基于RBF神经网络的沿海地区发展脆弱性评价
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摘要
全球性海平面上升对中国沿海地区发展的影响越来越显著.运用"源-路径-受体-影响"(SPRC)模型分析海平面上升对沿海地区发展脆弱性影响机理,从资源、环境、经济以及社会4个方面综合构建了沿海地区发展脆弱性评价指标体系;利用主成分分析法消除评价指标间冗余信息,结合RBF神经网络方法,对沿海各个地区在海平面上升情景下发展脆弱性进行了相关研究.结论显示,中国华东、华南沿海地区脆弱性等级较高于华北、东北沿海地区,而各区域内部脆弱性等级差异较小;从时间演变分析,2006-2016年,中国沿海地区整体脆弱性等级呈上升趋势,局部地区保持平稳.
The impact of global sea level rise on the development of coastal areas in China is becoming more and more significant. Based on SPRC(source-pathway-receptor-consequence) model, the mechanism of impact of sea level rise on vulnerability of coastal areas development is analyzed,and vulnerability evaluation index system of coastal areas development is established from four aspects:resources, environment,economy and society.Principal component analysis is used to eliminate redundant information between evaluation indices.RBF(radical basis function) neural network method is used to analyze vulnerability levels of coastal areas under sea level rise scenario.The results show that vulnerability levels in coastal areas of East China and South China are generally higher than those in North China and Northeast China,and the difference of vulnerability levels in each area is small.The overall vulnerability level of coastal areas in China shows an upward trend and remains stable in local areas from 2006 to 2016.
The impact of global sea level rise on the development of coastal areas in China is becoming more and more significant. Based on SPRC(source-pathway-receptor-consequence) model, the mechanism of impact of sea level rise on vulnerability of coastal areas development is analyzed,and vulnerability evaluation index system of coastal areas development is established from four aspects:resources, environment,economy and society.Principal component analysis is used to eliminate redundant information between evaluation indices.RBF(radical basis function) neural network method is used to analyze vulnerability levels of coastal areas under sea level rise scenario.The results show that vulnerability levels in coastal areas of East China and South China are generally higher than those in North China and Northeast China,and the difference of vulnerability levels in each area is small.The overall vulnerability level of coastal areas in China shows an upward trend and remains stable in local areas from 2006 to 2016.
引文
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[16] 管硕,高军伟,张彬,等.基于K-均值聚类算法RBF神经网络交通流预测[J].青岛大学学报(工程技术版),2014,29(2):20-23.doi:10.133061.1006-9798.2014.02.005GUAN Shuo,GAO Junwei,ZHANG Bin,et al.K-means Clustering Algorithm Based on RBF Neural Network Traffic Flow Forecasting[J].Journal of Qingdao University(Engineering & Technology Edition),2014,29(2):20-23.
[17] 王翠.基于灰色理论和RBF神经网络民航客运量预测方法研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2008.WANG Cui.Research on Civil Traffic Passenger Volume Forecasting Method Based on Grey Theory and RBF Neural Network[D].Beijing:Beijing Jiaotong University,2008.
[18] 张栋杨,黄健元,焦嫚.海平面上升对沿海地区发展脆弱性影响评价[J].广东海洋大学学报,2018,38(4):63-69.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-9159.2018.04.009ZHANG Dongyang,HUANG Jianyuan,JIAO Man.Assessment of Coastal Areas Vulnerability Under Sea Level Rise[J].Journal of Guangdong Ocean University,2018,38(4):63-69.
[2] 何霄嘉,张九天,仉天宇,等.海平面上升对我国沿海地区的影响及其适应对策[J].海洋预报,2012,29(6):84-91.doi:10.11737/j.issn.1003-0239.2012.06.011HE Xiaojia,ZHANG Jiutian,ZHANG Tianyu,et al.The Impact of Sea Level Rise on China′s Coastal Areas and Its Adaptation Strategy[J].Marine Forecasts,2012,29(6):84-91.
[3] 陈祖军,章文晟,沈洪.海平面上升对城市水安全影响研究及展望[J].中国防汛抗旱,2015,25(6):43-47.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-9264.2015.06.014CHEN Zujun,ZHANG Wensheng,SHEN Hong.Research on the Impact of Sea Level Rise on Urban Water Security and Its Prospect[J].China Flood & Drought Management,2015,25(6):43-47.
[4] 王慧,刘克修,范文静,等.2016年中国沿海海平面上升显著成因分析及影响[J].海洋学报,2018,40(2):43-52.doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2018.02.004WANG Hui,LIU Kexiu,FAN Wenjing,et al.Significant Causes and Impact of Sea Level Rise in China's Coastal Areas in 2016[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2018,40(2):43-52.
[5] BUTTON C,HARVEY N.Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change on the South Australian Coast:A Coastal Community Perspective[J].Transactions of the Royal Society of South Australia,2015,139(1):38-56.doi:10.1080/03721426.2015.1035216
[6] 李响,段晓峰,刘克修,等.中国沿海地区海平面上升脆弱性区划[J].灾害学,2016,31(4):103-109.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2016.04.018 LI Xiang,DUAN Xiaofeng,LIU Kexiu,et al.Study on Risk Assessment of Sea Level Rise in Tianjin-Hebei Coastal Area[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2016,31(4):103-109 .
[7] MAHAPATRA M,RAMAKRISHNAN R,RAJAWAT A S.Coastal Vulnerability Assessment of Gujarat Coast to Sea Level Rise Using GIS Techniques:A Preliminary Study[J].Journal of Coastal Conservation,2015,19(2):241-256.doi:10.1007/s11852-015-0384-x
[8] 王肖敏,彭飞,韩增林.基于SPA的海洋产业系统脆弱性与障碍因素研究——以中国沿海地区为例[J].资源开发与市场,2015,31(2):166-171.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1005-8141.2015.02.009WANG Xiaomin,PENG Fei,HAN Zenglin.Research on the Vulnerability and Obstacle Factors of Marine Industry System Based on SPA—A Case Study of China's Coastal Areas[J].Resource Development & Market,2015,31(2):166-171.
[9] 李博.辽宁沿海地区人海经济系统脆弱性评价[J].地理科学,2014,34(6):711-716.doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2014.06.002LI Bo.Assessment of the Vulnerability of the Economic System to the Sea Coast in Liaoning Province[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2014,34(6):711-716.
[10] JANSSEN M A.An Update on the Scholarly Networks on Resilience,Vulnerability and Adaptation Within the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change[J].Global Environmental Change,2007,16(3):240-252.doi:org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.04.001
[11] MONBALIU J,CHEN Z,FELTS D,et al.Risk Assessment of Estuaries Under Climate Change:Lessons from Western Europe[J].Coastal Engineering,2014,87:32-49.doi:10.1016/j.cstaleng.2014.01.001
[12] 梁皓,王欢.缓发性海洋灾害传导机理及对沿海地区发展的影响评价——以海平面上升为例[J].河海大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2018,20(1):76-82,92.doi:10.3876/j.issn.1671-4970.2018.01.012LIANG Hao,WANG Huan.Transmission Mechanism of Delayed Oceanic Disasters and Its Impact on Coastal Development:A Case Study of Sea Level Rise[J].Journal of Hohai University (Philosophy and Social Science),2018,20(1):76-82,92.
[13] HEREHER M E.Coastal Vulnerability Assessment for Egypt′s Mediterranean Coast[J].Geomatics,Natural Hazards and Risk,2015,6(4):342-355.doi:10.1080/19475705.2013.845115
[14] 王坤,马振兴,孟伟庆.土地利用总体规划实施评价研究——以天津市为例[J].天津师范大学学报(自然科学版),2016,36(3):38-43.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1671-1114.2016.03.008WANG Kun,MA Zhenxing,MENG Weiqing.Study on Implementation Evaluation of Land Use Master Plan—A Case Study of Tianjin[J].Journal of Tianjin Normal University (Natural Science Edition),2016,36(3):38-43.
[15] 沈一岚,王志刚.高校人文社会学科科研实力综合评价研究——基于核主成分分析和实证研究法[J].安徽师范大学学报(自然科学版),2017,40(1):20-26.doi:10.14182/j.cnki.1001-2443.2017.01.004SHEN Yilan,WANG Zhigang.Research on the Comprehensive Evaluation of Humanities and Social Science Research Strength in Colleges and Universities—Based on Principal Component Analysis and Empirical Research[J].Journal of Anhui Normal University (Natural Science Edition),2017,40(1):20-26.
[16] 管硕,高军伟,张彬,等.基于K-均值聚类算法RBF神经网络交通流预测[J].青岛大学学报(工程技术版),2014,29(2):20-23.doi:10.133061.1006-9798.2014.02.005GUAN Shuo,GAO Junwei,ZHANG Bin,et al.K-means Clustering Algorithm Based on RBF Neural Network Traffic Flow Forecasting[J].Journal of Qingdao University(Engineering & Technology Edition),2014,29(2):20-23.
[17] 王翠.基于灰色理论和RBF神经网络民航客运量预测方法研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2008.WANG Cui.Research on Civil Traffic Passenger Volume Forecasting Method Based on Grey Theory and RBF Neural Network[D].Beijing:Beijing Jiaotong University,2008.
[18] 张栋杨,黄健元,焦嫚.海平面上升对沿海地区发展脆弱性影响评价[J].广东海洋大学学报,2018,38(4):63-69.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-9159.2018.04.009ZHANG Dongyang,HUANG Jianyuan,JIAO Man.Assessment of Coastal Areas Vulnerability Under Sea Level Rise[J].Journal of Guangdong Ocean University,2018,38(4):63-69.
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