气候变化背景下甘肃省主要气象灾害综合损失特征
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摘要
甘肃省气候类型复杂,气象灾害种类繁多,随着以变暖为主的气候变化的背景下,气象灾害造成的损失越来越大,灾害风险特征的认识及其对气候变化的响应亟待解决。鉴于此,本研究基于甘肃省1961以来主要气象站灾情实况资料,构建灾害风险指数-综合损失率,系统分析了甘肃省干旱、暴雨洪涝、风雹和低温灾害的时空变化特征,并就气候变化对其的影响做了探讨。结果表明:1961年以来,各种灾害风险发展具有面积增大和危害程度加剧的趋势。干旱是风险最大和最严重的灾害类型,其次是风雹和暴雨洪涝,低温冷害风险相对最小,其中干旱受灾、成灾和绝收率(25.2%、14.1%和2.2%)均明显高于全国平均水平(15.0%、8.1%和1.7%),增加速率(0.16%/10a、0.15%/10a和0.05%/10a)也均高于全国平均水平。风雹、暴雨洪涝灾害和低温冷害增加速率分别为0.29%/10a、0.45%/10和0.72%/10a。各年代际灾害风险变化特征具有明显的差异性。气候变化后,甘肃主要气象灾害风险均增加。
The climate in Gansu province is complex. There are many different kinds of meteorological disasters, as is given priority to the warming under the background of climate change, The losses caused by meteorological disasters are more and more large, the understanding of the characteristics of disaster risk and their response to climate change are needed. Based on the main weather disaster data of Gansu province in 1961, comprehensive disaster risk index-loss rates were established to analyze systematically the variation characteristics of drought, rainstorm floods, sand storm and low-temperature disasters in Gansu province, and the impact of climate change on those disasters was discussed. Results show that since 1961, the largest agricultural drought disaster risk was drought, followed by sand storms and floods; low temperature chilling injury risk was relatively the minimum. Among them, drought induced disaster suffering, disaster realizing and absolute yield lost rates(25.2%, 14.1% and 2.2%) were significantly higher than the national average(15.0%, 8.1% and 1.7%), and the increase rates(0.16%/10 a, 0.15%/10 a and 0.05%/10 a) were also higher than the national average. The comprehensive loss rate of storm hail, rainstorm flood and low temperature cold damage also showed an increasing trend, with an increase rates of 0.29%/10 a, 0.45%/10 and 0.72%/10 a respectively. The variation characteristics of interdecadal disaster risk had obvious differences, and the risk of drought disaster increased uniformly. The risks of major meteorological disasters in Gansu increased due to the climate change.
The climate in Gansu province is complex. There are many different kinds of meteorological disasters, as is given priority to the warming under the background of climate change, The losses caused by meteorological disasters are more and more large, the understanding of the characteristics of disaster risk and their response to climate change are needed. Based on the main weather disaster data of Gansu province in 1961, comprehensive disaster risk index-loss rates were established to analyze systematically the variation characteristics of drought, rainstorm floods, sand storm and low-temperature disasters in Gansu province, and the impact of climate change on those disasters was discussed. Results show that since 1961, the largest agricultural drought disaster risk was drought, followed by sand storms and floods; low temperature chilling injury risk was relatively the minimum. Among them, drought induced disaster suffering, disaster realizing and absolute yield lost rates(25.2%, 14.1% and 2.2%) were significantly higher than the national average(15.0%, 8.1% and 1.7%), and the increase rates(0.16%/10 a, 0.15%/10 a and 0.05%/10 a) were also higher than the national average. The comprehensive loss rate of storm hail, rainstorm flood and low temperature cold damage also showed an increasing trend, with an increase rates of 0.29%/10 a, 0.45%/10 and 0.72%/10 a respectively. The variation characteristics of interdecadal disaster risk had obvious differences, and the risk of drought disaster increased uniformly. The risks of major meteorological disasters in Gansu increased due to the climate change.
引文
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[3] Zhang Q, Han L Y, Lin J J, et al. North-south differences In Chinese agricultural losses due to climate-change-influenced droughts[J].Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2018, 131:719-732.
[4] Huang J P, Ji M X, Xie Y K, et al. Global semi-arid climate change over last 60 years[J].Climate Dynamics,2016,46:3-4.
[5] Huang J P, Guan X D, Ji F. Enhanced cold-season warming in semi-arid regions[J]. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2012, 12: 5391-5398.
[6] IPCC. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M].Cambridge & New York: Cambridge University Press,2014.
[7] Li Y, Li L Q, Zhang Q, et al. Influence of temperature on the heavy metals accumulation of five vegetable species in semiarid area of northwest China[J].Chemistry and Ecology, 2013, 29 (4):353-365.
[8] Wang H L, Gan Y T, Wang R Y, et al. Phenological trends in winter wheat and spring cotton in response to climate changes in northwest China[J].Agricultural and Forests Meteorology, 2008, 148:1242-1251.
[9] Wang R Y,Zhang Q,Wang Y L, et al.Response of corn to climate warming in arid areas in northwest china[J].Acta Botanica Sinica,2004, 46(12) :1387-1392.
[10] Yao Y B,Wang R Y,Yang J H,et al.Changes in terrestrial surface dry and wet conditions on the Loess Plateau (China) during the last half century[J]. Journal of Arid Land,2013,5(1):15-24.
[11] Zhao H, Wang R Y, Ma P L, et al. Ridge-furrow with full plastic film mulching improves water use efficiency and tuber yields of potato in a semiarid rainfed ecosystem[J].Field Crops Research,2014,161:137-148.
[12] Zhao H, Xiong Y C, Li F M, et al. Plastic film mulch for half growing-season maximized WUE and yield of potato via moisture temperature improvement in a semi-arid agroecosystem[J]. Agricultural Water Management, 2012, 104:68-78.
[13] 李裕,张强,王润元,等.气候变化对食品安全的影响[J].干旱气象,2009, 27(4) :367-372.
[14] 张强,张存杰,白虎志,等. 西北地区气候变化新动态及对干旱环境的影响-总体暖于化,局部出现暖湿迹象[J].干旱气象,2010,28(1) :1-7.
[15] 张强,王润元,邓振镛,等.中国西北干旱气候变化对农业与生态影响及对策[M].北京:气象出版社,2012.
[16] 韩兰英,张强,赵红岩,等.甘肃省农业干旱灾损特征及其对气候变暖的响应[J].中国沙漠,2016,36(3):767-776.
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