整体性政府视角下高温热浪应急管理的协同联动机制研究
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摘要
针对我国高温热浪灾害处置普遍存在的问题,引入整体性治理和自组织理论,构建高温热浪应急管理的全维度结构模型,构建一个多层级、跨部门、全流程的处置平台,探索应急管理的协同联动机制;系统梳理分阶段、多尺度的应急处置和全流程、多系统的风险控制,以此揭示平台的时空运行序列。基于现行行政体制,通过信息传递网络串联多元应急力量,实现全流程跨区域联防和多部门协同的统一,为提升区域高温热浪的综合防范能力提供参考。
The paper first analyzed the pervasive problems in the emergency disposal of high temperature heat waves meteorological disasters in China. Secondly,it introduced the holistic governance and self-organization theory,constructed a full-dimensional structural model of emergency management of high temperature heat wave and proposed a multi-level,trans-department and the whole process disposal platform,thus to explore the synergistic linkage mode of high-temperature heat wave's emergency management. At the same time,according to the characteristics of high-temperature heat wave space-time evolution,the staged,targeted management and the whole process,multi-system risk control were combed,in order to reveal the platform's spatio-temporal running sequence.The model under the holistic governance perspective is based on the existing administrative system. It connects emergency forces through the information transmission networks to achieve the unity of cross-regional joint defense and multi-sector coordination,and provides reference for improving the comprehensive prevention capability of regional high temperature heat wave.
The paper first analyzed the pervasive problems in the emergency disposal of high temperature heat waves meteorological disasters in China. Secondly,it introduced the holistic governance and self-organization theory,constructed a full-dimensional structural model of emergency management of high temperature heat wave and proposed a multi-level,trans-department and the whole process disposal platform,thus to explore the synergistic linkage mode of high-temperature heat wave's emergency management. At the same time,according to the characteristics of high-temperature heat wave space-time evolution,the staged,targeted management and the whole process,multi-system risk control were combed,in order to reveal the platform's spatio-temporal running sequence.The model under the holistic governance perspective is based on the existing administrative system. It connects emergency forces through the information transmission networks to achieve the unity of cross-regional joint defense and multi-sector coordination,and provides reference for improving the comprehensive prevention capability of regional high temperature heat wave.
引文
[1]张书余.干旱气象学[M].北京:气象出版社,2008.
[2] WMO(World Meteorological Organization). The global climate2001-2010:a decade of climate extremes summary report.[EB/OL].(2013-05-24)[2018-08-05]. https://library. wmo. int/pmb_ged/wmo_1119_en. pdf.
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[5]中国国家标准化管理委员会. GB/T 29457-2012高温热浪等级[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2013:1-3.
[6] Hsiang S M,Burke M,Miguel E. Quantifying the influence of climate on human conflict[J]. Science,2013,341(6151):1212-1226.[2018-10-02]. http://science. sciencemag. org/content/341/6151/1235367. DOI:10. 1126/science. 1235367.
[7]杨红龙,许吟隆,陶生才,等.高温热浪脆弱性与适应性研究进展[J].科技导报,2010,28(19):98-102.
[8]叶殿秀,尹继福,陈正洪,等. 1961-2010年我国夏季高温热浪的时空变化特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2013,9(1):15-20.
[9]孙智辉,王春乙.气候变化对中国农业的影响[J].科技导报,2010,28(4):110-117.
[10]周雪光.芝加哥“热浪”的社会学启迪———《热浪:芝加哥灾难的社会解剖》读后感[J].社会学研究,2006(4):214-224.
[11]埃里克·克里纳伯格.热浪:芝加哥灾难的社会剖析[M].北京:商务印书馆,2014.
[12] Poumadère M,Mays C,Mer S L,et al. The 2003 heat wave in France:dangerous climate change here and now[J]. Risk Analysis,2005,25(6):1483-1494.
[13]王伟光郑国光. 2013气候变化绿皮书———应对气候变化报告[M].北京:社科文献出版社,2013.
[14]刘绿柳,孙林海,廖要明,等.国家级极端高温短期气候预测系统的研制及应用[J].气象,2008,34(10):102-107.
[15]宋晨阳,王锋,张韧,等.气候变化背景下我国城市高温热浪的风险分析与评估[J].灾害学,2016,31(4):201-206.
[16]张书娟,尹占娥,刘耀龙,等.基于GIS的华东地区高温灾害危险性分析[J].灾害学,2011,26(2):59-65.
[17]姬兴杰,朱业玉,顾万龙,等. 1971-2010年河南省夏季高温日数的变化趋势分析[J].灾害学,2012,27(3):59-63.
[18]范碧航,李宁,张继权,等.城市高温灾害性天气影响分析与危害评估———以长春市为例[J].灾害学,2011,26(4):93-97.
[19]秦大河.中国极端天气气候事件和灾害风险管理与适应国家评估报告[M].北京:科学出版社,2015.
[20]叶殿秀,尹继福,陈正洪,等. 1961-2010年我国夏季高温热浪的时空变化特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2013,9(1):15-20.
[21]吴凯,张云权,朱慈华,等.高温热浪与武汉市江岸区居民卒中死亡关系的时间序列分析[J].中华心血管病杂志,2015,43(12):1092-1096.
[22]薛莉,胡文琦,魏然,等. 2011-2013年高温热浪对苍南县高血压门诊就诊量的影响[J]. 2018,山东大学学报(医学版),2018,56(8):63-69.
[23]张安然,胡文琦,李佳蔚,等.热浪对居民循环系统疾病死亡影响的病例交叉研究[J]. 2018,56(8):56-62
[24]张霞,刘起勇.高温热浪对心脑血管病影响研究进展[J].中国公共卫生,2014,30(2):242-243.
[25] Dessai S. Heat stress and mortality in Lisbon part I. Model construction and validation[J]. International Journal of Biometeorology,2002,47(1):6-12.
[26] Oechsli F W,Buechley R W. Excess mortality associated with three Los Angeles September hot spells[J]. Environmental Research,1970,3(4):277-84.
[27]谈建国.气候变暖、城市热岛与高温热浪及其健康影响研究[D〗.南京:南京信息工程大学,2008.
[28]甄国新,赵金辉,张永,等.北京市顺义区居民热浪感知度及影响因素分析[J].卫生研究,2015,44(4):684-688.
[29]兰莉,梁巍,李诚,等.哈尔滨市社区居民应对气候变化知识、态度、行为及相关因素调查[J].中国卫生工程学,2015,14(1):30-32.
[30]汪庆庆,于永,陈晓东,等.南京某区居民对热浪健康风险的认知及影响因素[J].环境与职业医学,2015,32(7):620-624.
[31]严青华,马文军.风险认知理论及其在公众对热浪健康风险认知上的研究进展[J].中华预防医学杂志,2011,45(3):270-273.
[32] Saha M V,Davis R E,Hondula D M. Mortality displacement as a function of heat event strength in 7 US cities[J]. American Journal of Epidemiology,2014,179(4):467.
[33]田颖,张书余,罗斌,等.热浪对人体健康影响的研究进展[J].气象科技进展,2013,3(2):49-54.
[34] Hajat S,Armstrong B G,Gouveia N,et al. Mortality Displacement of Heat-Related Deaths:A Comparison of Delhi,S? o Paulo,and London[J]. Epidemiology,2005,16(5):613-620.
[35]盛戎蓉,高传思,李畅畅,等.全球气候变化对职业人群健康影响[J].中国公共卫生,2017,33(8):1259-1263.
[36]祝燕德.重大气象灾害风险防范[M〗.北京:中国财政经济出版社,2009.
[37] TAN J,Kalkstein L S,HUANG J,et al. An operational heat/health warning system in shanghai[J]. International Journal of Biometeorology,2004,48(3):157-162.
[38]汪庆庆,李永红,丁震,等.南京市高温热浪与健康风险早期预警系统试运行效果评估[J].环境与健康杂志,2014,31(5):382-384.
[39]兰莉,林琳,杨超,等.哈尔滨市高温热浪健康风险早期预警系统运行效果评估[J].中国公共卫生管理,2016(4):441-443.
[40] Vanos J K,Cakmak S,Kalkstein L S,et al. Association of weather and air pollution interactions on daily mortality in 12 Canadian cities.[J]. Air Quality Atmosphere&Health,2015,8(3):307-320.
[41] D’Amato G,Vitale C,Martino A D,et al. Effects on asthma and respiratory allergy of climate change and air pollution[J]. Multidisciplinary Respiratory Medicine,2015,10(1):39.
[42] XU Z,HUANG C,HU W,et al. Extreme temperatures and emergency department admissions for childhood asthma in Brisbane,Australia[J]. Occupational&Environmental Medicine,2013,70(10):730-735.
[43]竺乾威.从新公共管理到整体性治理[J].中国行政管理,2008(10):52-58.
[44]王晶晶.地震灾害应急管理中的政府协调问题研究[D〗.上海:上海华东师范大学,2014.
[45]周志忍.整体政府与跨部门协同———《公共管理经典与前沿译丛》首发系列序[J].中国行政管理,2008(9):127-128.
[46]罗成琳.突发群体事件演化及其应对预案构建研究[D〗.哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2009.
[47]杨虎,张东戈,黄匆,等.自组织应对“突发事件”协同模型[J].系统工程与电子技术,2012,34(10):2069-2074.
[48] Professor Perri,Leat D,Seltzer K,et al. Towards holistic governance:the new reform agenda[M〗. Palgrave,2002.
[49]孔锋,吕丽莉,王品,等.灾害防御能力的基本定义与特征探讨[J].灾害学,2018,33(4):1-4.
[50]谢盼,王仰麟,刘焱序,等.基于社会脆弱性的中国高温灾害人群健康风险评价[J].地理学报,2015,70(7):1041-1051.
[2] WMO(World Meteorological Organization). The global climate2001-2010:a decade of climate extremes summary report.[EB/OL].(2013-05-24)[2018-08-05]. https://library. wmo. int/pmb_ged/wmo_1119_en. pdf.
[3] WMO(World Meteorological Organization). WMO statement on the state of the global climate in 2017.[EB/OL].(2018-10-09)[2018-10-20]. https://library. wmo. int/doc_num. php? explnum_id=4453.
[4] HU L,HUANG G,QU X. Spatial and temporal features of summer extreme temperature over China during 1960-2013[J]. Theoretical&Applied Climatology,2016,128:1-13.
[5]中国国家标准化管理委员会. GB/T 29457-2012高温热浪等级[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2013:1-3.
[6] Hsiang S M,Burke M,Miguel E. Quantifying the influence of climate on human conflict[J]. Science,2013,341(6151):1212-1226.[2018-10-02]. http://science. sciencemag. org/content/341/6151/1235367. DOI:10. 1126/science. 1235367.
[7]杨红龙,许吟隆,陶生才,等.高温热浪脆弱性与适应性研究进展[J].科技导报,2010,28(19):98-102.
[8]叶殿秀,尹继福,陈正洪,等. 1961-2010年我国夏季高温热浪的时空变化特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2013,9(1):15-20.
[9]孙智辉,王春乙.气候变化对中国农业的影响[J].科技导报,2010,28(4):110-117.
[10]周雪光.芝加哥“热浪”的社会学启迪———《热浪:芝加哥灾难的社会解剖》读后感[J].社会学研究,2006(4):214-224.
[11]埃里克·克里纳伯格.热浪:芝加哥灾难的社会剖析[M].北京:商务印书馆,2014.
[12] Poumadère M,Mays C,Mer S L,et al. The 2003 heat wave in France:dangerous climate change here and now[J]. Risk Analysis,2005,25(6):1483-1494.
[13]王伟光郑国光. 2013气候变化绿皮书———应对气候变化报告[M].北京:社科文献出版社,2013.
[14]刘绿柳,孙林海,廖要明,等.国家级极端高温短期气候预测系统的研制及应用[J].气象,2008,34(10):102-107.
[15]宋晨阳,王锋,张韧,等.气候变化背景下我国城市高温热浪的风险分析与评估[J].灾害学,2016,31(4):201-206.
[16]张书娟,尹占娥,刘耀龙,等.基于GIS的华东地区高温灾害危险性分析[J].灾害学,2011,26(2):59-65.
[17]姬兴杰,朱业玉,顾万龙,等. 1971-2010年河南省夏季高温日数的变化趋势分析[J].灾害学,2012,27(3):59-63.
[18]范碧航,李宁,张继权,等.城市高温灾害性天气影响分析与危害评估———以长春市为例[J].灾害学,2011,26(4):93-97.
[19]秦大河.中国极端天气气候事件和灾害风险管理与适应国家评估报告[M].北京:科学出版社,2015.
[20]叶殿秀,尹继福,陈正洪,等. 1961-2010年我国夏季高温热浪的时空变化特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2013,9(1):15-20.
[21]吴凯,张云权,朱慈华,等.高温热浪与武汉市江岸区居民卒中死亡关系的时间序列分析[J].中华心血管病杂志,2015,43(12):1092-1096.
[22]薛莉,胡文琦,魏然,等. 2011-2013年高温热浪对苍南县高血压门诊就诊量的影响[J]. 2018,山东大学学报(医学版),2018,56(8):63-69.
[23]张安然,胡文琦,李佳蔚,等.热浪对居民循环系统疾病死亡影响的病例交叉研究[J]. 2018,56(8):56-62
[24]张霞,刘起勇.高温热浪对心脑血管病影响研究进展[J].中国公共卫生,2014,30(2):242-243.
[25] Dessai S. Heat stress and mortality in Lisbon part I. Model construction and validation[J]. International Journal of Biometeorology,2002,47(1):6-12.
[26] Oechsli F W,Buechley R W. Excess mortality associated with three Los Angeles September hot spells[J]. Environmental Research,1970,3(4):277-84.
[27]谈建国.气候变暖、城市热岛与高温热浪及其健康影响研究[D〗.南京:南京信息工程大学,2008.
[28]甄国新,赵金辉,张永,等.北京市顺义区居民热浪感知度及影响因素分析[J].卫生研究,2015,44(4):684-688.
[29]兰莉,梁巍,李诚,等.哈尔滨市社区居民应对气候变化知识、态度、行为及相关因素调查[J].中国卫生工程学,2015,14(1):30-32.
[30]汪庆庆,于永,陈晓东,等.南京某区居民对热浪健康风险的认知及影响因素[J].环境与职业医学,2015,32(7):620-624.
[31]严青华,马文军.风险认知理论及其在公众对热浪健康风险认知上的研究进展[J].中华预防医学杂志,2011,45(3):270-273.
[32] Saha M V,Davis R E,Hondula D M. Mortality displacement as a function of heat event strength in 7 US cities[J]. American Journal of Epidemiology,2014,179(4):467.
[33]田颖,张书余,罗斌,等.热浪对人体健康影响的研究进展[J].气象科技进展,2013,3(2):49-54.
[34] Hajat S,Armstrong B G,Gouveia N,et al. Mortality Displacement of Heat-Related Deaths:A Comparison of Delhi,S? o Paulo,and London[J]. Epidemiology,2005,16(5):613-620.
[35]盛戎蓉,高传思,李畅畅,等.全球气候变化对职业人群健康影响[J].中国公共卫生,2017,33(8):1259-1263.
[36]祝燕德.重大气象灾害风险防范[M〗.北京:中国财政经济出版社,2009.
[37] TAN J,Kalkstein L S,HUANG J,et al. An operational heat/health warning system in shanghai[J]. International Journal of Biometeorology,2004,48(3):157-162.
[38]汪庆庆,李永红,丁震,等.南京市高温热浪与健康风险早期预警系统试运行效果评估[J].环境与健康杂志,2014,31(5):382-384.
[39]兰莉,林琳,杨超,等.哈尔滨市高温热浪健康风险早期预警系统运行效果评估[J].中国公共卫生管理,2016(4):441-443.
[40] Vanos J K,Cakmak S,Kalkstein L S,et al. Association of weather and air pollution interactions on daily mortality in 12 Canadian cities.[J]. Air Quality Atmosphere&Health,2015,8(3):307-320.
[41] D’Amato G,Vitale C,Martino A D,et al. Effects on asthma and respiratory allergy of climate change and air pollution[J]. Multidisciplinary Respiratory Medicine,2015,10(1):39.
[42] XU Z,HUANG C,HU W,et al. Extreme temperatures and emergency department admissions for childhood asthma in Brisbane,Australia[J]. Occupational&Environmental Medicine,2013,70(10):730-735.
[43]竺乾威.从新公共管理到整体性治理[J].中国行政管理,2008(10):52-58.
[44]王晶晶.地震灾害应急管理中的政府协调问题研究[D〗.上海:上海华东师范大学,2014.
[45]周志忍.整体政府与跨部门协同———《公共管理经典与前沿译丛》首发系列序[J].中国行政管理,2008(9):127-128.
[46]罗成琳.突发群体事件演化及其应对预案构建研究[D〗.哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2009.
[47]杨虎,张东戈,黄匆,等.自组织应对“突发事件”协同模型[J].系统工程与电子技术,2012,34(10):2069-2074.
[48] Professor Perri,Leat D,Seltzer K,et al. Towards holistic governance:the new reform agenda[M〗. Palgrave,2002.
[49]孔锋,吕丽莉,王品,等.灾害防御能力的基本定义与特征探讨[J].灾害学,2018,33(4):1-4.
[50]谢盼,王仰麟,刘焱序,等.基于社会脆弱性的中国高温灾害人群健康风险评价[J].地理学报,2015,70(7):1041-1051.
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