CMIP6二氧化碳移除模式比较计划(CDRMIP)概况与评述
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摘要
地球工程是指通过人工方法在大规模尺度上干预气候系统,使地球气候降温的一种手段。CO_2移除是地球工程的主要途径之一。文中概述了CO_2移除地球工程的科学背景、各种CO_2移除方法的利弊、大尺度应用CO_2移除方法可能产生的气候效应和风险,以及CO_2移除方案在未来气候情景研究中的现状。在第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)框架下开展的CO_2移除模式比较计划(CDRMIP),为深入研究CO_2移除地球工程减缓气候变化的效能和气候系统对其的响应提供了统一试验方案和平台。CDRMIP的开展,对地球工程和气候变化研究具有重要的促进作用。
Geoengineering is a large-scale deliberate intervention of offsetting the global temperature rise from greenhouse gases. Carbon Dioxide Removal(CDR) is an important form of geoengineering. In this brief review, we introduce the principle science backgrounds behind CDR, the potential efficacy, feedbacks, and side effects of specific CDR methods, as well as the status of CDR in the Integrated Assessment Model(IAM) scenario studies. Recently the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project(CDRMIP) was initiated as part of the CMIP6. As a common framework to assess the potential effects and risks of using CDR to address climate change, CDRMIP provides an important opportunity to better understand how the Earth system responds to human climate perturbations.
Geoengineering is a large-scale deliberate intervention of offsetting the global temperature rise from greenhouse gases. Carbon Dioxide Removal(CDR) is an important form of geoengineering. In this brief review, we introduce the principle science backgrounds behind CDR, the potential efficacy, feedbacks, and side effects of specific CDR methods, as well as the status of CDR in the Integrated Assessment Model(IAM) scenario studies. Recently the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project(CDRMIP) was initiated as part of the CMIP6. As a common framework to assess the potential effects and risks of using CDR to address climate change, CDRMIP provides an important opportunity to better understand how the Earth system responds to human climate perturbations.
引文
[1]IPCC.Climate change 2013:the physical science basis[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2013
[2]IPCC.Climate change 2014:impacts,adaptation,and vulnerability[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2014
[3]Keith D W.Geoengineering the climate:history and prospect[J].Annual Review of Energy and the Environment,2000,25,245-284
[4]National Research Council.Climate Intervention[M].Washington DC:National Academies Press,2015
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[6]Eisaman M D,Parajuly K,Tuganov A,et al.CO2 extraction from seawater using bipolar membrane electrodialysis[J].Energy&Environmental Science,2012,5:7346.DOI:0.1039/c2ee03393c
[7]Boysen L R,Lucht W,Gerten D.Trade-offs for food production,nature conservation and climate limit the terrestrial carbon dioxide removal potential[J].Global Change Biology,2017,23:4303-4317
[8]Cao L,Caldeira K.Atmospheric carbon dioxide removal:long-term consequences and commitment[J].Environmental Research Letter,2010,5:24011.DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/024011
[9]Keller D P,Feng E Y,Oschlies A.Potential climate engineering effectiveness and side effects during a high carbon dioxide-emission scenario[J].Nature Communication,2014,5:3304.DOI:10.1038/ncomms4304
[10]Keller D P,Lenton A,Littleton E W,et al.The effects of Carbon Dioxide Removal on the carbon cycle[J].Current Climate Change Reports,2018,4:250-265
[11]Harper A B,Powell T,Cox P M,et al.Land-use emissions play a critical role in land-based mitigation for Paris climate targets[J].Nature Communication,2018,9:2938.DOI:10.1038/s41467-018-05340-z
[12]Muri H.The role of large-scale BECCS in the pursuit of the 1.5℃target:an Earth system model perspective[J].Environmental Research Letter,2018,13:044010.DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/aab324
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[14]Bauer N,Calvin K,Emmerling J,et al.Shared socio-economic pathways of the energy sector:quantifying the narratives[J].Global Environmental Change,2017,42:316-330
[15]Jones C D,Ciais P,Davis S J,et al.Simulating the Earth system response to negative emissions[J].Environmental Research Letter,2016,11:95012.DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/095012
[16]Schwinger J,Tjiputra J F.Ocean carbon cycle feedbacks under negative emissions[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2018,45:5062-5070
[17]Rickels W,Reith F,Keller D,et al.Integrated assessment of Carbon Dioxide Removal[J].Earth’s Future,2018,6:565-582
[18]Tokarska K B,Zickfeld K.The effectiveness of net negative carbon dioxide emissions in reversing anthropogenic climate change[J].Environmental Research Letter,2015,10:94013.DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094013
[19]Boucher O,Halloran P R,Burke E J,et al.Reversibility in an Earth system model in response to CO2 concentration changes[J].Environmental Research Letter,2012,7:24013.DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/7/2/024013
[20]Lenton T M,Held H,Kriegler E,et al.Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA,2008,105:1786-1793
[21]Lenton A,Keller D,Pfister P.How will Earth respond to plans for Carbon Dioxide Removal?[J].EOS,2017,98.DOI:10.1029/2017EO068385
[22]Keller D,Lenton A,Scott V,et al.The Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project(CDRMIP):rationale and experimental protocol for CMIP6[J].Geoscientific Model Development,2018,11:1133-1160
[23]Eyring V,Bony S,Meehl G A,et al.Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)experimental design and organization[J].Geoscientific Model Development,2016,9:1937-1958
[24]Jones C D,Arora V,Friedlingstein P,et al.C4MIP:the Coupled ClimateCarbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project:experimental protocol for CMIP6[J].Geoscientific Model Development,2016,9:2853-2880
[25]Lawrence D M,Hurtt G C,Arneth A,et al.The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project(LUMIP)contribution to CMIP6:rationale and experimental design[J].Geoscientific Model Development,2016,9:2973-2998
[26]O’Neill B C,Tebaldi C,van Vuuren D P,et al.The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project(ScenarioMIP)for CMIP6[J].Geoscientific Model Development,2016,9:3461-3482
[27]Ji D Y,Wang L,Feng J M,et al.Description and basic evaluation of Beijing Normal University Earth System Model(BNU-ESM)version 1[J].Geoscientific Model Development,2014,7:2039-2064
[28]Moore J C,Grinsted A,Guo X,et al.Atlantic hurricane surge response to geoengineering[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2015,112:13794-13799
[29]Cao L,Duan L,Bala G,et al.Simulated long-term climate response to idealized solar geoengineering[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2016,43:2209-2217
[30]Ji D Y,Fang S,Curry C L,et al.Extreme temperature and precipitation response to solar dimming and stratospheric aerosol geoengineering[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,2018,18:10133-10156
[31]Duan L,Cao L,Bala G,et al.Comparison of the fast and slow climate response to three radiation management geoengineering schemes[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,2018,123:11980-12001
(1)http://climatemodeling.bnu.edu.cn。
[2]IPCC.Climate change 2014:impacts,adaptation,and vulnerability[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2014
[3]Keith D W.Geoengineering the climate:history and prospect[J].Annual Review of Energy and the Environment,2000,25,245-284
[4]National Research Council.Climate Intervention[M].Washington DC:National Academies Press,2015
[5]Le Que?re?C,Andrew R M,Friedlingstein R M,et al.Global carbon budget2018[J].Earth System Science Data,2018,10:2141-2194
[6]Eisaman M D,Parajuly K,Tuganov A,et al.CO2 extraction from seawater using bipolar membrane electrodialysis[J].Energy&Environmental Science,2012,5:7346.DOI:0.1039/c2ee03393c
[7]Boysen L R,Lucht W,Gerten D.Trade-offs for food production,nature conservation and climate limit the terrestrial carbon dioxide removal potential[J].Global Change Biology,2017,23:4303-4317
[8]Cao L,Caldeira K.Atmospheric carbon dioxide removal:long-term consequences and commitment[J].Environmental Research Letter,2010,5:24011.DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/024011
[9]Keller D P,Feng E Y,Oschlies A.Potential climate engineering effectiveness and side effects during a high carbon dioxide-emission scenario[J].Nature Communication,2014,5:3304.DOI:10.1038/ncomms4304
[10]Keller D P,Lenton A,Littleton E W,et al.The effects of Carbon Dioxide Removal on the carbon cycle[J].Current Climate Change Reports,2018,4:250-265
[11]Harper A B,Powell T,Cox P M,et al.Land-use emissions play a critical role in land-based mitigation for Paris climate targets[J].Nature Communication,2018,9:2938.DOI:10.1038/s41467-018-05340-z
[12]Muri H.The role of large-scale BECCS in the pursuit of the 1.5℃target:an Earth system model perspective[J].Environmental Research Letter,2018,13:044010.DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/aab324
[13]Smith P,Davis S J,Creutzig F,et al.Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions[J].Nature Climate Change,2015,6:42-50
[14]Bauer N,Calvin K,Emmerling J,et al.Shared socio-economic pathways of the energy sector:quantifying the narratives[J].Global Environmental Change,2017,42:316-330
[15]Jones C D,Ciais P,Davis S J,et al.Simulating the Earth system response to negative emissions[J].Environmental Research Letter,2016,11:95012.DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/095012
[16]Schwinger J,Tjiputra J F.Ocean carbon cycle feedbacks under negative emissions[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2018,45:5062-5070
[17]Rickels W,Reith F,Keller D,et al.Integrated assessment of Carbon Dioxide Removal[J].Earth’s Future,2018,6:565-582
[18]Tokarska K B,Zickfeld K.The effectiveness of net negative carbon dioxide emissions in reversing anthropogenic climate change[J].Environmental Research Letter,2015,10:94013.DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094013
[19]Boucher O,Halloran P R,Burke E J,et al.Reversibility in an Earth system model in response to CO2 concentration changes[J].Environmental Research Letter,2012,7:24013.DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/7/2/024013
[20]Lenton T M,Held H,Kriegler E,et al.Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA,2008,105:1786-1793
[21]Lenton A,Keller D,Pfister P.How will Earth respond to plans for Carbon Dioxide Removal?[J].EOS,2017,98.DOI:10.1029/2017EO068385
[22]Keller D,Lenton A,Scott V,et al.The Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project(CDRMIP):rationale and experimental protocol for CMIP6[J].Geoscientific Model Development,2018,11:1133-1160
[23]Eyring V,Bony S,Meehl G A,et al.Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)experimental design and organization[J].Geoscientific Model Development,2016,9:1937-1958
[24]Jones C D,Arora V,Friedlingstein P,et al.C4MIP:the Coupled ClimateCarbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project:experimental protocol for CMIP6[J].Geoscientific Model Development,2016,9:2853-2880
[25]Lawrence D M,Hurtt G C,Arneth A,et al.The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project(LUMIP)contribution to CMIP6:rationale and experimental design[J].Geoscientific Model Development,2016,9:2973-2998
[26]O’Neill B C,Tebaldi C,van Vuuren D P,et al.The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project(ScenarioMIP)for CMIP6[J].Geoscientific Model Development,2016,9:3461-3482
[27]Ji D Y,Wang L,Feng J M,et al.Description and basic evaluation of Beijing Normal University Earth System Model(BNU-ESM)version 1[J].Geoscientific Model Development,2014,7:2039-2064
[28]Moore J C,Grinsted A,Guo X,et al.Atlantic hurricane surge response to geoengineering[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2015,112:13794-13799
[29]Cao L,Duan L,Bala G,et al.Simulated long-term climate response to idealized solar geoengineering[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2016,43:2209-2217
[30]Ji D Y,Fang S,Curry C L,et al.Extreme temperature and precipitation response to solar dimming and stratospheric aerosol geoengineering[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,2018,18:10133-10156
[31]Duan L,Cao L,Bala G,et al.Comparison of the fast and slow climate response to three radiation management geoengineering schemes[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,2018,123:11980-12001
(1)http://climatemodeling.bnu.edu.cn。
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