compared with the most-often used values from around the world to estimate the uncertainty of the model. The results showed that the ecological footprint of the Niulanjiang Watershed is 3521404 ghm~2,and the biological capacity is 2338535 ghm~2,indicating unsustainability. Guandu County occupies the largest ecological overshoot among the counties in the watershed. The equivalence and yield factors vary greatly in different studies. The maximum equivalence factor of cropland was 4.16 times that of the minimum,and the maximum yield factor of grassland was 4.16 times that of the minimum. The estimated ecological footprint,capacity,and overshoot using the maximum equivalence and yield factor were 2. 5 times,3. 9 times,and 1. 4 times those using the minimum respectively. Due to its special climate and topography,and the low level of development of animal husbandry and fisheries,the ecological footprint of Niulanjiang Watershed needs to be classified in detail; global and national factors cannot be applied directly.
引文
[1]张志强,孙成权,程国栋,牛文元.可持续发展研究:进展与趋向.地球科学进展,1999,14(6):589-595.
[2] Hardi P,Barg S,Hodge T. Measuring sustainable development:Review of current practice. Occasional Paper Number 17,1997.
[3] Costanza R,Daly H E. Natural capital and sustainable development. Conservation Biology,1992,6(1):37-46.
[4] Casta1eda B E. An index of sustainable economic welfare(ISEW)for Chile. Ecological Economics,1999,28(2):231-244.
[5] Rees W E,Wackernagel M. Ecological footprints and appropriated carrying capacity:measuring the natural capital requirements of the human economy. Focus,1994,6(1):45-60.
[6]徐中民,张志强,程国栋.甘肃省1998年生态足迹计算与分析.地理学报,2000,55(5):607-616.
[7] Wackernagel M,Onisto L,Bello P,Linares A C,Falfán I S L,García J M,Guerrero A I S,Guerrero M G S. National natural capital accounting with the ecological footprint concept. Ecological Economics,1999,29(3):375-390.
[8] Wackernagel M,Monfreda C,Schulz N B,Erb K H,Haberl H,Krausmann F. Calculating national and global ecological footprint time series:resolving conceptual challenges. Land Use Policy,2004,21(3):271-278.
[9] Borucke M,Moore D,Cranston G,Gracey K,Iha K,Larson J,Lazarus E,Morales J C,Wackernagel M,Galli A. Accounting for demand and supply of the biosphere's regenerative capacity:The National Footprint Accounts'underlying methodology and framework. Ecological Indicators,2013,24:518-533.
[10]徐中民,程国栋,张志强.生态足迹方法:可持续性定量研究的新方法——以张掖地区1995年的生态足迹计算为例.生态学报,2001,21(9):1484-1493.
[11]杨开忠,杨咏,陈洁.生态足迹分析理论与方法.地球科学进展,2000,15(6):630-636.
[12]刘某承,李文华.基于净初级生产力的中国各地生态足迹均衡因子测算.生态与农村环境学报,2010,26(5):401-406.
[13]陈成忠,林振山.生态足迹模型的争论与发展.生态学报,2008,28(12):6252-6263.
[14]白钰,詹望.城市尺度生态足迹模型应用中不同参数选择的影响分析.水土保持研究,2011,18(6):151-156.
[15]鲁凤,陶菲,钞振华,胡秀芳.基于净初级生产力的省公顷生态足迹模型参数的计算——以江苏省为例.地理与地理信息科学,2016,32(2):83-88.
[16]张志强,徐中民,程国栋,陈东景.中国西部12省(区市)的生态足迹.地理学报,2001,56(5):599-610.
[17]邱寿丰,朱远.基于国家生态足迹账户计算方法的福建省生态足迹研究.生态学报,2012,32(22):7124-7134.
[18]谢文瑄,黄庆旭,何春阳.山东半岛城市扩展模式与生态足迹的关系.生态学报,2017,37(3):969-978.
[19]王晓爱,陈小勇,杨君兴.中国金沙江一级支流牛栏江的鱼类区系分析.动物学研究,2009,30(5):585-592.
[20]田玲玲,罗静,董莹,刘和涛,曾菊新.湖北省生态足迹和生态承载力时空动态研究.长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(2):316-325.
[21] Monfreda C,Wackernagel M,Deumling D. Establishing national natural capital accounts based on detailed Ecological Footprint and biological capacity assessments. Land Use Policy,2004,21(3):231-246.
[22]刘某承,李文华.基于净初级生产力的中国生态足迹均衡因子测算.自然资源学报,2009,24(9):1550-1559.
[23]张恒义,刘卫东,王世忠,单娜娜,梁红梅.“省公顷”生态足迹模型中均衡因子及产量因子的计算——以浙江省为例.自然资源学报,2009,24(1):82-92.
[24]刘某承,李文华,谢高地.基于净初级生产力的中国生态足迹产量因子测算.生态学杂志,2010,29(3):592-597.
[25]卞子浩,赵永华,王晓峰,奥勇.陕西省生态足迹及其驱动力.生态学杂志,2016,35(5):1316-1322.
[26] G9ssling S,Hansson C B,H9rstmeier O,Saggel S. Ecological footprint analysis as a tool to assess tourism sustainability. Ecological Economics,2002,43(2/3):199-211.
[27]张星星,曾辉.珠江三角洲城市群三维生态足迹动态变化及驱动力分析.环境科学学报,2017,37(2):771-778.
[28]潘洪义,朱晚秋,崔绿叶,冯茂秋,朱芳.成都市人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力空间分布差异.生态学报,2017,37(19):6335-6345.
[29]徐中民,张志强,程国栋,陈东景.中国1999年生态足迹计算与发展能力分析.应用生态学报,2003,14(2):280-285.
[30]张志强,徐中民,程国栋.生态足迹的概念及计算模型.生态经济,2000,(10):8-10.
[31] Venetoulis J,Talberth J. Refining the ecological footprint. Environment,Development and Sustainability,2008,10(4):441-469.
[32]徐中民,陈东景,张志强,程国栋.中国1999年的生态足迹分析.土壤学报,2002,39(3):441-445.
[33]王书华,毛汉英,王忠静.生态足迹研究的国内外近期进展.自然资源学报,2002,17(6):776-782.
[34]郭秀锐,杨居荣,毛显强.城市生态足迹计算与分析——以广州为例.地理研究,2003,22(5):654-662.
[35]刘宇辉,彭希哲.中国历年生态足迹计算与发展可持续性评估.生态学报,2004,24(10):2257-2262.
[36]李金平,王志石.澳门2001年生态足迹分析.自然资源学报,2003,18(2):197-203.
[37]陈东景,徐中民,程国栋,张志强.中国西北地区的生态足迹.冰川冻土,2001,23(2):164-169.
[38]熊德国,鲜学福,姜永东.生态足迹理论在区域可持续发展评价中的应用及改进.地理科学进展,2003,22(6):618-626.
[39]龙爱华,张志强,苏志勇.生态足迹评介及国际研究前沿.地球科学进展,2004,19(6):971-981.
[40]陈东景,徐中民.生态足迹理论在我国干旱区的应用与探讨——以新疆为例.干旱区地理,2001,24(4):305-309.
[41]徐中民,程国栋,张志强.生态足迹方法的理论解析.中国人口·资源与环境,2006,16(6):69-78.
[42]陈敏,张丽君,王如松,怀保光. 1978年—2003年中国生态足迹动态分析.资源科学,2005,27(6):132-139.
[43]章锦河,张捷,梁玥琳,李娜,刘泽华.九寨沟旅游生态足迹与生态补偿分析.自然资源学报,2005,20(5):735-744.
[44]赵先贵,肖玲,兰叶霞,王书转,马彩虹.陕西省生态足迹和生态承载力动态研究.中国农业科学,2005,38(4):746-753.
[45]岳东霞,李自珍,惠苍.甘肃省生态足迹和生态承载力发展趋势研究.西北植物学报,2004,24(3):454-463.
[46]白艳莹,王效科,欧阳志云,苗鸿.苏锡常地区生态足迹分析.资源科学,2003,25(6):31-37.
[2] Hardi P,Barg S,Hodge T. Measuring sustainable development:Review of current practice. Occasional Paper Number 17,1997.
[3] Costanza R,Daly H E. Natural capital and sustainable development. Conservation Biology,1992,6(1):37-46.
[4] Casta1eda B E. An index of sustainable economic welfare(ISEW)for Chile. Ecological Economics,1999,28(2):231-244.
[5] Rees W E,Wackernagel M. Ecological footprints and appropriated carrying capacity:measuring the natural capital requirements of the human economy. Focus,1994,6(1):45-60.
[6]徐中民,张志强,程国栋.甘肃省1998年生态足迹计算与分析.地理学报,2000,55(5):607-616.
[7] Wackernagel M,Onisto L,Bello P,Linares A C,Falfán I S L,García J M,Guerrero A I S,Guerrero M G S. National natural capital accounting with the ecological footprint concept. Ecological Economics,1999,29(3):375-390.
[8] Wackernagel M,Monfreda C,Schulz N B,Erb K H,Haberl H,Krausmann F. Calculating national and global ecological footprint time series:resolving conceptual challenges. Land Use Policy,2004,21(3):271-278.
[9] Borucke M,Moore D,Cranston G,Gracey K,Iha K,Larson J,Lazarus E,Morales J C,Wackernagel M,Galli A. Accounting for demand and supply of the biosphere's regenerative capacity:The National Footprint Accounts'underlying methodology and framework. Ecological Indicators,2013,24:518-533.
[10]徐中民,程国栋,张志强.生态足迹方法:可持续性定量研究的新方法——以张掖地区1995年的生态足迹计算为例.生态学报,2001,21(9):1484-1493.
[11]杨开忠,杨咏,陈洁.生态足迹分析理论与方法.地球科学进展,2000,15(6):630-636.
[12]刘某承,李文华.基于净初级生产力的中国各地生态足迹均衡因子测算.生态与农村环境学报,2010,26(5):401-406.
[13]陈成忠,林振山.生态足迹模型的争论与发展.生态学报,2008,28(12):6252-6263.
[14]白钰,詹望.城市尺度生态足迹模型应用中不同参数选择的影响分析.水土保持研究,2011,18(6):151-156.
[15]鲁凤,陶菲,钞振华,胡秀芳.基于净初级生产力的省公顷生态足迹模型参数的计算——以江苏省为例.地理与地理信息科学,2016,32(2):83-88.
[16]张志强,徐中民,程国栋,陈东景.中国西部12省(区市)的生态足迹.地理学报,2001,56(5):599-610.
[17]邱寿丰,朱远.基于国家生态足迹账户计算方法的福建省生态足迹研究.生态学报,2012,32(22):7124-7134.
[18]谢文瑄,黄庆旭,何春阳.山东半岛城市扩展模式与生态足迹的关系.生态学报,2017,37(3):969-978.
[19]王晓爱,陈小勇,杨君兴.中国金沙江一级支流牛栏江的鱼类区系分析.动物学研究,2009,30(5):585-592.
[20]田玲玲,罗静,董莹,刘和涛,曾菊新.湖北省生态足迹和生态承载力时空动态研究.长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(2):316-325.
[21] Monfreda C,Wackernagel M,Deumling D. Establishing national natural capital accounts based on detailed Ecological Footprint and biological capacity assessments. Land Use Policy,2004,21(3):231-246.
[22]刘某承,李文华.基于净初级生产力的中国生态足迹均衡因子测算.自然资源学报,2009,24(9):1550-1559.
[23]张恒义,刘卫东,王世忠,单娜娜,梁红梅.“省公顷”生态足迹模型中均衡因子及产量因子的计算——以浙江省为例.自然资源学报,2009,24(1):82-92.
[24]刘某承,李文华,谢高地.基于净初级生产力的中国生态足迹产量因子测算.生态学杂志,2010,29(3):592-597.
[25]卞子浩,赵永华,王晓峰,奥勇.陕西省生态足迹及其驱动力.生态学杂志,2016,35(5):1316-1322.
[26] G9ssling S,Hansson C B,H9rstmeier O,Saggel S. Ecological footprint analysis as a tool to assess tourism sustainability. Ecological Economics,2002,43(2/3):199-211.
[27]张星星,曾辉.珠江三角洲城市群三维生态足迹动态变化及驱动力分析.环境科学学报,2017,37(2):771-778.
[28]潘洪义,朱晚秋,崔绿叶,冯茂秋,朱芳.成都市人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力空间分布差异.生态学报,2017,37(19):6335-6345.
[29]徐中民,张志强,程国栋,陈东景.中国1999年生态足迹计算与发展能力分析.应用生态学报,2003,14(2):280-285.
[30]张志强,徐中民,程国栋.生态足迹的概念及计算模型.生态经济,2000,(10):8-10.
[31] Venetoulis J,Talberth J. Refining the ecological footprint. Environment,Development and Sustainability,2008,10(4):441-469.
[32]徐中民,陈东景,张志强,程国栋.中国1999年的生态足迹分析.土壤学报,2002,39(3):441-445.
[33]王书华,毛汉英,王忠静.生态足迹研究的国内外近期进展.自然资源学报,2002,17(6):776-782.
[34]郭秀锐,杨居荣,毛显强.城市生态足迹计算与分析——以广州为例.地理研究,2003,22(5):654-662.
[35]刘宇辉,彭希哲.中国历年生态足迹计算与发展可持续性评估.生态学报,2004,24(10):2257-2262.
[36]李金平,王志石.澳门2001年生态足迹分析.自然资源学报,2003,18(2):197-203.
[37]陈东景,徐中民,程国栋,张志强.中国西北地区的生态足迹.冰川冻土,2001,23(2):164-169.
[38]熊德国,鲜学福,姜永东.生态足迹理论在区域可持续发展评价中的应用及改进.地理科学进展,2003,22(6):618-626.
[39]龙爱华,张志强,苏志勇.生态足迹评介及国际研究前沿.地球科学进展,2004,19(6):971-981.
[40]陈东景,徐中民.生态足迹理论在我国干旱区的应用与探讨——以新疆为例.干旱区地理,2001,24(4):305-309.
[41]徐中民,程国栋,张志强.生态足迹方法的理论解析.中国人口·资源与环境,2006,16(6):69-78.
[42]陈敏,张丽君,王如松,怀保光. 1978年—2003年中国生态足迹动态分析.资源科学,2005,27(6):132-139.
[43]章锦河,张捷,梁玥琳,李娜,刘泽华.九寨沟旅游生态足迹与生态补偿分析.自然资源学报,2005,20(5):735-744.
[44]赵先贵,肖玲,兰叶霞,王书转,马彩虹.陕西省生态足迹和生态承载力动态研究.中国农业科学,2005,38(4):746-753.
[45]岳东霞,李自珍,惠苍.甘肃省生态足迹和生态承载力发展趋势研究.西北植物学报,2004,24(3):454-463.
[46]白艳莹,王效科,欧阳志云,苗鸿.苏锡常地区生态足迹分析.资源科学,2003,25(6):31-37.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |