公共基础设施资本存量对区域经济增长的影响——以长江经济带为例
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摘要
以柯布-道格拉斯生产函数模型为基础,将公共基础设施资本存量引入经济增长模型,采用空间面板数据模型效应分析研究方法,利用长江经济带2003～2016年统计数据,考察了不同类型的公共基础设施资本存量在不同时期与区域经济增长的关系。实证结果表明:(1)长江经济带各省市经济增长存在显著的空间依赖特征,2008年之后空间依赖程度及其显著度逐渐下降。(2)不同类型的公共基础设施资本存量,对区域经济增长的空间效应存在明显区别。能源基础设施资本存量显著地促进了全域经济增长,总效应为0.515;交通基础设施资本存量显著拉动本地经济增长,直接效应为0.067 8,间接效应不明显;水利环境基础设施资本存量抑制本地经济增长,拉动邻接地区经济增长,直接效应为-0.047 3,间接效应为0.165。(3)在不同时期,随着公共基础设施资本存量的不断累积,其对经济增长的空间效应发生了明显变化。在2003～2008年时间段和2009～2016年时间段,能源基础设施资本存量对区域经济增长的空间效应由正转负,表明其存量已经越过了最佳投资规模,出现了规模不经济现象;交通和水利环境类基础设施资本存量在两个时间段的对比表明其对于经济增长的空间效应随着投资量的增加逐渐加强。
Based on the Cobb-Douglas production function model, this paper introduces the public infrastructure capital stock into the economic growth model, uses the spatial panel data model effect analysis method, and uses the statistics of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2003 to 2016 to examine different types of public. The relationship between infrastructure capital stock and regional economic growth in different periods. The empirical results show that:(1) The economic growth of the provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt has significant spatial dependence characteristics. After 2008, the degree of spatial dependence and its significance gradually declined.(2) Different types of public infrastructure capital stocks have significant differences in the spatial effects of regional economic growth. The energy infrastructure capital stock significantly promoted the global economic growth with a total effect of 0.515; the transportation infrastructure capital stock significantly boosted the local economic growth, the direct effect was 0.067 8, the indirect effect was not obvious; the water environment infrastructure capital stock inhibited the local economic growth, Pulling the economic growth in the adjacent region, the direct effect is-0.047 3, and the indirect effect is 0.165.(3) In different periods, with the accumulation of public infrastructure capital stock, its spatial effect on economic growth has changed significantly. In the period 2003-2008 and the period of 2009-2016, the spatial effect of the capital stock of energy infrastructure on regional economic growth has been turned negative, indicating that its stock has exceeded the optimal investment scale, and there is a phenomenon of scale uneconomic; The comparison of the capital stock of transportation and water environment infrastructure in two time periods shows that its spatial effect on economic growth is gradually increasing with the increase of investment volume.
Based on the Cobb-Douglas production function model, this paper introduces the public infrastructure capital stock into the economic growth model, uses the spatial panel data model effect analysis method, and uses the statistics of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2003 to 2016 to examine different types of public. The relationship between infrastructure capital stock and regional economic growth in different periods. The empirical results show that:(1) The economic growth of the provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt has significant spatial dependence characteristics. After 2008, the degree of spatial dependence and its significance gradually declined.(2) Different types of public infrastructure capital stocks have significant differences in the spatial effects of regional economic growth. The energy infrastructure capital stock significantly promoted the global economic growth with a total effect of 0.515; the transportation infrastructure capital stock significantly boosted the local economic growth, the direct effect was 0.067 8, the indirect effect was not obvious; the water environment infrastructure capital stock inhibited the local economic growth, Pulling the economic growth in the adjacent region, the direct effect is-0.047 3, and the indirect effect is 0.165.(3) In different periods, with the accumulation of public infrastructure capital stock, its spatial effect on economic growth has changed significantly. In the period 2003-2008 and the period of 2009-2016, the spatial effect of the capital stock of energy infrastructure on regional economic growth has been turned negative, indicating that its stock has exceeded the optimal investment scale, and there is a phenomenon of scale uneconomic; The comparison of the capital stock of transportation and water environment infrastructure in two time periods shows that its spatial effect on economic growth is gradually increasing with the increase of investment volume.
引文
[1] 刘生龙,郑世林.交通基础设施跨区域的溢出效应研究——来自中国省级面板数据的实证证据[J].产业经济研究,2013(4):59-69.ZHENG S L,LIU S L.Research on the cross-regional economic growth spillover effects of infrastructures:The empirical results come from China’s provincial panel data[J].Industrial Economics Research,2013(4):59-69
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[11] 李强.基础设施投资、教育支出与经济增长基础设施投资“挤出效应”的实证分析[J].财经理论与实践,2012(3):72-77.LI Q.Infrastructure investment,education expenditure and economic growth:the empirical analysis of “crowding-out effect” of infrastructure investment[J].The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics,2012(3):72-77
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[13] 孙早,杨光,李康.基础设施投资对经济增长的贡献:存在拐点吗——来自中国的经验证据[J].财经科学,2014(6):75-84.SUN Z,YANG G,LI K.Is there a turning point in the contribution of infrastructure investment on economic growth:Evidence from China’s economic development[J].Finance & Economics,2014(6):75-84
[14] BAVAUD F.Models for spatial weights:A systematic look[J].Geographical Analysis,1998,30(2):153-171.
[15] 姜轶嵩,朱喜.中国的经济增长与基础设施建设[J].管理评论,2004(9):57-62.JIANG Y S,ZHU X.Research on infrastructure capital and economic growth[J].Management Review,2004(9):57-62
[16] JAMES L,ROBERT K P.Introduction to spatial econometrics[M].Beijing University Press,2014.
[17] 张军,章元.对中国资本存量K的再估计[J].经济研究,2003(7):35-43.ZHANG J,ZHANG Y.Recalculating the capital of china and a review of li and Tang’s Article[J].Economic Research Journal,2003(7):35-43
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[19] 徐现祥,舒元.中国省区经济增长分布的演进(1978-1998)[J].经济学(季刊),2004(2):619-638.XU X X,SHU Y.Growth dynamics in Chinese provinces (1978-1998)[J].China Economic Quarterly,2004(2):619-638
[20] ELHORST J P.Spatial econometrics:From cross-sectional data to spatial panels[M].China Renmin University Press,2015.
[21] 丁黄艳.长江经济带基础设施发展与经济增长的空间特征——基于空间计量与面板门槛模型的实证研究[J].统计与信息论坛,2016,31(1):24-32.DING H Y.Spatial patterns between infrastructure development and economic growth in Yangtze River Economic Belt:Based on empirical analysis of spatial econometrics and panel threshold model[J].Statistics & Information Forum,2016,31(1):24-32
[22] 廖茂林,许召元,胡翠,等.基础设施投资是否还能促进经济增长?——基于1994～2016年省际面板数据的实证检验[J].管理世界,2018,34(5):63-73.LIAO M L,XU Z Y,HU C,et al.Will infrastructure investment still promote economic growth?Empirical research based on provincial panel data from 1994 to 2015[J].Management World,2018,34(5):63-73
[23] 张勋,张睿.水利基础设施的经济增长效应及其作用机制[J].财政研究,2017(10):30-42.ZHANG X,ZHANG R.The impact of water conservancy infrastructure on economic growth and its mechanism[J].Public Finance Research,2017(10):30-42
[24] 王智勇.人口集聚与区域经济增长——对威廉姆森假说的一个检验[J].南京社会科学,2018(3):60-69.WANG Z Y.Population agglomeration and regional economic development:A test for williamson’s hypothesis under Chinese circumstance[J].Nanjing Journal of Social Sciences,2018(3):60-69.
[2] ROSENSTEIN-RODAN P N.Problems of industrialization of eastern and south-eastern europe[J].Economic Journal,1943,53(210-211):202-211.
[3] ASCHAUER D A.Is public expenditure productive?[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1989,23(2):177-200.
[4] 张学良.中国交通基础设施与经济增长的区域比较分析[J].财经研究,2007(8):51-63.ZHANG X L.Regional comparative analysis on the relationship bet ween transport infrastructure and economic growth in China[J].Journal of Finance and Economics,2007(8):51-63
[5] BONAGLIA F,FERRARA E L,MARCELLINO M.Public capital and economic performance:Evidence from Italy[J].Giornale Degli Economisti E Annali Di Economia,2000,60 (Anno 113)(2):221-244.
[6] BOARNET M G.Spillovers and the locational effects of public infrastructure[J].Journal of Regional Science,1998,38(3):381-400.
[7] 李献国,董杨.基础设施投资规模与经济增长——基于1993～2014年东、中、西部省级面板数据分析[J].宏观经济研究.2017(8):86-93.LI X G,DONG Y.Investment scale of infrastructure and economic growth:Based on dynamic panel data of provinces from east,middle and west part of China during 1993-2014[J].Macroeconomics,2017(8):86-93
[8] BOUGHEAS S,DEMETRIADES P O,MAMUNEAS T P.Infrastructure,specialization,and economic growth[J].Canadian Journal of Economics/revue Canadienne Déconomique,2010,33(2):506-522.
[9] 张学良.中国区域经济收敛的空间计量分析——基于长三角1993～2006年132个县市区的实证研究[J].财经研究,2009(7):100-109.ZHANG X L.A Spatial econometrics analysis of regional economic convergence in China:Based on the empirical study of 132 counties,cities or regions in Yangtze River Delta from 1993 to 2006[J].Public Finance,2009 (7):100-109
[10] 张学良.中国交通基础设施促进了区域经济增长吗——兼论交通基础设施的空间溢出效应[J].中国社会科学,2012(3):60-77.ZHANG X L.Has transport infrastructure promoted regional economic growth?With an analysis of the spatial spollover effects of transport infrastructure[J].Social Sciences in China,2012(3):60-77
[11] 李强.基础设施投资、教育支出与经济增长基础设施投资“挤出效应”的实证分析[J].财经理论与实践,2012(3):72-77.LI Q.Infrastructure investment,education expenditure and economic growth:the empirical analysis of “crowding-out effect” of infrastructure investment[J].The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics,2012(3):72-77
[12] 李强,郑江淮.基础设施投资真的能促进经济增长吗?——基于基础设施投资“挤出效应”的实证分析[J].产业经济研究,2012(3):50-58.LI Q,ZHENG J H.The effect of infrastructure investment and education expenditure on economic growth:The empirical analysis of infrastructure investment “Crowding-out Effect”[J].Industrial Economics Research,2012(3):50-58
[13] 孙早,杨光,李康.基础设施投资对经济增长的贡献:存在拐点吗——来自中国的经验证据[J].财经科学,2014(6):75-84.SUN Z,YANG G,LI K.Is there a turning point in the contribution of infrastructure investment on economic growth:Evidence from China’s economic development[J].Finance & Economics,2014(6):75-84
[14] BAVAUD F.Models for spatial weights:A systematic look[J].Geographical Analysis,1998,30(2):153-171.
[15] 姜轶嵩,朱喜.中国的经济增长与基础设施建设[J].管理评论,2004(9):57-62.JIANG Y S,ZHU X.Research on infrastructure capital and economic growth[J].Management Review,2004(9):57-62
[16] JAMES L,ROBERT K P.Introduction to spatial econometrics[M].Beijing University Press,2014.
[17] 张军,章元.对中国资本存量K的再估计[J].经济研究,2003(7):35-43.ZHANG J,ZHANG Y.Recalculating the capital of china and a review of li and Tang’s Article[J].Economic Research Journal,2003(7):35-43
[18] 单豪杰.中国资本存量K的再估算:1952～2006年[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008(10):17-31.SHAN H J.Reestimating the capital stock of China:1952～ 2006[J].The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics,2008(10):17-31
[19] 徐现祥,舒元.中国省区经济增长分布的演进(1978-1998)[J].经济学(季刊),2004(2):619-638.XU X X,SHU Y.Growth dynamics in Chinese provinces (1978-1998)[J].China Economic Quarterly,2004(2):619-638
[20] ELHORST J P.Spatial econometrics:From cross-sectional data to spatial panels[M].China Renmin University Press,2015.
[21] 丁黄艳.长江经济带基础设施发展与经济增长的空间特征——基于空间计量与面板门槛模型的实证研究[J].统计与信息论坛,2016,31(1):24-32.DING H Y.Spatial patterns between infrastructure development and economic growth in Yangtze River Economic Belt:Based on empirical analysis of spatial econometrics and panel threshold model[J].Statistics & Information Forum,2016,31(1):24-32
[22] 廖茂林,许召元,胡翠,等.基础设施投资是否还能促进经济增长?——基于1994～2016年省际面板数据的实证检验[J].管理世界,2018,34(5):63-73.LIAO M L,XU Z Y,HU C,et al.Will infrastructure investment still promote economic growth?Empirical research based on provincial panel data from 1994 to 2015[J].Management World,2018,34(5):63-73
[23] 张勋,张睿.水利基础设施的经济增长效应及其作用机制[J].财政研究,2017(10):30-42.ZHANG X,ZHANG R.The impact of water conservancy infrastructure on economic growth and its mechanism[J].Public Finance Research,2017(10):30-42
[24] 王智勇.人口集聚与区域经济增长——对威廉姆森假说的一个检验[J].南京社会科学,2018(3):60-69.WANG Z Y.Population agglomeration and regional economic development:A test for williamson’s hypothesis under Chinese circumstance[J].Nanjing Journal of Social Sciences,2018(3):60-69.
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