基于STIRPAT模型的内蒙古沙漠化地区环境压力分析
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摘要
实现经济与生态环境的协调发展,已经成为当前治理沙漠化的巨大挑战。如何定量分析人类活动和自然条件对环境的影响,是当前环境经济学界研究的热点问题。以内蒙古自治区71个沙漠化县为研究对象,以1986—2010年为研究区间做面板空间计量实证分析。选取了人口、富裕度、技术水平、风速和降水作为环境基础指标构建STIRPAT模型,从环境压力内在驱动角度定量分析不同的自然因素和人为因素对沙漠化地区环境的综合影响。结果表明:在观测数据范围内,富裕度、技术水平、风速和降水是内蒙古自治区环境压力的主要驱动因素;富裕度每增加1%,环境压力显著增加0.096%;技术水平每变化1%,将引起环境压力相应发生0.084%的变化;风速和降水每变动1%分别使得沙漠地区环境压力显著地增加0.640%和减少0.216%。
The coordinated development of the economic and ecological environment has become a huge challenge in the current management of desertification. How to quantitatively analyze the impact of human activities and natural conditions on the environment has become a hot issue in the current research of environmental economics, and it is also a problem to be studied in this paper. This paper uses a panel spatial econometric model for empirical analysis in 71 desertification counties in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region over the period 1986-2010. We select the number of agricultural labor, capita GDP, technological level,wind speed, and precipitation as the basic indicators of environment to build the STIRPAT model. The comprehensive impact of different natural factors and human factors on the environmental pressure in desertification areas was quantitatively analyzed from the point of internal driving force of environmental pressure. The study shows that capita GDP, technological level, wind speed and precipitation are the main drivers of environmental pressure in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region within the scope of observational data; As the degree of affluence increased by 1%, the environmental pressure increased significantly by 0.096%, and each change of 1% of the technical level would lead to a 0.084% change in the environmental pressure.The each change of 1% of wind speed and precipitation will respectively lead to a significant increase of 0.640% and reduce by 0.216% of the environmental pressure in desert areas.
The coordinated development of the economic and ecological environment has become a huge challenge in the current management of desertification. How to quantitatively analyze the impact of human activities and natural conditions on the environment has become a hot issue in the current research of environmental economics, and it is also a problem to be studied in this paper. This paper uses a panel spatial econometric model for empirical analysis in 71 desertification counties in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region over the period 1986-2010. We select the number of agricultural labor, capita GDP, technological level,wind speed, and precipitation as the basic indicators of environment to build the STIRPAT model. The comprehensive impact of different natural factors and human factors on the environmental pressure in desertification areas was quantitatively analyzed from the point of internal driving force of environmental pressure. The study shows that capita GDP, technological level, wind speed and precipitation are the main drivers of environmental pressure in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region within the scope of observational data; As the degree of affluence increased by 1%, the environmental pressure increased significantly by 0.096%, and each change of 1% of the technical level would lead to a 0.084% change in the environmental pressure.The each change of 1% of wind speed and precipitation will respectively lead to a significant increase of 0.640% and reduce by 0.216% of the environmental pressure in desert areas.
引文
[1] 邹瑜,顾明.法学大辞典[M].北京:中国政法大学出版社,1991.
[2] http://www.china.com.cn/environment/txt/2002-12/24/content_5251577.htm.
[3] 王涛,朱震达.我国沙漠化研究的若干问题——1.沙漠化的概念及其内涵[J].中国沙漠,2003,23(3):209-214.
[4] 王涛.沙漠化研究进展[J].中国科学院院刊,2009,24(3):290-296.
[5] 王涛,吴薇,赵哈林,等.科尔沁地区现代沙漠化过程的驱动因素分析[J].中国沙漠,2004,24(5):519-528.
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[9] 武焱.内蒙古自治区西部沙漠形成的原因[J].阴山学刊:自然科学版,2009,23(4):59-62.
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[13] 王娅,周立华,陈勇,等.农户生计资本与沙漠化逆转趋势的关系——以宁夏盐池县为例[J].生态学报,2017,37(6):2080-2092.
[14] Ge X,Li Y,Luloff A E,et al.Effect of agricultural economic growth on sandy desertification in Horqin Sandy Land[J].Ecological Economics,2015,119:53-63.
[15] Ge X,Ni J,Li Z,et al.Quantifying the synergistic effect of the precipitation and land use on sandy desertification at county level:acase study in Naiman Banner,northern China[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2013,123(1):34.
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[17] Chertow M R.The IPAT Equation and its variants:changing views of technology and environmental impact[J]Journal of Industrial Ecology,2001,4:13-29.
[18] Dietz T,Rosa E A.Rethinking the environmental impacts of population,affluence and technology[J].Human Ecology Review,1994,1(2):277-300.
[19] 顾晓薇,王青,刘敬智,等.环境压力指标及应用[J].中国环境科学,2005,25(3):315-319.
[20] 尚海洋,徐中民,焦文献.中国经济增长与环境压力的关系研究[J].地域研究与开发,2006,25(3):13-16.
[21] 陈强强,孙小花,王生林,等.基于STIRPAT模型分析社会经济因素对甘肃省环境压力的影响[J].西北人口,2009,30(6):58-61.
[22] 张静,鲁春霞,谢高地,等.北京城市能源消费的生态与环境压力研究[J].资源科学,2015,37(6):1133-1140.
[23] 闫妍,朱教君,闫巧玲,等.基于遥感和GIS方法的科尔沁沙地边界划定[J].地理科学,2014,34(1):122-128.
[24] 王涛,吴薇,薛娴,等.近50年来中国北方沙漠化土地的时空变化[J].地理学报,2004,59(2):203-212.
[25] 王涛,宋翔,颜长珍,等.近35 a来中国北方土地沙漠化趋势的遥感分析[J].中国沙漠,2011,31(6):1351-1356.
[26] 马永欢,周立华,樊胜岳,等.中国土地沙漠化的逆转与生态治理政策的战略转变[J].中国软科学,2006(6):53-59.
[27] 张靖,牛建明,同丽嘎,等.多水平/尺度的驱动力变化与沙漠化之间的关系——以内蒙古自治区乌审旗为例[J].中国沙漠,2013,33(6):1643-1653.
[28] 王立猛,何康林.基于STIRPAT模型分析中国环境压力的时间差异——以1952—2003年能源消费为例[J].自然资源学报,2006,21(6):862-869.
[29] 郑世成.内蒙古农牧业经济五十年1947—1996[M].1997.
[30] 国家统计局内蒙古调查总队.内蒙古经济社会调查年鉴:2011[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2011.
[31] 乌云娜,裴浩,白美兰.内蒙古土地沙漠化与气候变化和人类活动[J].中国沙漠,2002,22(3):292-297.
[32] 阿如旱,杨持,王金荣,等.内蒙古多伦县沙漠化土地时空变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2010,17(4):207-211.
[2] http://www.china.com.cn/environment/txt/2002-12/24/content_5251577.htm.
[3] 王涛,朱震达.我国沙漠化研究的若干问题——1.沙漠化的概念及其内涵[J].中国沙漠,2003,23(3):209-214.
[4] 王涛.沙漠化研究进展[J].中国科学院院刊,2009,24(3):290-296.
[5] 王涛,吴薇,赵哈林,等.科尔沁地区现代沙漠化过程的驱动因素分析[J].中国沙漠,2004,24(5):519-528.
[6] Winstanley D.Rainfall patterns and general atmospheric circulation[J].Nature,1973,245(5422):190.
[7] Sinha S.拉加斯坦地区第四纪地质、干旱作用和沙漠化[J].世界沙漠研究,1983(1):22-27.
[8] 任鸿昌,吕永龙,杨萍,等.科尔沁沙地土地沙漠化的历史与现状[J].中国沙漠,2004,24(5):544-547.
[9] 武焱.内蒙古自治区西部沙漠形成的原因[J].阴山学刊:自然科学版,2009,23(4):59-62.
[10] 任振球.全球变化:地球四大圈异常变化及其天文成因[M].北京:科学出版社,1990.
[11] 方修琦.陕北及鄂尔多斯地区降水变化与沙漠化[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),1987(1):90-95.
[12] 樊胜岳,聂莹,陈玉玲.沙漠化:政策作用与耦合模式[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2015.
[13] 王娅,周立华,陈勇,等.农户生计资本与沙漠化逆转趋势的关系——以宁夏盐池县为例[J].生态学报,2017,37(6):2080-2092.
[14] Ge X,Li Y,Luloff A E,et al.Effect of agricultural economic growth on sandy desertification in Horqin Sandy Land[J].Ecological Economics,2015,119:53-63.
[15] Ge X,Ni J,Li Z,et al.Quantifying the synergistic effect of the precipitation and land use on sandy desertification at county level:acase study in Naiman Banner,northern China[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2013,123(1):34.
[16] Ehrlich P,Holden J.One-dimensional economy[J].Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists,1972,28:16-27.
[17] Chertow M R.The IPAT Equation and its variants:changing views of technology and environmental impact[J]Journal of Industrial Ecology,2001,4:13-29.
[18] Dietz T,Rosa E A.Rethinking the environmental impacts of population,affluence and technology[J].Human Ecology Review,1994,1(2):277-300.
[19] 顾晓薇,王青,刘敬智,等.环境压力指标及应用[J].中国环境科学,2005,25(3):315-319.
[20] 尚海洋,徐中民,焦文献.中国经济增长与环境压力的关系研究[J].地域研究与开发,2006,25(3):13-16.
[21] 陈强强,孙小花,王生林,等.基于STIRPAT模型分析社会经济因素对甘肃省环境压力的影响[J].西北人口,2009,30(6):58-61.
[22] 张静,鲁春霞,谢高地,等.北京城市能源消费的生态与环境压力研究[J].资源科学,2015,37(6):1133-1140.
[23] 闫妍,朱教君,闫巧玲,等.基于遥感和GIS方法的科尔沁沙地边界划定[J].地理科学,2014,34(1):122-128.
[24] 王涛,吴薇,薛娴,等.近50年来中国北方沙漠化土地的时空变化[J].地理学报,2004,59(2):203-212.
[25] 王涛,宋翔,颜长珍,等.近35 a来中国北方土地沙漠化趋势的遥感分析[J].中国沙漠,2011,31(6):1351-1356.
[26] 马永欢,周立华,樊胜岳,等.中国土地沙漠化的逆转与生态治理政策的战略转变[J].中国软科学,2006(6):53-59.
[27] 张靖,牛建明,同丽嘎,等.多水平/尺度的驱动力变化与沙漠化之间的关系——以内蒙古自治区乌审旗为例[J].中国沙漠,2013,33(6):1643-1653.
[28] 王立猛,何康林.基于STIRPAT模型分析中国环境压力的时间差异——以1952—2003年能源消费为例[J].自然资源学报,2006,21(6):862-869.
[29] 郑世成.内蒙古农牧业经济五十年1947—1996[M].1997.
[30] 国家统计局内蒙古调查总队.内蒙古经济社会调查年鉴:2011[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2011.
[31] 乌云娜,裴浩,白美兰.内蒙古土地沙漠化与气候变化和人类活动[J].中国沙漠,2002,22(3):292-297.
[32] 阿如旱,杨持,王金荣,等.内蒙古多伦县沙漠化土地时空变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2010,17(4):207-211.
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