中国省域尺度17部门资本存量的时空特征分析
|
摘要
随着灾害强度、频率以及承灾体暴露的增加,自然灾害造成的损失日益严重。资本存量作为承灾体的经济暴露指标之一,是灾害损失评估的前提和基础。针对目前中国缺乏省域尺度长时间序列的经济部门分类的资本存量数据基础,论文通过永续盘存法,建立了2003—2015年中国大陆31省17部门的资本存量数据库,并分析其时空特征。结果显示:①全国总资本存量与灾害直接损失的年际变化均呈增加趋势。省域尺度上,通过相关性分析显示,在99%置信度水平上,两者呈显著正相关(r=0.3)。②时间上,各省17部门资本存量基本也呈增加趋势,但增速不同。在各部门增速最快的省份中,黑龙江省的居民服务、修理和其他服务业增速最快,增长约454.3倍;其次是青海省的租赁和商务服务业(398.3倍)、江苏省的金融业(295.1倍)、安徽省的科学研究和技术服务业(125.1倍)等。③空间上,2015年各省17部门资本存量最多的前4个部门分别是房地产业,工业,交通运输、仓储和邮政业,水利、环境和公共设施管理业,占比均在60%以上;且这4个部门资本存量暴露最多的省份是江苏省和广东省。该结果有助于从时空角度了解各省各部门资本存量暴露情况,为各省灾害风险管理者的防灾减灾工作提供重要的参考价值。
As the intensity and frequency of natural hazard-induced disasters and human and asset exposure increase, the losses caused by these disasters have become increasingly serious. It is particularly important to estimate the capital stock, which is an indicator of economic exposure, in the assessment of disaster losses. At present, time series data of capital stock by economic sectors at the provincial scale in China are largely unavailable. Thus, this study used the perpetual inventory method to establish a capital stock database of 17 sectors for individual provinces in China from 2003 to 2015. The conclusions are as follows: Interannual changes of the total capital stock and direct losses of disasters nationwide both showed an increasing trend. At the provincial scale, the correlation analysis shows that there was a significant positive correlation between them(r= 0.3) at the 99% confidence level. The capital stock of 17 sectors for individual provinces also showed an increasing trend, but the growth rate was different. Among the provinces with the fastest growth rates in the 17 sectors, the growth rate of resident services, repair and other services in Heilongjiang Province was the fastest,which increased 454.3 times. This is followed by leasing and business services in Qinghai Province(398.3 times), finance in Jiangsu Province(295.1 times), and scientific research, technical services and geological exploration in Anhui Province(125.1 times). The top four sectors with the highest capital stock in the 17 sectors in 2015 were real estate; industry; transport, storage and post; and water conservancy, environment and public facilities management, and together their proportion was above 60%. The provinces with the most capital stock in these four sectors were Jiangsu and Guangdong. The study results are helpful for further understanding exposure of capital stock in individual provinces and various sectors from a temporal and spatial perspective, and providing important references for disaster prevention and mitigation work of provincial disaster risk managers.
As the intensity and frequency of natural hazard-induced disasters and human and asset exposure increase, the losses caused by these disasters have become increasingly serious. It is particularly important to estimate the capital stock, which is an indicator of economic exposure, in the assessment of disaster losses. At present, time series data of capital stock by economic sectors at the provincial scale in China are largely unavailable. Thus, this study used the perpetual inventory method to establish a capital stock database of 17 sectors for individual provinces in China from 2003 to 2015. The conclusions are as follows: Interannual changes of the total capital stock and direct losses of disasters nationwide both showed an increasing trend. At the provincial scale, the correlation analysis shows that there was a significant positive correlation between them(r= 0.3) at the 99% confidence level. The capital stock of 17 sectors for individual provinces also showed an increasing trend, but the growth rate was different. Among the provinces with the fastest growth rates in the 17 sectors, the growth rate of resident services, repair and other services in Heilongjiang Province was the fastest,which increased 454.3 times. This is followed by leasing and business services in Qinghai Province(398.3 times), finance in Jiangsu Province(295.1 times), and scientific research, technical services and geological exploration in Anhui Province(125.1 times). The top four sectors with the highest capital stock in the 17 sectors in 2015 were real estate; industry; transport, storage and post; and water conservancy, environment and public facilities management, and together their proportion was above 60%. The provinces with the most capital stock in these four sectors were Jiangsu and Guangdong. The study results are helpful for further understanding exposure of capital stock in individual provinces and various sectors from a temporal and spatial perspective, and providing important references for disaster prevention and mitigation work of provincial disaster risk managers.
引文
陈昌兵.2014.可变折旧率估计及资本存量测算[J].经济研究,49(12):72-85.[Chen C B.2014.Estimation of variable depreciation rate and measurement of capital stock.Economic Research Journal,49(12):72-85.]
古明明,张勇.2012.中国资本存量的再估算和分解[J].经济理论与经济管理,(12):29-41.[Gu M M,Zhang Y.2012.Re-measurement of Chinese capital stock.Economic Theory and Business Management,(12):29-41.]
黄勇峰,任若恩,刘晓生.2002.中国制造业资本存量永续盘存法估计[J].经济学(季刊),(1):377-396.[Huang Y F,Ren R E,Liu X S.2002.Capital stock estimates in Chinese manufacturing by perpetual inventory approach.China Economic Quarterly,(1):377-396.]
单豪杰.2008.中国资本存量K的再估算:1952-2006年[J].数量经济技术经济研究,25(10):17-31.[Shan H J.2008.Restimating the capital stock of China:1952-2006.The Journal of Quantitative&Technical Economics,25(10):17-31.]
沈利生,乔红芳.2015.重估中国的资本存量:1952-2012[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,55(4):122-133,252.[Shen L S,Qiao H F.2015.Re-estimating China's capital stock(1952-2012).Jilin University Journal:Social Sciences Edition,55(4):122-133,252.]
孙辉,支大林,李宏瑾.2010.对中国各省资本存量的估计及典型性事实:1978-2008[J].广东金融学院学报,25(3):103-116,129.[Sun H,Zhi D L,Li H J.2010.Estimate of the capital stock of provinces in China and the typical fact from 1978 to 2008.Journal of Finance and Economics,25(3):103-116,129.]
田友春.2016.中国分行业资本存量估算:1990-2014年[J].数量经济技术经济研究,33(6):3-21,76.[Tian Y C.2016.Estimation on capital stock of sectors in China:1990-2014.The Journal of Quantitative&Technical Economics,33(6):3-21,76.]
王金田,王学真,高峰.2007.全国及分省份农业资本存量K的估算[J].农业技术经济,(4):64-70.[Wang J T,Wang XZ,Gao F.2007.Estimation of agricultural capital stock Kin China and provinces.Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,(4):64-70.]
王小鲁.2000.中国经济增长的可持续性与制度变革[J].经济研究,(7):3-15.[Wang X L.2000.The sustainability and institutional change of China's economic growth.Economic Research Journal,(7):3-15.]
翁宏标,王斌会.2012.中国分行业资本存量的估计[J].统计与决策,(12):89-92.[Weng H B,Wang B H.2012.Estimation on capital stock of sectors in China.Statistics and Decision,(12):89-92.]
吴吉东,傅宇,张洁,等.2014.1949-2013年中国气象灾害灾情变化趋势分析[J].自然资源学报,29(9):1520-1530.[Wu J D,Fu Y,Zhang J,et al.2014.Meteorological disaster trend analysis in China:1949-2013.Journal of Natural Resource,29(9):1520-1530.]
谢群,潘玉君.2011.中国内地各省区1952-2009年实物资本存量估算[J].当代经济,(1):122-128.[Xie Q,Pan Y J.2011.Estimate of the physical capital stock of provinces in China from 1952 to 2009.Contemporary Economics,(1):122-128.]
薛俊波,王铮.2007.中国17部门资本存量的核算研究[J].统计研究,(7):49-54.[Xue J B,Wang Z.2007.A research on the capital calculation of 17 industries of China.Statistical Research,(7):49-54.]
张军,章元.2003.对中国资本存量K的再估计[J].经济研究,(7):35-43.[Zhang J,Zhang Y.2003.Recalculating the capital of China and a review of Li and Tang's article.Economic Research Journal,(7):35-43.]
赵庆良,许世远,王军,等.2007.沿海城市风暴潮灾害风险评估研究进展[J].地理科学进展,26(5):32-40.[Zhao QL,Xu S Y,Wang J,et al.2007.A review of risk assessment of storm surge on coastal cities.Progress in Geography,26(5):32-40.]
中国气象局.2009.暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划技术规范[S].北京:中国气象局.[China Meteorological Administration.2009.Technical specification for risk zoning rainstorm and flood disaster.Beijing,China:China Meteorological Administration.]
宗振利,廖直东.2014.中国省际三次产业资本存量再估算:1978-2011[J].贵州财经大学学报,(3):8-16.[Zong ZL,Liao Z D.2014.Estimates of fixed capital stock by sector and region:1978-2011.Journal of Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,(3):8-16.]
Bouwer L M.2013.Projections of future extreme weather losses under changes in climate and exposure[J].Risk Analysis,33(5):915-930.
Chow G C.1993.Capital formation and economic growth in China[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,108(3):809-842.
Goldsmith R W.1951.A perpetual inventory of national wealth[M]//NBER.Studies in income and wealth.Cambridge,MA:National Bureau of Economic Research.
IPCC.2012.Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation:Special report of working groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M].Cambridge,UK:Cambridge University Press.
Islam N,Dai E,Sakamoto H.2006.Role of TFP in China's growth[J].Asian Economic Journal,20(2):127-159.
Kreibich H,Seifert I,Merz B,et al.2010.Development of FLEMOcs:A new model for the estimation of flood losses in the commercial sector[J].Hydrological Sciences Journal,55(8):1302-1314.
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD).2009.Measuring capital OECD manual[R].Paris,France:Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Seifert I,Thieken A H,Merz M,et al.2010.Estimation of industrial and commercial asset values for hazard risk assessment[J].Natural Hazards,52(2):453-479.
Shrestha B B,Okazumi T,Miyamoto M,et al.2016.Flood damage assessment in the Pampanga River Basin of the Philippines[J].Journal of Flood Risk Management,9(4):355-369.
United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction(UNISDR).2013.From shared risk to shared value:The business case for disaster risk reduction[R].Geneva,Switzerland:United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction.
Wu J D,Li N,Shi P J.2014.Benchmark wealth capital stock estimations across China's 344 prefectures:1978 to 2012[J].China Economic Review,31:288-302.
Wu J D,Li Y,Li N,et al.2018.Development of an asset value map for disaster risk assessment in China by spatial disaggregation using ancillary remote sensing data[J].Risk Analysis,38(1):17-30.
Wu Y R.2016.China's capital stock series by region and sector[J].Frontiers of Economics in China,11(1):156.
Young A.2003.Gold into base metals:Productivity growth in the People's Republic of China during the reform period[J].Journal of Political Economy,111(6):1220-1261.
古明明,张勇.2012.中国资本存量的再估算和分解[J].经济理论与经济管理,(12):29-41.[Gu M M,Zhang Y.2012.Re-measurement of Chinese capital stock.Economic Theory and Business Management,(12):29-41.]
黄勇峰,任若恩,刘晓生.2002.中国制造业资本存量永续盘存法估计[J].经济学(季刊),(1):377-396.[Huang Y F,Ren R E,Liu X S.2002.Capital stock estimates in Chinese manufacturing by perpetual inventory approach.China Economic Quarterly,(1):377-396.]
单豪杰.2008.中国资本存量K的再估算:1952-2006年[J].数量经济技术经济研究,25(10):17-31.[Shan H J.2008.Restimating the capital stock of China:1952-2006.The Journal of Quantitative&Technical Economics,25(10):17-31.]
沈利生,乔红芳.2015.重估中国的资本存量:1952-2012[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,55(4):122-133,252.[Shen L S,Qiao H F.2015.Re-estimating China's capital stock(1952-2012).Jilin University Journal:Social Sciences Edition,55(4):122-133,252.]
孙辉,支大林,李宏瑾.2010.对中国各省资本存量的估计及典型性事实:1978-2008[J].广东金融学院学报,25(3):103-116,129.[Sun H,Zhi D L,Li H J.2010.Estimate of the capital stock of provinces in China and the typical fact from 1978 to 2008.Journal of Finance and Economics,25(3):103-116,129.]
田友春.2016.中国分行业资本存量估算:1990-2014年[J].数量经济技术经济研究,33(6):3-21,76.[Tian Y C.2016.Estimation on capital stock of sectors in China:1990-2014.The Journal of Quantitative&Technical Economics,33(6):3-21,76.]
王金田,王学真,高峰.2007.全国及分省份农业资本存量K的估算[J].农业技术经济,(4):64-70.[Wang J T,Wang XZ,Gao F.2007.Estimation of agricultural capital stock Kin China and provinces.Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,(4):64-70.]
王小鲁.2000.中国经济增长的可持续性与制度变革[J].经济研究,(7):3-15.[Wang X L.2000.The sustainability and institutional change of China's economic growth.Economic Research Journal,(7):3-15.]
翁宏标,王斌会.2012.中国分行业资本存量的估计[J].统计与决策,(12):89-92.[Weng H B,Wang B H.2012.Estimation on capital stock of sectors in China.Statistics and Decision,(12):89-92.]
吴吉东,傅宇,张洁,等.2014.1949-2013年中国气象灾害灾情变化趋势分析[J].自然资源学报,29(9):1520-1530.[Wu J D,Fu Y,Zhang J,et al.2014.Meteorological disaster trend analysis in China:1949-2013.Journal of Natural Resource,29(9):1520-1530.]
谢群,潘玉君.2011.中国内地各省区1952-2009年实物资本存量估算[J].当代经济,(1):122-128.[Xie Q,Pan Y J.2011.Estimate of the physical capital stock of provinces in China from 1952 to 2009.Contemporary Economics,(1):122-128.]
薛俊波,王铮.2007.中国17部门资本存量的核算研究[J].统计研究,(7):49-54.[Xue J B,Wang Z.2007.A research on the capital calculation of 17 industries of China.Statistical Research,(7):49-54.]
张军,章元.2003.对中国资本存量K的再估计[J].经济研究,(7):35-43.[Zhang J,Zhang Y.2003.Recalculating the capital of China and a review of Li and Tang's article.Economic Research Journal,(7):35-43.]
赵庆良,许世远,王军,等.2007.沿海城市风暴潮灾害风险评估研究进展[J].地理科学进展,26(5):32-40.[Zhao QL,Xu S Y,Wang J,et al.2007.A review of risk assessment of storm surge on coastal cities.Progress in Geography,26(5):32-40.]
中国气象局.2009.暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划技术规范[S].北京:中国气象局.[China Meteorological Administration.2009.Technical specification for risk zoning rainstorm and flood disaster.Beijing,China:China Meteorological Administration.]
宗振利,廖直东.2014.中国省际三次产业资本存量再估算:1978-2011[J].贵州财经大学学报,(3):8-16.[Zong ZL,Liao Z D.2014.Estimates of fixed capital stock by sector and region:1978-2011.Journal of Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,(3):8-16.]
Bouwer L M.2013.Projections of future extreme weather losses under changes in climate and exposure[J].Risk Analysis,33(5):915-930.
Chow G C.1993.Capital formation and economic growth in China[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,108(3):809-842.
Goldsmith R W.1951.A perpetual inventory of national wealth[M]//NBER.Studies in income and wealth.Cambridge,MA:National Bureau of Economic Research.
IPCC.2012.Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation:Special report of working groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M].Cambridge,UK:Cambridge University Press.
Islam N,Dai E,Sakamoto H.2006.Role of TFP in China's growth[J].Asian Economic Journal,20(2):127-159.
Kreibich H,Seifert I,Merz B,et al.2010.Development of FLEMOcs:A new model for the estimation of flood losses in the commercial sector[J].Hydrological Sciences Journal,55(8):1302-1314.
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD).2009.Measuring capital OECD manual[R].Paris,France:Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Seifert I,Thieken A H,Merz M,et al.2010.Estimation of industrial and commercial asset values for hazard risk assessment[J].Natural Hazards,52(2):453-479.
Shrestha B B,Okazumi T,Miyamoto M,et al.2016.Flood damage assessment in the Pampanga River Basin of the Philippines[J].Journal of Flood Risk Management,9(4):355-369.
United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction(UNISDR).2013.From shared risk to shared value:The business case for disaster risk reduction[R].Geneva,Switzerland:United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction.
Wu J D,Li N,Shi P J.2014.Benchmark wealth capital stock estimations across China's 344 prefectures:1978 to 2012[J].China Economic Review,31:288-302.
Wu J D,Li Y,Li N,et al.2018.Development of an asset value map for disaster risk assessment in China by spatial disaggregation using ancillary remote sensing data[J].Risk Analysis,38(1):17-30.
Wu Y R.2016.China's capital stock series by region and sector[J].Frontiers of Economics in China,11(1):156.
Young A.2003.Gold into base metals:Productivity growth in the People's Republic of China during the reform period[J].Journal of Political Economy,111(6):1220-1261.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |