基于GWR模型的东江水质空间分异与水生态功能分区验证
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摘要
流域水生态功能分区研究是我国正在开展的一项重要工作,如何验证分区结果的合理性,是当前亟待解决的问题。采用地理加权回归(GWR)模型评估流域特征对东江水质的影响,验证水质及流域影响空间差异是否与一二级水生态功能分区结果吻合,并对比了GWR模型与普通最小二乘(OLS)模型性能,讨论了GWR在分区验证方面的应用价值及不足。结果显示:1)水质指标以及GWR模型局部解释率(Local R~2)均在一二级水生态功能分区间存在显著差异;2)相比OLS模型,GWR模型校正R~2更高,残差空间自相关指数Moran′s I更低。研究表明东江水生态功能分区结果能合理反映水陆耦合关系,有效解释水质空间差异。此外建议选择总氮(TN)而非溶解氧(DO)和总磷(TP)作为分区验证指标。GWR模型在分区结果验证中具有广泛应用前景。降低数据空间自相关影响及改善距离测度方法是未来GWR模型研究的难点问题。
Water ecological function zoning in a watershed is an important task to perform in our country. How to validate the rationality of the zoning results has become an urgent problem to solve. In the study, we used the geographically weighted regression model(GWR) to evaluate the impact of watershed characteristics on water quality in the Dongjiang River. Our aims were to verify whether the spatial differences in impacts of watershed characteristics on water quality accorded with the results of primary and secondary water ecological function zoning, and to explore the possibility and limitation of the GWR model to validate the rationality of the zoning results according to a comparison of the results of the GWR model with the ordinary least squares(OLS) model. The results showed that:(1) Water quality indexes and Local R~2 showed significant differences among the primary and secondary water ecological function zones, respectively.(2) Compared with the OLS model, there was a higher adjusted R~2 and lower Moran′s I in the GWR model. These findings indicated that the results of water ecological function zoning could reflect the relationship between land and streams and the spatial differences in water quality in the Dongjiang River. In addition, the total nitrogen(TN) was found to better verify the zoning results than the dissolved oxygen(DO) and the total phosphorus(TP). The GWR model has wide application prospects in verifying zoning results, but a difficult problem faced by research into GWR models is reducing the spatial autocorrelation and improve the distance measure in the future.
Water ecological function zoning in a watershed is an important task to perform in our country. How to validate the rationality of the zoning results has become an urgent problem to solve. In the study, we used the geographically weighted regression model(GWR) to evaluate the impact of watershed characteristics on water quality in the Dongjiang River. Our aims were to verify whether the spatial differences in impacts of watershed characteristics on water quality accorded with the results of primary and secondary water ecological function zoning, and to explore the possibility and limitation of the GWR model to validate the rationality of the zoning results according to a comparison of the results of the GWR model with the ordinary least squares(OLS) model. The results showed that:(1) Water quality indexes and Local R~2 showed significant differences among the primary and secondary water ecological function zones, respectively.(2) Compared with the OLS model, there was a higher adjusted R~2 and lower Moran′s I in the GWR model. These findings indicated that the results of water ecological function zoning could reflect the relationship between land and streams and the spatial differences in water quality in the Dongjiang River. In addition, the total nitrogen(TN) was found to better verify the zoning results than the dissolved oxygen(DO) and the total phosphorus(TP). The GWR model has wide application prospects in verifying zoning results, but a difficult problem faced by research into GWR models is reducing the spatial autocorrelation and improve the distance measure in the future.
引文
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[19] Wang X P,Zhang F.Multi-scale analysis of the relationship between landscape patterns and a water quality index (WQI) based on a stepwise linear regression (SLR) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) in the Ebinur Lake oasis.Environmental Science and Pollution Research,2018,25(7):7033- 7048.
[20] Chen Q,Mei K,Dahlgren R A,Wang T,Gong J,Zhang M H.Impacts of land use and population density on seasonal surface water quality using a modified geographically weighted regression.Science of the Total Environment,2016,572:450- 466.
[21] 江源,廖剑宇,刘全儒,康慕谊.东江河流生态健康评价研究.北京:科学出版社,2015.
[22] 吕乐婷,彭秋志,廖剑宇,江源,康慕谊.近50年东江流域降雨径流变化趋势研究.资源科学,2013,35(3):514- 520.
[23] Grayson R B,Gippel C J,Finlayson B L,Hart B T.Catchment-wide impacts on water quality:the use of ‘snapshot’ sampling during stable flow.Journal of Hydrology,1997,199(1/2):121- 134.
[24] Ding J,Jiang Y,Fu L,Liu Q,Peng Q Z,Kang M Y.Impacts of land use on surface water quality in a subtropical river basin:a case study of the Dongjiang River basin,Southeastern China.Water,2015,7(8):4427- 4445.
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[27] 国家环境保护总局.水和废水监测分析方法(第四版).北京:中国环境科学出版社,2002.
[28] Chang H.Spatial analysis of water quality trends in the Han River basin,South Korea.Water Research,2008,42(13):3285- 3304.
[29] Yang X Y,Jin W.GIS-based spatial regression and prediction of water quality in river networks:a case study in Iowa.Journal of Environmental Management,2010,91(10):1943- 1951.
[30] 于磊,赵彦伟,汪思慧,田竹君.不同时空尺度下流域景观格局与水质的相关性研究——以嫩江右岸典型子流域为例.水土保持通报,2011,31(5):254- 258.
[31] 任斐鹏,江源,熊兴,董满宇,王博.东江流域近20年土地利用变化的时空差异特征分析.资源科学,2011,33(1):143- 152.
[32] McGarigal K,Cushman S A,Ene E.FRAGSTATS v4:spatial pattern analysis program for categorical and continuous maps.Computer Software Program Produced by the Authors at the University of Massachusetts,Amherst.[2017-08- 25].http://www.umass.edu/landeco/research/fragstats/fragstats.html.
[33] USDA NRCS.Part 630 Hydrology National Engineering Handbook,Chapter 7,Hydrologic Soil Groups.Washington D C,U.S.:Department of Agriculture,Natural Resources Conservation Service,2009.
[34] 吕乐婷,彭秋志,郭媛媛,刘颖慧,江源.基于SWAT模型的东江流域径流模拟.自然资源学报,2014,29(10):1746- 1757.
[35] 何洪林,于贵瑞,牛栋.复杂地形条件下的太阳资源辐射计算方法研究.资源科学,2003,25(1):78- 85.
[36] Fu P,Rich P M.A geometric solar radiation model with applications in agriculture and forestry.Computers and Electronics in Agriculture,2002,37(1- 3):25- 35.
[37] Koenker R.A note on studentizing a test for heteroscedasticity.Journal of Econometrics,1981,17(1):107- 112.
[2] Omernik J M.Ecoregions of the conterminous United States.Annals of the Association of American Geographers,1987,77(1):118- 125.
[3] 孙然好,李卓,陈利顶.中国生态区划研究进展:从格局、功能到服务.生态学报,2018,38(15):5271- 5278.
[4] Gannon R W,Osmond D L,Humenik F J,Gale J A,Spooner J.Goal-oriented agricultural water quality legislation.Journal of the American Water Resources Association,1996,32(3):437- 450.
[5] 孟伟,张远,郑丙辉.辽河流域水生态分区研究.环境科学学报,2007,27(6):911- 918.
[6] 黄艺,蔡佳亮,郑维爽,周丰,郭怀成.流域水生态功能分区以及区划方法的研究进展.生态学杂志,2009,28(3):542- 548.
[7] 黄晓霞,江源,熊兴,和克俭,张勇.水生态功能分区研究.水资源保护,2012,28(3):22- 27.
[8] Sheng S,Xu C,Wen T,Wan Y,An S Q.Division design of water eco-functioning of the river basin.Clean Soil Air Water,2015,43(12):1640- 1646.
[9] Wang S Y,Cheng D S,Mao Z P,Liu C,Yang S Z,Wang L,Wu J P,Du Y L.An aquatic ecoregion delineation approach based on GIS and spatial environmental data in Heihe River Basin,Northwestern China.Quaternary International,2015,380- 381:272- 281.
[10] 孟伟,张远,郑丙辉.水生态区划方法及其在中国的应用前景.水科学进展,2007,18(2):293- 300.
[11] 唐涛,蔡庆华.水生态功能分区研究中的基本问题.生态学报,2010,30(22):6255- 6263.
[12] 王世岩,毛战坡,王亮,杜彦良,杨素珍.黑河流域水生态系统异质性与环境因子关系研究.水资源与水工程学报,2014,25(6):7- 12.
[13] 孙然好,程先,陈利顶.基于陆地-水生态系统耦合的海河流域水生态功能分区.生态学报,2017,37(24):8445- 8455.
[14] 陈强,朱慧敏,何溶,Dahlgren R A,张明华,梅琨.基于地理加权回归模型评估土地利用对地表水质的影响.环境科学学报,2015,35(5):1571- 1580.
[15] Brunsdon C,Fotheringham S,Charlton M.Geographically weighted regression-modelling spatial non-stationarity.Journal of the Royal Statistical Society.Series D,1998,47(3):431- 443.
[16] Tu J.Spatially varying relationships between land use and water quality across an urbanization gradient explored by geographically weighted regression.Applied Geography,2011,31(1):376- 392.
[17] Sun Y W,Guo Q H,Liu J,Wang R.Scale effects on spatially varying relationships between urban landscape patterns and water quality.Environmental Management,2014,54(2):272- 287.
[18] Tu J,Xia Z G.Examining spatially varying relationships between land use and water quality using geographically weighted regression I:model design and evaluation.Science of the Total Environment,2008,407(1):358- 378.
[19] Wang X P,Zhang F.Multi-scale analysis of the relationship between landscape patterns and a water quality index (WQI) based on a stepwise linear regression (SLR) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) in the Ebinur Lake oasis.Environmental Science and Pollution Research,2018,25(7):7033- 7048.
[20] Chen Q,Mei K,Dahlgren R A,Wang T,Gong J,Zhang M H.Impacts of land use and population density on seasonal surface water quality using a modified geographically weighted regression.Science of the Total Environment,2016,572:450- 466.
[21] 江源,廖剑宇,刘全儒,康慕谊.东江河流生态健康评价研究.北京:科学出版社,2015.
[22] 吕乐婷,彭秋志,廖剑宇,江源,康慕谊.近50年东江流域降雨径流变化趋势研究.资源科学,2013,35(3):514- 520.
[23] Grayson R B,Gippel C J,Finlayson B L,Hart B T.Catchment-wide impacts on water quality:the use of ‘snapshot’ sampling during stable flow.Journal of Hydrology,1997,199(1/2):121- 134.
[24] Ding J,Jiang Y,Fu L,Liu Q,Peng Q Z,Kang M Y.Impacts of land use on surface water quality in a subtropical river basin:a case study of the Dongjiang River basin,Southeastern China.Water,2015,7(8):4427- 4445.
[25] Gburek W J,Folmar G J.Flow and chemical contributions to streamflow in an upland watershed:a baseflow survey.Journal of Hydrology,1999,217(1/2):1- 18.
[26] Lyon S W,Seibert J,Lembo A J,Steenhuis T S,Walter M T.Incorporating landscape characteristics in a distance metric for interpolating between observations of stream water chemistry.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2008,12(5):1229- 1239.
[27] 国家环境保护总局.水和废水监测分析方法(第四版).北京:中国环境科学出版社,2002.
[28] Chang H.Spatial analysis of water quality trends in the Han River basin,South Korea.Water Research,2008,42(13):3285- 3304.
[29] Yang X Y,Jin W.GIS-based spatial regression and prediction of water quality in river networks:a case study in Iowa.Journal of Environmental Management,2010,91(10):1943- 1951.
[30] 于磊,赵彦伟,汪思慧,田竹君.不同时空尺度下流域景观格局与水质的相关性研究——以嫩江右岸典型子流域为例.水土保持通报,2011,31(5):254- 258.
[31] 任斐鹏,江源,熊兴,董满宇,王博.东江流域近20年土地利用变化的时空差异特征分析.资源科学,2011,33(1):143- 152.
[32] McGarigal K,Cushman S A,Ene E.FRAGSTATS v4:spatial pattern analysis program for categorical and continuous maps.Computer Software Program Produced by the Authors at the University of Massachusetts,Amherst.[2017-08- 25].http://www.umass.edu/landeco/research/fragstats/fragstats.html.
[33] USDA NRCS.Part 630 Hydrology National Engineering Handbook,Chapter 7,Hydrologic Soil Groups.Washington D C,U.S.:Department of Agriculture,Natural Resources Conservation Service,2009.
[34] 吕乐婷,彭秋志,郭媛媛,刘颖慧,江源.基于SWAT模型的东江流域径流模拟.自然资源学报,2014,29(10):1746- 1757.
[35] 何洪林,于贵瑞,牛栋.复杂地形条件下的太阳资源辐射计算方法研究.资源科学,2003,25(1):78- 85.
[36] Fu P,Rich P M.A geometric solar radiation model with applications in agriculture and forestry.Computers and Electronics in Agriculture,2002,37(1- 3):25- 35.
[37] Koenker R.A note on studentizing a test for heteroscedasticity.Journal of Econometrics,1981,17(1):107- 112.
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