未来气候变化情景下横断山北部灾害易发区极端降水时空特征
|
摘要
极端降水是导致气候变化下滑坡、泥石流等山地灾害变化的重要因素。极端降水的时空特征作为气候变化下山地灾害风险的研究热点之一,为滑坡等山地灾害危险性评价和构建山地社会安全空间奠定了重要基础。尤其对于地形复杂、灾害频发的横断山地区,高精度的极端降水时空特征研究有利于优化国土空间,促进当地减轻灾害风险与加强气候变化适应相结合。本研究以横断山北部岷山、邛崃山和大雪山为例,充分考虑区域复杂地形的影响,在全球气候模式降水数据的基础上,采用统计降尺度的方法,获取该区域2010—2060时段的逐日降水数据(空间分辨率1×1 km);并充分考虑极端降水可能对物理事件造成的影响,构建包括绝对量指数、频度指数和强度指数的极端降水评价指标体系。研究结果表明,未来气候变化下,研究区极端降水总体呈现增加—减少—增加的趋势,短时极端降水和持续性极端降水的空间分布相对一致。就短时极端降水而言,大部分区域发生50 mm以上极端降水事件的次数较多,而研究区中部邛崃山区甚至会发生超过100 mm的极端降水事件。持续性事件的分布受地形阻隔作用影响,主要发生在大雪山高山区域和邛崃山区。结合研究区地理环境条件,地质灾害风险在未来气候变化情景下可能增加。
Extreme precipitation may lead to various mountain hazards. Hence mountainous regions are faced with more uncertainties posed by a changing climate. In order to reduce the adverse impact of extreme precipitation and relevant mountain hazards, it is of vital importance to characterize the spatial-temporal distribution of extreme precipitation for the future. Many studies have analyzed the holistic distribution for future climate scenarios. However, there is still a lack of detailed information to depict daily extreme precipitation, which establishes the foundation for hazard dynamic analysis in specific locations.In this study, the recently released climate projection data were statistically downscaled by historical data from 50 local meteorology stations in and around the study area over the period 1981-2010. Based on the downscaled NEX-GDDP daily precipitation over the period 2010-2060, spatiotemporal patterns of extreme precipitation from three perspectives including intensity, frequency and duration had been analyzed for the disaster-prone area in the north Hengduan Mountains with spatial resolution 1×1 km. Results showed that the total precipitation tended to fluctuate greatly and regional variation existed in the study area. It's worth noting that both the frequency and spatial range of extreme precipitation presented a significant increasing trend in the RCP 4.5 scenario. Regarding duration index, the spatial patterns of short-term extreme precipitation were consistent with that of long-duration extreme precipitation except for the Min Mountains. For short-term extreme precipitation, rainstorms(≥50 mm) occurred more frequently in most of the study area while heavy rainstorms(≥100 mm) were projected to occur mainly in the Qionglai Mountains. In terms of long-duration extreme precipitation, the occurrence frequency was higher in alpine regions of the Qionglai Mountains and the Daxue Mountains, as well as the transition zones from mountain to plain, which may be caused by the passing-obstructing effect of terrain complexity. Moreover,extreme precipitations on the link with the distribution of local slope factors showed higher frequency in steep convex slope than concave slope, which was also confirming the similar local topography effect.
Extreme precipitation may lead to various mountain hazards. Hence mountainous regions are faced with more uncertainties posed by a changing climate. In order to reduce the adverse impact of extreme precipitation and relevant mountain hazards, it is of vital importance to characterize the spatial-temporal distribution of extreme precipitation for the future. Many studies have analyzed the holistic distribution for future climate scenarios. However, there is still a lack of detailed information to depict daily extreme precipitation, which establishes the foundation for hazard dynamic analysis in specific locations.In this study, the recently released climate projection data were statistically downscaled by historical data from 50 local meteorology stations in and around the study area over the period 1981-2010. Based on the downscaled NEX-GDDP daily precipitation over the period 2010-2060, spatiotemporal patterns of extreme precipitation from three perspectives including intensity, frequency and duration had been analyzed for the disaster-prone area in the north Hengduan Mountains with spatial resolution 1×1 km. Results showed that the total precipitation tended to fluctuate greatly and regional variation existed in the study area. It's worth noting that both the frequency and spatial range of extreme precipitation presented a significant increasing trend in the RCP 4.5 scenario. Regarding duration index, the spatial patterns of short-term extreme precipitation were consistent with that of long-duration extreme precipitation except for the Min Mountains. For short-term extreme precipitation, rainstorms(≥50 mm) occurred more frequently in most of the study area while heavy rainstorms(≥100 mm) were projected to occur mainly in the Qionglai Mountains. In terms of long-duration extreme precipitation, the occurrence frequency was higher in alpine regions of the Qionglai Mountains and the Daxue Mountains, as well as the transition zones from mountain to plain, which may be caused by the passing-obstructing effect of terrain complexity. Moreover,extreme precipitations on the link with the distribution of local slope factors showed higher frequency in steep convex slope than concave slope, which was also confirming the similar local topography effect.
引文
[1] GUZZETTI F,PERUCCACCI S,ROSSI M,et al.The rainfall intensity-duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows:an update[J].Landslides,2008,5(1):3-17.
[2] ALLAN R P,SODEN B J.Atmospheric warming and the amplification of precipitation extremes[J].Science,2008,321(5895):1481.
[3] FIELD C B,BARROS V R,MACH K,et al.Climate change 2014:impacts,adaptation,and vulnerability[J].Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report,2014,19(2):81-111.
[4] AINUDDIN S,ROUTRAY J K,AINUDDIN S.People’s risk perception in earthquake prone Quetta city of Baluchistan[J].International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,2014,7:165-175.
[5] 高杨,李滨,冯振,等.全球气候变化与地质灾害响应分析[J].地质力学学报,2017,23(1):65-77.[GAO Yang,LI Bin,FENG Zhen,et al.Global climate change and geological disaster response analysis[J].Journal of Geomechanics,2017,23(1):65-77]
[6] 迟潇潇,尹占娥,王轩,等.我国极端降水阈值确定方法的对比研究[J].灾害学,2015,30(3):186-190.[CHI Xiaoxiao,YIN Zhan’e,WANG Xuan,et al.A comparison of methods for benchmarking the threshold of daily precipitation extremes in China[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2015,30(3):186-190]
[7] 韦方强,徐晶,江玉红,等.不同时空尺度的泥石流预报技术体系[J].山地学报,2007,25(5):616-621.[WEI Fangqiang,XU Jing,JIANG Yuhong,et al.The System of debris flow prediction with different time and space scales[J].Mountain Research,2007,25(5):616-621]
[8] 铁永波,唐川.汶川县城泥石流灾害风险评价研究[J].灾害学,2010,25(04):43-47.[TIE Yongbo,TANG Chuan.Assessment of Wenchuan debris-flow risk[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2010,25(04):43-47]
[9] ZHAI Panmao,ZHANG Xuebin,WAN Hui,et al.Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China[J].Journal of Climate,2005,18(18):1096-1108.
[10] RHODES R I,SHAFFREY C,GRAY S L.Can reanalyses represent extreme precipitation over England and Wales?[J].Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,2015,141(689):1114-1120.
[11] 尹占娥,田鹏飞,迟潇潇.基于情景的1951—2011年中国极端降水风险评估[J].地理学报,2018,73(3):405-413.[YIN Zhan’e,TIAN Pengfei,CHI Xiaoxiao.Multi-scenario-based risk analysis of precipitation extremesin China during the past 60 years (1951-2011)[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2018,73(3):405-413]
[12] 江志红,陈威霖,宋洁,等.7个IPCC AR4模式对中国地区极端降水指数模拟能力的评估及其未来情景预估[J].大气科学,2009,33(1):109-120.[JIANG Zhihong,CHEN Weilin,SONG Jie,et al.Projection and evaluation of the precipitation extremes indices over China based on seven IPCC AR4 coupled climate models[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2009,33(1):109-120]
[13] 周莉,兰明才,蔡荣辉,等.21世纪前期长江中下游流域极端降水预估及不确定性分析[J].气象学报,2018,76(1):47-61.[ZHOU Li,LAN Mingcai,CAI Ronghui,et al.Projection and uncertainties of extreme precipitation over the Yangtze River valley in the early 21stcentry [J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2018,76(1):47-61]
[14] PIANI C,HAERTER J O,COPPOLA E.Statistical bias correction for daily precipitation in regional climate models over Europe [J].Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2010,99(1):187-192.
[15] THRASHER B,MAURER E,MCKELLAR C,et al.Technical Note:bias correcting climate model simulated daily temperature extremes with quantile mapping [J].Hydrology & Earth System Sciences,2012,16(9):3309-3314.
[16] HOLLAND G,DONE J,BRUYERE C,et al.Model investigations of the effects of climate variability and change on future Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclone activity[C]//In:Offshore Technology Conference[C].Houston:Offshore Technology Conference,2010.
[17] 胡豪然,毛晓亮,梁玲.近50年四川盆地汛期极端降水事件的时空演变[J].地理学报,2009,64(3):278-288.[HU Haoran,MAO Xiaoliang,LIANG Ling.Temporal and spatial variations of extreme precipitation events of flood season over Sichuan Basin in last 50 years[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2009,64(3):278-288]
[18] 周长艳,岑思弦,李跃清,等.四川省近50年降水的变化特征及影响[J].地理学报,2011,66(5):619-630.[ZHOU Changyan,CEN Sixuan,LI Yueqing,et al.Precipitation variation and Its impacts in Sichuan in the last 50 years[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2011,66(5):619-630]
[19] YUAN Zhe,YANG Zhiyong,YAN Denghua,et al.Historical changes and future projection of extreme precipitation in China[J].Theoretical & Applied Climatology,2015:1-15.
[20] 何干皓,李龙国,刘铁刚,等.岷江流域降水极值概率分布研究[J].何干皓,李龙国,刘铁刚,等.岷江流域降水极值概率分布研究[J].工程科学与技术,2017,49(1):78-85.[HE Ganhao,LI Longguo,LIU Tiegang,et al.Research on probability distribution of precipitation extremes in the Minjiang River Basin[J].Advanced Engineering Sciences,2017,49(1):78-85]
[21] 唐川.汶川地震区暴雨滑坡泥石流活动趋势预测[J].山地学报,2010,28(3):341-349.[TANG Chuan.Activity tendency prediction of rainfall induced landslides and debris flows in the Wenchuan Earthquake areas[J].Mountain Research,2010,28(3):341-349]
[22] XU Mengzhen,WANG Zhaoyin,QI Lijian,et al.Disaster chains initiated by the Wenchuan earthquake[J].Journal of Mountain Science,2012,65(4):975-985.
[23] GUO Xiaojun,CUI Peng,LI Yong,et al.Intensity-duration threshold of rainfall-trigered debris flows in the Wenchuan earthquake affected area,China[J].Geomorphology,2016,253:208-216.
[24] 倪化勇,李宗亮,巴仁基,等.贡嘎山东坡磨西河流域泥石流暴发的临界雨量值初探[J].山地学报,2007,25(6):721-728.[NI Huayong,LI Zongliang,BA Renji,et al.Preliminary study on the critical rainfall condition of debris flows along Moxi River in the east slopes of the Mount Gongga[J].Mountain Research,2007,25(6):721-728]
[25] 崔鹏,庄建琦,陈兴长,等.汶川地震区震后泥石流活动特征与防治对策[J].四川大学学报(工程科学版),2010,42(5):10-19.[CUI Peng,ZHUANG Jianqi,CHEN Xingchang,et al.Characteristics and countermeasures of debris flow in Wenchuan area after the Earthquake[J].Journal of Sichuan University (Engineering Sciences Edition),2010,42(5):10-19]
[26] DOWLING C A,SANTIPAUL M.Debris flows and their toll on human life:a global analysis of debris-flow fatalities from 1950 to 2011[J].Natural Hazards,2014,71(1) :203-227.
[27] 陈勇,谭燕,茆长宝.山地自然灾害、风险管理与避灾扶贫移民搬迁[J].灾害学,2013,28(2):136-142.[CHEN Yong,TAN Yan,MAO Changbao.Mountain hazards,risk management,disaster-preventive and poverty-alleviating resettlement[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2013,28(2):136-142]
[28] 杜华明,贺胜英.岷江流域降水特征与旱涝灾害趋势分析[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(1):153-157.[DU Huaming,HE Shengying.The analysis on characteristics of precipitation and trends in drought and flood disasters in Minjiang River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,22(1):153-157]
[2] ALLAN R P,SODEN B J.Atmospheric warming and the amplification of precipitation extremes[J].Science,2008,321(5895):1481.
[3] FIELD C B,BARROS V R,MACH K,et al.Climate change 2014:impacts,adaptation,and vulnerability[J].Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report,2014,19(2):81-111.
[4] AINUDDIN S,ROUTRAY J K,AINUDDIN S.People’s risk perception in earthquake prone Quetta city of Baluchistan[J].International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,2014,7:165-175.
[5] 高杨,李滨,冯振,等.全球气候变化与地质灾害响应分析[J].地质力学学报,2017,23(1):65-77.[GAO Yang,LI Bin,FENG Zhen,et al.Global climate change and geological disaster response analysis[J].Journal of Geomechanics,2017,23(1):65-77]
[6] 迟潇潇,尹占娥,王轩,等.我国极端降水阈值确定方法的对比研究[J].灾害学,2015,30(3):186-190.[CHI Xiaoxiao,YIN Zhan’e,WANG Xuan,et al.A comparison of methods for benchmarking the threshold of daily precipitation extremes in China[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2015,30(3):186-190]
[7] 韦方强,徐晶,江玉红,等.不同时空尺度的泥石流预报技术体系[J].山地学报,2007,25(5):616-621.[WEI Fangqiang,XU Jing,JIANG Yuhong,et al.The System of debris flow prediction with different time and space scales[J].Mountain Research,2007,25(5):616-621]
[8] 铁永波,唐川.汶川县城泥石流灾害风险评价研究[J].灾害学,2010,25(04):43-47.[TIE Yongbo,TANG Chuan.Assessment of Wenchuan debris-flow risk[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2010,25(04):43-47]
[9] ZHAI Panmao,ZHANG Xuebin,WAN Hui,et al.Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China[J].Journal of Climate,2005,18(18):1096-1108.
[10] RHODES R I,SHAFFREY C,GRAY S L.Can reanalyses represent extreme precipitation over England and Wales?[J].Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,2015,141(689):1114-1120.
[11] 尹占娥,田鹏飞,迟潇潇.基于情景的1951—2011年中国极端降水风险评估[J].地理学报,2018,73(3):405-413.[YIN Zhan’e,TIAN Pengfei,CHI Xiaoxiao.Multi-scenario-based risk analysis of precipitation extremesin China during the past 60 years (1951-2011)[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2018,73(3):405-413]
[12] 江志红,陈威霖,宋洁,等.7个IPCC AR4模式对中国地区极端降水指数模拟能力的评估及其未来情景预估[J].大气科学,2009,33(1):109-120.[JIANG Zhihong,CHEN Weilin,SONG Jie,et al.Projection and evaluation of the precipitation extremes indices over China based on seven IPCC AR4 coupled climate models[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2009,33(1):109-120]
[13] 周莉,兰明才,蔡荣辉,等.21世纪前期长江中下游流域极端降水预估及不确定性分析[J].气象学报,2018,76(1):47-61.[ZHOU Li,LAN Mingcai,CAI Ronghui,et al.Projection and uncertainties of extreme precipitation over the Yangtze River valley in the early 21stcentry [J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2018,76(1):47-61]
[14] PIANI C,HAERTER J O,COPPOLA E.Statistical bias correction for daily precipitation in regional climate models over Europe [J].Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2010,99(1):187-192.
[15] THRASHER B,MAURER E,MCKELLAR C,et al.Technical Note:bias correcting climate model simulated daily temperature extremes with quantile mapping [J].Hydrology & Earth System Sciences,2012,16(9):3309-3314.
[16] HOLLAND G,DONE J,BRUYERE C,et al.Model investigations of the effects of climate variability and change on future Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclone activity[C]//In:Offshore Technology Conference[C].Houston:Offshore Technology Conference,2010.
[17] 胡豪然,毛晓亮,梁玲.近50年四川盆地汛期极端降水事件的时空演变[J].地理学报,2009,64(3):278-288.[HU Haoran,MAO Xiaoliang,LIANG Ling.Temporal and spatial variations of extreme precipitation events of flood season over Sichuan Basin in last 50 years[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2009,64(3):278-288]
[18] 周长艳,岑思弦,李跃清,等.四川省近50年降水的变化特征及影响[J].地理学报,2011,66(5):619-630.[ZHOU Changyan,CEN Sixuan,LI Yueqing,et al.Precipitation variation and Its impacts in Sichuan in the last 50 years[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2011,66(5):619-630]
[19] YUAN Zhe,YANG Zhiyong,YAN Denghua,et al.Historical changes and future projection of extreme precipitation in China[J].Theoretical & Applied Climatology,2015:1-15.
[20] 何干皓,李龙国,刘铁刚,等.岷江流域降水极值概率分布研究[J].何干皓,李龙国,刘铁刚,等.岷江流域降水极值概率分布研究[J].工程科学与技术,2017,49(1):78-85.[HE Ganhao,LI Longguo,LIU Tiegang,et al.Research on probability distribution of precipitation extremes in the Minjiang River Basin[J].Advanced Engineering Sciences,2017,49(1):78-85]
[21] 唐川.汶川地震区暴雨滑坡泥石流活动趋势预测[J].山地学报,2010,28(3):341-349.[TANG Chuan.Activity tendency prediction of rainfall induced landslides and debris flows in the Wenchuan Earthquake areas[J].Mountain Research,2010,28(3):341-349]
[22] XU Mengzhen,WANG Zhaoyin,QI Lijian,et al.Disaster chains initiated by the Wenchuan earthquake[J].Journal of Mountain Science,2012,65(4):975-985.
[23] GUO Xiaojun,CUI Peng,LI Yong,et al.Intensity-duration threshold of rainfall-trigered debris flows in the Wenchuan earthquake affected area,China[J].Geomorphology,2016,253:208-216.
[24] 倪化勇,李宗亮,巴仁基,等.贡嘎山东坡磨西河流域泥石流暴发的临界雨量值初探[J].山地学报,2007,25(6):721-728.[NI Huayong,LI Zongliang,BA Renji,et al.Preliminary study on the critical rainfall condition of debris flows along Moxi River in the east slopes of the Mount Gongga[J].Mountain Research,2007,25(6):721-728]
[25] 崔鹏,庄建琦,陈兴长,等.汶川地震区震后泥石流活动特征与防治对策[J].四川大学学报(工程科学版),2010,42(5):10-19.[CUI Peng,ZHUANG Jianqi,CHEN Xingchang,et al.Characteristics and countermeasures of debris flow in Wenchuan area after the Earthquake[J].Journal of Sichuan University (Engineering Sciences Edition),2010,42(5):10-19]
[26] DOWLING C A,SANTIPAUL M.Debris flows and their toll on human life:a global analysis of debris-flow fatalities from 1950 to 2011[J].Natural Hazards,2014,71(1) :203-227.
[27] 陈勇,谭燕,茆长宝.山地自然灾害、风险管理与避灾扶贫移民搬迁[J].灾害学,2013,28(2):136-142.[CHEN Yong,TAN Yan,MAO Changbao.Mountain hazards,risk management,disaster-preventive and poverty-alleviating resettlement[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2013,28(2):136-142]
[28] 杜华明,贺胜英.岷江流域降水特征与旱涝灾害趋势分析[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(1):153-157.[DU Huaming,HE Shengying.The analysis on characteristics of precipitation and trends in drought and flood disasters in Minjiang River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,22(1):153-157]
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |