基于StockBased模型的废旧手机资源开发利用潜力评价
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摘要
为了解决我国小型IT通讯设备(以手机为例)统计评价体系尚不健全的问题,综合采用Stock Based模型对我国废旧手机资源化回收利用进行全面的评价,将Weibull分布模型引入至Stock Based模型中对其中产品寿命分布进行修正,同时将Logistics分布模型引入至Stock Based模型中对时间维度进行扩展,预测了我国废旧手机的产生量和淘汰量;在此基础上,延伸探讨手机产品再利用、零部件回收利用、资源再生3个维度的资源经济及市场开发利用水平。结果表明:2017年我国用于手机产品再利用、零部件回收利用、资源再生环节的市场经济价值约是162. 368亿元、2. 164亿元、1. 054亿元,这表明现阶段废旧手机回收商业模式并不是建立在材料价值基础上的,在量化和比较废旧手机开发利用城市矿产的可持续供应上应尽量延长或维持产品的使用寿命,尽早构建互联网+新型回收模式,尽快建设废旧手机在线交易体系,尽力完善生产者责任延伸制度,逐渐找寻正向与逆向供应链相互契合的新商业模式。
This paper is inclined to make an evaluation and exploration of the utilization situation and potential substitution of the mobile phones in our country based on the stock-based model comprehensively for their recycling and utilization. The purpose of the paper can be said to solve the problem that the statistical evaluation system of China 's mini-IT communication means and facilities( taking the mobile phone market and uses as a case study sample) has not yet been satisfactory. To achieve the said purpose,we have first of all introduced the Weibull distribution mode into the Stock Based model in hoping to modify the product life distribution. And,next,we have managed to bring the Logistics distribution model into the Stock Based model to expand the time dimension for the reason that the Stock Based model can help to forecast and predict the situation of the ownership of the mobile phones,the current sales volume,the phase-out and the scrap volume during the period of the 30 years from 2000 to 2030 at home in China. And,furthermore,on the afforementioned basis,it would be possible to make it clear the resource economy and the market development level from the following 3 points of view,that is,the mobile phone production,the recycling situation of the mobile phone parts and the resource regeneration of the used phones. The above said statistical investigation results show that the market economic system and the outlook of China's mobile phone reuse,the recycling and resource regeneration of the used phones stand about 16 236. 8 million RMB Yuan,216. 4 million RMB Yuan,105. 4 million RMB Yuan for the year of 2017,which signifies that the current business model of recycling the used mobile phones has not been well constructed based on the recycled phone materials,rather,the key elements for such recycled application are based on looking for a new trading mode. For example,in quantifying and comparing the sustainable supply of the wasted mobile phones to develop and utilize the urban minerals,the service life of the products should be extended or maintained as early as possible,so that the new "Internet + "recycling model should be developed as soon as possible,whereas the original mobile phones online trading system has also to be reconstructed as quickly as possible. Thus,it can be expected to extend,strengthen and heighten the quality and quantity of the products. At the same time,the mobile phone companies and firms should take up more responsibilities to improve their service and gradually renew their business model in correspondence with the reverse supply chain to their consumers.
This paper is inclined to make an evaluation and exploration of the utilization situation and potential substitution of the mobile phones in our country based on the stock-based model comprehensively for their recycling and utilization. The purpose of the paper can be said to solve the problem that the statistical evaluation system of China 's mini-IT communication means and facilities( taking the mobile phone market and uses as a case study sample) has not yet been satisfactory. To achieve the said purpose,we have first of all introduced the Weibull distribution mode into the Stock Based model in hoping to modify the product life distribution. And,next,we have managed to bring the Logistics distribution model into the Stock Based model to expand the time dimension for the reason that the Stock Based model can help to forecast and predict the situation of the ownership of the mobile phones,the current sales volume,the phase-out and the scrap volume during the period of the 30 years from 2000 to 2030 at home in China. And,furthermore,on the afforementioned basis,it would be possible to make it clear the resource economy and the market development level from the following 3 points of view,that is,the mobile phone production,the recycling situation of the mobile phone parts and the resource regeneration of the used phones. The above said statistical investigation results show that the market economic system and the outlook of China's mobile phone reuse,the recycling and resource regeneration of the used phones stand about 16 236. 8 million RMB Yuan,216. 4 million RMB Yuan,105. 4 million RMB Yuan for the year of 2017,which signifies that the current business model of recycling the used mobile phones has not been well constructed based on the recycled phone materials,rather,the key elements for such recycled application are based on looking for a new trading mode. For example,in quantifying and comparing the sustainable supply of the wasted mobile phones to develop and utilize the urban minerals,the service life of the products should be extended or maintained as early as possible,so that the new "Internet + "recycling model should be developed as soon as possible,whereas the original mobile phones online trading system has also to be reconstructed as quickly as possible. Thus,it can be expected to extend,strengthen and heighten the quality and quantity of the products. At the same time,the mobile phone companies and firms should take up more responsibilities to improve their service and gradually renew their business model in correspondence with the reverse supply chain to their consumers.
引文
[1] HUANG Huiting(黄慧婷),WANG Tao(王涛),TONG Xin(童昕). Reverse logistics space analysis of mobile phone based on EPR[J]. Journal of Peking University:Natural Science Edition(北京大学学报:自然科学版),2018,54(5):1085-1094.
[2] Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People's Republic of China(中华人民共和国工业和信息化部). Major indicators of the communications industry completed in 2017(2017年通信业主要指标完成情况)[EB/OL].[2018-02-02]. http://www. miit. gov. cn/n1146312/n1146904/n1648372/c6048631/content. html.
[3] Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People's Republic of China(中华人民共和国工业和信息化部). Mobile phone penetration rate broke through 1billion for 4G users for the first time(移动电话普及率第一次破百4G用户近10亿)[EB/OL].[2018-02-07].https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s? id=1591711674837054057&wfr=spider&for=pc.
[4] POLAK M,DRAPALOVA L. Estimation of end of life mobile phones generation:the case study of the Czech Republic[J]. Waste Management,2012, 32(8):1583-1591.
[5] LIU Meilian(刘枚莲),ZHONG Hailing(钟海玲),WANG Yuanyuan(王媛媛). Research on prediction of electronic waste quantity based on GM(1,1)-stanford estimation model[J]. China Market(中国市场),2015,103(12):95-98.
[6] LI Bo(李博),YANG Jianxin(杨建新),LUBin(吕彬). Temporal and spatial distribution of the production of used mobile phones in China[J]. Journal of Environmental Science(环境科学学报),2015,35(12):4095-4101.
[7] WANG Jianjun(王建军),WU Zhiqiang(吴志强). Delimiting the stages of urbanization growth process[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences(地理学报),2009,64(2):177-188.
[8] DWIVEDY M,MITTAL R K. Future trends in computer waste generation in India[J]. Waste Management,2010,30(11):2265-2277.
[9] OGUCHI M,MURAKAMI S,TASAKI T. Lifespan of commodities,part II[J]. Journal of Industrial Ecology,2010,14(4):613-626.
[10] ZHANG H,WEN Z. The consumption and recycling collection system of PET bottles:a case study of Beijing,China[J]. Waste Management,2014,34(6):987-998.
[11] YU J,WILLIAMS E,JU M. Forecasting global generation of obsolete personal computers[J]. Environmental Science&Technology,2010,44(9):3232-3237.
[12] YANG Y,WILLIAMS E. Logistic model-based forecast of sales and generation of obsolete computers in the U.S.[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change,2009,76(8):1105-1114.
[13] LI Jinhui(李金惠),WEN Xuefeng(温雪峰). Electronic waste treatment technology(电子废弃物处理技术)[M]. Beijing:China Environmental Science Press,2006.
[14] LI Yun(李芸),ZHANG Mingshun(张明顺). Research on eco-design strategy of electrical and electronic products based on LCA[J]. Environment and Sustainable Development(环境与可持续发展),2016(1):90-94.
[15] LI Xiaohua(李晓华). Modularization,module re-integration and reconstruction of industrial structure-taking the sise of"mountain"mobile phone as an example[J]. Chinese Industrial Economy(中国工业经济),2010,268(7):136-145.
[16] YIN Jianfeng(尹建锋). Life cycle assessment of wasted mobile phone resource(废弃手机资源化的生命周期评价)[D]. Tianjin:Nankai University,2015.
[17] Ministry of Economic Affairs(经济部). Current status and trend analysis of mobile phone parts production[R]. Taipei:Ministry of Economic Affairs,2003.
[18] HUISMAN J,STEVELS A,STOBBE I. Eco-efficiency considerations on the end-of-life of consumer electronic products[J]. Electronics Packaging Manufacturing,2004,27(1):9-25.
[19] SULLIVAN D E. Recycled cell phones-a treasure trove of valuable metals[C]. USA:Geological Survey(U. S.),2006.
[20] LI Jinhui(李金惠),LIU Lili(刘丽丽). Environmental risk assessment and management of waste disposal and disposal in life and consumption process(生活与消费过程废弃物处理处置环境风险评估及管理)[M]. Beijing:China Environment Press,2014.
[2] Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People's Republic of China(中华人民共和国工业和信息化部). Major indicators of the communications industry completed in 2017(2017年通信业主要指标完成情况)[EB/OL].[2018-02-02]. http://www. miit. gov. cn/n1146312/n1146904/n1648372/c6048631/content. html.
[3] Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People's Republic of China(中华人民共和国工业和信息化部). Mobile phone penetration rate broke through 1billion for 4G users for the first time(移动电话普及率第一次破百4G用户近10亿)[EB/OL].[2018-02-07].https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s? id=1591711674837054057&wfr=spider&for=pc.
[4] POLAK M,DRAPALOVA L. Estimation of end of life mobile phones generation:the case study of the Czech Republic[J]. Waste Management,2012, 32(8):1583-1591.
[5] LIU Meilian(刘枚莲),ZHONG Hailing(钟海玲),WANG Yuanyuan(王媛媛). Research on prediction of electronic waste quantity based on GM(1,1)-stanford estimation model[J]. China Market(中国市场),2015,103(12):95-98.
[6] LI Bo(李博),YANG Jianxin(杨建新),LUBin(吕彬). Temporal and spatial distribution of the production of used mobile phones in China[J]. Journal of Environmental Science(环境科学学报),2015,35(12):4095-4101.
[7] WANG Jianjun(王建军),WU Zhiqiang(吴志强). Delimiting the stages of urbanization growth process[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences(地理学报),2009,64(2):177-188.
[8] DWIVEDY M,MITTAL R K. Future trends in computer waste generation in India[J]. Waste Management,2010,30(11):2265-2277.
[9] OGUCHI M,MURAKAMI S,TASAKI T. Lifespan of commodities,part II[J]. Journal of Industrial Ecology,2010,14(4):613-626.
[10] ZHANG H,WEN Z. The consumption and recycling collection system of PET bottles:a case study of Beijing,China[J]. Waste Management,2014,34(6):987-998.
[11] YU J,WILLIAMS E,JU M. Forecasting global generation of obsolete personal computers[J]. Environmental Science&Technology,2010,44(9):3232-3237.
[12] YANG Y,WILLIAMS E. Logistic model-based forecast of sales and generation of obsolete computers in the U.S.[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change,2009,76(8):1105-1114.
[13] LI Jinhui(李金惠),WEN Xuefeng(温雪峰). Electronic waste treatment technology(电子废弃物处理技术)[M]. Beijing:China Environmental Science Press,2006.
[14] LI Yun(李芸),ZHANG Mingshun(张明顺). Research on eco-design strategy of electrical and electronic products based on LCA[J]. Environment and Sustainable Development(环境与可持续发展),2016(1):90-94.
[15] LI Xiaohua(李晓华). Modularization,module re-integration and reconstruction of industrial structure-taking the sise of"mountain"mobile phone as an example[J]. Chinese Industrial Economy(中国工业经济),2010,268(7):136-145.
[16] YIN Jianfeng(尹建锋). Life cycle assessment of wasted mobile phone resource(废弃手机资源化的生命周期评价)[D]. Tianjin:Nankai University,2015.
[17] Ministry of Economic Affairs(经济部). Current status and trend analysis of mobile phone parts production[R]. Taipei:Ministry of Economic Affairs,2003.
[18] HUISMAN J,STEVELS A,STOBBE I. Eco-efficiency considerations on the end-of-life of consumer electronic products[J]. Electronics Packaging Manufacturing,2004,27(1):9-25.
[19] SULLIVAN D E. Recycled cell phones-a treasure trove of valuable metals[C]. USA:Geological Survey(U. S.),2006.
[20] LI Jinhui(李金惠),LIU Lili(刘丽丽). Environmental risk assessment and management of waste disposal and disposal in life and consumption process(生活与消费过程废弃物处理处置环境风险评估及管理)[M]. Beijing:China Environment Press,2014.
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