滑坡监测点多信息相似性度量方法研究
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摘要
滑坡监测点在一段时间内对外界影响因素的响应可以看作滑坡在当前时刻的状态。滑坡监测点在相似的状态下受到相似的外界激励时会表现出相似的响应。据此,可以对相似的状态进行类比,从而将相似状态运用于滑坡的稳定性分析、数据修正和预测预报等。提出一种基于多信息的状态单元矩阵的相似性度量方法,运用该方法同时对滑坡的外界影响因素和运动状态进行相似性匹配,既保证了外界影响因素的相似性,也保证了滑坡当前运动状态的相似性。为验证该方法的有效性,运用三峡库区4个滑坡34个监测点的1770个状态作为状态单元集,对白水河滑坡2015年1月至2016年6月的位移数据进行预测。预测结果显示,该方法优于现有的BP神经网络、支持向量回归等经典预测方法。
The response of a monitoring point on a landslide to external factors over a period of time can be regarded as a current state of the landslide.The monitoring points on landslide show similar responses when they are stimulated by similar external factors under similar states.Accordingly,it is possible to analogize similar states and apply it to stability analysis,data correction and prediction of landslide.In this study,a similarity measurement method for multiple information data based on status element matrix was proposed.It not only ensured the similarity of the external factors,but also guaranteed the similarity of the current state of landslide to measure external factors and movement status of landslides.To verify the effectiveness of the method,1 770 states of 34 monitoring points of 4 landslides in the Three Gorges reservoir area were used as status element matrix to perform similarity matching,and good results were obtained to predict displacement data of Baishui River landslide from January 2015 to June 2016.Based on the results,the similarity measurement method proposed was superior to the existing classic prediction methods such as back propagation neural network,support vector regression and so on.
The response of a monitoring point on a landslide to external factors over a period of time can be regarded as a current state of the landslide.The monitoring points on landslide show similar responses when they are stimulated by similar external factors under similar states.Accordingly,it is possible to analogize similar states and apply it to stability analysis,data correction and prediction of landslide.In this study,a similarity measurement method for multiple information data based on status element matrix was proposed.It not only ensured the similarity of the external factors,but also guaranteed the similarity of the current state of landslide to measure external factors and movement status of landslides.To verify the effectiveness of the method,1 770 states of 34 monitoring points of 4 landslides in the Three Gorges reservoir area were used as status element matrix to perform similarity matching,and good results were obtained to predict displacement data of Baishui River landslide from January 2015 to June 2016.Based on the results,the similarity measurement method proposed was superior to the existing classic prediction methods such as back propagation neural network,support vector regression and so on.
引文
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[5]韦忠跟.边坡雷达监测预警机制及应用实例分析[J].煤矿安全, 2017, 48(5):221-223.WEI Zhong-gen. Monitoring and early warning mechanism of slope radar and application example analysis[J]. Safety in Coal Mines, 2017, 48(5):221-223.
[6]朱吉祥,张礼中,周小元,等.基于尺度效应的滑坡影响因素的权重修正研究[J].水土保持研究, 2015, 22(5):181-185.ZHU Ji-xiang, ZHANG Li-zhong, ZHOU Xiao-yuan,et al. Study of scale effect-based calibration on weight of factors influencing landslide[J]. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2015, 22(5):181-185.
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[8]刘勇,冯帅,秦志萌.基于运动角差的滑坡监测点相似性评判方法研究[J].岩土力学, 2019, 40(1):1-9.LIU Yong, FENG Shuai, QIN Zhi-meng. Research on similarity evaluation method of landslide monitoring points based on motion-angle-difference[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics, 2019, 40(1):1-9.
[9]桂蕾,殷坤龙.基于多重分形理论的滑坡地表监测位移分析[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版), 2014, 45(11):3908-3914.GUI Lei, YIN Kun-long. Analysis of landslide surface monitoring displacement based on multi-fractal theory[J].Journal of Central South University(Science and Technology), 2014, 45(11):3908-3914.
[10] WU Xue-ling, ZHAN F B, ZHANG Kai-xiang, et al.Application of a two-step cluster analysis and the Apriori algorithm to classify the deformation states of two typical colluvial landslides in the Three Gorges, China[J].Environmental Earth Sciences, 2016, 75:146-162.
[11] YIN Yue-ping, WANG Hong-de, GAO You-long, et al.Real-time monitoring and early warning of landslides at relocated Wushan Town, the Three Gorges Reservoir,China[J]. Landslides, 2010, 7(3):339-349.
[12] WANG Hong-de, GAO You-long, LE Qi-lang.Construction of the geological disaster real-time monitoring demonstration station in Wushan County[C]//2011 International Conference on Multimedia Technology.Hangzhou:IEEE, 2011.
[13]刘红卫,苏生瑞,刘汝明,等.基于范例推理的山区公路滑坡治理方案决策模型[J].水文地质工程地质,2006(2):63-66.LIU Hong-wei, SU Sheng-rui, LIU Ru-ming, et al.Decision model of the mountain area highway landslide control using case-based reasoning method[J].Hydrogeology&Engineering Geology, 2006(2):63-66.
[14]李聪,姜清辉,周创兵,等.基于实例推理系统的滑坡预警判据研究[J].岩土力学, 2011, 32(4):1069-1076.LI Cong, JIANG Qing-hui, ZHOU Chuang-bing, et al.Research on early warning criterion of landslides using case-based reasoning[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics, 2011,32(4):1069-1076.
[15] DAI Zi-li, HUANG Yu, CHENG Hua-lin, et al. 3D numerical modeling using smoothed particle hydrodynamics of flow-like landslide propagation triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake[J].Engineering Geology, 2014, 180:21-33.
[16] WANG Ting-shiuan, YU Teng-to, LEE Shing-tsz, et al.MATLAB code to estimate landslide volume from single remote sensed image using genetic algorithm and imagery similarity measurement[J]. Computers&Geosciences,2014, 70:238-247.
[17]缪亚敏,朱阿兴,杨琳,等.一种基于地理环境相似度的滑坡负样本可信度度量方法[J].地理科学进展, 2016,35(7):860-869.MIAO Ya-min, ZHU A-xing, YANG Lin, et al. A method for quantifying the reliability of landslide pseudo-absence samples based on geographic environmental similarity[J].Progress in Geography, 2016, 35(7):860-869.
[18] DENG Xiao-long, LI Li-hui, TAN Yu-fang. Validation of spatial prediction models for landslide susceptibility mapping by considering structural similarity[J]. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 2017, 6(4):103-119.
[19]靳晓光,王兰生,李晓红.位移监测在滑坡时空运动研究中的应用[J].山地学报, 2002, 20(5):632-635.JIN Xiao-guang, WANG Lan-sheng, LI Xiao-hong.Application of displacement monitoring in study on space-time movement of landslide[J]. Journal of Mountain Science, 2002, 20(5):632-635.
[20] OKAMOTO T, LARSEN J O, MATSUURA S, et al.Displacement properties of landslide masses at the initiation of failure in quick clay deposits and the effects of meteorological and hydrological factors[J].Engineering Geology, 2004,72(3-4):233-251.
[21]龙悦,徐光黎,高幼龙,等.数据预处理在滑坡位移相关分析中的应用[J].地质科技情报, 2012, 31(2):122-127.LONG Yue, XU Guang-li, GAO You-long, et al.Application of the data preprocessing methods to the correlation analysis of landslide displacement[J].Geological Science and Technology Information, 2012,31(2):122-127.
[22]缪海波,殷坤龙.库岸深层老滑坡复活对诱发因素的滞后响应机制[J].地质科技情报, 2014, 33(5):188-192, 203.MIAO Hai-bo, YIN Kun-long. Delayed response mechanism of the ancient landslide reactivation of deep-seated reservoir to the inducing factors[J].Geological Science and Technology Information, 2014,33(5):188-192, 203.
[23]李骅锦,许强,何雨森,等.“阶跃式”滑坡位移预测及阈值分析的ARMA-(LASSO-ELM)-Copula模型[J].岩石力学与工程学报, 2017, 36(增刊2):4075-4084.LI Hua-jin, XU Qiang, HE Yu-sen, et al. An ARMA-(LASSO-ELM)-Copula framework for landslide displacement prediction and threshold computing of the displacement of step-like landslides[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 2017, 36(Suppl.2):4075-4084.
[24] SUN Guan-hua, YANG Yong-tao, CHENG Sheng-guo,et al. Phreatic line calculation and stability analysis of slopes under the combined effect of reservoir water level fluctuations and rainfall[J]. Canadian Geotechnical Journal, 2017, 54(5):631-645.
[2] MA Feng-shan, WANG Jie, YUAN Ren-mao, et al.Application of analytical hierarchy process and least-squares method for landslide susceptibility assessment along the Zhong-Wu natural gas pipeline,China[J]. Landslides, 2013, 10(4):481-492.
[3] YIN Yue-ping, HUANG Bo-lin, LIU Guang-ning, et al.Potential risk analysis on a Jianchuandong dangerous rockmass-generated impulse wave in the Three Gorges Reservoir, China[J]. Environmental Earth Sciences,2015, 74(3):2595-2607.
[4] LATYPOV A, ZHARKOVA N, NURIYEV I. Landslide hazard assessment in city under construction lnnopolis(Russia)[C]//IOP Conference Series:Earth and Environmental Science.[S. l.]:[s. n.], 2016:012042.
[5]韦忠跟.边坡雷达监测预警机制及应用实例分析[J].煤矿安全, 2017, 48(5):221-223.WEI Zhong-gen. Monitoring and early warning mechanism of slope radar and application example analysis[J]. Safety in Coal Mines, 2017, 48(5):221-223.
[6]朱吉祥,张礼中,周小元,等.基于尺度效应的滑坡影响因素的权重修正研究[J].水土保持研究, 2015, 22(5):181-185.ZHU Ji-xiang, ZHANG Li-zhong, ZHOU Xiao-yuan,et al. Study of scale effect-based calibration on weight of factors influencing landslide[J]. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2015, 22(5):181-185.
[7]邱海军,胡胜,崔鹏,等.黄土滑坡灾害空间格局及其空间尺度依赖性研究[J].第四纪研究, 2017, 37(2):307-318.QIU Hai-jun, HU Sheng, CUI Peng, et al. Pattern analysis of loess landslides and their scale dependency[J].Quaternary Sciences, 2017, 37(2):307-318.
[8]刘勇,冯帅,秦志萌.基于运动角差的滑坡监测点相似性评判方法研究[J].岩土力学, 2019, 40(1):1-9.LIU Yong, FENG Shuai, QIN Zhi-meng. Research on similarity evaluation method of landslide monitoring points based on motion-angle-difference[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics, 2019, 40(1):1-9.
[9]桂蕾,殷坤龙.基于多重分形理论的滑坡地表监测位移分析[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版), 2014, 45(11):3908-3914.GUI Lei, YIN Kun-long. Analysis of landslide surface monitoring displacement based on multi-fractal theory[J].Journal of Central South University(Science and Technology), 2014, 45(11):3908-3914.
[10] WU Xue-ling, ZHAN F B, ZHANG Kai-xiang, et al.Application of a two-step cluster analysis and the Apriori algorithm to classify the deformation states of two typical colluvial landslides in the Three Gorges, China[J].Environmental Earth Sciences, 2016, 75:146-162.
[11] YIN Yue-ping, WANG Hong-de, GAO You-long, et al.Real-time monitoring and early warning of landslides at relocated Wushan Town, the Three Gorges Reservoir,China[J]. Landslides, 2010, 7(3):339-349.
[12] WANG Hong-de, GAO You-long, LE Qi-lang.Construction of the geological disaster real-time monitoring demonstration station in Wushan County[C]//2011 International Conference on Multimedia Technology.Hangzhou:IEEE, 2011.
[13]刘红卫,苏生瑞,刘汝明,等.基于范例推理的山区公路滑坡治理方案决策模型[J].水文地质工程地质,2006(2):63-66.LIU Hong-wei, SU Sheng-rui, LIU Ru-ming, et al.Decision model of the mountain area highway landslide control using case-based reasoning method[J].Hydrogeology&Engineering Geology, 2006(2):63-66.
[14]李聪,姜清辉,周创兵,等.基于实例推理系统的滑坡预警判据研究[J].岩土力学, 2011, 32(4):1069-1076.LI Cong, JIANG Qing-hui, ZHOU Chuang-bing, et al.Research on early warning criterion of landslides using case-based reasoning[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics, 2011,32(4):1069-1076.
[15] DAI Zi-li, HUANG Yu, CHENG Hua-lin, et al. 3D numerical modeling using smoothed particle hydrodynamics of flow-like landslide propagation triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake[J].Engineering Geology, 2014, 180:21-33.
[16] WANG Ting-shiuan, YU Teng-to, LEE Shing-tsz, et al.MATLAB code to estimate landslide volume from single remote sensed image using genetic algorithm and imagery similarity measurement[J]. Computers&Geosciences,2014, 70:238-247.
[17]缪亚敏,朱阿兴,杨琳,等.一种基于地理环境相似度的滑坡负样本可信度度量方法[J].地理科学进展, 2016,35(7):860-869.MIAO Ya-min, ZHU A-xing, YANG Lin, et al. A method for quantifying the reliability of landslide pseudo-absence samples based on geographic environmental similarity[J].Progress in Geography, 2016, 35(7):860-869.
[18] DENG Xiao-long, LI Li-hui, TAN Yu-fang. Validation of spatial prediction models for landslide susceptibility mapping by considering structural similarity[J]. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 2017, 6(4):103-119.
[19]靳晓光,王兰生,李晓红.位移监测在滑坡时空运动研究中的应用[J].山地学报, 2002, 20(5):632-635.JIN Xiao-guang, WANG Lan-sheng, LI Xiao-hong.Application of displacement monitoring in study on space-time movement of landslide[J]. Journal of Mountain Science, 2002, 20(5):632-635.
[20] OKAMOTO T, LARSEN J O, MATSUURA S, et al.Displacement properties of landslide masses at the initiation of failure in quick clay deposits and the effects of meteorological and hydrological factors[J].Engineering Geology, 2004,72(3-4):233-251.
[21]龙悦,徐光黎,高幼龙,等.数据预处理在滑坡位移相关分析中的应用[J].地质科技情报, 2012, 31(2):122-127.LONG Yue, XU Guang-li, GAO You-long, et al.Application of the data preprocessing methods to the correlation analysis of landslide displacement[J].Geological Science and Technology Information, 2012,31(2):122-127.
[22]缪海波,殷坤龙.库岸深层老滑坡复活对诱发因素的滞后响应机制[J].地质科技情报, 2014, 33(5):188-192, 203.MIAO Hai-bo, YIN Kun-long. Delayed response mechanism of the ancient landslide reactivation of deep-seated reservoir to the inducing factors[J].Geological Science and Technology Information, 2014,33(5):188-192, 203.
[23]李骅锦,许强,何雨森,等.“阶跃式”滑坡位移预测及阈值分析的ARMA-(LASSO-ELM)-Copula模型[J].岩石力学与工程学报, 2017, 36(增刊2):4075-4084.LI Hua-jin, XU Qiang, HE Yu-sen, et al. An ARMA-(LASSO-ELM)-Copula framework for landslide displacement prediction and threshold computing of the displacement of step-like landslides[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 2017, 36(Suppl.2):4075-4084.
[24] SUN Guan-hua, YANG Yong-tao, CHENG Sheng-guo,et al. Phreatic line calculation and stability analysis of slopes under the combined effect of reservoir water level fluctuations and rainfall[J]. Canadian Geotechnical Journal, 2017, 54(5):631-645.
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